NFL HalfTime Middling System

[Sandwich]

The NFL halftime 'middling' system was introduced by On3 and is NOT my system. I'm starting a new thread in order to not clog up the JM NFL thread. If anyone would like to take the reins and keep an official record that would be preferable, because I don't have time to post very often. The system also needs to be backtested if anyone would be willing to take the plunge on that monster. Thanks again On3 for sharing the system. Let's try and keep the discussion solely in this thread.

while we are waiting around, ive been keeping an eye out for a system that a few friends of mine use. i havent backtested it myself, but i take it on good faith that they are not misleading me of the success rate being around 66%.

the record of it so far this year is 7-1, and is not a chase system, but a half time 'middling' system, in which it fades the middle opportunity that half time lines provide. the line has to have a 13 point middle or more for it to be eligible.

example: yesterdays TNF game bears/packers o/u of 51 spread of -5. half time score was 13-0 packers. if the line stayed true, we would see a half time o/u of 38 and bears favored by -8. the line was o/u of 24 and packers -1.5. the o/u has a 14 point middle (eligible for a play) and the spread has a 9.5 middle (not eligible). since we fade the middle (saying that the middle WILL NOT occur) we take UNDER 24 as our half time bet.

i will not be tracking this, but i thought some of you might find it helpful.

few more examples:

denver/pitt game: original line DEN -2.5 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 10-7 Steelers leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: DEN -5.5 o/u 28.5
actual halftime line: DEN PK and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Steelers -3 to Den -2.5 ONLY 5.5 diff. the o/u middle is now 38.5 to 45.5 ONLY 7 diff.).

differential for spread is 5.5 and differential for o/u is 7. both are not eligible and no play is made.

carolina/tampa bay game: original line CAR -3 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 13-0 Bucs leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: CAR -16 o/u 32.5
actual halftime line: CAR -3 and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Bucs -10 to Car -3, 13pt diff. the o/u middle is now 34.5 to 45.5, 11pt diff.).

the system is saying that this middle WILL NOT occur, and the only way for that to happen is if the Bucs cover the +3 in the 2h.

differential for spread is 13 and differential for o/u is 11. spread is eligible, o/u is not and one play is made. the play was Bucs +3 2h (this play was the only loser last week using the system).

System went 6-1 in week 1. and 1-0 on the Thursday night game.

[DustyDiamond]

I'm having a hard time grasping this concept. Not sure how on3 comes up with what the half time lines should be, for example in the Carolina/Tampa game, Bucs were up 13-0, why should the line be CAR -16. I understand how the o/u work. I hope someone posts the plays so I can see and learn this method. Thanks.

[SparJMU]

The long explanation in post 1 is a very long winded way, and unnecessarily complicated way of saying that if a full game spread proves to be very wrong through the first two quarters, fade the full game spread in the second half as well.

Example, the Packers/Bears game was supposed to reach a total of 51. It became evident through the first half that this would be a low scoring game, therefore bet Under in the second half. The original poster is using the number 13 as his threshold, which I am guessing is just an arbitrary number.

This "system" may actually work, but for different reasons than the original poster intends.

[on3]

I'm having a hard time grasping this concept. Not sure how on3 comes up with what the half time lines should be, for example in the Carolina/Tampa game, Bucs were up 13-0, why should the line be CAR -16. I understand how the o/u work. I hope someone posts the plays so I can see and learn this method. Thanks.

Carolina was originally favored by 3. They were down by 13 at halftime. To cover the original spread they have to be -16 at the half in this example.

[jmaldonado]

Thanks to on3 for sharing, and thanks to Sandwich for starting the thread!

[on3]

i will post the halftime play (or no play) tomorrow w/ explanation in this thread to make sure everyone understands it.

[DustyDiamond]

Thanks on3 for all the help!

[nrok2118]

So it appears this game has a good chance of a play...bumping this up cause I'm still having trouble understanding, but I would think (depending on the line) we will make a play on the giants

[on3]

Original Line: o/u 48 and CAR -3
Halftime Score: NYG 20-0
Halftime Line: CAR -4 and o/u 23.5
New Line: CAR +16 (19 point middle with CAR -3) o/u 43.5 (4.5 point middle)

Since we are going against the middle, the play is:

NYG +4

[dlunc3]

on3, has this theory been used more then just this year do you know?

[playr101]

Interesting idea... I will be paying attn....

thx on3

-playr101

[on3]

here are the numbers from 2010 that user 'orionshadow' did on co vers . com

Greater than
9 pt diff: 99-96 51%
10 pt diff: 91-80 53%
11 pt diff: 82-68 55%
12 pt diff: 77-58 57%
13 pt diff: 70-39 64%
14 pt diff: 62-36 63%

[on3]

he is in the process of backtesting other years as well.

[nrok2118]

Original Line: o/u 48 and CAR -3
Halftime Score: NYG 20-0
Halftime Line: CAR -4 and o/u 23.5
New Line: CAR +16 (19 point middle with CAR -3) o/u 43.5 (4.5 point middle)

Since we are going against the middle, the play is:

NYG +4

Shit! My book had it at 3.5 with +105 on the Giants. I was hoping it would go to 4 but they took it off the board...lame! Sure to win now that I missed out on it

[on3]

delete

[on3]

Shit! My book had it at 3.5 with +105 on the Giants. I was hoping it would go to 4 but they took it off the board...lame! Sure to win now that I missed out on it

+3.5 is still a play.

[on3]

hopefully everyone has a grasp of the system. i will NOT be updating this thread during halftimes of sundays games, so please address any and all questions before then.

also, if Sandwich or someone else who has a grasp of the system can post, this thread can be a benefit to all.

thank you.

[nrok2118]

+3.5 is still a play.

Yeah I just figured since it was heavily juiced they would move the line to 4 which I liked a lot better. Forgot these halftimes arent so long, especially compared to college. O well.

[nrok2118]

Original Line: o/u 48 and CAR -3
Halftime Score: NYG 20-0
Halftime Line: CAR -4 and o/u 23.5
New Line: CAR +16 (19 point middle with CAR -3) o/u 43.5 (4.5 point middle)

Since we are going against the middle, the play is:

NYG +4

Ok I thought I had it but this confused me. Where does the CAR +16 come from? I thought of it as the true HT line should be Car -23 which gets you the 19 point middle from the actual HT line of -4.

I know your probably frustrated with all the questions, but its pissing me off cause I love numbers but for some reason, whether it be wording or Im just missing something, Im struggling with this.


Edit****
I see, now. Your "new" line is the adjusted complete game line factored from the current score and halftime line.

[on3]

Ok I thought I had it but this confused me. Where does the CAR +16 come from? I thought of it as the true HT line should be Car -23 which gets you the 19 point middle from the actual HT line of -4.

I know your probably frustrated with all the questions, but its pissing me off cause I love numbers but for some reason, whether it be wording or Im just missing something, Im struggling with this.


Edit****
I see, now. Your "new" line is the adjusted complete game line factored from the current score and halftime line.

23 - 4 = 19
16 + 3 = 19

which ever way you get to it doesnt matter.

[PlayTheSpread]

delete

[milwaukee mike]

will this thread continue to be updated?

it's an interesting strategy, barring a complete miracle it worked again tonight

[on3]

thank you Tom Coughlin for that FG, i had an over 41 teaser still on the line.

NYG +4 is a winner. Hopefully some of you made a couple bucks today.

[SparJMU]

Guys, guys, guys, please read my earlier post. This is not a system. All this idea is saying is "If a side/total is significantly different then the original spread, then the spread was wrong, and fade it". This is not rocket science, and it's not a ground breaking system. It's common sense.

[milwaukee mike]

Guys, guys, guys, please read my earlier post. This is not a system. All this idea is saying is "If a side/total is significantly different then the original spread, then the spread was wrong, and fade it". This is not rocket science, and it's not a ground breaking system. It's common sense.

of course it's not rocket science. but it's still a system. because inherent in that 2nd half line is a huge overweight to the side that was given too much credit in the first place.
and in the nfl 2nd half comebacks aren't nearly as commonplace as people think.

[PlayTheSpread]

carolina/tampa bay game: original line CAR -3 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 13-0 Bucs leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: CAR -16 o/u 32.5
actual halftime line: CAR -3 and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Bucs -10 to Car -3, 13pt diff. the o/u middle is now 34.5 to 45.5, 11pt diff.).

the system is saying that this middle WILL NOT occur, and the only way for that to happen is if the Bucs cover the +3 in the 2h.

differential for spread is 13 and differential for o/u is 11. spread is eligible, o/u is not and one play is made. the play was Bucs +3 2h (this play was the only loser last week using the system).

Sorry for another question but shouldn't the O/U middle in this example be 32.5 to 45.5, 13 pt diff?

[on3]

Sorry for another question but shouldn't the O/U middle in this example be 32.5 to 45.5, 13 pt diff?

32.5 is what the line SHOULD have been if the original line held true. the actual halftime line was 21.5. difference of 11.

[Sandwich]

If I see a play, I will do my best to post it during halftime. But no guarantees.
I will crunch the actual numbers with a few google documents I made, but here is an easy guideline to go by in case you're confused.

If you can determine whether the play is eligible or not, I.E. middle points are equal to or more than 13; then,

1. if 1st half was extremely under, bet on the 2nd half under
2. if 1st half was extremely over, bet on the 2nd half over
3. if favored team is winning by substantially more than they should be, bet on original favorite
4. if favored team is losing by substantially more than they should be, bet on original underdog

When I say "extremely" or "substantially," this really just means that the middle points are equal to or over 13, which makes it qualify for a play.



-- to determine the middle points --

Take example:
original line CAR -3 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 13-0 Bucs leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: CAR -16 o/u 32.5
actual halftime line: CAR -3 and o/u 21.5

1. Carolina (favorite) was picked by -3
2. At half time, Carolina was losing by 13 points, which means that Carolina would need to score 16 points (13 + original 3) in order for the line to be accurate
3. The halftime line comes out at CAR -3, you can immediately tell that -3 and -16 are significantly off. 13 middle point difference
4. 13 points or more qualifies it for a play

Should be halftime line - Actual halftime line = Middle points
-16 -(-3) = [-13] or 13 points

[alexknyc]

-- to determine the middle points --

Take example:
original line CAR -3 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 13-0 Bucs leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: CAR -16 o/u 32.5
actual halftime line: CAR -3 and o/u 21.5

1. Carolina (favorite) was picked by -3
2. At half time, Carolina was losing by 13 points, which means that Carolina would need to score 16 points (13 + original 3) in order for the line to be accurate
3. The halftime line comes out at CAR -3, you can immediately tell that -3 and -16 are significantly off. 13 middle point difference
4. 13 points or more qualifies it for a play

Should be halftime line - Actual halftime line = Middle points
-16 -(-3) = [-13] or 13 points

OK... but what would the halftime bet be in this situation?

Maybe I'm just an idiot, but I'm not getting this.

[milwaukee mike]

OK... but what would the halftime bet be in this situation?

Maybe I'm just an idiot, but I'm not getting this.

Halftime bet in that example would be bucs +3. Last night halftime bet would be take giants +4

Rationale being that carolina last night was given too much credit to start the game, and given too much credit on the halftime line

[PlayTheSpread]

Ok...I've created a spreadsheet in Excel to calculate this. Going to backtest a few games and see what I come up with. My only question is do we only make a play on 13 pt differences or higher?

[Sandwich]

Ok...I've created a spreadsheet in Excel to calculate this. Going to backtest a few games and see what I come up with. My only question is do we only make a play on 13 pt differences or higher?

On3 provided evidence that if the middle points were 13 or greater than the winning percentage also increases.

I am personally only going to play games that qualify with 13 or higher.

[mgt_3]

Here's a senario from yesterday, can you tell me what would of been the right play, OVER or UNDER?(im only gonna focus on the OVER/UNDER here cause it was a HUGE middle.)

ARZ@ORE
The over/under line was set at 79 for the game.
Halftime score was 13-0.
2nd Half line was set at o/u 34
So the new projected total game line is =47 (2ndHalf line 34+13 total Halftime score)
So 79-47= 32 pt middle ( system say the middle will NOT occur, therefore FADE, correct?)
Now at this point what tells you if you need to take the OVER or UNDER 2nd Half, how do you know what side to fade.
I took the OVER 34 2nd half, good thing it hit but i think the right play was the UNDER, Correct?

THX!

[on3]

Here's a senario from yesterday, can you tell me what would of been the right play, OVER or UNDER?(im only gonna focus on the OVER/UNDER here cause it was a HUGE middle.)

ARZ@ORE
The over/under line was set at 79 for the game.
Halftime score was 13-0.
2nd Half line was set at o/u 34
So the new projected total game line is =47 (2ndHalf line 34+13 total Halftime score)
So 79-47= 32 pt middle ( system say the middle will NOT occur, therefore FADE, correct?)
Now at this point what tells you if you need to take the OVER or UNDER 2nd Half, how do you know what side to fade.
I took the OVER 34 2nd half, good thing it hit but i think the right play was the UNDER, Correct?

THX!

correct. the system says to take the under. but unfortunately, youre playing the wrong sport because the system is for NFL, not NCAAF.

[milwaukee mike]

yeah i don't think the system would apply as favorably to ncaa. way too many crazy comebacks and high scoring 2nd halves.

i have another system for ncaa/nfl 2nd halves that if i see a +7.5, especially in the nfl, i take it.
with the limited amount of scoring in a typical nfl 2nd half, that hook makes a ton of difference, and i have hit a huge % on those.