NFL HalfTime Middling System

[playr101]

Schiman from across the street ran some figures from 2009 (816) games..... here is what he posted.

Here's the table again:
Team W % Total W%
7 58.5% 47.0%
8 60.3% 46.8%
9 59.9% 47.0%
10 59.8% 48.0%
11 59.5% 47.3%
12 60.3% 50.0%
13 63.0% 55.5%
14 58.7% 55.0%
15 57.5% 53.8%
16 64.0% 54.9%
17 65.6% 57.1%
18 68.6% 57.7%
19 66.7% 59.5%
20 64.5% 61.1%
21 56.5% 65.6%
22 52.9% 63.2%

-playr101

[tr4sh]

Hey guys, I made a spreadsheet which made it slight more clear for me than the one above. Hope it helps someone out.

HalftimeMiddle.xlsx

[Catchn_Picks]

thanks tr...do know if it works on a mac...if not I have a PC laptop.

[Catchn_Picks]

Schiman from across the street ran some figures from 2009 (816) games..... here is what he posted.

Here's the table again:
Team W % Total W%
7 58.5% 47.0%
8 60.3% 46.8%
9 59.9% 47.0%
10 59.8% 48.0%
11 59.5% 47.3%
12 60.3% 50.0%
13 63.0% 55.5%
14 58.7% 55.0%
15 57.5% 53.8%
16 64.0% 54.9%
17 65.6% 57.1%
18 68.6% 57.7%
19 66.7% 59.5%
20 64.5% 61.1%
21 56.5% 65.6%
22 52.9% 63.2%

-playr101

Well, based upon these numbers, the number 13 is truly significant. On the earlier numbers from 2010, the number 12 has some value because they add many more plays at 57%...I can wait to get Andy's (or others) back testing results.

[ramones951]

Middled last night's game. I've been experimenting with this a lot this season.

Pats +2.5
Ravens +3 (live)

[GuinnessDrinka]

i wonder how many games actually get to the 13 or above

[luckybet]

I assume any over 13 will be either for under dog and Over. Under 13 will be for Fav and Under

[ramones951]

11.5 point middle available if you took u46 pregame ....I did and I'm passing

[ramones951]

14.5 point middle

[nrok2118]

11.5 point middle available if you took u46 pregame ....I did and I'm passing

14.5 point middle

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Nah man we're not trying to middle. Point of this thread is a "system" where you fade the idea of middling...not actually middling

[Catchn_Picks]

Middled last night's game. I've been experimenting with this a lot this season.

Pats +2.5
Ravens +3 (live)

Nice middle...bet you were sweating your butt off in the 4th quarter...lol

[Catchn_Picks]

i wonder how many games actually get to the 13 or above

Can't wait to get the data. It should be interesting to analyze.

Assuming the rest of the half is very low scoring, I would think that the books would overcompensate the line with a high over 2nd half line (Like 27.5, maybe). If so, I would think we would have a chance at the 2nd half under play.

[Mw1264]

what we lookin at for the play

[playr101]

its not halftime yet

-playr101

[on3]

under 21

[playr101]

Under 21...

-playr101

[nrok2118]

Under is indeed the play


BOL everyone

[DustyDiamond]

Damn, does SBR not offer Halftime lines in their sportsbook?

[BALISTIK]

thanks for the work guys...i'm tailing! good luck everyone.

[nrok2118]

Damn jumped on it quick at -120, down to -105 already...people must be pounding the over...not sure what game they watched

[PlayTheSpread]

Let's get it!!

[nrok2118]

This bet does scare me though, this weekend had a lot of crazy finishes.

[PlayTheSpread]

This bet does scare me though, this weekend had a lot of crazy finishes.

Every NFL bet has scared me this year

[Catchn_Picks]

waiting to see if I can get u 21.5

[GuinnessDrinka]

took the u21 -110

gl

[Catchn_Picks]

nope...stayed at 21...got +105 juice tho

Let's get this thing

[DustyDiamond]

According to Covers.com 5 dimes has set their O/U at 16.5 that leaves a middle of 22. Would you bet the over or under on this?

[nrok2118]

According to Covers.com 5 dimes has set their O/U at 16.5 that leaves a middle of 22. Would you bet the over or under on this?

This is the only thing that messes with my head. Take this scenario, where the lower of a halftime total leads to a larger middle, which would "strengthen" the bet in theory (since we believe the bigger the middle the stronger the play ie:13+), but the since we fade it, the bigger the middle the worst number we get to bet.

Either way you'd still want to bet the under, even though your number sucks compared to the others

[DustyDiamond]

This is the only thing that messes with my head. Take this scenario, where the lower of a halftime total leads to a larger middle, which would "strengthen" the bet in theory (since we believe the bigger the middle the stronger the play ie:13+), but the since we fade it, the bigger the middle the worst number we get to bet.

Either way you'd still want to bet the under, even though your number sucks compared to the others

So when the Spreadsheet shows a -13 middle for the O/U you bet the over and a +13 you bet the under?

[nrok2118]

So when the Spreadsheet shows a -13 middle for the O/U you bet the over and a +13 you bet the under?

I dont follow the "spreadsheet"...but the idea is what ever happened in the first half will happen in the second. If the total is way under, bet the under in the second half...if its way over, bet the over...if one sides killing it, take them the second half.

Granted if these spreadsheets work and can at least tell you whether its a "play", than play the same trend that got you there

[playr101]

According to Covers.com 5 dimes has set their O/U at 16.5 that leaves a middle of 22. Would you bet the over or under on this?

5dimes had the line at 21, not 16.5

-playr101

[ramones951]

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Nah man we're not trying to middle. Point of this thread is a "system" where you fade the idea of middling...not actually middling

I see... Yeah I wouldn't do either method blindly, but just by watching this game it seems like under would be the play as opposed to taking the middle

[Catchn_Picks]

I dont follow the "spreadsheet"...but the idea is what ever happened in the first half will happen in the second. If the total is way under, bet the under in the second half...if its way over, bet the over...if one sides killing it, take them the second half.

Granted if these spreadsheets work and can at least tell you whether its a "play", than play the same trend that got you there

Yea, Nrok...I'm not a spread sheeter as well but that is basically theory. I look at it from a different angle too...if it does work (and that is still being looked at in depth) why does it work? If you can figure that out then you have a true + EV (expected value) angle. Something works for the right reasons.

Without a doubt the most pervasive thinking amount the majority of recreational bettors when watching the first half of a game that is abnormal is, "oh, that can't keep happening in the second half...things are going to change." And every time the big favorite comes roaring back in the second half they feel vindicated. It is a pure contrarian play. That is what fascinates me about the angle...all value mostly comes from going against the public tide.

Yesterday, the Vikes were dominating SF in the first half and led 17-3. My old way of thinking was here comes SF back to win the game. That thinking drove the line (for me) to +4.5 for Minny in the second half. I was betting against public thinking. SF outscored Minny 10-7 in the second half and I covered.

Tonight it was obvious that the public would want to see GB open it up in the second half. We are saying now that the very same illogical under trend will continue in the second half and we think we are getting some decent value at U21. I really would have liked that hook tho, (u21.5).

GO Under!

gl

[nrok2118]

Yea, Nrok...I'm not a spread sheeter as well but that is basically theory. I look at it from a different angle too...if it does work (and that is still being looked at in depth) why does it work? If you can figure that out then you have a true + EV (expected value) angle. Something works for the right reasons.

Without a doubt the most pervasive thinking amount the majority of recreational bettors when watching the first half of a game that is abnormal is, "oh, that can't keep happening in the second half...things are going to change." And every time the big favorite comes roaring back in the second half they feel vindicated. It is a pure contrarian play. That is what fascinates me about the angle...all value mostly comes from going against the public tide.

Yesterday, the Vikes were dominating SF in the first half and led 17-3. My old way of thinking was here comes SF back to win the game. That thinking drove the line (for me) to +4.5 for Minny in the second half. I was betting against public thinking. SF outscored Minny 10-7 in the second half and I covered.

Tonight it was obvious that the public would want to see GB open it up in the second half. We are saying now that the very same illogical under trend will continue in the second half and we think we are getting some decent value at U21. I really would have liked that hook tho, (u21.5).

GO Under!

gl

Yeah I think thats pretty much why it works so well. If a game is going one way, why the hell would it suddenly flip flop just because the original perception was the opposite. Also there might be something to the idea of hitting a middle. If books create this large middle for people to hit, thats very -EV on their part...and we all know books arent -EV so fade these "gifts" they give you. Almost a trap, though I hate that word in betting.


As far as this game goes, its nice to see Green Bay actually finding a running game and wearing down that clock, while Seattle has held them to FG's. Still scary if this GB run game opens up a long bomb or two for quick scores. But really, if you watched the first half why the fuk would you think there would be a lot of points scored in the second half...yet public hit the over hard it seems (juice moved -120 to EV on my book)

[nrok2118]

Wow, two point conversion could have ruined this, still one TD left

Shame I also have Seattle +3.5, this can get interesting