Columbus NHL not going above 3,000.
To clarify, detroitigerz, are you looking at Vig moves in the puckline?
To clarify, detroitigerz, are you looking at Vig moves in the puckline?
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Does not matter to me, I dont go by that.Originally posted by R19Comment -
UPDATE
Games to Watch 2/12/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
12:00pm 814 Seton Hall Pirates OPEN -1.5 NOW -2 W
1:00pm 815 Illinois Fighting Illini OPEN +5.5 NOW +5 L
1:00pm 817 St. John's Red Storm OPEN 15.5 NOW +14 W
4:00pm 835 Fairfield Stags OPEN +5 NOW +4 W
5:30pm 826 Oregon State Beavers OPEN -3 NOW -3.5
O/U:
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 1-0
NCAAB O/U YTD: 2-1
NBA
3:30pm 804 Boston Celtics OPEN +3.5 NOW +1 W
6:05pm 805 Washington Wizards OPEN +7 NOW +6
7:05pm 808 Atlanta Hawks OPEN +4.5 NOW +4
O/U:
3:30pm 803 Chicago Bulls/804 Boston Celtics OPEN 176 NOW 173 - PLAY UNDER 172 L (LAST TIME I PLAY A GAME WHEN THE SPREAD MOVES LIKE THAT)
6:05pm 805 Washington Wizards/806 Detroit Pistons OPEN 191.5 NOW 192.5 - PLAY OVER 192.5
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 2-0
NBA O/U YTD: 4-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 87-71-1 55%
NHL PK LINE: 3-0
6:05pm 58 Columbus Blue Jackets PK +1.5 OPEN -239 NOW -220
7:05pm 61 Tampa Bay Lightning PK +1.5 OPEN -165 NOW -155
7:35pm 63 Philadelphia Flyers PK +1.5 OPEN -220 NOW -200
NHL ML: 0-1Comment -
ignore this...Comment -
Forgive me, as I said earlier I am a little slow today. But... Aren't all 3 of those lines moving in the wrong direction for RLM standards? Wait yeah, isn't that actually helping them? For instance, now you only have to bet 220 to win 100 on the blue jackets game to win a hundred instead of 239?Originally posted by wiseguy007Comment -
No doubt. Bulls vs. Celtics U on sh1t list. Just because some starters are out doesn't mean it's going to score low. If anything it throws those tendencies way off.Comment -
For an RLM play that doesn't fit the official criteria, I'll be playing the Rockets later tonight. Percentages are dead even, but the line has moved a point and a half against the Rockets. There be some serious coin on Houston.Comment -
All I can say is this is how I been doing it and it is winning.Originally posted by detroitigerzComment -
me and you both. Let's cash. BOLOriginally posted by DirkDiggsComment -
Bets are basically even, 9-14 team favored vs. a 16-11 team -- why would you say that?Originally posted by DirkDiggs
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The line movement is trying to bring in bettors to Golden State.Originally posted by No coincidencesBets are basically even, 9-14 team favored vs. a 16-11 team -- why would you say that?
Why do you think the line has moved a point and a half when the number of bets are even?
...Because the wagers on Houston, while similar in number to GS, total a much larger amount of $$.
The record are irrelevant to the line movement. Statistics and location are factored into the opening line, from there betting action drives the line movement.
It's the same principle that this system is based off, but instead of uneven percentages and minor line movement, here there is even percentages and major line movement. Both really indicate the same thing.Comment -
Welp total card for the evening is this...
Flyers +1.5
Lightning +1.5
Celtics Under 172
Seton Hall -2
Wisconsin Milwaukee -2.5Comment -
I'm going to puke blood of I go 0 for on O/U's today. Oh wait, I did. Would have been up big today with no O/U's.Comment -
Looks like I'm gonna be a contrarian by betting against my home town team as well as most of ya'll on here.
Warriors -1/450
Rockets/Warriors O 203.5/450Comment -
So RLM puts up Philadelphia vs. Detroit that has won 19 straight at home. It's that good. Philadelphia covers on the puckline, but the Red Wings are one of three teams in history with 20 straight home wins.Attached FilesComment -
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2nd half: Rockets&Warriors O100.5/450Originally posted by Night-TripperComment -
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
2nd half: Jazz&Grizzlies O95.5/450Comment -
Still looking at more days, but when the public favors the dog on an NHL puckline by 62% or 63% + of the plays, the favored team on the puckline does not perform well.
Hey, this might be a way to add plays. This would simplify the NHL strategy to always choose the dog when the public is at least 63% on one side and there are at least 3,000 total plays or more.
An example is selecting the Florida Panthers today vs. the New York Islanders. 2,985 plays close enough.Comment -
What makes you say Florida would have been considered the dog in that game?Originally posted by R19Still looking at more days, but when the public favors the dog on an NHL puckline by 62% or 63% + of the plays, the favored team on the puckline does not perform well.
Hey, this might be a way to add plays. This would simplify the NHL strategy to always choose the dog when the public is at least 63% on one side and there are at least 3,000 total plays or more.
An example is selecting the Florida Panthers today vs. the New York Islanders. 2,985 plays close enough.
27-17 vs 23-24
Like it. Keep adding parameters! haha
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Can you check the approach of always receiving points on public biased pucklines no matter what side the public is on as long as they have > 63%, and there are close to or > 3,000 total plays?Originally posted by detroitigerzLike it. Keep adding parameters! haha
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If someone wants to receive an A+ in RLM System Play class, they will determine if there is correlation between winning percentage and number of scheduled games on the day for NCAAB and NBA. This would further support why some days of the week have been much more profitable than others.Comment -
Will def look into this tommorrow. Think that's a good idea, always like getting points more than giving points and RLM has in the past (IMO) done better when getting points.Originally posted by R19Comment -
If there is data to support plays that meet RLM and are favorites (giving points) not doing well in NCAAB and NBA, that would be good to know.Originally posted by detroitigerzComment -
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Originally posted by Night-TripperOriginally posted by Night-Tripper
Would rather lose by 20 than by a .5 point...Comment -
best call of nightOriginally posted by Night-TripperComment -
sorry I have been a little inactive the past few days...was in Puerto Rico filming something for Discovery Channel over the weekend...but I'm back & feeling confident this week...I'm still hitting pretty well in NHLComment -
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
agreedComment -
Laisse Faire, what do you think about the puckline plays we have been discussing?Comment -
RECORD UPDATE
Games to Watch 2/12/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then
comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
12:00pm 814 Seton Hall Pirates OPEN -1.5 NOW -2 W
1:00pm 815 Illinois Fighting Illini OPEN +5.5 NOW +5 L
1:00pm 817 St. John's Red Storm OPEN 15.5 NOW +14 W
4:00pm 835 Fairfield Stags OPEN +5 NOW +4 W
5:30pm 826 Oregon State Beavers OPEN -3 NOW -3.5 L
3-2
O/U:
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 1-0
NCAAB O/U YTD: 2-1
NBA
3:30pm 804 Boston Celtics OPEN +3.5 NOW +1 W
6:05pm 805 Washington Wizards OPEN +7 NOW +6 W
7:05pm 808 Atlanta Hawks OPEN +4.5 NOW +4 L
2-1
O/U:
3:30pm 803 Chicago Bulls/804 Boston Celtics OPEN 176 NOW 173 - PLAY UNDER 172 L (LAST TIME I
PLAY A GAME WHEN THE SPREAD MOVES LIKE THAT)
6:05pm 805 Washington Wizards/806 Detroit Pistons OPEN 191.5 NOW 192.5 - PLAY OVER 192.5 L
2/12/12: 0-2
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 2-0
NBA O/U YTD: 4-3
2/12/12: 5-3
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 92-74-1 55%
NHL PK LINE: 4-2 +$25 AS A 100 BETTOR
6:05pm 58 Columbus Blue Jackets PK +1.5 OPEN -239 NOW -220 L ( I THINK I F@#KED UP YESTERDAY
I FORGET WHO POINTED IT OUT BUT I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED)
7:05pm 61 Tampa Bay Lightning PK +1.5 OPEN -165 NOW -155 L
7:35pm 63 Philadelphia Flyers PK +1.5 OPEN -220 NOW -200 W
NHL ML: 0-1Comment -
UPDATE 11:40AM
Games to Watch 2/13/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then
comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
7:00pm 514 Baylor Bears OPEN -8 NOW -9
O/U:
9:00pm 519 Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks/520 Coppin State Eagles OPEN 144.5 NOW 145.5 - PLAY OVER 145.5
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 1-0
NCAAB O/U YTD: 2-1
NBA
10:35pm 511 Phoenix Suns OPEN +3.5 NOW +3
O/U:
2/12/12: 0-2
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 2-0
NBA O/U YTD: 4-3
2/12/12: 5-3
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 92-74-1 55%
NHL PK LINE: 4-2 +$25 AS A 100 BETTOR
10:05pm 5 Phoenix Coyotes PK +1.5 OPEN -180 NOW -200
NHL ML: 0-1
10:05pm 5 Phoenix Coyotes ML OPEN +160 NOW +150Comment -
Hey r19...I agree that the favorites have been winning the games outright but failing to cover the spreads recently...or that has at least been the case with my picks
I took the Blues & Red Wings yesterday....Blues easily covered but Red Wings only won by a goal....
As far as rlm for NHL is concerned, we need to compile a month's worth of statistics to analyze because handicapping these hockey games is a whole different world compared to betting bball or football. I have been using rlm to monitor the decreasing money lines for underdogs mostly, but there needs to be a secondary tool, in conjunction with rlm system, to truly determine value of the picks that rlm outputsComment -
Also, I'm trying to stay away from wagering spread underdogs (even though winning % is high) due to fact that payouts are so low
For example, coyotes +1.5 is now -200...that's 2:1 in terms of input to output...even if bet wins, it's not worth my bankroll....NORMALLY
What I will concede is that these type of plays have HUGE value if you're having losing week in other sports, because you can make up a little change with these NHL underdog spread bets if you have the bankroll. I use this same technique for favorites in bball if I ever need to recoup some lossesComment -
It looks like there is a huge winning rate by betting on the dog (receiving points) on the puckline when the public bias is 62/63% on a side and there are more than 2,850/3,000 total plays.Originally posted by Laissez FaireComment -
Originally posted by wiseguy007RECORD UPDATE
NHL PK LINE: 4-2 +$25 AS A 100 BETTOR
6:05pm 58 Columbus Blue Jackets PK +1.5 OPEN -239 NOW -220 L ( I THINK I F@#KED UP YESTERDAY I FORGET WHO POINTED IT OUT BUT I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED)
7:05pm 61 Tampa Bay Lightning PK +1.5 OPEN -165 NOW -155 L
7:35pm 63 Philadelphia Flyers PK +1.5 OPEN -220 NOW -200 W
NHL ML: 0-1
I did... but if it makes you feel better, I played the Lightning game and flyers game too so I went against what I was saying too haha. Lines should have gone the other way. I THINK there werent supposed to be any hockey plays last night. I just played for the sake of the fact that games >63% and at least 3000 bets are 28-4 now since 1/31... well I should say 29-5 now =( Figures the day I start playing hockey they'd win one and lose one haha.
R19, I am looking into the games getting points in an hour or so, have an exam I have to take by 4 so primary focus is there.Comment -
Thanks, next time I will take your warning.Originally posted by detroitigerz
I did... but if it makes you feel better, I played the Lightning game and flyers game too so I went against what I was saying too haha. Lines should have gone the other way. I THINK there werent supposed to be any hockey plays last night. I just played for the sake of the fact that games >63% and at least 3000 bets are 28-4 now since 1/31... well I should say 29-5 now =( Figures the day I start playing hockey they'd win one and lose one haha.
R19, I am looking into the games getting points in an hour or so, have an exam I have to take by 4 so primary focus is there.
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