Originally posted by Night-Tripper
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Made quite a few other plays that I didn't post, due to my wife getting a little irritated about waiting around for me to get my bets in before taking her out to dinner. I'll get my complete card (winners and losers) in a little while.Comment -
Most definitely agree with this. And as far as NCAAb goes I'm tempted to just pick games the way I was before. Picked Florida and creighton tonight neither were rlm yet I was comfortable with those bets. Good night for me hope everyone else was equally successful!Originally posted by R19Comment -
Games to Watch 2/14/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them
to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
7:30pm 746 TCU Horned Frogs OPEN +9.5 NOW +8.5 W
8:00pm 748 Southern Illinois Salukis OPEN +7.5 NOW +6.5 L
8:00pm 751 Illinois Chicago Flames OPEN +13.5 NOW +12 W
O/U: NONE
2/13/12: 1-0
2/11/12: 0-1
2/10/12: 1-0
NCAAB O/U YTD: 3-1
NBA NONE
O/U:
10:35pm 717 Atlanta Hawks/718 Los Angeles Lakers OPEN 179.5 NOW 178 - PLAY UNDER 178
10:05pm 715 Washington Wizards/716 Portland Trailblazers OPEN 191 NOW 193.5 - PLAY OVER 193.5
2/10-2/12: 2-3
NBA O/U YTD: 4-3
2/14/12: 2-1
2/13/12: 1-0
2/12/12: 5-3
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 95-75-1 56%
NHL PK LINE: 5-2 +$125 AS A 100 BETTOR
NHL ML: 0-2Comment -
2-14-12 Plays:
Clemson -1.5/450 W
Buffalo +4/450 L
Clemson -2/300 W
Hawks/Lakers U178/750
1st half: Hawks/Lakers U91/250 W
St. Johns +9/450 L
St. Johns +350/200 L
Trailblazers -15/350
Nuggets -8.5/750 W
Grizzlies -3/550 W
Heat/Pacers U199.5/550 W
Illinois-Chicago +12/450 W
TCU +8.5/450 W (forgot to play the damn moneyline due to getting rushed for dinner)
SIU +6.5/450 L
SIU +235/200 L (wished I had forgot to play the damn moneyline)
Hofstra -4.5/450 L (Pauly's favorite team)
CMU -4.5/450 L
3rd period: Winnipeg -.5 @ +142/300 L
3rd period: Calgary -.5 @ +165/300 W
2nd half: Wizards/Trailblazers O96.5/450
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May not have been a good night percentage-wise, but it was a good night financially.Originally posted by Night-Tripper
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What a terrible day in NCAAB. I have been playing static spreads, but may need to cut it. Got a lot of homework to do.Comment -
I've been following this thread for the past 2 weeks now and I think this is a great system. I have been getting all my Public Picks through freesportsbet.com. Does everyone think that is the best website to use to see which way the public is betting? I looked at potential RLM picks for tonight that were over 60% at the moment and got 15 potential plays (NCAAB & NBA). That sounds like a bunch of picks to have RLM in one night. Here is what I got...
Possible plays tonight...
NBA
Nets
Pistons
Bobcats
Kings (I really like this game)
Suns
NCAA
Northwestern
Villanova (I really like this game)
Rutgers
Iona/Rider OVER
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNC/Miami UNDER
St. Bonnaventure
Tulsa
SE Missouri State
Montana State
Sacramento State
NHL
Montreal Canadiens
Colorado Avalanche
Now I am sure not all of these will fall under the system but when should I place a bet? When the bet totals over 3,000 and it is above 63% on the opposite side or do I wait until right before tip off? I am simply trying to tighten up my bets so that I don't take so many. Or get to sloppy because I see so many possible RLM games at the beginning of the day. Thanks and any feedback would be great!Comment -
Best to wait until about 20 min before tip-off in my opinion. As close as possible to tip-off is best.Originally posted by CallmeClutch23Comment -
i'm back at it today fellas...i was "out of commission" last night so to speak...I see the system called that TCU playComment -
agreed...the closer to tip off, the betterOriginally posted by detroitigerz
the only disadvantage to this strategy is what Night Tripper pointed out in a previous post...you may lose a half point or point in the process of waiting until close to game time. Some times, this is inconsequential. Sometimes, it can bite you in the ass. For example, taking a team +3.5 instead of +4 and they lose by 4...so you lose the wager instead of at least pushingComment -
yea that is the one downfall that I have noticed. What if you have a play that moves 1.5-2 points though and it fits the system requirements early. Wouldn't you want to jump on that game? I feel like freesportsbet.com is a good website but I just wanted to get some opinions! Thanks guysComment -
Originally posted by Night-Tripper
screw the percentages...it's all about moolah
I could care less if I lose 5 to 7 bets if I hit a $5 multiple team parlay for $945 (which I've done before haha)Comment -
Originally posted by CallmeClutch23
if any game jumps 1.5-2 points, then that is definitely worth playing early as long as it fits parameters and line is moving in your favor (in my opinion)...but that is the exception, not the rule
games in which there is only.5-1pt movement is what I'm referring to mainly....it really comes down to discretion and personal betting habits to determine whether or not you would play these early. I don't make a lot of early plays using the RLM system. I have another system that I devised to pick a small number of plays, and those are the ones that I book early before the lines have time to change. Then, I use the RLM system in the early evening to make selections based on the public betting trends and our techniques....so technically, I have 2 "rounds" of picks, so to speakComment -
The reason I was asking about such a big line movement is for instance, the Villanova/USF game has moved 1.5 pts in favor of Villanova already with almost 3,000 bets...to me that would be a game you would want to jump on. Thanks for the input LF and Roll TideComment -
Villanova+2
new mexico-1
sacramento kings+6Comment -
Care to elaborate on your "morning," strategy? I've found doing the same is a good way to win more. I usually look at the games early in the day (usually 11-12) if there are any lines that seem pretty off too me I'll snatch those up (UNC game tonight already taken), then when 5-5:30 rolls around I'll take a look at the RLM's and see if I agree with any of the games the wise guys are banking on.Originally posted by Laissez FaireComment -
where do you get New Mexico being a RLM play? I don't see it as one on freesportsbet.com?Originally posted by PAULYPOKERComment -
It's on the bottom of the page, and it's static at the moment. Usually wouldn't play it but looking at it from my "other," perspective haha it's a play, already bet it.Originally posted by CallmeClutch23Comment -
When you go back in history on Free Sports Bet, make sure you select the right year! I just noticed that when a season is over, you can not go back and look at it. The tabs disappear. It looks like you can only access data for current seasons as a free user.
Also, make sure to refresh the pages on current plays because I have seen percentages and number of plays magically change by a lot.Comment -
I'm thinking it's time for a different website, some of the figures I see on FSB seem very off to me. I guess, somebody did say these figures come from 5dimes though so they must be right... right?Originally posted by R19Comment -
There is no central exchange so the source and integrity will always be a challenge.Originally posted by detroitigerzComment -
I will usually eliminate a bet if I honestly don't like it in my gut, example, the Nets +3.5 tonight is RLM and I just don't see how they cover that, even being at home...I want to take it because the percentage that RLM has won is over 50% but it's tough...any thoughts on that game specifically?Comment -
Aside from the RLM, what is to like with Villanova? On a night with a ton of RLM plays that is one I will definitely will not play, in fact I think South Florida looks great.
What am I missing?Comment -
The consensus figures from SBRodds comes from 5dimes. From what I can tell, the freesportsbets consensus comes from the bets placed on their own website.Originally posted by detroitigerzComment -
Example...on freesportsbet.com it has the Nets as an RLM pick but on 5dimes it has the line moving the right direction. That is where it can get complicatedComment -
There are many times where the opening lines will differ across books/sites and that can be problematic. That is why many here are using Free Sports Bet. I often look at SBR and The Rx as well.Comment -
TOTAL o193½-110 (INDIANA vrs CLEVELAND)Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
TOTAL o182-110 (DETROIT vrs BOSTON)
TOTAL o199½-110 (SACRAMENTO vrs NEW YORK)
TOTAL o193½-110 (CHARLOTTE vrs MINNESOTA)Comment -
so disappointingOriginally posted by R19Comment -
I do...Originally posted by CallmeClutch23
Perfect example... I will go with my intuition to play games that are RLM, but not meeting the #/bets or betting percentages. But, I liked the spread move made last night when the lines were first posted and since it was looking like things weren't going ot change, I jumped on the Nets last night before going to bed.Originally posted by CallmeClutch23
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Originally posted by DirkDiggs
I am actually a Nova college bball fan & love mr wright...but we have been HORRIBLE ATS this year (they've only covered 3 times out of 12 tries on the road this season) & USF is more than capable of beating Villanova on neutral court, let alone at home ....the problem I have with Nova is that they are so inconsistent it's a joke
To me, Nova is a young team on the road...whose best games have come against DePaul, Seton Hall, & UC Riverside...going up against a USF team whose only covered 5 out of 14 games at home this season
If I were to wager on this game, I agree w/ Dirk in that USF is way to go
BUT HONESTLY...both sides look ugly to me...so I think I'll pass on this one..just thought I would provide a little insight from longtime wildcat fanComment -
Originally posted by detroitigerz
I have friends with computer science degrees who have developed a few different mathematical systems for me that have had pretty good success rates over the past two years in ncaab, ncaaf, NBA, NFLComment -
I agree with Laissez, both teams are god awful. I'm from Tampa area and although I'm not a bulls fan (go seminoles) ((yeah i know my avatar but BIG seminole fan)) I've seen them play and all of my friends are at USF. Everything I hear is bad about them.... Going over the #'s it looks to me like it's offense vs defense... choose a side. nova should score a lot more averaging 73.5 (ranked 112th) points a game vs USF's 69.1 (ranked 200th), but us is only allowing 59 points on the season on average (ranked 119th), whereas nova is allowing 72.1 points a game ranking roughly 251st in the div 1 basketball.Originally posted by DirkDiggs
BTW these statistics are good, but the rankings aren't entirely accurate. I just looked at what row they are on my spreadsheet, lots of tie's and such.
Either way, it's def a no play for me. USF is bad and I don't know enough bout villanova... actually if I was GOING to take this game I'd take Villanova.
keep going.... we're all friends here right? hahaOriginally posted by Laissez Faire
you care to s'plain it's parameters a bit?Comment -
I don't think FreeSports gets their information from 5Dimes... not sure where it comes from... but then again, it didn't matter to me.Originally posted by detroitigerz
Everyone needs to remember that this thread was started as a *you can do this yourself* system to fill the void created when another user decided to go into business for himself and start charging for his plays. It's for beginners... and for those who want to use the quickest/easiest method to develop a strategy that will make them money over the long haul and protect them from gutted when the games don't go their way. (Look at threads from the NBA Board and CBB Board... compare our results with the vast majority of users on nights when the books kick everyone's azz... we may have had a losing night... but we weren't gutted... that's one of the side benefits of RLM-based handicapping.)
Now... this isn't a criticism against anyone in particular... but it's an observation that has been pointed out to me by numerous people. The basics of this system have been bastardized to the point that it's strayed from its original intent... we're adding different handicapping methods into the equation. Now, there's nothing wrong with that... I do it... not by adding/subtracting points, or tracking home versus away, or anything else. However, I still stick to the original formula of 3,000 bets/game. Sometimes I'll play static. Sometimes I'll play games that are 55/45 versus 63/37 (or better). That's why you'll see me posting plays (noted as *my plays*) on the board. (The only reason I'm actually posting all of my plays as well as the betting amounts is because I was *called out* a few times for making bogus claims about how much I'd won. I also post them because there were at least two users that wanted me to post them because they wanted to tail me.)
Anyway, I like what we're doing and I'm all for people customizing the system to better suit their needs... but can we try to keep the basic RLM system (3,000 total bets/63% on one team/ static or better line move or 3,000 bets on at least one team/63% on one team/.5 or better line move) as is, so that newbies looking for a way to make money won't feel overwhelmed?
In closing... freesports is used to fill the original intent of this thread. There are a number of similar sites out there, and if you want to customize your handicapping, you can use any site (or combination of any/all of them) to base your RLM plays on. FreeSports is used to introduce the novice to the system and to make the *Official Tracking Plays* of this thread.
Now... go kick some Sports Books azz!Comment -
Totally agree, and I've probably not been a good influence, changing things everyday.Originally posted by Night-Tripper
Well said NT!
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