College Hoops 2011-12

[BiffTFinancial]

Alright, tailing again. Lets hit some of these Overs` its been a minute

yeah, sorry about last night. first negative night in over a week. thought we'd get the late over until Santa Clara started the 2H shooting 2-18. couple more buckets from those fuks and the free throws that go with them and we're there. let's get back at em tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck tonight Biff

thanks, alamo, BOL to you too.

[Madison]

Cincy doing a better job in the 2H of stepping into the zone, have to make things more towards the hoop against that zone.

Hey Biff,

That zone has always been most susceptible to a 4 or 5 who post at the fould line and either knock down the 15' or dump to a baseline cutter. My memory's not what it used to be but I believe it was Georgetown who had such a player. maybe 3 or 4 years ago. Anyway that's the formula, just not many have it. GL

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff, That zone has always been most susceptible to a 4 or 5 who post at the fould line and either knock down the 15' or dump to a baseline cutter. My memory's not what it used to be but I believe it was Georgetown who had such a player. maybe 3 or 4 years ago. Anyway that's the formula, just not many have it. GL

agreed. the foul line was open all night for UC and they did nothing with it. that zone (like most zones) is susceptible to passes through the high post. you're right, Greg Monroe at Georgetown was exceptional at that. frankly, so am i (against far lesser competition), but i'm out of eligibility. they also should have tried overloading one side a lot more. dumb basketball by UC, dumb play by me.

the real point is that the way to attack a zone is to go at the hoop and get into seams, cause reactions and then hit the next opening. UC was doing some of that late in the 1H/early in the 2H last night, but using completely spastic direct passes instead of bounce passes (which resulted in turnovers and then they stopped trying to attack it properly). most of the night, they sat on the outside in a shell, over-dribbled, or allowed Cuse to force their movement to be away from the hoop, making defense really easy on Cuse. i'll never forget a coach that i had when i was younger stopping practice to yell at a kid: "you're fading away as you shoot from a zone. why? i mean, it is a ZONE." the point being, if you're shooting as you fade away against a zone, you haven't found a very good shot against a very predictable defense.

[Madison]

agreed. the foul line was open all night for UC and they did nothing with it. that zone (like most zones) is susceptible to passes through the high post. you're right, Greg Monroe at Georgetown was exceptional at that. frankly, so am i (against far lesser competition), but i'm out of eligibility. they also should have tried overloading one side a lot more. dumb basketball by UC, dumb play by me. the real point is that the way to attack a zone is to go at the hoop and get into seams, cause reactions and then hit the next opening. UC was doing some of that late in the 1H/early in the 2H last night, but using completely spastic direct passes instead of bounce passes (which resulted in turnovers and then they stopped trying to attack it properly). most of the night, they sat on the outside in a shell, over-dribbled, or allowed Cuse to force their movement to be away from the hoop, making defense really easy on Cuse. i'll never forget a coach that i had when i was younger stopping practice to yell at a kid: "you're fading away as you shoot from a zone. why? i mean, it is a ZONE." the point being, if you're shooting as you fade away against a zone, you haven't found a very good shot against a very predictable defense.

Ahhh Monroe exactly. Nice to still have working brain cells. But I had the general idea.

[Madison]

I'm better nowadays on multiple choice.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Iowa State +8 (-105)

Tuesday 1.24.2012 updated card
3* Akron +1'
3* Baylor/Oklahoma over 143'
3* Iowa State +8 (-105)

BOL to all tonight.

[Madison]

When you have nothing to do ...

Vandy is a different place to play. When I played I could shoot some and boy did I hate a fieldhouse i.e. without a good background which is somewhat Vandy. Wondering what the opp's 3 pt fg % is ytd at Vandy? Tenn pounding the ball inside when they haven't turned it over 10 @10min 1H.

[BiffTFinancial]

lean Michigan/Purdue 2H under 68 but passing. that one will likely bring chest pains.

[BiffTFinancial]

When you have nothing to do ... Vandy is a different place to play. When I played I could shoot some and boy did I hate a fieldhouse i.e. without a good background which is somewhat Vandy. Wondering what the opp's 3 pt fg % is ytd at Vandy? Tenn pounding the ball inside when they haven't turned it over 10 @10min 1H.

totally agree. always loved to shoot in an old crappy gym, in part because that's what i grew up playing in.

i took a look, and you wouldn't believe it - Vandy allows 33.2% 3PT% on the season, but an astounding 39% at home (according to covers). i would have thought that you were right, that they'd give teams trouble from deep at home, and wouldn't be surprised if that were the case in prior seasons.

[BiffTFinancial]

Akron would be doing a lot better if they didn't have an unreal 12 TOs in the 1H. and not that this is news, but Jarrod Jones for Ball State is fkn sweet.

[Madison]

totally agree. always loved to shoot in an old crappy gym, in part because that's what i grew up playing in. i took a look, and you wouldn't believe it - Vandy allows 33.2% 3PT% on the season, but an astounding 39% at home (according to covers). i would have thought that you were right, that they'd give teams trouble from deep at home, and wouldn't be surprised if that were the case in prior seasons.

You're correct that's a stat that is HARD to believe especially relative to overall. Thanks so much for your help. You can glean this info way faster than I.

[BiffTFinancial]

2H total dropped from open on Baylor/OU. that's not good news. just need a few points more than the 2H total.

[nickspen13]

Good call on Akron!

[RoadDog]

Hey Biff. Zip it up baby.

[caboman]

Iowa St. held!!! Thanks for the winners Biff!!

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 1.24.2012 final card
3* Akron +1' - WINNER
3* Baylor/Oklahoma over 143' - LOSER
3* Iowa State +8 (-105) - WINNER

2-1 +2.7u on night, 88-73-3 +33.94u season to date.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good call on Akron!

thanks!

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff. Zip it up baby.

damn straight. actually threw another unit on Akron at +2 right before tip. won't show in my record but it's in my bankroll. hated that i didn't beat the closer on that one, so win especially sweet. love that Akron team, esp their bench.

[BiffTFinancial]

Iowa St. held!!! Thanks for the winners Biff!!

what a sweat that was, huh? thought we were in real trouble when ISU was down 46-31. one-bucket loser in Norman, one-bucket winner in Austin. seems fair.

[BiffTFinancial]

with loss on Baylor/OU, keep-up games now 20-12-1, two straight losses. although Baylor/OU was close, there's no denying that the zone defense contributed to keeping pace a little slower. i think that i need to start considering a significant amount of zone a bigger red flag. that's at least four losses where it's arguably been a contributing factor (Ohio U/BGSU, Cuse/ND, Cuse/Cincy, Baylor/OU).

[LockPickMaster]

Biff, Need your thoughts on Bama and UNLV.

UNLV @ BOISE ST: BSU coach Leon Rice says his steadiest and key performer is Jeff Eliorraga. The 6'2 guard was averaging 37 minutes per game in conf play and 53% 3-pointers in MWC action. Unfortuantely, he's likely done for the season - fractured right thumb on Saturday. Books/public slow to react as of 12:20 AM ET on Wednesday. UNLV currently -9- ... which is where the line would be with Eliorraga.

ALABAMA @ SO CAROLINA: Tide = 3 straight losses. USC = 4 straight losses. Bama the much better team on the defensive end - and not as bad as the casual fan thinks on the offensive end, making over 46% of their shots. SC just 2 players avg more than 8.5 ppg. Bama leading scorer JaMychal Green should put up big numbers (offense) in this one.

[BiffTFinancial]

sure enough, ran pace calc on final stats for Baylor/OU and it was only 61. ken pom had predicted 68.2. needed more fouls and FTs for over last night, and zone really keeps those down. bah. live and learn.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, Need your thoughts on Bama and UNLV. UNLV @ BOISE ST: BSU coach Leon Rice says his steadiest and key performer is Jeff Eliorraga. The 6'2 guard was averaging 37 minutes per game in conf play and 53% 3-pointers in MWC action. Unfortuantely, he's likely done for the season - fractured right thumb on Saturday. Books/public slow to react as of 12:20 AM ET on Wednesday. UNLV currently -9- ... which is where the line would be with Eliorraga. ALABAMA @ SO CAROLINA: Tide = 3 straight losses. USC = 4 straight losses. Bama the much better team on the defensive end - and not as bad as the casual fan thinks on the offensive end, making over 46% of their shots. SC just 2 players avg more than 8.5 ppg. Bama leading scorer JaMychal Green should put up big numbers (offense) in this one.

will take a look and post back with thoughts. both games are on my list of games to cap.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, Need your thoughts on Bama and UNLV. UNLV @ BOISE ST: BSU coach Leon Rice says his steadiest and key performer is Jeff Eliorraga. The 6'2 guard was averaging 37 minutes per game in conf play and 53% 3-pointers in MWC action. Unfortuantely, he's likely done for the season - fractured right thumb on Saturday. Books/public slow to react as of 12:20 AM ET on Wednesday. UNLV currently -9- ... which is where the line would be with Eliorraga. ALABAMA @ SO CAROLINA: Tide = 3 straight losses. USC = 4 straight losses. Bama the much better team on the defensive end - and not as bad as the casual fan thinks on the offensive end, making over 46% of their shots. SC just 2 players avg more than 8.5 ppg. Bama leading scorer JaMychal Green should put up big numbers (offense) in this one.

i have UNLV by 12-14. as for Eliorraga, well, my candid assessment is that that's a coach trying to make a player feel better after a tough injury. ken pom evaluates Eliorraga as "nearly invisible" (< 12% of possessions used), so it's not surprising that his absence would not have much of an effect on the line. at least objectively, sounds as if Rice is overstating the loss.

i have a very low opinion of S Carolina, so it would be Bama or pass for me. my concern there would be taking road chalk that has difficulty scoring, but Bama does shoot FTs reasonably well and you have to think that this is decent value given each team's recent run. not much history to look at for Bama as a medium road chalk to see how they've performed in comparable situations. i think that Bama wins by 8-9.

BOL whatever you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

potential keep-up games for Wednesday:
WVU/SJU over 134' (red flags for A/TO ratio, 3PT%)
St. Bon/URI over 137 (red flags for A/TO ratio, 3PT%)
Bama/S Carolina over 119 (red flags for A/TO ratio, pace)
Creighton/Drake over 148' (red flag for A/TO ratio)
FSU/WF over 135
Missou/Okie State over 141
UNLV/Boise over 147

[BiffTFinancial]

think that i'm going to have to red flag Missou/Okie State and UNLV/Boise strictly on principle. ken pom predicts 144 points from Missou/Okie State and 150 from UNLV/Boise, but books opened totals for each three points lower than the ken pom prediction and they have not moved. that cannot be a good sign since ken pom has become the standard for where to open a total. a one-point difference is not a big deal, but three points and no move overnight? pass.

[BiffTFinancial]

going to have to look into FSU/WF over 135 more before taking it, but my gut instinct is to flag it for Wake's zone defense. in a somewhat similar spot against VT in early January (6' point home dog), the game went way under as VT struggled against Wake's zone. perhaps more importantly (because one could make the argument that a red-hot FSU team will shoot much better than did VT), the ken pom predicted pace for VT/WF should've been 65.4, but the actual pace ended up at around 62.5. the culprit was the same as Baylor/OU, Cuse/Cincy - the zone keeping fouls and FTs way down. however, it is worth noting that the total opened above the ken pom prediction (133) and is now starting to rise at Pinny and Greek, which is a good sign.

[BiffTFinancial]

early leans
VCU -21'
FSU/WF over 135
Providence +9
St Louis +2'

[alamo]

Tailed last night Biff. Another really solid + night. Thx

[BiffTFinancial]

Tailed last night Biff. Another really solid + night. Thx

thank you, glad to hear it.

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 1.25.2012
3* Saint Louis +2' (-107)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Saint Louis ML +125

Wednesday 1.25.2012 updated card
3* Saint Louis +2' (-107)
1* Saint Louis ML +125

[caboman]

Is it more about fading Xavier and being confident about Saint Louis? Both beat Duquesne handily, both lost to Dayton. Other than the Dayton loss, Xavier won their other previous 4 games. Would love some of your insight into this game, as I find the two teams evenly matched, but give the nod to Xavier for being at home.

[LockPickMaster]

Is it more about fading Xavier and being confident about Saint Louis? Both beat Duquesne handily, both lost to Dayton. Other than the Dayton loss, Xavier won their other previous 4 games. Would love some of your insight into this game, as I find the two teams evenly matched, but give the nod to Xavier for being at home.

Found this pretty good writeup for you:

Xavier's offense has looked no where near what it could be or what it looked at the start of the year. Yah, lately they've put up some points, but those games have also come against up-tempo teams, which St. Louis is not. St. Louis averages 62 possessions a game, and Xavier's only taken part in a game less than that once, and they weren't really tested b/c they were blowing out a Duquesne team who can't score all of a sudden. If you're backing the X, then Frease is going to have a good game. This STL team has four guards that rank top 500 nationally in steal percentage. They pressure the living piss out of you. I think Tu gets his, but ultimately Frease is going to have to rid the injuries or whatever is effecting his performance this year b/c he has been the missing peice. Ultimately, Xavier's home court could be the advantage they need, but I don't think they have the depth, nor the offense to get the win going against a style they haven't played yet on the season. I won't even comment on how good the St. Louis offense is (they don't have a single "key" contributor on the team with an offensive rating of less than 100). Simply amazing. STL has septuple revenge as well.