College Hoops 2011-12

[BiffTFinancial]

won't start capping college hoops regularly until closer to New Years, but will make some spot plays between then and now.

[BiffTFinancial]

first college hoops pick of season

3* Michigan State/North Carolina 1H 63

The game under 135' looks good as well, but going with the first half to maximize the impact of the bizarre environment in which this game is being played - outdoors at 5 pm local time in San Diego on an aircraft carrier. The sightlines will be worse than the last few Final Fours. Izzo knows that his team cannot run with the Heels, so Sparty will slow the pace from the outset and play extremely physically. And it will work, at least for a half, as Roy Williams' draft dodging catches up with him in the form of some pro-Sparty calls from the refs to keep this one close and low-scoring at halftime. Projected Halftime Score: Tarheels, 30-24. This one's for the brave men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces, serving at home and abroad. USA! USA! USA!

[Madison]

Hey Biff,

kinda on the same angle. Why the 9 pt difference 1H vs total? Makes the total a little more appealing to me.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff, kinda on the same angle. Why the 9 pt difference 1H vs total? Makes the total a little more appealing to me.

actually, a 9-10 point difference in total, 1H compared to game, is pretty standard in college hoops. compared to NBA, college hoops game is likely to have a lot of FTs down the stretch. if this game were being played under standard circumstances (as in, indoors), a ken pom pace calc puts this in the mid-140s, and yet the total opened around 136 and dropped. i think game under is good too, but i want to maximize how odd the 1H likely will be. there's a decent chance Sparty won't score more than around 20 1H. Izzo will have his guys start the game slow and physical to keep it close, but once UNC goes on a run and opens things up, Sparty will have to do the same.

[Madison]

Ahhh ft's yes makes sense and the possibility of OT. Thx

[BiffTFinancial]

Ahhh ft's yes makes sense and the possibility of OT. Thx

yep. rule of thumb for college hoops: divide game total in half and subtract 5 for 1H total, add 5 for likely 2H total. that rule can be invaluable for sniffing out fishy 2H lines. if 2H deviates from that number by more than a couple, something's usually up.

[Luv2Play2]

i might be premature ? but im glad i checked your thread.. its a winner wth 5 to go.. thanks biff

[Luv2Play2]

srry for the FUC'NNNNNNNNNN JINX.. GOD DAM FOULS

[Luv2Play2]

YOU CANT BE KIDDING ME.. I GOT A LUCKY REVERSE JINX.. 47 SECS LEFT A MISSED FT's AND NO BASKETS.. OMG

[romoney]

Mee tooo Biff.... just a few random plays for the action only...we cant get a real feel for these teams til around the New years...
Im on Utah St...and Montana tonight..and Wofford...BOL buddy...its gonna be a fun year!!

[Dexter]

good luck with the season bifft

[Madison]

first college hoops pick of season 3* Michigan State/North Carolina 1H 63 The game under 135' looks good as well, but going with the first half to maximize the impact of the bizarre environment in which this game is being played - outdoors at 5 pm local time in San Diego on an aircraft carrier. The sightlines will be worse than the last few Final Fours. Izzo knows that his team cannot run with the Heels, so Sparty will slow the pace from the outset and play extremely physically. And it will work, at least for a half, as Roy Williams' draft dodging catches up with him in the form of some pro-Sparty calls from the refs to keep this one close and low-scoring at halftime. Projected Halftime Score: Tarheels, 30-24. This one's for the brave men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces, serving at home and abroad. USA! USA! USA!

Nice !! Was looking there before your post but you pushed me in. Thx

[pacocn]

Biff, bol on your season
let the winning begin with some spot plays

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Michigan State/North Carolina 1H 63 - WINNER, HEELS, 36-25

proper winner. bit of a sweat, half the points were scored in first 4/last 3 minutes. UNC was smart to get into the bonus early, fortunately they missed FTs, which offset the stupid easy putbacks they allowed. all in all, it went the way that i expected and still needed a little luck to win it. nice to start the season 1-0 +3u.

[BiffTFinancial]

YOU CANT BE KIDDING ME.. I GOT A LUCKY REVERSE JINX.. 47 SECS LEFT A MISSED FT's AND NO BASKETS.. OMG

phew. i thought it was home with around 4-5 minutes left, too.

Mee tooo Biff.... just a few random plays for the action only...we cant get a real feel for these teams til around the New years... Im on Utah St...and Montana tonight..and Wofford...BOL buddy...its gonna be a fun year!!

thanks, romoney. yeah, need to let these teams plays some games and accumulate their body of work before betting them must, esp during pre-conference when motivations fluctuate. the court/environment swung the total last night by 20+ points, i think tht game might make 150 in normal situation.

good luck with the season bifft

thanks, dexter, BOL to you too.

Biff, bol on your season let the winning begin with some spot plays

thanks, pacocn. glad we got that one.

[BiffTFinancial]

1* South Carolina 2H -6

[BiffTFinancial]

Ugh. South Carolina looking terrible. Bad pick.

[BiffTFinancial]

1* S Carolina 2H -6 - LOSER. Bah.

1-1 +1.9u on the college hoops season.

said spot plays but apparently this was a shitty spot (or at least a shitty play).

if i don't shape my ass up, i'll find myself in Ralphie's fade thread.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday, 12.6.2011

2* George Mason +10 (-109)
2* Long Beach State +13' (-105)

looking at some totals, may add one in a bit.

[YOUNGBUCK]

havent seen u in a minute biff

[BigDan]

gl brother..

[BiffTFinancial]

havent seen u in a minute biff

what's up, buck? good to see you. been busy but now that CFB is winding down, time to shift my attention to my favorite sport. BOL to you tonight.

gl brother..

thanks, BigDan. agree with your take on GMU/UVA. Hoos shouldn't be laying that kind of wood. thought about the 1H under, but at 54', decided to ride with you on Mason. thinking Kent/JMU 1H under 66' might be my third play, in the numbers right now.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Kent State/James Madison 1H under 66

Tuesday 12.6.2011 updated card
2* George Mason +10 (-109)
2* Kent State/James Madison 1H under 66
2* Long Beach State +13' (-105)

5D dropped that 1H total directly from 66' to 65' while i was eying up, fortunately, Legends was not as quick. BOL to all tonight.

[pacocn]

Biff, great call on 1H Under kent/JM

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, great call on 1H Under kent/JM

thanks, man!

[BiffTFinancial]

2* Kent/JMU 1H under 66 - WINNER

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Iowa/Northern Iowa 1H under 61 (-120)

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 12.6.2011 final card
2* George Mason +10 (-109) - LOSER
2* Kent State/James Madison 1H under 66 - WINNER
2* Long Beach State +13' (-105) - WINNER
1* Iowa/Northern Iowa 1H under 61 (-120) - WINNER

3-1 +2.82u on the day, 4-2 +4.72u season to date.

fk George Mason, shite commuter school.

[BiffTFinancial]

lot of potential "keep up" games tonight (where home dog of 4-10 points is likely to push pace from outset to keep up with better team).

early leans:
Bama/Dayton over 126
CSF/Utah over 138'
Xavier/Butler over 127
Southern Miss/S Alabama 135

MTSU/UAB is right size dog, but many red flags on UAB offense/pace. VT/URI and Buffalo/Niagara fit the general criteria, but each have a couple of red flags, so dropping those too.

[Luv2Play2]

bol always biff... that 78 turned into 80 wth the help of another 6pac on the inward 9..

[BiffTFinancial]

bol always biff... that 78 turned into 80 wth the help of another 6pac on the inward 9..

thanks, L2P2. managing one's intake on the back 9 is always a challenge, heh heh.

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 12.7.2011
2* Fordham/Manhattan 1H under 60'

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Alabama/Dayton over 126'

may add one more later this afternoon.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Xavier -5 (-108)

Wednesday 12.7.2011 updated card
2* Fordham/Manhattan 1H under 60'
2* Alabama/Dayton over 126'
2* Xavier -5 (-108)

BOL to all tonight.

[Ktown]

Biff loved your totals on baseball, good luck with cb.