Usually don't track my leans unless it is directly in front of me. Plus if I use the word "lean" it would be referring to a play that has little to no value left in the number the line is set at, and only would of had good value if the line opened where I hoped it would. No point playing those.
70kgman 11-12 hoops, ect...
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70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#736Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#737Updated Record: 73-58-2
NCAAB
1H: 2-2
2H: 57-40-2
NBA
1H: 5-6
2H: 9-8
FG: 0-2Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7381/14
1st Half: Pittsburgh / Marquette Under 66
1st Half: Wright St. / Green Bay Over 55
1st Half: Duquense / Rhode Island Under 69.5
1st Half: Tennessee Tech / Murray St. Over 65.5
1st Half: La Salle / Dayton Over 64.5
Comment -
RolandomanSBR Rookie
- 12-29-11
- 11
#739Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7412H: Hofstra / Old Dominion Over 68Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#742Hofstra had a 14 minute stretch in that 2nd half between where they only made one FG basket.Shot 28% and went 1-8 on 3 pointers for the half. So frustrating when I feel like I made a good pick but get shooting numbers like that!!!
Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7432H: Pittsburgh / Marquette Under 73Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#744Take the 1H under in the Rhode Island game...they shoot 50%.
Take the 1H over in the Wright St. game...they shoot 35%
The Pitt 1H under wins by 13, but not because any help from the shooting, shooting was pretty much average.
See what I mean with this shooting variance stuff? It is like I am incapable of ever getting shooting variance on the right side of average. I don't get it. I would be winning most of my wagers I make if I could even get average shooting.Comment -
socrates01SBR Sharp
- 05-17-09
- 301
#745Hey 70k, you mentioned an extra layer for your 1st half bets?You're feeling pretty strong about it? Going to be following your Tennessee Tech and La Salle overs!Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#746Mathematically they look great from many different angles. I'd like to say I feel strong about them but that is kind of hard to do when it seems every over I take I am lucky to get combined shooting in the mid 30% range at best for some strange reason.Comment -
socrates01SBR Sharp
- 05-17-09
- 301
#747Hopefully, we'll get that percentage up today!Comment -
dume walkerSBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 971
#748At least we got both halves of the Pitt game. I thought last minute fouls might turn around and bite us in the ass this time. Good call there.Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7492H: Iowa St. / Kansas Over 76.5Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7502H: Pepperdine / San Francisco Under 69Comment -
Not-A-KidSBR Wise Guy
- 03-07-11
- 525
#751This Kansas game is sickening.Comment -
Not-A-KidSBR Wise Guy
- 03-07-11
- 525
#75211 points in the last 6 minutes of a close game. Unbelievable.Comment -
southpaw74SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-21-09
- 7104
#753Pepperdine game is scoring like Iowa state should have...sickComment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#754Iowa St. only made one shot in the final 6:39 of the game. Disgusting! The combined shooting was under 40% in that 2H too.
That Pepperdine under probably has no chance either. They are shooting over 50% in the 2H of that one. I have been on the wrong side of the shooting variance on all 7 wagers and literally probably something like 23 of the last 25 wagers, including the ones that won regardless. How is that even possible? Shouldn't it be pretty much a coin flip? I am actually happy with the pace of most of these, which is mainly what I am capping on these plays.Comment -
dume walkerSBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 971
#755Again, I'm not a math guy. And I do not want to buy into the notion of "gambler's fallacy", i.e., that because "red" has come up 23 out of 25 times, "black" is suddenly due to hit. But with random variance, shouldn't those shooting percentage numbers even out in the long run; so that there is suddenly a run of them in your favor. I certainly hope so. It would seem to suggest a nice run in the future. And I'm guessing that's presuming there's no hidden factor in any of your models that is somehow actually detecting those seemingly unpredictable shooting variances, but somehow placing them on the opposite side or your final picks.Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#756Again, I'm not a math guy. And I do not want to buy into the notion of "gambler's fallacy", i.e., that because "red" has come up 23 out of 25 times, "black" is suddenly due to hit. But with random variance, shouldn't those shooting percentage numbers even out in the long run; so that there is suddenly a run of them in your favor. I certainly hope so. It would seem to suggest a nice run in the future. And I'm guessing that's presuming there's no hidden factor in any of your models that is somehow actually detecting those seemingly unpredictable shooting variances, but somehow placing them on the opposite side or your final picks.
It is just really baffling to me. I have been pointing this out for a while now. Decided to make a side note on all the wagers in this thread today just so everyone doesn't think I am crazy. Hopefully this is just random bad shooting variance that eventually starts going the other way, it just seems to be occurring at too much of a abnormal rate to be bad luck.Comment -
dume walkerSBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 971
#757That's kind of my possibly wrong-headed, layman's point. If this continues at an "abnormal rate" that is so high it can't possibly be "bad luck" then it has to be something in the math, doesn't it? Is it possible you and your models may have stumbled upon something that can actually detect those "random" shooting percentages? If so, and if you can flip them your way, then it's time to call Brinks and tell them you'll be needing one of their trucks.Comment -
dume walkerSBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 971
#758In the meantime, the LaSalle/Dayton over hit with 2 minutes left to go in the half. A 4-5 day so far. Not bad considering how much you had those shooting percentages working against you.Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#759Got good shooting in that Dayton game. Good thing too, because the pace wasn't as fast I expected. Hopefully that is the beginning of the shooting variance starting to balance out.
p.s A 2H play that looks really good is coming up in a few minutes.Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7602H: Marshall / Central Florida Over 70Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7612H: Boston / Indiana Over 89.5Comment -
Not-A-KidSBR Wise Guy
- 03-07-11
- 525
#762Thought UCF/Marshall might go to fukkn OT. Didn't make it.Comment -
socrates01SBR Sharp
- 05-17-09
- 301
#763Yeah I was hoping for that too....Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7642H: Portland / Houston Over 98.5Comment -
southpaw74SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-21-09
- 7104
#765Hope Houston hits...celtics not even closebankroll is getting hit. I thought we turned a corner so i ramped it up a bit but fell back down. It will turn to the good side again.
Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#766Hopefully. I hate overs in the NBA though.
Hopefully I can start getting some breaks soon, right back into comical combined shooting numbers in that Boston game, in the low 30% range. Don't know how I do it.Comment -
Cutler'sThumbSBR Sharp
- 12-06-11
- 287
#767I'm getting really depressed right now. Everything has broken against me today. I've been on every loss, yet somehow only gotten on one of the wins.
Boston/Indiana looks like toast too.
It's basically what's happened overall since I started tailing.
You're 20-28 since I've been here, and the way it's broken I'm 11-24 on the plays I caught. My BR is really starting to feel it. Have you hit runs like this before?Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#7682H: TCU / Colorado St. Under 77.5Comment -
southpaw74SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-21-09
- 7104
#769I'm getting really depressed right now. Everything has broken against me today. I've been on every loss, yet somehow only gotten on one of the wins.
Boston/Indiana looks like toast too.
It's basically what's happened overall since I started tailing.
You're 20-28 since I've been here, and the way it's broken I'm 11-24 on the plays I caught. My BR is really starting to feel it. Have you hit runs like this before?Comment -
70kgmanSBR MVP
- 01-31-10
- 4354
#770I'm getting really depressed right now. Everything has broken against me today. I've been on every loss, yet somehow only gotten on one of the wins.
Boston/Indiana looks like toast too.
It's basically what's happened overall since I started tailing.
You're 20-28 since I've been here, and the way it's broken I'm 11-24 on the plays I caught. My BR is really starting to feel it. Have you hit runs like this before?Comment
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