70kgman 11-12 hoops, ect...

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  • 70kgman
    SBR MVP
    • 01-31-10
    • 4354

    #736
    Originally posted by dume walker
    Not that you don't have enough math to content with already, but have you ever kept track of how your leans have performed? Would be interesting to see if in the long run they peform signficantly above breakeven. I'm not a numbers guy like yourself, but wouldn't that be enough to qualify them as worth wagering on?
    Usually don't track my leans unless it is directly in front of me. Plus if I use the word "lean" it would be referring to a play that has little to no value left in the number the line is set at, and only would of had good value if the line opened where I hoped it would. No point playing those.
    Comment
    • 70kgman
      SBR MVP
      • 01-31-10
      • 4354

      #737
      Updated Record: 73-58-2

      NCAAB
      1H: 2-2
      2H: 57-40-2

      NBA
      1H: 5-6
      2H: 9-8
      FG: 0-2
      Comment
      • 70kgman
        SBR MVP
        • 01-31-10
        • 4354

        #738
        1/14

        1st Half: Pittsburgh / Marquette Under 66

        1st Half: Wright St. / Green Bay Over 55

        1st Half: Duquense / Rhode Island Under 69.5

        1st Half: Tennessee Tech / Murray St. Over 65.5

        1st Half: La Salle / Dayton Over 64.5
        Comment
        • Rolandoman
          SBR Rookie
          • 12-29-11
          • 11

          #739
          Originally posted by 70kgman
          1/14

          1st Half: Pittsburgh / Marquette Under 66

          1st Half: Wright St. / Green Bay Over 55

          1st Half: Duquense / Rhode Island Under 69.5

          1st Half: Tennessee Tech / Murray St. Over 65.5

          1st Half: La Salle / Dayton Over 64.5
          Any stronger leans out of this 5 games?
          Comment
          • 70kgman
            SBR MVP
            • 01-31-10
            • 4354

            #740
            Originally posted by Rolandoman
            Any stronger leans out of this 5 games?
            Not really. Like them all pretty much equally.
            Comment
            • 70kgman
              SBR MVP
              • 01-31-10
              • 4354

              #741
              2H: Hofstra / Old Dominion Over 68
              Comment
              • 70kgman
                SBR MVP
                • 01-31-10
                • 4354

                #742
                Hofstra had a 14 minute stretch in that 2nd half between where they only made one FG basket. Shot 28% and went 1-8 on 3 pointers for the half. So frustrating when I feel like I made a good pick but get shooting numbers like that!!!
                Comment
                • 70kgman
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-31-10
                  • 4354

                  #743
                  2H: Pittsburgh / Marquette Under 73
                  Comment
                  • 70kgman
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-31-10
                    • 4354

                    #744
                    Take the 1H under in the Rhode Island game...they shoot 50%.

                    Take the 1H over in the Wright St. game...they shoot 35%

                    The Pitt 1H under wins by 13, but not because any help from the shooting, shooting was pretty much average.

                    See what I mean with this shooting variance stuff? It is like I am incapable of ever getting shooting variance on the right side of average. I don't get it. I would be winning most of my wagers I make if I could even get average shooting.
                    Comment
                    • socrates01
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 05-17-09
                      • 301

                      #745
                      Hey 70k, you mentioned an extra layer for your 1st half bets?You're feeling pretty strong about it? Going to be following your Tennessee Tech and La Salle overs!
                      Comment
                      • 70kgman
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-31-10
                        • 4354

                        #746
                        Originally posted by socrates01
                        Hey 70k, you mentioned an extra layer for your 1st half bets?You're feeling pretty strong about it? Going to be following your Tennessee Tech and La Salle overs!
                        Mathematically they look great from many different angles. I'd like to say I feel strong about them but that is kind of hard to do when it seems every over I take I am lucky to get combined shooting in the mid 30% range at best for some strange reason.
                        Comment
                        • socrates01
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 05-17-09
                          • 301

                          #747
                          Hopefully, we'll get that percentage up today!
                          Comment
                          • dume walker
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 04-08-10
                            • 971

                            #748
                            At least we got both halves of the Pitt game. I thought last minute fouls might turn around and bite us in the ass this time. Good call there.
                            Comment
                            • 70kgman
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-31-10
                              • 4354

                              #749
                              2H: Iowa St. / Kansas Over 76.5
                              Comment
                              • 70kgman
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-31-10
                                • 4354

                                #750
                                2H: Pepperdine / San Francisco Under 69
                                Comment
                                • Not-A-Kid
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-07-11
                                  • 525

                                  #751
                                  This Kansas game is sickening.
                                  Comment
                                  • Not-A-Kid
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-07-11
                                    • 525

                                    #752
                                    11 points in the last 6 minutes of a close game. Unbelievable.
                                    Comment
                                    • southpaw74
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-21-09
                                      • 7104

                                      #753
                                      Pepperdine game is scoring like Iowa state should have...sick
                                      Comment
                                      • 70kgman
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-31-10
                                        • 4354

                                        #754
                                        Iowa St. only made one shot in the final 6:39 of the game. Disgusting! The combined shooting was under 40% in that 2H too.

                                        That Pepperdine under probably has no chance either. They are shooting over 50% in the 2H of that one. I have been on the wrong side of the shooting variance on all 7 wagers and literally probably something like 23 of the last 25 wagers, including the ones that won regardless. How is that even possible? Shouldn't it be pretty much a coin flip? I am actually happy with the pace of most of these, which is mainly what I am capping on these plays.
                                        Comment
                                        • dume walker
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 04-08-10
                                          • 971

                                          #755
                                          Originally posted by 70kgman
                                          I have been on the wrong side of the shooting variance on all 7 wagers and literally probably something like 23 of the last 25 wagers, including the ones that won regardless. How is that even possible? Shouldn't it be pretty much a coin flip?.
                                          Again, I'm not a math guy. And I do not want to buy into the notion of "gambler's fallacy", i.e., that because "red" has come up 23 out of 25 times, "black" is suddenly due to hit. But with random variance, shouldn't those shooting percentage numbers even out in the long run; so that there is suddenly a run of them in your favor. I certainly hope so. It would seem to suggest a nice run in the future. And I'm guessing that's presuming there's no hidden factor in any of your models that is somehow actually detecting those seemingly unpredictable shooting variances, but somehow placing them on the opposite side or your final picks.
                                          Comment
                                          • 70kgman
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-31-10
                                            • 4354

                                            #756
                                            Originally posted by dume walker
                                            Again, I'm not a math guy. And I do not want to buy into the notion of "gambler's fallacy", i.e., that because "red" has come up 23 out of 25 times, "black" is suddenly due to hit. But with random variance, shouldn't those shooting percentage numbers even out in the long run; so that there is suddenly a run of them in your favor. I certainly hope so. It would seem to suggest a nice run in the future. And I'm guessing that's presuming there's no hidden factor in any of your models that is somehow actually detecting those seemingly unpredictable shooting variances, but somehow placing them on the opposite side or your final picks.
                                            And to make another addition, that Murray St. over covered by 9.5 points even though the 1H shooting was 39.7% and under 50% on free throws. It won on pace alone (aka good pick) despite poor shooting.

                                            It is just really baffling to me. I have been pointing this out for a while now. Decided to make a side note on all the wagers in this thread today just so everyone doesn't think I am crazy. Hopefully this is just random bad shooting variance that eventually starts going the other way, it just seems to be occurring at too much of a abnormal rate to be bad luck.
                                            Comment
                                            • dume walker
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 04-08-10
                                              • 971

                                              #757
                                              Originally posted by 70kgman
                                              it just seems to be occurring at too much of a abnormal rate to be bad luck.
                                              That's kind of my possibly wrong-headed, layman's point. If this continues at an "abnormal rate" that is so high it can't possibly be "bad luck" then it has to be something in the math, doesn't it? Is it possible you and your models may have stumbled upon something that can actually detect those "random" shooting percentages? If so, and if you can flip them your way, then it's time to call Brinks and tell them you'll be needing one of their trucks.
                                              Comment
                                              • dume walker
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 04-08-10
                                                • 971

                                                #758
                                                In the meantime, the LaSalle/Dayton over hit with 2 minutes left to go in the half. A 4-5 day so far. Not bad considering how much you had those shooting percentages working against you.
                                                Comment
                                                • 70kgman
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-31-10
                                                  • 4354

                                                  #759
                                                  Got good shooting in that Dayton game. Good thing too, because the pace wasn't as fast I expected. Hopefully that is the beginning of the shooting variance starting to balance out.

                                                  p.s A 2H play that looks really good is coming up in a few minutes.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 70kgman
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-31-10
                                                    • 4354

                                                    #760
                                                    2H: Marshall / Central Florida Over 70
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 70kgman
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-31-10
                                                      • 4354

                                                      #761
                                                      2H: Boston / Indiana Over 89.5
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Not-A-Kid
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 03-07-11
                                                        • 525

                                                        #762
                                                        Thought UCF/Marshall might go to fukkn OT. Didn't make it.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • socrates01
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 05-17-09
                                                          • 301

                                                          #763
                                                          Yeah I was hoping for that too....
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 70kgman
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-31-10
                                                            • 4354

                                                            #764
                                                            2H: Portland / Houston Over 98.5
                                                            Comment
                                                            • southpaw74
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-21-09
                                                              • 7104

                                                              #765
                                                              Hope Houston hits...celtics not even close bankroll is getting hit. I thought we turned a corner so i ramped it up a bit but fell back down. It will turn to the good side again.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 70kgman
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-31-10
                                                                • 4354

                                                                #766
                                                                Hopefully. I hate overs in the NBA though.

                                                                Hopefully I can start getting some breaks soon, right back into comical combined shooting numbers in that Boston game, in the low 30% range. Don't know how I do it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Cutler'sThumb
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 12-06-11
                                                                  • 287

                                                                  #767
                                                                  I'm getting really depressed right now. Everything has broken against me today. I've been on every loss, yet somehow only gotten on one of the wins.
                                                                  Boston/Indiana looks like toast too.
                                                                  It's basically what's happened overall since I started tailing.
                                                                  You're 20-28 since I've been here, and the way it's broken I'm 11-24 on the plays I caught. My BR is really starting to feel it. Have you hit runs like this before?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 70kgman
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-31-10
                                                                    • 4354

                                                                    #768
                                                                    2H: TCU / Colorado St. Under 77.5
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • southpaw74
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 12-21-09
                                                                      • 7104

                                                                      #769
                                                                      Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb
                                                                      I'm getting really depressed right now. Everything has broken against me today. I've been on every loss, yet somehow only gotten on one of the wins.
                                                                      Boston/Indiana looks like toast too.
                                                                      It's basically what's happened overall since I started tailing.
                                                                      You're 20-28 since I've been here, and the way it's broken I'm 11-24 on the plays I caught. My BR is really starting to feel it. Have you hit runs like this before?
                                                                      Use twitter so you get all the plays. Scale back some until the tide turns. That's all you can do.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • 70kgman
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-31-10
                                                                        • 4354

                                                                        #770
                                                                        Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb
                                                                        I'm getting really depressed right now. Everything has broken against me today. I've been on every loss, yet somehow only gotten on one of the wins.
                                                                        Boston/Indiana looks like toast too.
                                                                        It's basically what's happened overall since I started tailing.
                                                                        You're 20-28 since I've been here, and the way it's broken I'm 11-24 on the plays I caught. My BR is really starting to feel it. Have you hit runs like this before?
                                                                        This is probably the worst run in gambling I have ever had. Usually I am pretty consistent. Just nothing seems to be going right with any of my plays the past few weeks. I take overs, they shoot 30%, I take unders, they shoot 55%. And anything close at the end, I don't get the breaks. I guess all I can tell you is I am still happy with the pace of even most of these losses, so I expect it to turn around if this shooting variance stops killing me anytime soon. But who knows? I am just really frustrated with the way things have been going lately.
                                                                        Comment
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