70kgman 11-12 hoops, ect...

blankoblanco · 01-07-12, 11:02 PM

lol i went 0 for 9 today to cap off the worst run i've ever been on in any form of gambling in my life over the past 2 weeks, jesus ****ing christ. most unreal thing i've ever seen how many spreads i'm losing by .5, and everyone i tail starts getting brutalized the moment i begin following. it is freaky, so freaky

70kgman · 01-07-12, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

I was not much better than 50/50 with lots of ups and downs from October to December last year, then consistently hit around 70%+ from January through March.

Hmm, Now that I bring that up, maybe I should just take a break from the math model stuff until close to mid season. Mid-season is when my model related plays started killing it last year. Most of my recent 2nd half losses have just been good picks that ran into flukey bad luck, I would only consider a couple of them bad picks even in hindsight. The model stuff has seemed to be more bad picks than bad luck. It has just kind of been overkill this week with both running bad at once.

So, yeah. That is what I decided to do. Put the NBA model away for 3 or 4 weeks. I will stick with the 2H's. And I will stick with the NCAA 1H's. Even though both of those lost today, I had no problem with either. Just unlucky and got terrible 1H shooting numbers in both, both games had around 80 2H points (without any intentional FT's at the end of either too) once they started shooting close to average in the 2H of the game. Also all four NCAA 1H plays I voided today because of line movement going the other way or because the number was a point or two out of my comfort zone won.

benrama · 01-07-12, 11:33 PM

I started tailing the last 15 plays or so (good timing I know), and yes the 1H stuff clearly needs some work. Also maybe focus on the unders for 2H as these seem to be your strength. All the best with it, I'll remain an interested observer.

Club · 01-07-12, 11:44 PM

I'd be careful making major changes based on a few days or even a few months. The sample size is way, way too small. If you think you have a system that works, just run it.

70kgman · 01-08-12, 12:47 PM

1/8

Milwaukee / Phoenix Under 186.5

70kgman · 01-08-12, 12:52 PM

Geez, Was about to lock it in at 187.5. Line had been stale for at least an hour. Decided to go get a drink first, came back 2 minutes later and the under was dropping like a rock, was already down to 186.5, some books moving down to 185.5 now. With my luck, it will probably land exactly on 187 now.

70kgman · 01-08-12, 12:58 PM

2H: Indiana / Penn St. Over 71.5

Dan Kelly · 01-08-12, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

2H: Indiana / Penn St. Over 71.5

I won't bet against you, but I can't tail you on this one - Because it is a noon start, a lot of times for noon starts teams come out in the second half and can't hit the basket. But maybe the noon start will turn the losing streak around.
I believe this is the first bet you have made on a noon start this season.
GL

Thanks for buying the box in the SuperBowl pool - http://www.ljnljn.com

70kgman · 01-08-12, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by Dan Kelly

I won't bet against you, but I can't tail you on this one - Because it is a noon start, a lot of times for noon starts teams come out in the second half and can't hit the basket. But maybe the noon start will turn the losing streak around.
I believe this is the first bet you have made on a noon start this season.
GL

Thanks for buying the box in the SuperBowl pool - http://www.ljnljn.com

And of course it wins by 20+ points. Isn't that always the way it goes? My "leans" that I decided not to play because the number was a point or two out of my comfort zone, or because I didn't like the line movement have funnily enough been winning like crazy the past few days which has made this recent losing streak that much more frustrating.

mrtsummit · 01-08-12, 02:06 PM

Nice call KG !!!

BobbyD914 · 01-08-12, 02:07 PM

nice hit...thanks 70kg

truanswer · 01-08-12, 02:08 PM

Let's get a winning streak going 70kg. Time to bounce back!

Not-A-Kid · 01-08-12, 02:10 PM

BACK IN THE SADDLE!

dume walker · 01-08-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

And of course it wins by 20+ points. Isn't that always the way it goes? My "leans" that I decided not to play because the number was a point or two out of my comfort zone, or because I didn't like the line movement have funnily enough been winning like crazy the past few days which has made this recent losing streak that much more frustrating.

Wasn't there a period last year where this was happening as well? Where you were being a little too stringent with your filters (or some such thing) and all your leans were winning? Where you were maybe being a little too sensitive to line movements or something like that. If I recall correctly, you made some adjustments and then had some really nice results for the rest of the season. Let's hope that's the case now. And thanks for the winner!

70kgman · 01-08-12, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Wasn't there a period last year where this was happening as well? Where you were being a little too stringent with your filters (or some such thing) and all your leans were winning? Where you were maybe being a little too sensitive to line movements or something like that. If I recall correctly, you made some adjustments and then had some really nice results for the rest of the season. Let's hope that's the case now. And thanks for the winner!

Yes. But I don't end up playing them for a reason. Got to stay diciplined and not play bad numbers with minimal value at best left in them.

Dan Kelly · 01-08-12, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

And of course it wins by 20+ points. Isn't that always the way it goes? My "leans" that I decided not to play because the number was a point or two out of my comfort zone, or because I didn't like the line movement have funnily enough been winning like crazy the past few days which has made this recent losing streak that much more frustrating.

OK - let's start another streak now.

70kgman · 01-09-12, 08:18 PM

2H: Minnesota / Toronto Over 92

truanswer · 01-09-12, 09:15 PM

Gonna need ot for this one to cover.

Luv2Play2 · 01-09-12, 09:17 PM

ahh dbl ot.. man i cant get on a winner no how... gdamn...

need 8 pts in 1:45 for atleast a push..

in philly
of course not let 30 secs run off b4 fouling.. biatches.. need 8 get 6 WTF...

70kgman · 01-09-12, 09:22 PM

Probably 2 OT's the way that one is going. NBA is killing me. Everything was going good in this thread until NBA started.

edit: Pace was good though. They just shot 35.1% and were 4-21 on 3 pointers in the 2H. Cant cap that. Just the way it is going right now.

jayfly · 01-09-12, 10:56 PM

keep banging kilo g, things will turn. you been too good for too long. you know bad streaks come and go as do good streaks.

EasyPicks · 01-10-12, 08:43 AM

NBA 2nd Half's are killing everybody

mrtsummit · 01-10-12, 09:37 AM

time to stop betting those for sure.

SlickRick1382 · 01-10-12, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by mrtsummit

time to stop betting those for sure.

According to who? you ?

Just so happens to be a weird season because of the lockout but things will return to the norm again. Not sure why you're telling someone to stop betting those and telling him what to do with his model. If his model finds value then you bet it. You don't like it then don't bet it yourself or make your own model ... Simple

70kgman · 01-10-12, 08:41 PM

2H: Dallas / Detroit Under 88

70kgman · 01-10-12, 09:59 PM

2H: Vanderbilt / South Carolina Under 67.5

dume walker · 01-10-12, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

2H: Vanderbilt / South Carolina Under 67.5

Did this not go out on Twitter?

southpaw74 · 01-10-12, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Did this not go out on Twitter?

I got it on twitter

70kgman · 01-10-12, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Did this not go out on Twitter?

Twitter did you a favor. 15 points in the first 2:16 of that 2nd half. This one is toast already.

Not-A-Kid · 01-10-12, 10:26 PM

34 pts in first 6 minutes. Wow. They scored 34 in the entire 1H.

70kgman · 01-10-12, 11:43 PM

2H: Miami / Golden State Over 99

70kgman · 01-10-12, 11:47 PM

Play at own risk. Pretty difficult to encourage anyone to follow anything I play right now. I am 7-22 last 29 plays now. Went from 64% to only a couple units up on the year in less than a week and a half.

socrates01 · 01-10-12, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Play at own risk. Pretty difficult to encourage anyone to follow anything I play right now. I am 7-22 last 29 plays now. Went from 64% to only a couple units up on the year in less than a week and a half.

Let's get this one 70k!!

benrama · 01-11-12, 12:11 AM

I was going to bet the Mia over as well, but in the NBA at the moment the scoring/style/tempo is flipping at the half at an uncanny rate - makes 2H betting pretty much unplayable right now I think, you almost need to watch the first few minutes of it and then live bet.

socrates01 · 01-11-12, 12:59 AM

we need ot