2H: Cal Irvine / Pacific Over 73
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Overtime in the Utah game.
That is three days in a row getting screwed over by a OT. Figures, the only under I take all night too.
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I'm getting sick of these kids not defending and letting these games go to overtimeComment -
Another damn overtime. Just killing meComment -
I ended up pushing under 70 in wash state. Still a crappy break.Comment -
Lost by a half point even with OT, just to rub it in.
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We'll need OT in this one...Comment -
Pacific not even close
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if youre wondering why you started getting screwed by a bunch of garbage past couple days, it's because it happened the moment i started tailing you. started tailing LTProfits like 5 or 6 days ago and i'm not sure if he's had one winning day since. if he did, it was the one day i didn't tail him. sorry, apparently i am a complete ****ing jinx, a black hole of bad luck, it's pretty unrealComment -
And of course they combine to shoot 31% in the 2nd half of that game too.
Sorry guys. Nothing is going right on these plays the last few days, I take an over-they combine to shoot 30% in the 2H. I take an under, it goes to overtime or gets screwed over on some other last second flukey scenario.
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Updated Record: 64-43-2
NCAAB
1H: 0-0
2H: 54-36-2
NBA
1H: 3-2
2H: 7-4
FG: 0-1Comment -
Well can't win them all 70kg,
Even w OT we lost by 1/2 point.
Thanks for the hard work, we'll get them tomorrow
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Had a bad feeling about the Pacific. I live a few miles from campus and watch quite a few of their games. This years team is very very very bad offensively and are really not capable of playing two good halves.Comment -
Thanks for the work KeeLoe. All of my betting lately is sh!t, so I am just going to go REAL small until it turns around. Keep on keeping on. Discipline, Smart Money Management, Research
I already gave you some points at Poker tonight.Comment -
1/6
1st Half: Portland / Phoenix Over 98
1st Half: Toronto / New Jersey Under 92
1st Half: Chicago / Orlando Under 92
1st Half: Boston / Indiana Under 94Comment -
Added Tor/NJ 1H U92 to the card.Comment -
Added CHI/ORL 1H U92 to the card.Comment -
Not to sound full of myself, but I strongly suspect DSI is moving lines a 1/2 point based on what I play. They did both take away my loyalty and limited me within the last week.
1. Played the Phoenix 1H over 98. DSI move the line to 98.5 within minutes. Only book out there to move line from 98 to 98.5. No other book ever moved off 98.
2. Played the Toronto 1H under. DSI move the line to 91.5 within minutes, and 10+ minutes before any other book moved off 92.
3. Just played the Chicago 1H under 92 even though the line movement showed no life toward the under at the time. Within minutes, the line moves to 91.5. DSI are currently the only book at 91.5. No other book moved off 92, or even juiced the under 92.Comment -
Thanks for the work, KeeLoe. I am on all 3, but small for now. Which time did you win the Poker tourney today - I played at 8am, didn't see you there - damn good showing, but yesterday will be the last time I sit at a poker table with you until I win a Poker tourney - you are WAY out of my league.
Anyone looking for a Superbowl box, I set up a webpage for my kids hockey team with one (the team gets 20%) - check it out, only takes a minute. http://www.ljnljn.com
BOL GL
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I won the noon poker tournament this afternoon, funnily enough because I forgot to join the midnight one last night which is the one I usually play. That is usually when I am updating my model and stuff, and it is nice to have something going on in the background while I work. I do pretty well with the SBR poker, don't think I would consider myself very good at poker though. Average at best. I wouldn't play for real money.Thanks for the work, KeeLoe. I am on all 3, but small for now. Which time did you win the Poker tourney today - I played at 8am, didn't see you there - damn good showing, but yesterday will be the last time I sit at a poker table with you unless I get a lot better - you are WAY out of my league.
Anyone looking for a Superbowl box, I set up a webpage for my kids hockey team with one (the team gets 20%) - check it out, only takes a minute. http://www.ljnljn.com
BOL GL
And I will definitely pick up a square later tonight. It is going to a good cause, and I am a hockey guy myself.Comment -
I use DSI also and i've been noticing that they've been moving the line by 1/2 or a point after you post your plays. It may be a coincidence, but it really sucks getting a line that's 1/2 off when other books haven't moved the line at all. The phx/portland play was up to 99 at one point at DSI, while other books stayed at 98. Anyways, keep up the good work and good luck tonight on your plays.Comment -
Not surprised you are moving lines at all. Keep it going
Also why do you prefer1h in the nba v full game totalsComment -
A few reasons.
1. I am mainly an under bettor when it comes to NBA. 1H wagers mean I don't have the possibility of OT, or a ridiculous amount intentional free throws in the final minute to ruin good picks. Basically eliminates most of the unpredictable flukey last minute/second bad luck type scenarios that I have been screwed on left and right with these 2H wagers lately.
2. The 1H generally has a more consistent/predictable flow to it. Once you get into the 2H, the score/margin of lead has a large affect on the whether the pace speeds up, or slows down, or stays relatively the same.
3. There are extra layers of value that can be applied to 1H totals that cant be used for full game totals. For example, the number I play not only making sense from where I have it capped, but making sense in proportion to the full game total. I got the Phoenix Over at 98, which is currently 49.8% of the full game total (196.5). On average in the NBA, roughly 50.6% of the overall scoring is done in the 1H, so getting a number that is 49.8% of the full game total already has some value to it even without any kind of angle on the game.
4. The only downside to 1H wagers is the time frame is cut in half, so it takes a much smaller amount of variance or luck in the wrong direction to prevent a wager from winning then it would over a full game sample size.Comment -
70kgman...
I like all your bets except the Suns / Portland O98 1H bet. I have the game capped at under the posted total, so that's the main reason I disagree. Was wondering what stats you used in determining that play or what insight you can give me
Thanks in advance
RickComment -
I wouldn't be surprised if both hit. In short, both these teams seem to be consistently putting up high scoring first halfs and low scoring 2nd halfs. My 1st half wagers are based on 1st half numbers/trends only, so I guess I am not surprised my model came up with the 1st over over as a good play for that game considering Portland have gone over the 1st half total 3 straight and 4 of last 5 games, and Phoenix 3 of last 4 games. The steady line movement toward the over all day long really only can be seen as a good sign on top of it.Comment -
One more late addition to the card (post #611). Bos/Ind 1H U94. Starts in 20 minutes.Comment -
BOL on your plays today. Hope we can both hit our Suns / Portland play. Look forward to your half-time playsComment -
Nets cash and celtics look good
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