70kgman 11-12 hoops, ect...

[socrates01]

ot! i'll take it. lets go!

[dlunc3]

this is what gets you back on track.. just needed to catch this break, and now you will start rolling again

[70kgman]

They combined shoot 32.3% in that 2nd half. The NBA game I took the under on they combined to shoot over 50% in the 2H. I need to try and figure out the flaw in what I am doing, I cant just be that unlucky to where the shooting variance is in the wrong direction of "average" on at least 75% of the wagers I am making, both NBA and NCAA, which is not even a slight exaggeration either. Lots of them ending up 10%+ off average as well which is ridiculous. Probably more than half of even my wins I am winning on pace alone (which is mainly what I base my 2H capping around), not because I am getting any help with the shooting percentages.

[socrates01]

Stay positive, thanks 70k. Nice hit.

[70kgman]

Updated Record: 68-57-2

NCAAB
1H: 0-2
2H: 55-39-2

NBA
1H: 5-6
2H: 8-8
FG: 0-2

[benrama]

They combined shoot 32.3% in that 2nd half. The NBA game I took the under on they combined to shoot over 50% in the 2H. I need to try and figure out the flaw in what I am doing, I cant just be that unlucky to where the shooting variance is in the wrong direction of "average" on at least 75% of the wagers I am making, both NBA and NCAA, which is not even a slight exaggeration either. Lots of them ending up 10%+ off average as well which is ridiculous. Probably more than half of even my wins I am winning on pace alone (which is mainly what I base my 2H capping around), not because I am getting any help with the shooting percentages.

I think you can't over-analyse - the simple conclusion is that the 2H can't be capped right now.

[70kgman]

2H: Philadelphia / New York Under 98

[SlickRick1382]

2H: Philadelphia / New York Under 98

Like that play. Was thinking the same myself.

[70kgman]

1/12

1st Half: Siena / Rider Over 65.5

1st Half: Pacific / CSU Northridge Over 60.5

[70kgman]

I made some tweaks to the NCAA 1H model/capping. It is massively layered now so anything I end up playing will make sense from just about every mathematical angle possible. I wont say I am confident, but I will just say I would be shocked and disappointed if they did poorly from this point forward.

[aussieH]

I just have to say it is great to see mathematics finally put to good use.

[70kgman]

2H: Wisconsin / Purdue Over 63

[SlickRick1382]

Congrats on cashing the Siena over easily

[mikea33]

in..

[70kgman]

2H: Western Kentucky / North Texas Over 74

[dume walker]

2H: Wisconsin / Purdue Over 63

Don't know how this one went over. Must've been fouling like crazy in that last minute. Thanks for the winner, K Man!

[SlickRick1382]

2-0

Let's go

[70kgman]

Don't know how this one went over. Must've been fouling like crazy in that last minute. Thanks for the winner, K Man!

They were fouling like crazy at the end. But such a low 2H total on a game in a game I was pretty certain would end up in that 4-8 point range into the closing minutes (which means intentional foul fest) weighed heavily into my decision to play it, so I am not going to call it lucky. Plus it ended up covering by 10 points, so I didn't even need half of them.

[dume walker]

They were fouling like crazy at the end. But such a low 2H total on a game in a game I was pretty certain would end up in that 4-8 point range into the closing minutes (which means intentional foul fest) weighed heavily into my decision to play it, so I am not going to call it lucky. Plus it ended up covering by 10 points, so I didn't even need half of them.

Great insight!

[70kgman]

I missed on the score of that North Texas game correct though. Too bad that turned into a blowout, it would of went over easily otherwise. They basically just ran the clock out the final 4 minutes and it ended up losing by 1 point. Had the final 41 seconds to get that 1 point too, couldn't get that one final bucket, and obviously no intentional fouls with a 17 point lead.

[dume walker]

I missed on the score of that North Texas game correct though. Too bad that turned into a blowout, it would of went over easily otherwise. They basically just ran the clock out the final 4 minutes and it ended up losing by 1 point. Had the final 41 seconds to get that 1 point too, couldn't get that one final bucket, and obviously no intentional fouls with a 17 point lead.

Appreciate the work you put into your new layering.

[dume walker]

Did we win that Pacific/UC Northridge over or not? SBR scoreboard shows halftime score at 37-27, which puts us over 61, which is what I got it at. But 5 Dimes has graded it as a loss.

[70kgman]

Did we win that Pacific/UC Northridge over or not? SBR scoreboard shows halftime score at 37-27, which puts us over 61, which is what I got it at. But 5 Dimes has graded it as a loss.

5dimes graded it as a win for me.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Did we win that Pacific/UC Northridge over or not? SBR scoreboard shows halftime score at 37-27, which puts us over 61, which is what I got it at. But 5 Dimes has graded it as a loss.

Did you accidentally put it in as u61? I've done that a couple of times

[dume walker]

I did put the wager in correctly. 5 Dimes graded it wrong, then made the correction on their own. Thanks for 3-1 night, K Man!

[70kgman]

Updated Record: 72-58-2

NCAAB
1H: 2-2
2H: 56-40-2

NBA
1H: 5-6
2H: 9-8
FG: 0-2

[aussieH]

Good night. Was able to follow the 1H plays. Cheers.

[Full-Grown]

Way to get back on track Kilo. Keep it going!!!

[70kgman]

2H: Princeton / Cornell Over 68

[truanswer]

Close one but I will take the win!

[mrtsummit]

Winner , winner chicken dinner1

[dume walker]

2H: Princeton / Cornell Over 68

Wasn't able to track this except by the ongoing box score. I'm guessing your close game/foul fest strategy came into play. Thanks for the winner!

[70kgman]

Wasn't able to track this except by the ongoing box score. I'm guessing your close game/foul fest strategy came into play. Thanks for the winner!

I wont ever take a 2H over unless I expect it to be a single digit game at the end, which will mean at least some FT's in most cases. Don't know if that could be considered a strategy, more just being logical. They sure made me sweat out the ending of that one though with Cornell going 3-8 on free throws in the final minute, and Princeton not scoring a single point in the final minute and a half.

[70kgman]

Regret not playing that Niagara 2H over. Had the wager all punched in and everything, just couldn't bring myself to hit "submit". Loved the pace of the game. But laid off because it was a 14 point lead at HT, thought that score might stifle the pace. Clearly it didn't, it is already over the total with a few minutes to go.

[dume walker]

Regret not playing that Niagara 2H over. Had the wager all punched in and everything, just couldn't bring myself to hit "submit". Loved the pace of the game. But laid off because it was a 14 point lead at HT, thought that score might stifle the pace. Clearly it didn't, it is already over the total with a few minutes to go.

Not that you don't have enough math to content with already, but have you ever kept track of how your leans have performed? Would be interesting to see if in the long run they peform signficantly above breakeven. I'm not a numbers guy like yourself, but wouldn't that be enough to qualify them as worth wagering on?