EP36's Red Rover Red Rover, Let These Games Go OVER

[EaglesPhan36]

2.10.11 (9:00pm ET) CENTENARY-SOUTHERN UTAH OVER 141 [-110]
Both teams have gone OVERs in eight of their last ten. Both struggling big time defensively with Centenary yielding 82 ppg on the season on 49% shooting. Southern Utah has allowed 50% shooting and 80 ppg over their last five which is up from the 75 they allow for the season on 46% shooting. Centenary has given up 71 or more in 14 straight. They have scored 60 or better now in ten straight. First meeting this season ended with 163 points. Centenary games have averaged 47 FTAs over their last five with southern Utah games averaging almost 50. Free throws could loom large. Both are shooting much better through their last five from the line. Centenary though is just 63% for the year. OVERs are 14 of 18 in Southern Utah games with posted totals, four of six at home.

[EaglesPhan36]

Absolute shit shooting all-around. Got a ton of FTs, but both reverted to crap shooting there and both were very bad from the field. Oh well, lose some, lose some.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 13-9 [+3.10]

2.12.11 (12:00pm ET) NORTHEASTERN TEAM TOTAL OVER 62.5 [-110]
The Huskies travel to take on Georgia State today and they are in a very solid run of offensive form right now. They have scored 70 or more in six straight, which includes a 70 point performance against this Georgia State squad. It will still be a challenge as Georgia State allows just 38% FG shooting at home and 64 ppg. Northeastern is averaging 61 ppg on the road this season, but they have played some very tough defensive squads that have skewed those numbers slightly. Northeastern can be a big three point shooting team, netting 41% on the road this season and almost 45% over their last five games where they are shooting 52% as a whole. They are also a solid FT shooting team at 73% for the season, but over 80% in their last five. Chiasson Allen will be the man to watch again. He had 22 in the 1st meeting.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

i like the huskies today about time they woke up they are a good team that shot like shat in the beginning of the season.gl EP

[BiffTFinancial]

like your pick, EP36. i have NE scoring 70. BOL with your play.

[asdfghasdfgh]

Nice hit in OT!

[EaglesPhan36]

2.12.11 (4:00pm ET) IOWA STATE-KANSAS OVER 153 [-110]
The Jayhawks have been absolutely crushing it on offense lately with six straight games of 82 plus points and 80 or more in seven of their last nine. At home, KU shoots a solid 53% and puts up 84 ppg. Iowa State has been struggling mightily on defense lately, allowing 88 ppg on 48% shooting over their last five. KU should have a shot to light it up from beyond the arc where they are nailing 41% on the season at home, while the Cyclones are allowing almost 45% from distance over their last five. Iowa State has been good at putting up points to keep up with their lackluster defense with ISU scoring 69 or more in eight of their last ten. KU only gives up about 62 ppg at home, but ISU only averages 65 on the road anyhow. The good thing is KU has given up 65 or more in seven straight, a direct by-product I think of their own offense and tempo. Both teams have seen OVERs in six of their last eight overall. It's a big number, but in games posted between 150-159.5 this season, the two teams have gone OVERs in six of eight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 15-9 [+5.10]

Gonna go look over the night matches, probably play one more tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.12.11 (10:00pm ET) LONG BEACH STATE-CS NORTHRIDGE OVER 150 [-110]
Two up-tempo squads here in the Big West. Both have been shooting the rock well of late with Long Beach at a 49% clip, averaging almost 80 ppg in their last five. CSN is putting up 73 ppg on 48% shooting over their last five. Northridge is lethal at home, putting up 77 ppg on 49% shooting. Long Beach has given up plenty of points on the road, 76 per game on 47% shooting. The Niners are solid scoring though with a 73 ppg road average. Northridge has hit OVERs in six of their seven posted games. Long Beach has seen OVERs in eight of 13 on the road, including four straight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 15-10 [+4.00]

28 missed FTs and Northridge scored just 62. Zoiks.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.13.11 (2:00pm ET) FAIRFIELD-ST.PETER'S OVER 116 [-110]
St.Peter's has been in sold form at home. They average 70 ppg on 45% shooting, much better than their overall average of just 60 ppg on 40% shooting. As a result, OVERs have hit in five straight home games for the Peacocks. Fairfield is a tough defensive team that allows just 56 ppg on the road and 41% shooting. Lately though, the Stags have been a bit more giving with teams scoring 67 ppg on 42% shooting. Fairfield only puts up about 60 per game on the road, while St.Peter's is stout at home allowing 58 ppg. However, opponents have scored 60 or more in three of their last four home games. Fairfield has only seen OVERs in two of nine on the road, but seven of those have beaten this low number.

[Rick22]

Thanks for the nice write up - you convinced me. GL

[Rick22]

Nice call - and then we get OT yet - lol

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 16-10 [+5.00]

Yee haw.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.14.11: (9:00pm ET) KANSAS-KANSAS STATE OVER 145 [-105]
Big rivalry game in Manhattan, bigger for the underachieving Wildcats obviously. Kansas has been on quite the scoring streak with 80 or more points in six straight and eight of their last ten overall. That includes laying 90 on these Wildcats at Allen Field House in a 90-66 Jayhawks win. Rock Chalk Jayhawk. Kansas has been deadly shooting the rock lately at 56% over their last five games. They shoot almost 50% on the road and average 81 ppg away from home. K-State has some good home defensive numbers with a 62 ppg average on 41% shooting, but they haven't played anything close to an elite scoring team at home. So, I'll say those numbers are a tad skewed. The good news for Kansas State is they definitely shoot better at home, 80 ppg on 45% shooting. The bad news? KU defends well, 68 ppg on 40% shooting. The 68 is basically a product of the Jayhawks tempo. Rock Chalk Jayhawk. If they push the tempo and run their efficient offense, points happen for both teams. KU has given up 65 points or more in eight straight and nine of ten overall. OVERs are seven of ten on the road for KU. Watch out for the Jayhawks on the three point line tonight. They are white hot at 46% in their last five games and K-State is allowing 38% from distance at home. Also watch the Wildcats who shoot 41% from beyond the arc at home against a KU defense that only gives up 30% shooting from 3 on the road, but has been a little leaky lately - giving up 37% in their last five. Don't expect a ton of help from FTs. Both have issues from the charity stripe, although I do expect we may see a good number of FTs with K-State unlikely to give up easy hoops.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-10 [+6.00]

Spank that ass. Not exactly the way anyone expected the score to go, but cash is cash!

[EaglesPhan36]

2.15.11 (7:00pm ET) MIAMI-UNC GREENSBORO OVER 150 [-110]
A big number here, but a good shot with the match-up. The Hurricanes will use this as a chance to get out their ACC frustrations where they've lost eight of ten. Miami has shot the ball well of late, 45% and 68 ppg. They average 68 on the road, but shoot a low percentage at 40%. They should have a chance to do damage though against a Greensboro side giving up 80 ppg on 47% shooting. At home, Greensboro is averaging 70 ppg on 43% shooting. Miami has given up 72 ppg on 45% shooting away from home. The Hurricanes have given up 70 or more in seven of their eight on the road. Greensboro home games have seen OVERs in nine of 12 this season. They've also seen OVERs in four of six games when the total has been set between 150-159.5 and they have played seven straight that exceeded tonight's posted number, eight OVERs in a row in all. Against ACC sides, Greensboro has been helpless giving up 108 to Duke, 71 to Clemson, 69 to Wake, 99 to Maryland, 92 to Virginia Tech and 97 to Florida State. It's been awhile since Miami got to a cupcake that they could tee off on, but they have shown the ability with 94 layed on Pepperdine, 87 on Florida Gulf Coast, 79 on McNeese State, 88 on NC Central and 89 against Jacksonville to their credit. So long as Miami is willing to engage the Spartans up-tempo style, I believe this has a legit shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-11 [+4.90]

Gonna skip today. I had a couple that I think have a chance, but it feels like I'm pushing it to make them fit instead of them naturally fitting. If I had played one, Michigan-Illinois was one I was beginning to like a bit.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.17.11 (7:00pm ET) RICHMOND-TEMPLE OVER 131 [-110]
Temple is quietly sticking as an OVERs squad this season. They have hit OVERs in 14 of 22 posted games and eight of ten at home. The Owls are posting a solid 75 ppg on 47% shooting at home, allowing 59 ppg on 39% shooting. Temple has scored 70+ in eight strait and nine of ten overall. The Spiders have scored at least 61 points in 15 straight games. Richmond is also solid shooting on the road at 46%, netting 73 ppg. They allow just 39% shooting and 65 ppg away from home. Richmond has hit OVERs in four of their last five on the road. It's efficient offense vs. efficient defense on both sides.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-12 [+3.80]

Richmond screwed that one pretty good last night with a poor performance. Still thought it was going to get there, but absolutely no fouls in that game to help out. At least there are some non-Ivy League options for a Friday night!

[EaglesPhan36]

2.18.11 (7:00pm ET) PENNSYLVANIA-BROWN OVER 142 [-110]
Still showing the Ivy League love anywho. Brown love to push the tempo and score very well at home, averaging 79 ppg on 49% shooting. That's right on par with their average over their last five. They should be able to find some clean three point looks against Penn which gives up 38% on the road. Brown hit 11/28 from distance in the first meeting. Penn nets 64 ppg on the road on 45% shooting. Brown defends poorly though at 46% and 74 ppg at home. Over their last five, Brown is giving up almost 80 ppg. The Bears have given up 70 or much more in six of their last eight. That includes 80 to Penn in OT [73 in regulation]. Penn is giving up 72 ppg on the road. Teams that can score, generally have when the Quakers hit the road. Brown has only failed to top 79 points at home in two of their eight home games. They have also given up at least 67 in that same amount.

[hankcream]

Nice find and good write-up, I was looking for a game to play over on tonight and this one looks much better than UConn / Loisville. Good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

This is boned in the 1st half. No pace and Brown shooting like crapola. They'll need OT just to have a shot or an endless foul parade in the 2nd half. Seeing as there are 3 team fouls right now, unlikely.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-13 [+2.70]

2.19.11 (2:00PM ET) COLORADO-KANSAS OVER 153.5 [-110]
Kansas has not hit OVERs in seven straight and should be a foul mood at home today coming off the loss to Kansas State. The Jayhawks remain one of the most efficient offenses in the country, shooting 52% at home and averaging 84 ppg. Over their last five, those averages are right on the mark or slightly better. The 68 pt. output against K-State was their worst in six games that saw KU score 82 or better during that streak. Colorado nets almost 72 ppg on the road, giving up almost 77 ppg on 47% shooting. The Buffs have had trouble defending the three on the road at 39%, while KU is shooting 40% from beyond the arc at home. KU has averaged 94 ppg over their last three at home and should light it up against a Colorado team that won't mind the quick tempo. First meeting in January finished at 160 in Boulder. Both teams shot well in that one at over 48% and superb from deep [19/37 combined].

[EaglesPhan36]

2.19.11 (4:00pm ET) VMI-MORGAN STATE OVER 165 [-110]
This is a monster total, but this is VMI. They are the #1 tempo team in the country and they only no one speed. They average 85 ppg and give up just one point less than that average. Morgan State is netting almost 72 ppg at home this season on 42% shooting. Those numbers should be bigger today as the Cadets give up 86 ppg on the road on 48% shooting. Morgan State has not typically been a good 3 point shooting team [30%] but they are hitting 39% in their last five and VMI is allowing over 41% from distance in that span and 37% from beyond the arc on the road. Lest ye be scared of this number, consider VMI's road totals this season:

185, 191, 182, 188, 176, 173, 155, 168, 166, 148, 171

Just two games hitting below this total today. VMI loves to shoot the three and while Morgan State's three point numbers look impressive statistically, they have been beaten from deep against teams that can shoot the 3 ball. They were reamed for 17 threes by Louisville earlier this season. If VMI hits their threes, this one despite it's scary number will be on target to go over.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bad streak this week. Kansas & Colorado score two in the final two minutes and finish at 152.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 17-15 [+0.50]

Gonna take a day or two off of these and go with the 2nd half plays only. Not in a good run of form with these lately between bad luck and bad picks.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.21.11 (7:00pm ET) SAMFORD-CHARLESTON OVER 136 [-110]
Very little thought here. Charleston is solid at home, shooting 49% and scoring 81 ppg. Samford, while good defensively for the most part, has come apart at the seams on D in their last five. They have allowed 50% shooting and 70 ppg in that span. On the road, they allow 67 ppg. Charleston's defense has been good all season. They allow 65 ppg at home on 43% shooting. They have had some issues defending the 3 pt. line lately where Samford can do some damage. Samford puts up just 60 on the road. Charleston would do well to get to the line where they are around 75% on the season and over 80% in their last five.

[EaglesPhan36]

17-16 [-0.60]

2.27.11 (1:00pm ET) UNC-WILMINGTON vs. NORTHEASTERN OVER 132.5 [110]
Northeastern has seen OVERs hit in nine of ten home games with posted totals this season. 13 of their last 15 overall have hit OVERs. At home, the Huskies average nearly 70 ppg on 46% shooting. UNC-Wilmington gives up 71 on the road on 44% shooting. Wilmington only nets about 61 ppg on the road, but may find some room against a Huskies D that has been porous ast home. Northeastern has allowed 48% shooting and 39% from distance. Wilmington is netting 38% from beyond the arc on the season. In the first meeting, the two teams combined for 16 of 41 from deep an both shot FTs well in that game which ended at 136. Overall this season, Northeastern has quietly been a consistent OVERs squad with 19 of 26 posted games hitting in that direction.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.27.11 (4:00pm ET) KANSAS-OKLAHOMA OVER 144 [-105]
Kansas remains one of the most efficient offensive clubs in the country and that has led to 17 OVERs in 26 posted games this season. KU remains red hot, averaging 88 ppg over their last five on almost 53% shooting. OU will have a tough time stopping the Jayhawks with the Sooners yielding around 70 ppg in their last five on almost 50% shooting. OU should be able to help this total as they shoot much better at home, 47% and close to 70 ppg. KU gives up close to 70 ppg on the road due to their tempo. KU has given up at least 63 points now in eleven straight. Kansas is still in line for a #1 seed, so they cannot afford any sort of let-up at this stage. Even with Taylor still suspended, KU knows how to score and execute their offense. If Oklahoma can get into the 60s, this should have a solid shot to cash.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.27.11 (5:30pm ET) IUPUI-CENTENARY OVER 140.5 [-110]
Centenary will be trippin' balls tonight after winning their 1st game of the year last time out after losing 28 straight. These are two poor defenses that are giving up a lot of points lately. IUPUI is yielding 79 ppg on 52% shooting in their last five. Centenary is giving up almost 81 ppg on close to 50% shooting in that same span. Centenary has been Swiss Cheese at home all season, giving up 83 ppg on 51% shooting. That should give IUPUI chances to score plenty tonight as the Jags are scoring 74 ppg over their last five on 48% shooting. IUPUI has scored at least 68 in nine of their last ten and in seven straight. They have given up 69 or better in seven straight. Centenary has given up at least 70 in 17 of their last 18. The first meeting ended with 146. OVERs are 6-1 at home for Centenary and IUPUI has hit OVERs in eight of their last nine posted games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 19-16 [+1.40]

[EaglesPhan36]

2.27.11 (7:30pm ET) UL-LAFAYETTE vs. UL-MONROE OVER 134 [-110]
Two polar opposites in terms of style here as Lafayette prefers a run and gun style whereas Monroe is much more of a half court team. Still, Monroe has not had issues with playing fast teams at the fast team's preferred tempo. Monroe is not good defensively as they allow 48% shooting on the season and around 69 ppg. Lately, they have been even worse with teams shooting 51% against them in the last five. Lafayette is not efficient offensively with 64 ppg on the road, but they have topped 70 points in their last three straight away from home. They also come in on a 10 game win streak and they beat Monroe 84-75 back in January. Both teams can get real hot from distance, so watch for the threes [40% plus for both in their last 5]. Not high volume, but very effective on those long shots. 11 of the last 15 for Monroe have gone OVERs, six of nine at home have hit for OVERs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ick on these last two. Very similar shit 1st halves. Centenary gave finished 135 after a 48 pt. first half. Anything decent in the 1st half would have gotten it done. This last game - 22 pts in the 1st five minutes and now like 22 pts in the next 15. Sheeshkabobble.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.27.11 (11:00pm ET) PORTLAND-ST.MARY'S OVER 142.5 [-110]