EP36's Red Rover Red Rover, Let These Games Go OVER

[EaglesPhan36]

Tried this in some other sports, so going to work on it to finish off the college hoops season. By DNA, I love offense. I find it hard to root for UNDERs, so I normally gravitate to OVERs. For this thread, I will play 1-2 plays MAX each day if I see a total worthy of an OVER shot. Tracking it here. So whatever you wanna do with this information, play it, fade it, whatever. Just simply looking to get those OVERs cashed! All wagers are for one unit.

1.22.11 (3pm ET): SOUTHERN MISSISIPPI-SMU OVER 131 [-110]
Southern Miss likes to push the tempo, while SMU prefers more of a half court set. So a bit of a stylistic clash. Both teams are struggling defensively in their last five with Southern Miss allowing 50% shooting and SMU 47%. Should be a recipe for points with two solid shooting clubs. Southern Miss averages 77 per game, SMU 55. The Mustangs shoot 48% at home, around 40% from distance. Both shoots FTs well and Southern Miss is foul prone, averaging 20 personal fouls per game which ranks in the bottom third or so in D1. Southern Miss roadies have gone OVERs in five of seven when totals were posted this season. They have gone OVERs in five straight.

[EaglesPhan36]

record: 1-0 [+1.00]

[ukbsktbll]

Good start

[EaglesPhan36]

1.23.11 (3pm ET) INDIANA-IOWA OVER 137.5 [-110]
Both teams struggling defensive in their last five. IU is giving up 75 ppg on 46% shooting, while Iowa is giving up 75 ppg on 50% shooting. IU's road defense has been horrible, giving up almost 80 ppg. Iowa has gone OVERs in five of nine, including four of the last five. IU is hitting OVERs in five of seven on the road. In this series, eight of the last ten have gone OVERs. Indiana is in the bottom portion of D1, averaging 20 fouls per game so FTs could come into play which is always a welcomed sight for OVERs. Three pointers should loom large with IU struggling to guard the arc on the road and of late, giving up around 40%.

[EaglesPhan36]

record: 2-0 [+2.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.24.11 (9pm ET) SC STATE-NORFOLK STATE OVER 141.5 [-110]
Two teams that like to push the tempo in the MEAC. You have also have two very average or below average defenses. SC State yields 77 ppg on 47% shooting, while Norfolk gives up 75 ppg on 45% shooting. SC State's road defense is even more atrocious, allowing 82 ppg on 48% shooting. That should bode well for Norfolk which is flying at home in limited action with 75 ppg on 47% shooting. SC State is a pretty foul prone club, hacking opponents about 21 times per game which should yield some FT opps. Both teams are streaky from three.

[EaglesPhan36]

record: 3-0 [+3.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.25.11 (7pm ET): NC STATE-CLEMSON OVER 138 [-110]
You've got a struggling defense for the Wolfpack against a Clemson club shooting 50% at home this season. That's a good start. The Tigers average 73.5 ppg at home, while NC State is giving up almost 77 ppg on the road and allowing 48% shooting over their last five. Clemson has put up 75 ppg over their last five, shooting a solid 47% from the floor. Clemson has scored 71 or better in five of their last six at home. NC State has allowed no less than 65 in any of their five road games with four of those seeing them allow 72, 87, 82 & 84 points. Both teams can drain the three. NC State has gone OVERs in six of eight posted road games. Clemson has gone OVERs at home in four of seven and in four straight overall. Both offenses rank in the top 25% in terms of efficiency per possession.

[P25]

I'm like you - much prefer betting the overs. Will keep an eye on this thread - BOL!

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-1 [+1.90]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.26.11 (7pm ET) SOUTHERN MISS-EAST CAROLINA OVER 142 [-110]
Southern Miss continues to be a good road OVER as they have now seen six of eight posted road games hit OVERs. Six straight overall have gone OVERs for Southern Miss. Most due to poor defense as they give up 78 ppg on the road and have yielded 52% shooting in their last five. ECU should light it up as they shoot very well at home, 48% overall and 43% from three. They average 70 ppg at home, but have come up against some very solid defenses - so more could be expected tonight. The Pirates have shown a good ability getting to the FT line & Southern Miss does foul a bit. ECU needs to make a better percentage. Southern Miss is solid from the line.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-1 [+2.90]

[gilbert91016]

[sweethook]

nice work man , i like cbb totals also but dam sure not the nba totals /gl

[Vaioice]

Ov 142 Townson/GMU ...

[EaglesPhan36]

1.27.11 (8pm ET) SOUTHERN UTAH-ND STATE OVER 145.5 [-110]
These two teams met in December with the total falling at 145 [77-68]. That came despite ND State shooting just 37%. That was on the road where the Bison aren't quite as potent. At home though, ND State averages 78 ppg on 50% shooting and have scored 76 or better in seven straight. Southern Utah's defense has allowed 75 ppg on the road against 46% shooting. Eight of their ten roadies have gone OVERs where they have given up 72 or more in eight straight. Six of seven overall for Southern Utah have gone OVERs. Southern Utah may be able to pick on ND State's D again which is giving up 72 ppg over their last five on almost 49% shooting, 46% from distance. Southern Utah ranks #322 out of #335 in fouls committed per game, so FTs should stack up. ND State needs to make a better percentage.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5-1 [+3.90]

[asdfghasdfgh]

Good work here man!

[EaglesPhan36]

1.28.11 (9:00pm ET) DETROIT-MILWAUKEE OVER 141 [-110]
Milwaukee's defense has been porous most of the season as they allow 70 ppg on 45% shooting. Lately, it's been worse as they have allowed 47% over their last five. Detroit is struggling defensively as well with 77 ppg allowed in their last five and their opponents are hitting at a 47% clip from the field. These two teams met already in Detroit, In regulation, they scored 146 with the game going to OT and ending with 165. Detroit has hit OVERs in seven of their last ten overall and has put up 68 points or better in all but one of their road games this season. Milwaukee has been better at home with their offense lately, hitting for 70 or more in five of their last seven. Overall at home, OVERs have hit six of nine posted games for Milwaukee. FTs will be important in that both teams need more makes. The Titans have gotten to the line at least 30 times in four straight but are hitting only about 66% on the season. Milwaukee is even a little worse than that. In the first meeting, the teams combined were just 32 of 58 from the line. Milwaukee is a streaky three point shooting team. If they get hot early, they could light up Detroit who has had a little trouble defending the arc lately [37%].

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5-2 [+2.80]

That one sucked. Detroit missed two shots in the last five seconds that would have pushed the total. Finished at 139. Too many turnovers in this one overall.

[revnecro1273]

i see you are doing well with it thus far...but i don't get this comment:

"I find it hard to root for UNDERs, so I normally gravitate to OVERs."

that is such a square perspective

[EaglesPhan36]

Using the term square is square.

[gilbert91016]

Nice work. EP

[EaglesPhan36]

1.29.11 (5:00pm ET) TULANE-SOUTHERN MISS OVER 141 [-110]
Drawn again to Southern Miss as they play at home against Tulane. Southern Miss' defensive numbers at home are much better, but their defensive play has been so poor lately that Tulane should have a chance for points today. The Golden Eagles have yielded 51% shooting over their last five, giving up 76 ppg in that stretch. Tulane has been so-so on the road, putting up about 67 ppg on just 42% shooting. In C-USA play, they have put up at least 65 points in all four of their road games. Southern Miss remains a solid scoring team despite their defensive issues, averaging 83 ppg at home on 48% shooting. That matches up well against Tulane who struggles on the road, giving up 48% shooting and has been ripped for 82 ppg on the road in conference play. Southern Miss is four for four in OVERs at home in posted games and have gone OVERs in seven straight. Both teams are solid FT shooters.

[Pick'nParlays]

bol ep!

[Mr Handicapable]

Any thoughts on Baylor/Colorado Over 143.5? Should be a fast pace...Colorado avg. over 80 ppg & Baylor would be better suited to run since their half court shot selection is horrible!

[50cent]

well both teams want to play d-fence today..

[50cent]

tulane cant score at all what is going on with them....

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah that one was horribly off. Hard on days like this with so many games to pick from I think. Other one I liked was Centenary-Oakland at 156. Looking good in the first half so far, but I was doubting Centenary's ability to score for the whole game. Oh well, onward and upward.

Record: 5-3 [+1.70]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.30.11 (2:00pm ET) DUQUESNE-DAYTON OVER 143 [-110]
Both teams are pretty solid defensively, but Duquesne is so good on offense that I think this one rates a good shot. The Dukes are putting up 80 ppg on 47% shooting. 67 is their low output in their last ten and that came at home against slow down specialists St.Louis. Otherwise, they have put up 75 or better in nine of their last ten. At home, Duquesne has put up 78 or better in four of their last five, including a 78-66 win over defensive-minded Temple. While the Dukes play up-tempo, Dayton is somewhere in the middle as far as tempo. Dayton averages 67 ppg on the road and while their defensive numbers at 66 ppg and 39% shooting allowed on the road look good, those are a bit skewed by the level of offensive competition they've met with. Their last road game, they faced a solid Xavier squad that lit them up for 81 points and shot 53% from the floor. As long as Duquesne can dictate tempo, I think they get theirs and Dayton will be forced to score to keep pace.

[RiverBoatGambler]

Great job EP. Keep up the good work. I love playing totals, not sure how I've been missing your thread. Hopefully the UD and Duq will keep putting up the points for ya!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Just slipped past today at 146!

Record: 6-3 [+2.70]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.31.11 (8:30pm ET) N.ARIZONA-N.COLORADO OVER 137.5 [-110]
Northern Colorado's road defense has struggled all season as they allow 77 ppg on 47% shooting. The Bears have given up less than 70 points on the road just once in eleven games. That should mean good things for Northern Arizona with the Lumberjacks shooting a robust 47% and taking home 74 ppg on their home floor. They allow just 61 ppg, but Northern Colorado is netting 73 ppg on the road on 45% shooting so they should test this bunch. They've eclipsed the 70 point mark on the road in eight games. OVERs have hit eight of 12 games for the Bears on the road and the Lumberjacks have seen OVERs at home in three of four posted games. Both offenses are efficient, not high octane with deadly three point shooters [both teams make over 40%]. FTs could be big especially with Northern Colorado as they shoot 77%, one of the better percentages in D1.

[RiverBoatGambler]

On it with you EP!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Worst shooting ever. NAU 30% at the half against a bad defense. Sheesh. No chance really unless we get double OT. So let's do double OT.