Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

[TxBulldog]

[quote=GGZOLA;8330327]Bulldog, do you mind posting all together your elite 8? quote]


Dunc system
Seton Hall
UTEP
G. Mason
Duke
UNLV
Colorado
Colo St.
Clemson
Furman

Kine system
Toledo
Fordham

This is the last I will be able to access the site for the day....Hope this is the final list

[Anthony212]

How is the spread for furman that high? When davidson doesn't have a win

[Heandog]

well boys i'm a football specialist and been struggling so i'm gonna follow this. Took toledo +13 and fordham +10 risking 250 to win 680. Let's see.

gdoom good luck hope u hit ,this system was put together starting 2nd week of feb you may want to be a little more patience and trac it for yourself for a while before going overboard

[Heandog]

bulldog,
do you mind posting all together your elite 8? Thx.

Guys,
kenpom goes a way back to 2003 which is great. However, the rankings of ncaabb teams on previous years only show final ratings after ncaa tourney.
My assumption is that teams dont show a sharp jump from bottom tier to 180 or better (at least not that many) in feb/march, so what i can do, if anyone is interested, is go back a few years, matchup teams that fit the -6/180 or worse criteria (just based on final rankings have no choice) but at least will give us a general idea how the games fared? What do you guys think?

if you can get the rankings be my guest any bit of info always helps

[Heandog]

[quote=Aussiecapper101;8328695]its actually suprising me we are getting +13 on toledo, last year the highest spreads we got were about that so this will be good to see where its at.. Hey just remember we are backing these underdogs purely because of system.. usually if one of these plays lose its because the team is pathetic and they get blown right out from opening tip off, Im not saying thats going to happen tomorrow Im just telling you thats how it works so no-one is laughing at us if a team loses by 30 or whatever.. its about the long run with this system and february being the main month, anyway good luck Im on them for 1.5x each [Very well put could not agree more

[jnsbanman]

Just out of curiousity... Bulldog have you been tracking your picks? If so could you post your record and from when till when. Thanks... you guys rock!

[DuncHen22]

How is the spread for furman that high? When davidson doesn't have a win

Davidson is 7-8... but I'm still not sure why the spread is so high

[Anthony212]

Davidson is 7-8... but I'm still not sure why the spread is so high

After some reasearch the last time they played together was feb, 20th 2010 davidson won 61-58, but furman had a record of 12-14 and davidson had a record of 13-13. January, 13 2010 they played Furman lost 81-86. Furman's record was 8-7 going into that game and Davidson was 7-9. Also davidson is 21-1 when playing furman dating back to 1997. I think that's why the spread is high for furman. Still, I'm gonna play Furman

[DuncHen22]

Just for peoples' enjoyment I created a little graph of how our picks do on a rolling 10-game stretch. Now keep in mind this isn't fully accurate because there are days that have more than 10 plays (like saturday when there were over 20) and I didn't list them in order of time so that'll throw it off a little.

But as you'll see, there is a bit of fluctuation (as one would expect) but our average has stayed consistent throughout, which is around 2 units per 10 games.

I am bringing this up now because we may not have the greatest of days today since we are at the apex of our roller coaster right now (we're 7-2 in the last 3 days). With so many plays today it's totally feasible to see a regression AND have a positive day, but all I'm saying is don't get discouraged.



The blue line is the rolling number and I included 2 moving averages of that to soften the lines up a bit.

[sporty1]

Damn, I totally messed up that Duke play. It actually opened at -8 and I caught it last night at -9 but now it's down to -7.5

Oh well, here's to hoping for a blowout.

Can you please tell me where you take your opening line from , I would like to follow along .. Please answer .. Anyone ?????

[hairneil]

what is this?

[jerry12345]

good work DuncHen22. I currently have been hittin around 60 % on the college hoops this year, but i look at games individually so it can be quite time consuming. So if your hitting over 60% with a system im gonna start following with interest.

Anyway an interesting finding i made on your picks is as follows:

basically the difference between the opening line and closing line seems to have an interesting effect on the plays in your system.

the way i see it is if the lines in your system move a bad way (1.) i.e if the opening line is +5 and it goes to +7 or if its -5 and goes to -3 this is a worry because if the bookies have adjusted their lines and this happens then there may be a detrimental reason that will affect your plays. i.e. injuries, public money, sharps ect..

VC versa if the (2.) lines moves the other way i.e +7 to +5 or -3 to -5 this is a good thing.

So ive looked at every play you have made in this thread and looked at the percentage of wins you have got when the line moved in a negative way (1.) and the percentage of wins you get when the line moves the other way (2.) and finally when the opening line is the same as the closing line (3.)

the results are as follows (note that ive left about three plays out because they were pushes but every other play you stated has been taken into account)

(1.) negative line movements 22 – 22 = 50 % strike rate

(2.)positive line movements 36 – 16 = 69% strike rate

(3.) no difference between opening and closing line 12 – 8 = 60%


ill see how this adds up when todays plays have finished.

so it would seem so far the plays in your system with positive line movement are the ones to play. sorry if this is a bit unclear, its basically just line movement seems to have a big effect on the plays in your system and could therefore be of use in refining your system as to make it as effective as possible.

[jerry12345]

good work DuncHen22. I currently have been hittin around 60 % on the college hoops this year, but i look at games individually so it can be quite time consuming. So if your hitting over 60% with a system im gonna start following with interest.

Anyway an interesting finding i made on your picks is as follows:

basically the difference between the opening line and closing line seems to have an interesting effect on the plays in your system.

the way i see it is if the lines in your system move a bad way (1.) i.e if the opening line is +5 and it goes to +7 or if its -5 and goes to -3 this is a worry because if the bookies have adjusted their lines and this happens then there may be a detrimental reason that will affect your plays. i.e. injuries, public money, sharps ect..

VC versa if the (2.) lines moves the other way i.e +7 to +5 or -3 to -5 this is a good thing.

So ive looked at every play you have made in this thread and looked at the percentage of wins you have got when the line moved in a negative way (1.) and the percentage of wins you get when the line moves the other way (2.) and finally when the opening line is the same as the closing line (3.)

the results are as follows (note that ive left about three plays out because they were pushes but every other play you stated has been taken into account)

(1.) negative line movements 22 – 22 = 50 % strike rate

(2.)positive line movements 36 – 16 = 69% strike rate

(3.) no difference between opening and closing line 12 – 8 = 60%


ill see how this adds up when todays plays have finished.

so it would seem so far the plays in your system with positive line movement are the ones to play. sorry if this is a bit unclear, its basically just line movement seems to have a big effect on the plays in your system and could therefore be of use in refining your system as to make it as effective as possible.

[GGZOLA]

good stuff jerry
question is, what time is your cut-off for the games; a line can be at -8 for the whole day only to go to -7.5 or -7, etc. in the final 30 minutes before game time.
I am guessing you inputed the closing lines?

[Kimbu]

do we play these ATS for the game or 1H and 2H (if 1H loses)? i see you mentioned both stats and was curious.

Thanks!

[GGZOLA]

Kimbu, thats a very dangerous proposition, because if you win ats 1st half, you stop. If you lose, you have potential of losing 2 halves. So you either win 1st half (i,e. +1.0 unit) or push (win 1.0, lose 1.1)
or double loss (-2.2) so as you see max win is 1 unit, max loss is 2.2 units.

[skipwalker]

Hey Jerry, this is probably an obvious question, but I just wanted to make sure. Is the success rate you calculated for the three types of line movement based on whether the play won against the closing line rather than the line used to determine the play at the start of the day?

E.g. the play for Colorado State was at +10. Right now it's moved to +8.5. Hence it falls into line movement category 2. If Colorado State loses by 9 tonight, this would count as a loss under number 2 above? Correct?

I assume that this is the case, since one can't go back in time and get the better line.

However, if I am correct in understanding your explanation, your numbers seem to indicate that this positive line movement indicates the play could be strong, even at +8.5. The question would be how much movement is too much movement. For CSU, since I believe the KenPom difference was only 2 points (e.g. +8 vs. the opening +10), this is getting really close to what KenPom would suggest the line should be.

[primetime27]

good work DuncHen22. I currently have been hittin around 60 % on the college hoops this year, but i look at games individually so it can be quite time consuming. So if your hitting over 60% with a system im gonna start following with interest.

Anyway an interesting finding i made on your picks is as follows:

basically the difference between the opening line and closing line seems to have an interesting effect on the plays in your system.

the way i see it is if the lines in your system move a bad way (1.) i.e if the opening line is +5 and it goes to +7 or if its -5 and goes to -3 this is a worry because if the bookies have adjusted their lines and this happens then there may be a detrimental reason that will affect your plays. i.e. injuries, public money, sharps ect..

VC versa if the (2.) lines moves the other way i.e +7 to +5 or -3 to -5 this is a good thing.

So ive looked at every play you have made in this thread and looked at the percentage of wins you have got when the line moved in a negative way (1.) and the percentage of wins you get when the line moves the other way (2.) and finally when the opening line is the same as the closing line (3.)

the results are as follows (note that ive left about three plays out because they were pushes but every other play you stated has been taken into account)

(1.) negative line movements 22 – 22 = 50 % strike rate

(2.)positive line movements 36 – 16 = 69% strike rate

(3.) no difference between opening and closing line 12 – 8 = 60%


ill see how this adds up when todays plays have finished.

so it would seem so far the plays in your system with positive line movement are the ones to play. sorry if this is a bit unclear, its basically just line movement seems to have a big effect on the plays in your system and could therefore be of use in refining your system as to make it as effective as possible.

Great info, my question is, what do you consider line movement? You mention +/- 2 in your message, but do you take all +/- line movement ie: +/- .5 and 1? Just curious, because with the line movement and these plays you all may be on to something special. Plus the Bulldog's secret rankings. Anything that helps tighten the plays the better. Once again excellent work guys, ( DuncHen, Bulldog, Jerry, Axis)
On a side note, KineProf system is meant for February, so take those plays with a grain of salt for now. I understand Aussie is up and wants to test it out and i hope he cashes in on them and i am interested to see how they do up until the 2nd week.

[jerry12345]

GGZOLA - yeh i just looked at closing lines. The funny thing is tho that for every play with a 'positive' line move, even if the line has moved from -2 to -4 it still almost always comes in (i know this because thats what i found would happen if you done that with everyone of dunhe22 plays, infact only 1 would have lost as a result of the line movement and one would have pushed - altho by doing this your bound get burnt every once in a while but its no biggie to be honest when you consider a strike rate of 69% is being hit at present - again tho its important to remember that this a new system with relatively limited data so whos knows if it will end up going pear shaped, for now tho it is quite impressive) Essentially this would mean that dunhen22 could make his picks then maybe half hour before kick off, only the plays in dunhen22 system that have postive line movement could be played.

hope this makes sense btw.

[GGZOLA]

This line movement refinement spreading like wildfire now, Here are the plays based on line movement on top of DuncHen's plays, but unfortunately you have to play the adjusted lines, so primetime and skip you do raise a valid point.

I might try this for tonight: go 1 unit for lines that have not changed (pitt +2.5, ball st -6, neb +11, clem -7.5)
In our favor 2 units (seton hall -3, Col.State +8.5.)
should be fun
skipping the negative line movements GL to all no matter what they do
this thread is great, healthy, positive, and chock full of relevant info and data.

[primetime27]

This line movement refinement spreading like wildfire now, Here are the plays based on line movement on top of DuncHen's plays, but unfortunately you have to play the adjusted lines, so primetime and skip you do raise a valid point. I might try this for tonight: go 1 unit for lines that have not changed (pitt +2.5, ball st -6, neb +11, clem -7.5) In our favor 2 units (seton hall -3, Col.State +8.5.) should be fun skipping the negative line movements GL to all no matter what they do this thread is great, healthy, positive, and chock full of relevant info and data.

I may have missed something, but wouldn't colo st at +8.5 be a negative line movement? Since we are losing a 1.5. FYI the reason for the movement in that game is because RAS is on them.

[jerry12345]

skipwalker - firstly i checked the line movement at the beginning of the day i.e the opening line and got 69%.

I then went back and checked how well the closing line would fair and found it was pretty similar. In terms of Dunhen22 plays by taking the closing line, all plays with positive line movement would have come in anyway even with the slightly worse spread except on one occasion where it would have lost and another where it would have pushed - a strike rate maybe of 68%. Of course nothing is full proof and this system and its plays are still tentative. Its also important to note that on occasion you may get burnt taking the slightly worse spread. Although in general it is probably not wise it take a spread even with positive line movement if its moved more then 2pts as you are the bet then loses its value.

[jerry12345]

skipwalker - firstly i checked the line movement at the beginning of the day i.e the opening line and got 69%.

I then went back and checked how well the closing line would fair and found it was pretty similar. In terms of Dunhen22 plays by taking the closing line, all plays with positive line movement would have come in anyway even with the slightly worse spread except on one occasion where it would have lost and another where it would have pushed - a strike rate maybe of 68%. Of course nothing is full proof and this system and its plays are still tentative. Its also important to note that on occasion you may get burnt taking the slightly worse spread. Although in general it is probably not wise it take a spread even with positive line movement if its moved more then 2pts as you are the bet then loses its value.

[jerry12345]

I may have missed something, but wouldn't colo st at +8.5 be a negative line movement? Since we are losing a 1.5. FYI the reason for the movement in that game is because RAS is on them.

yes we are losing 1.5 pts but it shows the bookies are thinking along the same line as us - this is a good thing as they know more then any of us ever could about this game (i.e sharp money, public money, injuries), thus by changing the line in this way they are sort of showing their hand and suggesting they think colorado will cover. The initial spread was +10 as the line is moving down this indicates the bookies are adjusting their lines as more action is going on colorado state, to even this out the bookies make the spread less appealing to those backing colorado as they want to try and get punters betting on the other side i.e new mexico. Therefore its a positive line move as the bookies are seeing the games similar to how we are. The problem however is that as the line moves down, in this case to 8.5 we lose some of the juice. But what i found from this kind of line movement in Duns previous plays in this system was that even with the spreads getting worse the teams Dun was backing were still covering even with a slightly worse spread.

[primetime27]

I understand line movement, i just reversed the terminology to make it sound more positive in my head

[DuncHen22]

Can you please tell me where you take your opening line from , I would like to follow along .. Please answer .. Anyone ?????

I use 5Dimes or Pinnacle.

[Heandog]

this is the (kineproffesor system) i see 2 plays today toledo +12 ,and fordham+8- aussie let me know if you see any more. Thanks

just got the lines with toledo+13-and fordham+10 small plays for me

[DuncHen22]

Hey great research, Jerry! I think I'll use it to at least wait until morning to make my picks and try to catch things before they move more than a point.

I'm still going to count every play in my system since I'm still just tracking, but if you're up for it, maybe you can keep track of the line movement records? If you don't want to that's fine.

[GGZOLA]

GOOD luck to everyone today

[jerry12345]

Hey great research, Jerry! I think I'll use it to at least wait until morning to make my picks and try to catch things before they move more than a point.

I'm still going to count every play in my system since I'm still just tracking, but if you're up for it, maybe you can keep track of the line movement records? If you don't want to that's fine.

Yeh defo keep tracking your system the results so far are really solid, i just thought it would be interesting to note line movements to see if they have any influence. Always to good to use every tool available really. yeh il keep track of the line movements and try and update in here regularly

[Axis]

This line movement refinement spreading like wildfire now, Here are the plays based on line movement on top of DuncHen's plays, but unfortunately you have to play the adjusted lines, so primetime and skip you do raise a valid point.

I might try this for tonight: go 1 unit for lines that have not changed (pitt +2.5, ball st -6, neb +11, clem -7.5)
In our favor 2 units (seton hall -3, Col.State +8.5.)
should be fun
skipping the negative line movements GL to all no matter what they do
this thread is great, healthy, positive, and chock full of relevant info and data.

One of the few threads on this forum where people are actually trying to help out others without people talking shit and saying people are dumb for making picks.

Good work to all!

[dingbat]

damn vandy, they couldn't box out and get a rebound to save the line. georgia with a putback with 2 secs left, vandy only wins by 7 , but other than that so far so good!

[LtDementia]

One of the few threads on this forum where people are actually trying to help out others without people talking shit and saying people are dumb for making picks.

Good work to all!

I'm impressed!!

[Axis]

Pretty happy...so far my filters knocked out 3 losses, and 1 win. Also didn't play Duke so...pretty happy the filters are still working...

[GGZOLA]

won every game with line movement filter. Only colorado state hanging in the balance, unfortunately its a 2-uniter for me, but nice feeling knowing you have a guaranteed profit for one damn night.