Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

**GGZOLA** · 01-13-11, 05:37 PM

my final plays for today, light line movement today books not tipping their hands so to speak, with the exception of a few games.

ELON +6.5 1.5U
SCLARA -7 1.5U
UCLA -3.5 1U
WKTY -4.5 1U
DREXEL +2 1U
TENN-CHATT +1.5 1U
these plays are simply a mini-version of the thread but I throwout lines moved against these, and added 1/2 unit to plays in which lines moved towards my plays, even though lost 1/2 point on a few. 1 unit plays are no action on line movements either way. Tenn-chatt is questionable some places +2 (moving against) but decided to let it ride, they can beat citadel IMO. (Gotta throw some human aspect as a tiebreaker occasionally.)

**Heandog** · 01-13-11, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Aussiecapper101

Guys, these are the plays for the kineproffesor system - Remember we are tracking until February unless your crazy enough to play them small like me!!

UL Monroe +8.5
UC Riverside (should be able to get +6 by gametime)
UNC Greensboro +15
Elon College +7.5
Tenn Martin +10.5 (might be able to get higher line later)
Sacramento State +15 (line trending down)
Portland +5.5 (if line moves out half point then this is also a play)

lets see how it goes today - someone can check these if they like there is a few games close today

Thanks Aussie just got in from work you saved me a lot of time they look good to me all except Unc Riverside is only @5- so far well have to wait and see

**Heandog** · 01-13-11, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

1/13 PICKS

Sorry I didn't get these in last night but the updated data wasn't out before I went to bed. Here's my list:

1/13

BUFFALO +1 (2)
ELON +7.5 (3.5)
UCLA -3.5 (2.5)
CHATTANOOGA +1 (2)
CSU-NORTHRIDGE -3.5(2.5)
WKU -4.5 (2.5)
PURDUE -3.5 (4.5)
SANTA CLARA -6.5 (2.5)
UW -8 (3)

Thanks Dunchenn Awesome job System working great and nice to see all this imput, keep it up

**TEXAS MICKEY** · 01-13-11, 07:09 PM

Thanks D22,

System is working great.

**scratbandit** · 01-13-11, 07:28 PM

I second the thank you for all the hard work and the posters adding to it.

**Jesse6878** · 01-13-11, 08:36 PM

Dunchen22 I would give you my sbr points if my account would allow me to accumulate them.
Does anyone know how to cancel old accounts... i think maybe that is why i can't accumulate points

**LockPickMaster** · 01-13-11, 08:50 PM

elon +6.5 is dead, freaking wcu hits 2 free throws with seconds to go

**dingbat** · 01-13-11, 08:52 PM

ugh that feels like vandy's last night...

Originally posted by LockPickMaster

elon +6.5 is dead, freaking wcu hits 2 free throws with seconds to go

**LockPickMaster** · 01-13-11, 08:55 PM

WKU and UCLA look very good

**masontnk** · 01-13-11, 08:56 PM

Ah that Elon was so close. Half a point. thats how it is though

**xtrzor** · 01-13-11, 09:03 PM

spread for elon vas +7.5 so what are you talkin about ? ...

**LockPickMaster** · 01-13-11, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by xtrzor

spread for elon vas +7.5 so what are you talkin about ? ...

by the time they posted the plays in this thread only 6.5 was available.

**peteymal** · 01-13-11, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by LockPickMaster

by the time they posted the plays in this thread only 6.5 was available.

I bought a half and got it at 7 luckily.

**xtrzor** · 01-13-11, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by LockPickMaster

by the time they posted the plays in this thread only 6.5 was available.

that sucks! sorry for your loss.

**Heandog** · 01-13-11, 09:26 PM

the elon game went off at 7 @all the books but the greek , It sort of sucks if you played it real early you get 7- you win ,around 530pm its 6- you lose 6:50pm 7 you push

**Aussiecapper101** · 01-13-11, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Heandog

Thanks Aussie just got in from work you saved me a lot of time they look good to me all except Unc Riverside is only @5- so far well have to wait and see

Hope u cashed elon, I got them at +8 last night - bought half point, some of these others still look shaky

**LockPickMaster** · 01-13-11, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by Aussiecapper101

Hope u cashed elon, I got them at +8 last night - bought half point, some of these others still look shaky

WKU crashed and burned, that was bad.

**GGZOLA** · 01-13-11, 09:47 PM

seriously, did they fall off the fcuking map?

**LockPickMaster** · 01-13-11, 09:51 PM

anyone know why WKU got crushed so bad.

**Heandog** · 01-13-11, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Aussiecapper101

Hope u cashed elon, I got them at +8 last night - bought half point, some of these others still look shaky

nope got the push but better than a loss. Hey thanks agian for looking up the plays I had a really busy day and I hate rushing when I do this because I dont want to screw up

**Axis** · 01-13-11, 11:30 PM

Not the greatest of nights so far but...glad the filters still cut some losses...cut out Purdue, WKU, and CS Northridge (which was a play if you used the opening line).

Hopefully Santa Clara and Washington can finish strong.

**DuncHen22** · 01-14-11, 12:02 AM

DAILY WRAP UP

Originally posted by DuncHen22

1/13 PICKS

Sorry I didn't get these in last night but the updated data wasn't out before I went to bed. Here's my list:

1/13

BUFFALO +1 (2) LOSS
ELON +7.5 (3.5) WIN
UCLA -3.5 (2.5) WIN
CHATTANOOGA +1 (2) WIN
CSU-NORTHRIDGE -3.5(2.5) LOSS
WKU -4.5 (2.5) LOSS
PURDUE -3.5 (4.5) LOSS
SANTA CLARA -6.5 (2.5) WIN
UW -8 (3) LOSS

4-5 -1.5 Units today. I guess you can't have a positive day all the time.

2H plays went 2-2 -0.2 units today.

(since Dec 11, 2010)
101-64 (61%) +30.6 units

(since Jan 8, 2011)
2H Plays: 16-10 (62%) +5 units
+Full Time Plays: 46-33 (58%) +9.7 units

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 01-14-11, 12:14 AM

Dunchen22..still one of the best on here

**lenahanj** · 01-14-11, 12:16 AM

get back at em tomorrow and have a good day

**GGZOLA** · 01-14-11, 12:19 AM

not rubbing in by any means....but 4-2 with +2.25 units on my "filters", as listed above.
Very choppy day as I felt it would be, few points for our sides or against us couldve paid off big or buried us today. It was nail-biter city virtually for every freaking game.
Kinda glad tomorrow's card is light, really gonna focus for saturday, its showdown time...

**dingbat** · 01-14-11, 12:27 AM

i think a good strategy might be to just take the early lines and see how they move and after the usual filters post, if its not working in our favor, we can always cancel it out with minimal losses. I didn't get in on early lines for tonights games, which costed me the Elon play since it went to +6.5. just my thoughts...

**DuncHen22** · 01-14-11, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by GGZOLA

not rubbing in by any means....but 4-2 with +2.25 units on my "filters", as listed above.
Very choppy day as I felt it would be, few points for our sides or against us couldve paid off big or buried us today. It was nail-biter city virtually for every freaking game.
Kinda glad tomorrow's card is light, really gonna focus for saturday, its showdown time...

No worries about "rubbing it in," haha. It's good to see some potentially good filters out there. You can think of me as providing a solid foundation (which hopefully can pay off by itself), and others building on top of it to make an even greater pay-out.

**Axis** · 01-14-11, 12:33 AM

Now as a refresher...what exactly are you watching on the 2H plays...

If the initial play team is losing at half...do you take them at half?

Or is it a favorite team (that is a play) losing at half...take them?

**jerry12345** · 01-14-11, 12:40 AM

UPDATED: line movements

Positive line movements – 40 – 19 = 68% (Rounded up)

Opening line same as closing – 16 – 9 = 64%

Negative line movements – 27 – 28 = 49%

Bit unlucky on the Elon +6.5 play but its excluded from these record because the line closed at 7 - which would have been a push.

**masontnk** · 01-14-11, 12:46 AM

GL tomorrow man

**DuncHen22** · 01-14-11, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by Axis

Now as a refresher...what exactly are you watching on the 2H plays...

If the initial play team is losing at half...do you take them at half?

Or is it a favorite team (that is a play) losing at half...take them?

I'm looking at play teams that fail to cover the 1st half spread. The idea behind it is that we first must assume the game line is good. But if they don't get the 1H line, I believe they'll at least regress back to the original line. They may not cover the full game but close enough so you can nearly break even if they cover 2H but not the game.

For example, Say a team has a game line of -10 and 1H line at -5. At the half they are losing by 2 (7 off the line). They'll generally have a 2H line of something like -6. A majority of the time (I believe) they will cover that as the team regresses back to where they should be -10.

I'm just tracking it for now because it can be a bit risky (you're essential betting 2 units on those games, so risk goes up).

**DuncHen22** · 01-14-11, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I'm looking at play teams that fail to cover the 1st half spread. The idea behind it is that we first must assume the game line is good. But if they don't get the 1H line, I believe they'll at least regress back to the original line. They may not cover the full game but close enough so you can nearly break even if they cover 2H but not the game.

For example, Say a team has a game line of -10 and 1H line at -5. At the half they are losing by 2 (7 off the line). They'll generally have a 2H line of something like -6. A majority of the time (I believe) they will cover that as the team regresses back to where they should be -10.

I'm just tracking it for now because it can be a bit risky (you're essential betting 2 units on those games, so risk goes up).

So here was the breakdown for today:

ELON 1H +4 LOSS (down by 7)
ELON 2H +2.5 WIN (tied)

PURDUE 1H -1.5 LOSS (down 1)
PURDUE 2H -2 LOSS (down 2)

S. CLARA 1H -3.5 LOSS (tied)
S. CLARA 2H -4.5 WIN (up 9)

UW 1H -4 LOSS (down 1)
UW 2H -6 LOSS (down 1)

So if you just played the game lines only, you'd have been 2-2 -0.2
If you played full games plus 2H lines, you'd have been 4-4, -0.4

This was the first negative day I've had in 2H plays.

**masontnk** · 01-14-11, 01:50 AM

Hey dh22 are you posting tomorrows plays tonight

**fphatpat** · 01-14-11, 01:53 AM

I may be new to this but taking a quick look it seems that there are no plays for tomorrow.

**DuncHen22** · 01-14-11, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by masontnk

Hey dh22 are you posting tomorrows plays tonight

Originally posted by fphatpat

I may be new to this but taking a quick look it seems that there are no plays for tomorrow.

Yep. Unless some games are added to the books, or some of KP's lines change with updated data, we're taking tomorrow off. Just get ready for Saturday because I'm sure it will be packed!