I put some real money on Bama -2 and Over 143, I bought the hook on both......... Straight and parlayed (small)
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GT: Georgia Tech in 2004 was 25th in Off Eff AND 3rd in Defensive Eff...and they lost to UConn, who was the 4th ranked Off and 5th ranked Def.Comment -
Wrote a screen scrape tonight that is gonna save me some time in the future. Pretty happy about that. Also the MLB model is basically done, and it's a hell of a beauty.
Can't wait to give this thing a whirl...!
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Can't believe NCAAB is only 3 more games away from being done for 8+ months...... 8 long empty months....
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Can't wait to see the MLB model. What's a screen scrape CQ?
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A screen scrape is... I push a button in excel, and then years of data magically populate the cells in excel.... and point spreads and different stats and what not. Very helpful tool.
Baseball model is done and the most impressive thing I've ever made!Comment -
DaBA's came thru again tonite.
You're invited CQ!
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I've gotta tell you GT... I've seen his thread last year (I believe)...and without doing any research... I don't understand how this can be profitable long term. If I recall, you basically just bet every game that there will be a score in the first inning... ? This seems WAY too easy... and I promise... gambling isn't that easy.
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Notes on Butler/VCU. Took these notes down at work today.
Butler: Combined rank of each team they had to beat on route to Final Four: 77
VCU Combined rank of each team they had to beat on route to Final Four: 137
EDGE: Butler by 60 (this is calculated assuming you played Ohio St. (#1) and Kansas (#3) = combined rank of 4; so lower numbers mean you played tougher opponents...and I'm not talking about their SEEDING number)
Total # of SEED they had to play (again, lower = tougher)
Butler: 9, 1, 4, 2 = 16
VCU: 6, 3, 10, 1 = 20 (NOT counting the play-in game)
EDGE: Butler by 4
Last Year Post Season:
Butler: NCAA Championship: Runner-up
VCU: Won CBI tourney
EDGE: TIE (VCU can play in the post season and win and Butler is hungry to finish what they didn't last year)
Four Factors:
eFG%: VCU +0.3
Turnover%: TIE
Off Rebound%: Butler +1.3
FTA/FGA: Buter +0.9
EDGE: Butler
Team Off Eff:
Butler: 112.7
VCU: 113.3
EDGE: VCU by 0.6
Team Def Eff:
Butler: 95.6
VCU: 97.7
EDGE: Butler by 2.1
OEff 5 players with the most minutes played:
Butler:
106.4
121.2
88.1
125.5
111.6
VCU:
104.0
118.1
116.0
118.7
100.6
EDGE: Butler (Butler has one terrible guy (Nored) on their team that really drag their Oeff down... If you take out the worst starter from each team in ORating...then you see that Butler Edges VCU by 7.9... now can you really just chop off a starter and call it fair? Yes. Nored scores only ~5 points per game... so to say that he accounts for the same % of offense is wrong... he only gets ~6.8% of Butler's total offense. Also, Butler has the two best efficient players on the floor, one being Matt Howard, and the best being Alex Smith.)
Lastly:
VCU played Old Dominion thrice in the regular season/post season, and went 1-2. VCU lost to Old Dominion as recently as March 7th. Ten days later, Butler beat Old Dominion.
Edge: NEITHER! Don't let this fool you... sure it's good, but it's not that important.
And now lastly for real:
Before the NCAA 2011 Men's Div I tournament began, Butler would have been a 4.181608561 point favorite over VCU. NOW...now that both teams are outperforming themselves... they bolstered their stats enough that VCU is only a 2.5 point dog... That's a bunch of free points.... They are getting credit for beating Kansas... which was their Super Bowl. This is another edge to Butler here... They are hungry as all hell... they are almost back to where they were last year and they want it....they want the whole thing. VCU didn't even watch the Selection Sunday show cuz they weren't supposed to be here. They beat the #1 seed in their bracket, and the best team left in the tourney. So CAN they beat Butler? Hell yeah. But WILL they beat Butler?
Yes. But only 32% of the time.
Games simulated: 50000
Wins for the Butler: 33988 (68.0%)
Wins for the VCU: 16012 (32.0%)
Covers for the Butler: 28741 (57.5%)
Covers for the VCU: 19121 (38.2%)
A spread bet resulted in a push 2138 times, or 4.28%
Covers for the OVER: 33495 (67.0%)
Covers for the UNDER: 15421 (30.8%)
Total bets resulted in a push 1084 times, or 2.17%
(Take that over/under with a grain of salt...I did no research on it.)
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Also note that there's 2138 pushes on a spread of 2.5. Confused? Don't worry about it... I calculate points to very slim decimals...and thus there can be pushes within .5 points on either side of the spread.Comment -
Oh... and before I forget cuz I'm off to watch the Runnin' Rebels of UNLV documentary...
1 Unit
Butler -2.5
Good luck!
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Good morning CQ!
WOW... thanks for all that hard work!
I was already prepared to make a gut/cinderella play on VCU. I believe you have
swayed me to Butler my friend.
Damn... I want little ole' VCU to win sooooooo bad. But after all, we're talking about winning money... not about pulling for teams and winning games.
Probably going the Butler way w/you.
...odds sayComment -
Thanks GT. The line moved to -3 with only 49% of the public on Butler. Also, UConn is getting some love... now down to +2 with only 41% public... hmm. I'm not so sure about that game yet. Didn't dissect it like I did the Butler / VCU game. Guess it's time to do more work. First thoughts were that the line is correct though...my computer spits out Kentucky -2.5exactly.Comment -
Oh man... you gonna' make me take Butler AND KTY.?
But I like VCU and Uconn
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hah... I think the line is correct still... I'm not touching the KTY UConn game. That's all gonna come down to if Kemba can catch fire. If they guard him and Lamb, it's over. KTY has the size to keep Kemba at bay... but all Kemba's gotta do is a little step back fade away jumper and game over.
That'll be a great one to watch I think...can't wait!
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You know CQ, I have a great appreciation for how you go after the stat stuff yet maintain vision w/ the intangibles.
So far I punched the U134 in the VCU/Butler matchup (a grain of salt play)
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I agree with your call on the UConn / Kentucky game - no way you can bet on that. It is Kemba time or bust. Can't wait to watch!
If any play totals is it (not for me). Watch out with VCU Under - they can rain 3's if they can get some space; their coach is excellent so I'm sure he will find a way, at least for a period. GL.Comment -
Crimson, wow, that is some amazing mathmatical stats on your overview of VCU Butler, but as in your previous post, did we factor in "HEART"? I think it still may be a factor in this game much as it was in the Kansas contest. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. However if they come out early and start missing the 3's early, then game over. But they should come out relaxed and confident, so what happens then? As always, thanks for all the hard work, and any input greatly appreciated
I like the over though.
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GT & WarEagle: I try and ALWAYS factor in math, intangibles, and line movements into my capping. Some people learn how to cap with math. Some with line movements... some with intangible things (like new coaches, or 'heart' factored angles etc.) but I say why the hell not get really good at EVERY possible angle and make sure all factors point to a play before making one.
I did make mention, WarEagle, of the heart aspect in that I believe VCU played their SuperBowl already. I think they used all of their heart up in that game. Sure they could come out and hit their first 8 3's and then GAME OVER. But... According to all the math (which I deem the MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT IN EVERY SINGLE GAME I LOOK AT) and all the other factors, I believe the correct side is Butler -2.5, and the fact that it moved to -3.5 / -4...proves I was on the right side. No matter what happens in the game, all you can control is THE LINE THAT YOU BET! So as far as I'm concerned, I already won. Might I lose money? Yep. But I got the absolute BEST line I can on this game. if the TRUE line is Butler -4, then we just got 1.5 points for free...and in the long run if you had 30 cents of juice off on every game, you'll be a millionaire. Betting Butler -4 is no longer a good bet, btw. I think the true line should be around Butler -4... -4.5. So be careful what line you get... it's half the battle!
nickos: I totally agree that it's Kemba or bust time! Can't wait to watch that one...as long as I'm not betting it, I've gotta cheer on Kemba who is representing my Big East!Comment -
Thanks my friend, I could not agree more!GT & WarEagle: I try and ALWAYS factor in math, intangibles, and line movements into my capping. Some people learn how to cap with math. Some with line movements... some with intangible things (like new coaches, or 'heart' factored angles etc.) but I say why the hell not get really good at EVERY possible angle and make sure all factors point to a play before making one.
I did make mention, WarEagle, of the heart aspect in that I believe VCU played their SuperBowl already. I think they used all of their heart up in that game. Sure they could come out and hit their first 8 3's and then GAME OVER. But... According to all the math (which I deem the MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT IN EVERY SINGLE GAME I LOOK AT) and all the other factors, I believe the correct side is Butler -2.5, and the fact that it moved to -3.5 / -4...proves I was on the right side. No matter what happens in the game, all you can control is THE LINE THAT YOU BET! So as far as I'm concerned, I already won. Might I lose money? Yep. But I got the absolute BEST line I can on this game. if the TRUE line is Butler -4, then we just got 1.5 points for free...and in the long run if you had 30 cents of juice off on every game, you'll be a millionaire. Betting Butler -4 is no longer a good bet, btw. I think the true line should be around Butler -4... -4.5. So be careful what line you get... it's half the battle!
nickos: I totally agree that it's Kemba or bust time! Can't wait to watch that one...as long as I'm not betting it, I've gotta cheer on Kemba who is representing my Big East!Comment -
Just want to say this b4 we get too deep into the game.
The only play I put in on the VCU/Butler game was a small wager on the under 134.
I'm pulling for VCU and did not want to go against them... or you (scared to do that).
Now I can just watch. Nothing on the KTY/UCONN yet either and probably won't.Comment -
Very nice capping CQ!
Glad you won, but as you say win or loose... you had the right play.
I'm trusting you more and more...
You got the spread... I got the under... we're both WINNERS!!!!!!
VCU had a very nice run.
Wouldn't it be something if Butler went all the way, but that's probably not in the cards.
Can't wait to watch the KTY/UCONN game.
It's a pleasure being here with you.......Comment -
Ditto!
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Thanks too, WarEagle
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Very nice win!
Thanks GT. It's been a good season! Time to go watch KTY/UConn!
1 Unit
Butler -2.5 - WIN!Comment -
I'm still waiting to hear more on the MLB model.
Just because CBB is about done, doesn't mean you're off the hook!
or, do you have a thread for that in the MLB handicapping forum?Comment -
This year in the Big East:
52-40-1 (56.52% ATS/Totals)
***Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)***
Conference Season:
35-20 (63.64% ATS)
Big East Tournament / NCAA Tournament:
8-9 (47.06%)
Total for the year:
+17.09 Units
Who knows if there'll be a play on the Championship game? Last year I had Butler +6 for a 3 unit play in the Championship game. This year Butler is at +3.5. Having done 0 research so far...I will say this: Butler is hellbent on winning a Championship. It's going to be a game with 0 quit on Butler's side, but I could see UConn throwing in the towel if they got down a lot. But I doubt they will get down a lot as the better team. (much better team?)
Because it's the Championship game, I did a special run on my computer's brains and ran this game 1,000,000 times
I'm not going to post the results yet as I didn't research the game fully yet... and I can't show my cards before I make a bet myself, now can I?
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As for the MLB model: It's in BETA testing. So far it's been on a lot of the same games as a couple baseball sharps I know, so I'm quite pleased with that. That being said, it's VERY early, in fact, too early to even post the results of how it's been doing. Perhaps after today I'll post the results, given that it will have had 4 days of games played...or maybe I'll make you wait a week!
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Time for my write up on the 2011 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!!
The Bulldog, colloquially known as the British Bulldog or English Bulldog, is a medium-size breed of dog that originated in England.
The Siberian Husky (Russian: Сибирский хаски, Sibirskiy Haski) is a medium-size, dense-coat working dog breed that originated in eastern Siberia. The breed belongs to the Spitz genetic family. It is recognizable by its thickly-furred double coat, sickle tail, erect triangular ears and distinctive markings.
Good Luck everyone!Comment -
If this game took place right before the NCAA tourney began, then THESE are the results that you would have gotten (down further below my ramblings). Why do I not track the tournament data in these tests? Because I track them in other tests, that's why! I like to see how teams who have played for a full season play and accumulate results, I like to see how strong they are entering the tournament. and I like to leave out the part where they played 5 games more under the gun. I like to believe that no team entering the tournament as a crappy team is going to leave the tournament a great team. So... with out further ado... here's the 1,000,000 championship game simulation: -wait- Before I paste them... I will also say that I DO account for the tournament games AFTER these results, so don't think I'm going to neglect the tournament games completely!
Games simulated: 1,000,000
Wins for the Huskies: 732,210 (73.2%)
Wins for the Bulldogs: 267,790 (26.8%)
Covers for the Huskies: 578,520 (57.9%)
Covers for the Bulldogs: 381,438 (38.1%)
A spread bet resulted in a push 40,042 times, or 4.00%
Covers for the OVER: 784,355 (78.4%)
Covers for the UNDER: 201,322 (20.1%)
Total bets resulted in a push 14,323 times, or 1.43%
OK. Now the part about the tournament games and the intangibles:
First. You’re Brad Stevens. You want to win this game even more than you wanted to win last year... and this year you're only a 3 point dog instead of a 6 point dog. Bark bark!
Next. If you count all the tournament games data, Butler moves up from a 5 point dog to about a 4 point dog.
Next. Butler has been great at not allowing offensive rebounds all season... Down to 3.5 point dogs…beause:
Next. Four Factors: Butler. Check Check(?) Check Check. The only one UConn wins in is Orebs, and guess who's gonna shut down the O-boards tonight? Butler.
Next. There's a number of other factors which swing wildly back and forth between the two teams advantages:
Butler has the two most efficient players on the floor again;
UConn has a superstar in Kemba Walker;
Butler beat Pittsburgh with a WILD ridiculous lucky finish;
UConn just beat Pittsburgh with Kemba's skill;
Butler is WAY more experienced as a team: 2.02 years player experience vs. UConn's 0.95 years;
UConn has way more effective height (per minutes played): +3.4 vs. Butler's +0.4. Could help stop Butler from stopping UConn getting O-rebs.
BOTTOM LINE HERE, KIDS:
STAY AWAY!
Enjoy the final game of the season, and don't go out betting on a total coin flip. If you want my honest opinion, gun to the head call: UConn -3(-101) has an edge with the numbers, no doubt. BUT in almost every other regard (intangible factors; line movement; motivation; etc) Butler has an upset written all over it. UConn: numbers. Butler: intangibles. = NO ACTION
FYI, I ran these numbers when the TOTAL was sitting at 128 yesterday.... so if the over seems like a great bet, it's now at 131.5. Be careful, you lost a TON of value.Comment -
Yep.... Uconn.
I stayed away CQ.
As far as viewing pleasure... rather watch paint dry.....
More disappointiong than the worst Super Bowl...Comment
