CrimsonQueen's CBB 2010-2011

[CrimsonQueen]

No problem GT, here's my thoughts:

I'm on BYU +3 & Wisconsin -4.5 too. SDSU been on all week... and BAM, just looked: SDSU = -1.5 favorites now!!! I got it at +1. Very nice. BYU moving away from the 3... almost down to +2. Wisconsin is at -4.5 and looking to hold there.

Duke = no opinion. I think there's a lot of talk about Arizona being good enough to beat Duke, but Duke is a 9 point favorite. That means the ML for Duke is gonna be astronomical. I wouldn't parlay it just because it won't help your odds that much and who knows what a 9 point dog in the sweet 16 is gonna do?

1 Unit
Wisconsin -4.5 (-105)
BYU +3
San Diego State +1

Good Luck!

[GTforme]

Really appreciate the input CQ, and we're thinking alike again.

I was worried about line movement, particulary w/SDSU, so I wanted to get something in. I figured I could always go back to the well later today if need be.

I played the EXACT card you show for straight wagers.
Changed the Wisky to ML and dropped Duke out of my parlay.

EERIE ISN"T IT?

GL my friend... let's get it! I'll be glued to the TV tonight!

[GTforme]

SHARP SWEET 16 ACTION

Quote, "Rood said the pros pounded BYU +3 and Wisconsin -4 when the lines opened late Sunday. He received enough sharp action to bump Florida down to a 2.5-point favorite and Wisconsin up to a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday."

[CrimsonQueen]

Very nice GT. SDSU will move to -2 and BYU to +2. Lots of free points for us tonight

[CrimsonQueen]

Went 1-6 today in all plays. First real losing day in... a long time. Forgot how much it sucks. Oh well... Can't win em all... even if they cover in regulation...stupid Florida can't make a final shot to end it there. Oh well. Oh well... oh well... time to sleep and forget about and come back tomorrow and go on another great winning streak.

[GTforme]

Good atitude CQ. Shoulda' faded myself...

Good morning, I'm working all day today but will check in w/you tonight!

[GTforme]

Hey CQ!

Got your wounds licked yet? Last night was surreal, wasn't it?

I'm on (so far)

Richmond spiders (+10 1/2)

O St. Buckeyes (-6)

[CrimsonQueen]

I have to agree... I liked OSU at -5 when it opened and took it for .5 units. So far I haven't called it an official play yet though. Richmond... no opinion on it yet. I've been super busy working on my baseball model...honestly haven't really looked further into tonight's games yet! Didn't realize the time...

[CrimsonQueen]

It's official now.

1 Unit
Ohio State -6(-103)

Good Luck!

[GTforme]

Glad you're on it.

Richmond... could not buy a 3!

[CrimsonQueen]

Both the early games were AWFUL... couldn't even stay awake for them...

[CrimsonQueen]

Snake-bitten. There's always tomorrow...

[WarEagle43]

tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow, creeps into this petty pace from day to day.....i agree that the early games were just plain bad. Lose one win one, we live to fight another day. been tailing for a few weeks and appreciate all your work. thanks for all you do and I can't help but think Fl has something for butler today, rebounding, defense, the ability to run, leaning their way. any input?

[BigMama]

great day for all

[GTforme]

Both the early games were AWFUL... couldn't even stay awake for them...

Too much time in the lab noodling on the baseball?

Yeap, on to today... yesterday is gone and forgotten.

I'm just starting to look around @... not much.

I'd say Gators and Huskies minus the points... but so would most everyone else and look where that's getting me.

Good morning CQ!

[GTforme]

I'm not complaining. I'm just not a good Tounament player. I've been going real light on all the CBB Touneys, even playing my SBR points... just trying to hone my skills. Making up Touney losses (somewhat) w/NBA, soccer, etc. and not allowing myself to get killed w/CBBT's. Just proud of that.

If interested, this looks good @ 4:00pm. Guy's been solid. Soccer guy who does not post many and he's usually on target.

I may play it. The NCAAT is distressing me. I need to see more winners.......

LOCK Philadelphia Union ML -110The Philadelphia Union started their sophomore season in MLS with a bang, with a rare 1-0 road win in Houston. We didn't get to see much of the Philly attack as they took an early lead and sat on it, fending off the Houston attack and killing the game off nicely for a big three points in the season opener. Vancouver are coming into Philadelphia on a high, after kickstarting their inaugural MLS season with a convincing 4-2 win over Toronto FC. Though I think they will improve with time, what i've seen of TFC thus far is pretty bad. Not taking anything away from Vancouver, all i'm saying is I don't think it's time to sit up and take notice of this expansion side just yet. Even though the Whitecaps bagged goals in bunches, their defense showed some leaks and I expect the Union to exploit those this afternoon. Even as bad as TFC is they were able to control much of the possession and get some good looks on goal, scoring twice. Philadelphia attack has yet to show their flare but they do possess one of the league's most lethal players in Sebastian Le Toux, along with goal-hungry strikers Carlos Ruiz and Danny Mwanga. Union should look to their attack today, considering Vancouver is without their starting Center Backs in Jay DeMerit and Michael Boxall both missing due to International duty. Along with a makeshift back line, Vancouver will have to alter their attack with playmaker Davide Chiumiento and winger Shea Salinas both out with injuries. Philadelphia defense looks strong, with veteran goalkeeper Faryd Mondragon in net and Danny Califf holding it down in the back they are more organized than the sloppy defense we saw last year. I am banking on Coach Peter Nowak to capitalize on a weakened Vancouver side and attack them from the get-go. Philadelphia's PPL Park will be rocking today, and the Union will send them home happy with a convincing win.

Now, if I can just figure out the CBB plays?

[firehoyt]

GT i gotta Q...i was looking at that soccer game you posted.....it's listed as a pk on the spread....and Philly Union is -260...but the ML is -111........why is there such a difference in the spread and ML juice?!?!? If it's a pk, normally there isn't a ML...at least in all other sports...never bet soccer though...so I dont know much about it.....So...why is there a difference in the juice on spread and ML

[CrimsonQueen]

War Eagle: I totally agree that Butler is going down. I don't know how they keep surviving: mathematically, they should've lost by now... Not sure about the points though, I'll let you know if I play it.

Firehoyt: Soccer has three-way lines... careful what you bet. If you take the -110, if it's a TIE, you lose. -260 = push for a tie.

GT: I have a number of friends at that Union game...! Good luck!

[CrimsonQueen]

This is how I'm gonna play it tonight. I like both Florida -4 and Arizona +3... but I REALLY like Florida to win this game 72% of the time and Arizona to cover the +7 72% of the time. Means we'll win 51.84% and we're getting +107 odds on 5 Dimes for this teaser...so we don't even need to win 50% of the time for this to be a good bet... but I think we win > 50% of the time...so it's a great bet.

1 Unit Teaser
Florida PICK / Arizona +7

Other option is to take the two bets separately for .5 units each... I like Florida to win by 5.3 points...and Arizona to lose by about 2...

Good luck!

[GTforme]

GT i gotta Q...i was looking at that soccer game you posted.....it's listed as a pk on the spread....and Philly Union is -260...but the ML is -111........why is there such a difference in the spread and ML juice?!?!? If it's a pk, normally there isn't a ML...at least in all other sports...never bet soccer though...so I dont know much about it.....So...why is there a difference in the juice on spread and ML

Sorry I missed your question CQ.

Let me get set up here and I'll answer. I've been unclogging the bathtub drain all afternoon of all things. Sorry it won't be timely... I'll get back ASAP.

GL today my friend.

[GTforme]

I see the Firehoyt comment above... that's correct.

Note that ALL matches are not allowed to play to ties. It's always stipulated. I think BIG matches such as World Cup must resolve in a win. These playout in Extra Time. In soccer wagering regular time is usually the only portion considered, unless stipulated in the wager. Also there is usually some time added to each match half, called penalty time. This is always a part of the wager.

[GTforme]

Here's a nice early soccer card I wish I'd tailed today:

Scotland OVERS

Airdrie/Forfar 2.5 WINNER
Alloa/Peterhead 2.5 LOSER
Arbroath/Straener 3 WINNER
Brechin/Dumarton 3 WINNER
East Fife/Livingston 3 WINNER
Dundee/Cowdenbeath 3 WINNER


Scottish matches tend to the Over... can you tell!

Sorry I missed that one.......

This stuff has been saving me thru the NCAA Touneys

Lets roll Gators! (I hate 'em, but I need 'em)

I need 'em -4... you need 'em to win CQ.

[GTforme]

I have this little parlay working today to try and build my SBR points account back up:

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[514] FLORIDA -4-110
[516] CONNECTICUT -150
[517] IONA -2-110
[8614] PHILADELPHIA -111 (MLS soccer play currently playing)

Pays a little better than 10:1

... and that's all I'm on @ this moment... but I just fixed my first late Sat. afternoon drink... so LOOK OUT!

Let's go Gators... man-up reptiles!

I'm gonna' settle down and watch this CBB 2nd. half.

See ya' shortly CQ...

[GTforme]

CQ,

You know about http://www.flashscore.com/...?

Philly Union up 1 to nuttin' in 89th minute (of 90 min. regulation + stoppage time)...

LETS GO GATORS!... put an end to these tire-biters!

PTI... just enjoying a nice late Sat. afternoon

[bulichme]

Do you play chess?

[bulichme]

Here's a nice early soccer card I wish I'd tailed today:

Scotland OVERS

Airdrie/Forfar 2.5 WINNER
Alloa/Peterhead 2.5 LOSER
Arbroath/Straener 3 WINNER
Brechin/Dumarton 3 WINNER
East Fife/Livingston 3 WINNER
Dundee/Cowdenbeath 3 WINNER


Scottish matches tend to the Over... can you tell!

Sorry I missed that one.......

This stuff has been saving me thru the NCAA Touneys

Lets roll Gators! (I hate 'em, but I need 'em)

I need 'em -4... you need 'em to win CQ.

I have been following this thread for some time. Now I'd like to know if you post soccer picks often?

[CrimsonQueen]

Do you play chess?

Yes I do play chess. Or rather... I used too. Or rather... I still do, but I used to study for hours a day and play in rated tournaments. Now I just play randomly for fun.

[CrimsonQueen]

Florida up 11... manages to blow that game and lose in OT. I can't believe how bad Florida wanted to lose that game. Tied with no shot clock and 20 seconds to go at the end of regulation, they take a HORRIBLE 30 foot 3 point attempt. Why? You need to win by ONE, not by THREE! Then they manage to make the EXACT same mistake AGAIN at the end of Overtime!!! HORRIBLE look at a 3 when they only needed a 2 as time is about to expire. I think Florida should fire / execute their coach(es). Just pathetic.

[firehoyt]

Butler didn't win that game. Florida lost it. They should take Donovan out back and shoot him. That was some stupid ass coaching on his part. Why risk two off balance threes when you only need a two to win and you've been money in the paint all night with Mclyn. Makes no freaking sense whatsoever. Well I just lost what was left of my BR. FML

[GTforme]

Gators... afraid of loosing and did...

Butler... got to give it to 'em!

My parlay... dead.

CQ's teaser... dead.

I just hammered Uconn!!!!!!!!!!

[CrimsonQueen]

I have been following this thread for some time. Now I'd like to know if you post soccer picks often?

I don't post soccer picks. However, I may or may not post my baseball picks. That may be too much of a hassle though since baseball starts at 1:05 a lot...and I'm at work til 3. I can get the bets in on my Droid X...but posting them is rather difficult to do from a cell phone...while I'm supposed to be working

The baseball model will be done for this season but it will be in beta testing early on. I don't have many home made tools for baseball yet. For basketball I use a couple computer systems, and a program that simulates every game 50,000 times. It spits out this:

Games simulated: 50000
Wins for the Huskies: 30732 (61.5%)
Wins for the Wildcats: 19268 (38.5%)
Covers for the Huskies: 14451 (28.9%)
Covers for the Wildcats: 33189 (66.4%)
A spread bet resulted in a push 2360 times, or 4.72%
Covers for the OVER: 13768 (27.5%)
Covers for the UNDER: 35416 (70.8%)
Total bets resulted in a push 816 times, or 1.63%

FYI!!! I ran this with Arizona getting SEVEN POINTS because that's what our teaser was at. This isn't the end all be all computer... which is why when I said that Zona covers the +7 ~72% of the time, this only says 66.4%. This is just one of many tools I use.

[CrimsonQueen]

Butler didn't win that game. Florida lost it. They should take Donovan out back and shoot him. That was some stupid ass coaching on his part. Why risk two off balance threes when you only need a two to win and you've been money in the paint all night with Mclyn. Makes no freaking sense whatsoever. Well I just lost what was left of my BR. FML

I totally agree.

Gotta have good money management firehoyt! I'm still up on the NCAA tournament (though only a little bit). Every game is of the same importance. You'll get it back and regroup. Take it slow and easy.

[CrimsonQueen]

Gators... afraid of loosing and did...

Butler... got to give it to 'em!

My parlay... dead.

CQ's teaser... dead.

I just hammered Uconn!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry GT, here's my read out for Uconn -3.5 (since you hammered it!)

Games simulated: 50000
Wins for the Huskies: 30659 (61.3%)
Wins for the Wildcats: 19341 (38.7%)
Covers for the Huskies: 21891 (43.8%)
Covers for the Wildcats: 25803 (51.6%)
A spread bet resulted in a push 2306 times, or 4.61%
Covers for the OVER: 13594 (27.2%)
Covers for the UNDER: 35585 (71.2%)
Total bets resulted in a push 821 times, or 1.64%

[CrimsonQueen]

I'm gonna go ahead and say my calculator is right that this game is 71.2% to go to the UNDER. 57 points in the first half... need 90(!) in the second half to reach the line of 147! Shoulda listened.

[CrimsonQueen]

Computer check:
Has Arizona lose by exactly 2: Check (posted that earlier today before the games even started)
Has the UNDER at 71.2% to cover: Check (covered by 19 points!)

Lookin good, computer! We're on the right side of these games, trust me. You just can't win every game/day/month/year. You will have losing days, losing weeks and even losing years. ALWAYS USE GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT! Even if you had a GUARANTEED 55% chance to win every single game, there's only a 16.6% chance you'd even win 3 in a row. So be careful.