Thanx for WVA CQ!
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Brad Wannamaker just went from my favorite player to ... I hope he falls off a cliff and dies. Open look at a 3 down 3 with 5 seconds left? Why take the shot when you can throw the ball away!
1 Unit
Pittsburgh +1 - WIN in regulation (Loss in actuality)
West Virginia -3 - WIN
This year in Big East play:
52-40-1 (56.52% ATS/Totals)
Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS/Totals)
Dog ML's 1-2 (33%)
+10.29 Units TotalComment -
... but I had to go w/L'viile for the second game.
Man that was soooooooo... close!
Glad I got the win. But sorry for your Pitt loss.........Comment -
Hey CQ!
Will you be dancing w/the Dames tonight?Comment -
You got it GT. NEARLY took them last night at -4...but for once I decided to not bet an overnight line and see how it panned out... and of course it moved a full point. Ah well... still like em.
1 Unit
Notre Dame -5 (-105)Comment -
Forgot to mention... Good luck!Comment -
1 Unit
Notre Dame -5 (-105) - WIN
This year in Big East play:
53-40-1 (56.99% ATS/Totals)
Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS/Totals)
Dog ML's 1-1 (Average line: +147.5)
+12.29 Units Total
~~~~~Average Variance: +3.34 per game~~~~~
~~Beat the closing line: +0.54 points per game~~
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FYI --- I updated my record on here to match exactly what all my actual spreadsheet records are. They had gotten slightly off because I would just update these ones based on head math and sometimes forgot or added wrong. These records are now EXACT and done by automatic updating from formulas in my spreadsheets...and now includes variance (based on the average margin of victory) and beating the closing spreads (based on a combination of the closing lines from Pinnacle/CRIS/Matchbook/The Greek).Comment -
To say ND got her done would be understating it!
...behind the arc BONANZA!
Nice winner for us both CQ. I was on it b4 you had it up!!!!!!!!!!!
Check in later, gotta' work some.
Almost TOUNEY TIME!Comment -
Thanks, and GL GT!
These are the last remaining games in the Big East this year for the regular season:
03/02 07:00 PM Wed Connecticut @ West Virginia
03/02 07:00 PM Wed Providence @ Louisville
03/02 08:00 PM Wed Cincinnati @ Marquette
03/02 08:30 PM Wed Rutgers @ DePaul
03/02 09:00 PM Wed Pittsburgh @ South Florida
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03/03 07:00 PM Thu St. John's @ Seton Hall
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03/05 12:00 PM Sat Louisville @ West Virginia
03/05 02:00 PM Sat Georgetown @ Cincinnati
03/05 02:00 PM Sat Notre Dame @ Connecticut
03/05 04:00 PM Sat Villanova @ Pittsburgh
03/05 04:00 PM Sat DePaul @ Syracuse
03/05 06:00 PM Sat Marquette @ Seton Hall
03/05 07:00 PM Sat Rutgers @ Providence
03/05 08:00 PM Sat South Florida @ St. John's
Every Big East team in play on Saturday...almost all of them with one game before Saturday. Will be looking into a lot of key situations and performance indicators as well as checking my models to hopefully close out the season at > 57%.
Good luck!Comment -
Thanks CQ!
I'll bookmark that...Comment -
Purdue -9 fell a couple pts. short last night. The Illini came out guns blazing but cooled somewhat.
Who you got tonight?Comment -
So far... 1 play but just started digging. Wanna post it before this before it moves though. Maybe more in a bit.
1 Unit
Rutgers -4 (-110) (The Greek)
Good luck!Comment -
I know you follow the big east a lot any answers to why Uconn is getting 5 at WV. I was thinking maybe WV by 1 or a pick em.Comment -
In Uconn's last 4 games that they lost they lost by more than 5. This is gonna be a tough game on the road for UConn... Honestly it's a close one. I have West Virginia -3.8. So UConn covers by 1.2.... I'll pass. Good luck to you though!Comment -
Also
UConn ATS 13-9
WV ATS 10-14
UConn ATS AWAY: 7-4
WVU ATS HOME: 6-7
This should regress to the mean.
Not a really good reason not to take a team, just a little tid bit I just saw.Comment -
With Louisville striking like a snake, this nut lays 1200 on Providence ML......
GO RUTGERS!!!!!!
Lookin' good @ the half!
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Rutgers blew a HUGE ass lead in that game (18 points?)... I'm still pissed about it... especially because I also liked Pitt and Cincy last night but thought Rutgers was the best play...
I guess at least Rutgers PUSHED but come on...
No play on the St. John's game tonight... slight lean towards St. John's.Comment -
Change of plans here...
1 Unit
St. John's -2.5 (-106)
Good Luck!
Comment -
Hi CQ,
Looooooong day for me. Just ate and tuned in.
St. Jinny on TV... 2:00min. to go!
Looks like SH...!
DAMN!Comment -
These refs can suck my dick. I wonder how much ONE of them is getting paid. A number of over-turned calls all against St. John's that initially were in their favor. They are doing such a shit ******* job that the coach got thrown out of the arena for flipping out over it. I can't really blame him when the refs just gave the game away. ******* pathetic.Comment -
How's this for a halftime score:
CS Northridge 4/UC Davis 9.
The o/u was 146.5... should have been say 20.
Too funny!Comment -
Hi CQ!
Just checking in to get you pushed back to pg. 1 for awhile.
I'll catch you later today.Comment -
Looking into tomorrow HUGE slew of games... will be back later with results!Comment -
Tomorrow's card, final card of the season, going to hit 57% on the year, and close to 66% on the conference season.
1 Unit
Marquette +1
Cincinnati -3
Good luck!
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Good morning CQ,
Well, you're on the right side of CBS Daily Selections w/Marquette
They have MQ 71 over SH 64.
Wrong side of CBSDS on Cincinnati.
Cinncy 67 over GTWN 66.
I'll probably tail you on both these plays.
GL on both... to us both.
Check you a little later.
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GT I am on the sharp side of the Cincy game, I don't care what CBS says
Cincy is at -4 now with only 49% on Cincy. It opened at -2.5/-3 ...
Marquette is still hovering between PICK and +1.
Good luck!
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I'm w/you CQ!!!!!!
I'm excited, just hit this:
PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
[514] RICHMOND -145
[515] LOUISVILLE +3½-110
[517] KANSAS -3½-110
[522] ILLINOIS -600
[642] GEORGE MASON -1400
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Very nice call on Cinncy CQ!
Jumped it LARGE.
THANK YOU!!!
I'm also on your Marquette play and parlayed the 2.
Here's to our continued LUCK tonight!
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Hi CQ,
Sorry about the Marquette loss. I know you're
!!!!!!
It hit me pretty strong, what with parlaying them w/Cinncy, but I still had a good, UP day .
I played C of C -8 over Elon in the Socon Touney for a nice payout.
I may hit C of C again today in their Touney against Furman, but don't know exactly how yet.
No BIGE today.
GL today... if you play at all. I'll put up anything I see worthwhile for consideration.Comment -
That Marquette game was brutal...
This year in Big East play:
54-42-2 (56.25% ATS/Totals)
Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)
Dog ML's 1-1 (Average line: +147.5)
+10.13 Units Total
~~~~~Average Variance: +3.11 per game~~~~~
~~Beat the closing line: +0.55 points per game~~
Now... if you break it down even further...this is where I did the best:
In Conference games:
35-20 (63.64% ATS)
Here's to a great conference season and to continued success in the tourneys.
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I'd say that is a very nice regular season record CQ!
Here's to doing well thru the tounaments.
Then it's on to MBL for me. I love playing the First Inning Score YES_NO's!Comment -
Are you posting conference Touney plays CQ?Comment -
The Big East Tourney: Depending on how bad teams want to win them vs. how well they want to be rested for the Big Dance, there can be a lot of value in the conference tourney. The Big East is a tough cookie to crack because the bottom 5 teams could all beat the middle pack of teams on any given day, especially because the bottom 5 teams NEED to beat the middle teams because they can only get into the big dance with a conference tourney win. So...let's find value in the odds:
Cincinnati +2500
Connecticut +2000
Georgetown +1200
Louisville +500
Notre Dame +200
Pittsburgh +200
St Johns +650
Syracuse +300
Villanova +3000
West Virginia +1200
Field +3000
First off, Pitt and Notre Dame are sucker bets as they both should be closer to +300, but one of them will probably win. Nova has virtually 0% chance of taking down the tourney and even at +3000, is a terrible bet. They will want to make a showing...maybe win their first game maybe their second...but even that is a maybe. If you want to go the +3000 route...
Field +3000
I truly believe this bet holds the most value BY FAR!
Take a look at the teams involved in the field:
Marquette: Already a projected 10th seed in the Big Dance. How are they not 30-1 themselves?
Now comes the bonuses!
Seton Hall: They've been SUPER HOT the last two games. The only way Jeremy Hazell is dancing is if the Pirates can come up with a Big East tourney championship. Can they dig DEEP?
Rutgers: They face a hot Seton Hall team in the first round. If they can beat SH, they move on to face a St. John's team who unfairly gets home court advantage. Can either Rutgers or Seton Hall beat St. John's on home turf? Doubt it.
But they both have reasons to FIGHT for their lives, AND one of them is guaranteed to make the second round at the minimum. Also consider that ALL of the NEED to win is on our side while all of the PRESSURE of winning at home is on St. John's side. Even if there's a 25% chance that we have a team in the 3rd round already, we're doing great.
Providence: They match up against Marquette in the first round, our "best" horse in this race. Automatically we have a second team into the second round either way. Now if Marquette faces West Virginia in the second round (which they will with a win)...Marquette already beat West Virginia this year. Say they have a 45% chance to make the 3rd round. Well, then Marquette faces Louisville who IN Louisville earlier this year Marquette lost by 1. Say they have another 45% chance to win that game and bam we've got a team into the 4th round potentially.
DePaul and USF have little to no chance to make it past the second rounds in their bracket legs...which also culminate into Pittsburgh and Notre Dame respectively. So I'll leave them out...but we'll give them a 1% chance to get into the 3rd round.
Now comes the money: Hedging. There's nothing better than having a number of horses in the same race...but when you are getting 30-1 on your money, it's VERY easy to BET AGAINST YOUR HORSES!
If a horse can make it to the 3rd or 4th rounds, which I think we've established will happen WAY more than 30-1 times....we can start betting AGAINST our best horse. Just small bets...but with the promise of making a couple units in the end or getting paid off around 10-1 in the end if our horse does end up winning.
Any how, good luck and enjoy the tourney!Comment