Alright, today I have:
1 Unit
Wisconsin -3.5
Cincinnati +4 [BoDog]
BYU +1.5
Good luck!
1 Unit
Wisconsin -3.5
Cincinnati +4 [BoDog]
BYU +1.5
Good luck!
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Yeah CQ, It's kinda' funny to me too. Last year I had a fairly large wager acct. built thru NCAA regular season, mostly ACC, SOCON and some SEC, with a smattering of other obvious gimme locks ... w/ eyes on killing the NCAA and NIT Touneys. Even did fairly well w/ the conference Tounaments. But I let the NCAA and NIT Touneys take it back. I'm gun shy as all hell this year. I'll confess that I even play with SBR points alot during this time... just to protect my account.
Thanks for the posted plays you just put up... I'm on 'em w/o wavering...
GL today friend!
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Glad to see you on BYU... talk/favorite is all Zags.
I think BYU might make it thru this one. I look for Jimmer and Co. to step up.
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WOW CQ!
You see Pitt/Butler?
I voted the other day on ESPN.com that Pitt would be the !st. #1 seed out.
The voting was like 49% Pitt would be.
Tried to find a prop to that effect to see what the odds were, but never did.
BYU, thus far, is just out walkin' the dog........
Wisconsin... a little work to do... but I'm liking it!Comment -
Very nice GT! I personally ended up doing 1 unit on both Wiscy and BYU and only a half a unit on Cincy. I'm glad you also went the same route I went. I never post 1/2 unit plays (and I rarely make 1/2 unit plays) but for some reason after I posted, I saw something I didn't like about that game and went down to a 1/2 instead.
Good day for us both!
Be back in the morning with any plays for the day. Not sure action-wise what I'll have but I'm excited for nearly ALL of the games tomorrow!
Also my brackets are in the top 5 in a LOT of competitions I'm in (some with 1000's of entrants!) So I'm happy about that, but Pitt probably screwed me out of any future points...that one nailed me. Sick ending. Just sick.Comment -
NCAA Tournament record:
4-2 (66.67%) +2.4 UnitsComment -
snapperman: thanks for the points, I appreciate it
Let's see what we've got today...
1 Unit
Washington +5 [BoDog]
May have some more later, but that game starts soon, so I'll post it now.Comment -
Yeah,Also my brackets are in the top 5 in a LOT of competitions I'm in (some with 1000's of entrants!) So I'm happy about that, but Pitt probably screwed me out of any future points...that one nailed me. Sick ending. Just sick.
I guess Pitt has sort of been that way most of the season. Just couldn't trust them to win, but scared to go against them.
I was looking at Washington last night myself. Was going to make that play myself this morning, but I stayed up too late and subsequently got up too late and w/ too much to do, to get it in.
GL on it... looks good for the 2nd. half... need Isaiah to get going w/ some scoring!
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I'll be checking in w/you here throughout the day!
GLCQ!Comment -
[COLOR=#000000 ! important] 1 Unit
Washington +5 [BoDog] - WIN
NCAA Tournament record:
5-2 (66.67%) +3.4 Units
Feel like I'm gonna puke after that game... Needed Washington to win for my bracket... and Washington was leading for like 35 minutes in that game... At least this bet won...
[/COLOR]Comment -
Very nice cover on Washington CQ!
Wish I'd gotten on the play last nite, instead I missed it all together...
Glad UNC won so the ACC has SOME representation going forward in the Touney(along w/ Duke, they should handle Mich. easily today... and MAY win the Touney).
But I really hate to see the faces on the Washington players, and any loosing team, in the tounaments.
I was reseaching the Duke game. Think I'll lay off it and play the 3:05pm NBA NY Knicks (-2) @ Milwaukee Brewers instead... seems like easier money.
Any thoughts yet on Marq./Cuse?Comment -
I'd lay of Duke...I like Michigan to cover the spread here. +12.5 is a lot of points...
Marquette / Syracuse line is correct I think. Spread is about dead on where I'd put it. I think Cuse will win...but 5 points is a shaky area...all will come down to fouling and what not at the end of the game...and a couple makes or misses will flip the spread.Comment -
Marg./cuse...
I'd say it's playing out pretty much as you called it.
... VCU
See you tomorrow CQ!Comment -
I ended up taking Michigan +12.5 for half a unit, that was nice!
No plays til next Thursday!! AHH! Lots of time for research this time.Comment -
16 teams from 10 conferences left.
Seedings left:
3 ea. - #1's
3 ea. - #2
2 ea. - #3
2 ea. - #4
1 ea. - #5
1 ea. - #8
1 ea. - #10
2 ea. - #11
1 ea. - #12
Left by Conference:
A10 - 1ea. Richmond
ACC - 3ea. Duke, UNC, Florida St.
BigE - 2ea. UCONN, Marquette
Big10 - 2ea. Wisconsin, Ohio St.
Big12 - 1ea. Kansas
COL - 1ea. VCU
HOR - 1ea. Butler
MWC - 2ea. SDSU, BYU
PAC10 - 1ea. Arizona
SEC - 2ea. Florida, KentuckyComment -
great day for allComment -
NIT - 'Bama -6
Only play for me tonight.
NM Lobos coach Steve Alford already preparing their fanbase for a loss.
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For those who follow my thread: I made a large post, so I made it in a different thread for the first time. Go check it out!Comment -
GOT IT!
... but just barely. Alabama let off the gas and NM almost fouled away the Bama spread!
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Washington St. -7 seemed like too many... so I stayed away... and of course it hit.
Good day CQ... will check here with you after a ays work.Comment -
I know where he is... down in the lab, researching
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Alright...2 plays for ya.
Tonight:
0.5 Units
Colorado -10.5 (-105) 5 Dimes
Thursday:
1 Unit
San Diego State +1 (-110) [BoDog]
Potentially more plays for Thursday, it's still really early...still watching lines move and settle. Thought holding off on the UConn public love fest and betting San Diego State LATE (closer to tip off) would be the best move... but Pinny has moved to -1 for SDSU already, and I think the line will hold on PICK and then move to -1 / -1.5 closer to game time. (In fact, I have SDSU winning this game by more than a couple... though i think Kemba & Co will keep it close)
But I watched Wiscy move from 4 to 5 overnight today and I nearly took them yesterday... (have them winning by 6.5...but some things didn't quite check out so I laid off)
Good Luck!Comment -
Oh... but FYI, if you read my FUTURES THREAD then you'll know I looked into these bets moderately. I bet:
0.1667 Units to win 3.333 Units
Wisconsin to win Championship
There are a number of reasons beyond the futures stats I ran (and that Snapperman corroborated) that I love this bet.
Ask me why and I'll explain. Don't ask me, and I won't! Lack of interest in my futures thread has lead me to believe no one cares about winning... (beyond the 2 people who actually read this! Thanks GT and Snapperman)
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Why Wisconsin? Especailly when they face the giant killers aka Butler.
I find it hard to bet against Butler as dogs. They have covered, and won every game as a dog in the tourny for the past 2 years.
Though I can not bet this game, since its two "smart" coaches facing off. I would rather bet against a nit-wit, such as Roy Williams.
GLComment -
You're welcome... and I'm on your futures thread.Oh... but FYI, if you read my FUTURES THREAD then you'll know I looked into these bets moderately. I bet:
0.1667 Units to win 3.333 Units
Wisconsin to win Championship
There are a number of reasons beyond the futures stats I ran (and that Snapperman corroborated) that I love this bet.
Ask me why and I'll explain. Don't ask me, and I won't! Lack of interest in my futures thread has lead me to believe no one cares about winning... (beyond the 2 people who actually read this! Thanks GT and Snapperman)
But no time to discuss it now.
HOT DOG! Glad to see you on Colorada Buffaloes -10.5. I got it early!
(I knew you'd surface)..........
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... and GL TO US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Here's why HoulihansTX (thanks for asking!):
A. You are exactly correct that Butler has been covering...in fact, way too much. That means they are outperforming how good they actually are, and eventually will regress to the mean. Why? Because the lines will start to get set too high (like Butler +4 when it should be Butler +7)
B. Every team to win the national championship in the last SIX years has had an OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATING OF #1 (4 times) or #2 (2 times). This is one thing every single champion has in common in the last 6 years. 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1
C. Wisconsin's Offensive Efficiency rating: #2.
Now here's why Wiscy won't beat the #1 Offensively Efficient team: It's Ohio State.
And Ohio State's Defensive Efficiency is #6 (compared to Wisconsin's #60).
HOWEVER, Wisconsin, on Feb 12, 2011, BEAT OSU 71-67 (later in the year OSU destroyed Wiscy, but the point is that Wiscy knows OSU is not invincible.)
So give me 20-1 on Wisconsin, in a beat up quadrant of the bracket (Pitt gone, BYU missing Davies, no one thinks Florida deserves a #2 seed, and Butler is LUCKY to be where they are. Yeah, I said it. Lucky. Butler is in a whopping 34th place in Offensive Eff, and 74th in Defense. Even if you take the champion/offensive-eff stats back two more years (which is as far as I looked) then the next two teams to win had Offensive Efficiencies of 4th and 11th! Not too shabby a stat.
That being said, Butler will still win the game on Thursday some 20-odd% of the time. But at 20-1, with not only these factors, but others aswell, and a nice chart that I made that breaks down Log5 analysis and says Wiscy is some 10-1 to win, and we're getting 20-1. Don't go big on it...but take a TINY piece and 10% of the time you'll make 20 times your money.Comment -
Colorado -10.5 made me altitude sick!!!!!!!!!
Good day CQ, how's it going Friend?Comment -
C of C +8 1/2 tonight.
Witchta St. hot and home.
C of C's Goudelock should keep it at least close........Comment -
Nothing goin tonight...can't wait for tomorrow night. Pretty much am very interested in every game tomorrow, but only 1 or 2 on Friday.Comment -
C of C covered!
It was a great game to watch and C of C stole the show!
Goudelock... what a playa'... NBA bound!
Hope you saw it CQ!
... on to tomorrow... waiting... put 'em up my friend!Comment -
Good morning CQ!
SDSU +1 tonight.
Put 12 SBR points on Wash. St. -3 1/2 b4 going to bed last night... ended WS -3.
Woe is me
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Thinking of going this way for tonight:
BYU +3
WiskyML
SDSU+1
Duke Ml
Straight wagered and parlayed.........
Comment on this CQ if you have time and will. Would appreciate it.
GTComment
