Consider this:
Bookmaker just put up these odds:
Marquette +1300
Seton Hall +1200
And we get them both for +3000?! Unreal.
Bookmaker just put up these odds:
Marquette +1300
Seton Hall +1200
And we get them both for +3000?! Unreal.
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Official play:
0.167 Units to win 5 Units
Marquette/Seton Hall/Rutgers/USF/Providence/DePaul (AKA "The Field") to win the Big East Tourney (+3000) [BoDog]
Good Luck!Comment -
Great analysis CQ!
I'm w/you on that....Comment -
This is the most underrated thread on SBR.
I lurk around this thread everyday. Keep up the good work.Comment -
Thank you Houlihans
I really appreciate that - I put a LOT of hard work into what I do! Feel free to comment whenever you stop by!
And thanks GT
No plays today... just watching our futures play. DePaul is out (not a surprise) and Seton Hall is currently up by 2 over Rutgers. Tonight we cheer on Marquette (and USF? heh)Comment -
Hi CQ!
Got SH -3...
Thought it was DEAD... but going to OT!!!!!!!!!
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WOW CQ!Originally posted by CrimsonQueenThank you Houlihans I really appreciate that - I put a LOT of hard work into what I do! Feel free to comment whenever you stop by!
And thanks GT
No plays today... just watching our futures play. DePaul is out (not a surprise) and Seton Hall is currently up by 2 over Rutgers. Tonight we cheer on Marquette (and USF? heh)
Just got in a few minutes ago.
At that point SH looked OK... then the shit hit! Now OT!!!!!!!!
Also found my UCONN -13.5 had HIT!
Tounaments EXCITE ME!
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It's all good... Rutgers only lost to St. John's by 2 @ St. John's earlier in the year. So Rutgers exacted their revenge on Seton Hall...now it's time to take down St. John's!
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We had about a 19% chance to get 3 horses to the 2nd round. At 30-1 odds, this is great.
Our live horses are now:
Rutgers
USF
Winner of [Marquette/Providence]
Round 2 we will look into all the options once the lines are posted. We're only in for .16 Units... and we stand to win 5. We can EASILY parlay all three opponents in the second round and get about EVEN money or better. So we bet .2 Units to win .2 and we either have a horse alive in the third round and we're in for [0.36 Units to win 5] OR we made a .04 Unit profit. This is just an EXAMPLE... and not necessarily what we'll be doing. I'll weigh all the options...and I'll try and make sure I can post whatever I do before tip off tomorrow.Comment -
Assuming Marquette wins:
THESE ARE MY PROJECTED LINES BASED ON MY PRELIMINARY COMPUTER. LINES HAVE NOT BEEN POSTED YET...and these projected lines have not been filtered so expect them to be wrong.. they are merely for my speculation and to do some math out loud here.
Rutgers +10
USF +10.5
Marquette +2
Based on these spreads and the percents that each team will WIN STRAIGHT UP... there is a ~55% chance that ONE of our teams will make it to the third round.Comment -
Hey, remember when I said THIS on 2/21/11??? Am I psychic? I compared them to USF, too, after a loss to Syracuse...Originally posted by CrimsonQueen
They went on to lose 5 straight games and lost out of the Big East tourney to South Florida in the first round!Comment -
There's no value in hedging yet and with 55% to make the 3rd round we're gonna sit back and watch. I know this is all over .16 Units...More just for a tiny bit of value and really I'm just waiting for the REAL tourney to start.
No plays for tomorrow.Comment -
Just pointing out that I was dead on accurate with all three opening lines. My computer is sharper than the books...I could've taken so much action overnight! Why is being a bookie illegal...damn.Originally posted by CrimsonQueen
Also I like Marquette today at +2...but I won't take it because it'd be redundant.
Good luck!Comment -
WOW WOW WOW! I've never seen a game end so poorly refereed!!!! HOLY SHIT!!!! The refs gave away 2 calls and then St. John's STEPPED OUT OF BOUNDS AND THREW THE BALL INTO THE STANDS with 1.7 seconds left on the clock!!! Holy shit that was so pathetic!!!!Comment -
Just got in and finished reading the above.Comment -
Crimson u like SF 1hComment -
Sorry youngbuck. Just saw this now. I can honestly say I would not have played SF first half... I don't like either side in this game. I think all the lines were set very accurately today... But I still like Marquette a little bit. I don't think the +3 is worth taking still if you already have the 30-1 on them winning the whole thing. On the contrary I almost took WV at -1.5 earlier to hedge, but I really think Marquette is close to 50/50 here to win this game. My only concern is fatigue. I'll sit back and enjoy the game with only .16 units riding on it.Comment -
Marquette - WIN
We'll look into hedging possibilities again for tomorrow... probably will be betting against Marquette this time. Either way, we have a 30-1 shot alive with only 8 teams left... we're doing great. (Not to mention that Rutgers REALLY should still be alive... I will have nightmares about bad reffing tonight!)Comment -
Tonight we've got Marquette at 30-1 to beat Louisville....again no hedging.
Also one other play tonight.
1 Unit
Notes Dame -1.5
Good luck!Comment -
Why is the line so low.Originally posted by CrimsonQueenComment -
the line is so low because it's based on automatic mathematical calculations based on averages. I almost posted what the lines were going to open at last night and I had them at -1.5, dead on. I thought they would adjust it to -2 due to A. Public money, and B. Cincy played a game the day before (fatigue)...but they didn't open it at -2...and now it's been hit all the way up to -2.5/-3.
In theory in an average world, Notre Dame would win by exactly 1.5 every time. But consider circumstances: ND wants to win the title and has a REAL shot, especially now that Pitt is out. No one thinks ND and Pitt lose in the same day. Cincy had to play a game last night and even though it was against a crappy team, they still had to play 100% for 40 minutes. All of the numbers I ran have ND winning by more than 3.
Yes, I bet the game before Pitt lost, and no that doesn't have anything to do with my computer calculations... but the only thing I feared, -motivation-, is now no longer a concern. Now that ND is the favorite for the title, they WANT IT... I guarantee it. They will play harder tonight knowing that the title is theirs to lose.Comment -
Wasup CQ!
I hit the under 137 on Marquette/ WVA last nite.
Just reading what you have posted today.
GL tonight if you're making plays!
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I feel my intelligence improve a couple of points after reading that.Comment -
On ND CQ!
GLComment -
Sharp money is on Marquette +4 tonight. I won't take it, as AGAIN, this would be redundant to our 30-1 shot. If Marquette can pull off the upset tonight though, we'll DEFINITELY have to play against them tomorrow. *unless Cincy upsets Notre Dame... cuz Marquette vs. Cincy would make a hedge wrong possibly. But I give Marquette no chance against ND.
Reposting my play(s):
1 Unit
Notre Dame -1.5
0.16 Units to win 5
Marquette to win the Big East Tourney
Good Luck!
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ML money favors GT somewhat.
Spread money favors VT somewhat.
Brian Oliver back from broken thumb for GT.
With Oliver back for GT, I expect Shumpert to go lockdown D on M. Delaney (like they did against VT @ AMC earlier this year... and it worked).
Jeff Allen probable, but gimpy, w/ankle for VT.
Got a feeling...
GT +4 1/2
Not near a lock... but I smell it happening!
I'm on it as a medium play........
GL CQ!Comment -
ND is walking the dog!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
1 Unit
Notre Dame -1.5 - WIN
This year in Big East play:
55-42-2 (56.70% ATS/Totals)
Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)
Dog ML's 1-1 (Average line: +147.5)
+11.13 Units Total
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Way to go CQ!Originally posted by CrimsonQueen1 Unit
Notre Dame -1.5 - WIN
This year in Big East play:
55-42-2 (56.70% ATS/Totals)
Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)
Dog ML's 1-1 (Average line: +147.5)
+11.13 Units Total
We made money on that one!
Could not bring myself to take Marq. and pts. I played the under 141 for another BIGE WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!
Catch you tomorrow.......Comment -
Yeah...Marquette bombed out there...oh well. We were close to making some real money on a 30-1 shot...so it was worth it.
Still waiting for lines on tonights games...I ran the numbers last night and if I recall correctly it showed Uconn +3 and ND -1.
I doubt i'll touch either of these games...but I didn't look into them yet that much. Those are just my predicted openersComment -
Nailed the openers again
...but they adjusted the uconn game by .5 due to fatigue im sure. I really think there could be something there....that line may move...and I may move it.
The ND line WILL move...but it'll be square money and the sharps will wait til late and take LVille +2... that is my take. Alright...off to look at Syracuse.Comment -
Sharps are already hitting the +1 for Lville....I disagree but not enough to take it....(yet anyway).
1 Unit
Syracuse -3.5
Good Luck!Comment -
I bit. There's just too much I like about Notre Dame here... I can't deny them.
1 Unit
Syracuse -3.5
Notre Dame -1
Good luck!Comment -
I came tonite... had Illinois/ Mich. u126 in the bank!
GOSH THAT FELT GOOD!
Widja' on the Cuse and the Dame... although I luv L'ville almost as much as I luv ND!!!!!
WINNERS EVERYWHERE!!!!!!!!
GL tonight to us both. Will be checking in as soon as I get my bearings tonight!
I LOVE THE TOURNAMENTS CQ!
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