assuming your system you need to be playing all of the plays. Randomly picking teams, which you are doing, will only result in lost profits assuming this is a profitable system.
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True, but I also won't be making 16 plays or 20 plays in a day on days like Saturdays or Sundays when there are a ton of games on the board ... my personal preference is to stay close to five per day for my own money management. I don't mind playing maybe 7 on some days and will stick with the plays for a day like today when there is a manageable number, but double digits regardless or results is not in my blood.
Like I said at the outset these are plays that I wanted to track to see how they responded over the course of the season as early on, it seemed like the ones with +/- 2.5 point differentials were cashing better than 55% or so here early. I use these plays to automatically limit myself to looking at less per day and then I use my own gut feeling, research, etc. to pick out the plays from these Pomeroy ones that I like best.
I definitely want to leave this open to people to work with it however they choose. Some may blindly play all the ones that fit the criteria and that's cool, but for me, I work my own plays off these plays if that makes sense.Comment -
Updated with one more pick that fits the criteria and bolded the ones I like best, again those are just my choices.Comment -
Whats your overall record coming into today ? Nice job !Comment -
Guess I need to post that after each day to keep tracking the record for these plays.
Since starting to track these about 10 days ago and assuming you play everything for one unit at -105 [BetPhoenix reduced juice for me].
RECORD: 30-24 [56%]+4.80 unitsComment -
Yes, thanks for that. I did not come up with any sort of "system" for these. Read the first post in this thread and you'll see how these games are picked each day. Keep in mind that I am keeping all these plays now at +/- 2.5 points and no longer including the original 2 points referenced there.
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TOTALS are something brought up in here and I said I would wait for December to start tracking any sort of formula that perhaps we could follow with KenPom for totals. Well what I am going to do over the next week is start posting totals I see and the KenPom total next to it. I will not track all totals as there may be more added throughout the night that I am not going to be able to sit around and post all the time. What I will post are any that get put up for the earliest games like tonight:
I AM NOT ADVISING ANY PLAYS ON THESE!
This is simply to track to see if there are any trends like the point differential for sides that make sense.
11.30.10 TOTALS
Georgia Tech-Northwestern 136 [KP 136]
Iowa-Wake Forest 145 [KP 142]
MTSU-Tennessee 142 [KP 142]
Cornell-Syracuse 136.5 [KP 141]
Mississippi-Miami 144.5 [KP 148]
Ohio State-Florida State 133 [KP 129]
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If your going to do totals, you have to get them when they come out. I have 4 plays that I played in a contest and here they are.
Mia Fla/Miss over 136 KP 148 closing line 145
WF/Iowa under 146 KP 142 closing line 145
Missouri/G'town over 136 KP 147 closing line 146
New Mex st./UTEP over 136 KP 143 closing 144.5
I have been finding games at 10 point differences.
Hope this helps out. Good luck to everyone in college basketball.
Anyone going to Vegas in March for marchmadness? It's a blast out there.Comment -
Nice catch, Pete! Sadly my books don't like to put up totals until they have moved a zillion points. And dang bookmaker claims to be "where the line originates!" lolComment -
Banner evening for this formula. 5-0 right now with two plays left. Even if both lose, a quality night!
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problem is when to fade and when to tail on those big line movesComment -
quick review of last nites games..almost looks as if you are "better off" playing the "steam moves" over instead of underComment -
RECORD: 35-26 [57%]+7.70 units
Good night 5-2 ATS. Will look more at the totals data later so I can get up today's selections.
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12.1.10
Providence -7.5 [KP -11]
Temple -8 [KP -11]
Towson +1 [KP -2]
Central Florida +4.5 [KP +2]
Purdue +2 [KP -1]
Memphis -17.5 [KP -22]
SMU +4.5 [KP +2]
UC-Irvine -1 [KP -4]
Cal Poly -2 [KP -6]
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My personal opinion is to play the games early. The line has moved against almost all these games today. Not sure if this is true in the past games as I haven't looked at thread too much in the past week or so.
Eagles, what is the point difference that you are looking for now in comparing KP and offshore lines. Is it still 2.5 to 5.0?Comment -
Yes. Will consider ones over 5, but the few I have seen so far this season have not worked out well.Comment -
My only opinion on this is if you're following the formula here on these plays, if the line still falls within the parameters of a play 2.5 to 5 pt. differential, take it whenever you want. For example, last night I waited until the late afternoon [which I do routinely] and got Tennessee 1.5 points lower at -16 and got Bradley at +3 instead of +2, but also paid more on South Dakota State -7.5 instead of -6, but it was still within the 2.5 point differential with KenPom having that game at -10.
I don't think there is a certainty that getting it early will get you the best line or that waiting later will necessarily get you a better or worse line ... it's different every day.
The only thing that I think should be done every day as best as possible is to see what the lines are early to line them up against the KenPom predictions.Comment -
Ill dabble with MEmphis tonightComment -
Towson covers after being down 15 with 9 mins to go... I lost on West Mich myself but good Pomeroy win...Comment -
Memphis is real disappointing tonight. They may lose straight up against a really poor team. I thought that was one of the more solid ones on the board with these plays tonight. Tough beat on Providence. They were up eight and Northeastern hits a 3 with under a second left.Comment -
RECORD: 40-30 [57%]+8.50 units
5-4 ATS tonight with a couple of outright dog winners [UCF/Purdue] and two very close losses with SMU failing to cover by half a point and Providence losing a cover on the final shot of the game. Bottom line though is another winning day.Comment -
12.2.10
Wisconsin-Milwaukee -7.5 [KP -10]
Rider -4.5 [KP -7]
Tennessee-Martin +17 [KP +13]
If any of the smaller match-ups gets added to my book during the day, I will add more lines if they apply.
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Eagles great work once again last night.Comment -
Wow, Wisco-Mil moved from -7 to -9 on 5dimes. Sorry I missed that one.Comment -
Has anyone checked the ken pom totals vs offshore so far to see if worth playing. There are some big differences in some games. The question would be what difference should we look for . My guess would be at least a 3 pt. difference or 3 1/2 to ?.Comment -
I haven't had time to do totals enough. I am going to concentrate on sides only for now as they are time consuming enough most days.
To answer an earlier question, I think if you are playing these Pomeroy-based plays, you MUST keep your unit size consistent for each to profit ... if the formula profits in the long run.
My own opinion tonight is that these are some of the weakest plays we might have seen so far. I would expect a 1-2 night if we're lucky, but to stay consistent will play them.Comment -
Wisc-Milw game moving all over the place, not sure what to make of it.
Started at 7, in a couple of hours went all the way to 9, then went down to 8.5 and now down to 8 ???
WTF is going on a small school game, very strange movement IMO.
interesting to see what the line finishes at.
I was on at earlier at 8 and was happy to see it keep climbing but now I am starting to worry a little.Comment -
Yeah all of these lines have moved some. Usually while I wait until later in the day to see where they stand unless I absolutely love a game to start with or think the line will move against a pick. Tenn-Martin at +18.5 now is probably one to grab if you're playing it.
It is a lights sport night tonight with very little NBA, so there's probably some more action for hoops fans on college hoops tonight as a result.Comment -
hey ep what is this a system and you pick what makes sense to you of the picks ep?Comment -
My personal opinion as to when to play the games that qualify is to try to hit the opening numbers or close to them if you have a team that's a play within the point differential. I think that most of the time the line will move with the POM prediction but I haven't tested it to see if that's so.Comment -
Not a system Jim. Using KenPom.com. The guy uses all sorts of variables to predict the outcome of the games. What I noticed early in the season was that when the line listed by sportsbooks was more than 2.5 points different, the plays seemed to hit a lot. Tracking those plays in this thread. I simply list all the lines that fall into that category in this thread and let everyone decipher for themselves what they want to do with that info - blindly follow the formula or pick and choose picks off the list.Comment
I'll pass for now
