Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

usma1992 · 03-14-24, 08:27 AM

Some big games today... 5*

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
3:00 PM	TCU	62	HOUSTON	78	140	-10	137.5	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
6:30 PM	NIAGARA	66	MARIST	68	134	1	129.0	Home Plus 3*	Too Close
7:00 PM	KANSAS ST	62	IOWA ST	74	136	-6.5	132.5	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
9:00 PM	ST JOSEPHS	75	RIDER	73	149	0	129.5	Too Close	Over 4*

usma1992 · 03-15-24, 12:12 PM

This is my honest assessment of the Rider game. So the Rider bet was way off last night... but here is my take. The average possessions for St.Joes is 50.5 with my (proprietary) points per shot of 1.28 which is different from normal PPS slightly which equates to 76.18. The average possessions for Rider is 60 with my proprietary points per shot of 1.21 which equates to 72.6. So the obvious question is what happened?
Was the pace of play that bad? St. Joes had 52 shots and Rider had 58 shots. If you multiply that by their average pps, they come up with 66.56 points and 70 points for a rough total of 137. So even taking into account... less shot totals then normal... they still hit the over.

However, both teams shot below 30% which is crazy. 3-13 from 3 Point range versus 2-15 from 3 Point range.

So the next question is whether their defenses are that good. I looked at all the defensive statistics and their defenses aren't great... average at best. So my final analysis they both just couldn't hit a thing ... not a bad bet... they just both sucked. This is what I do on games that way off.

I stand by my bet. This is type of bet that I just chalk up to gambling... I make zero adjustments and don't even consider any adjustments.

Hopefully this is the type of analysis that keeps me successful.

Dave

usma1992 · 03-15-24, 12:12 PM

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2:30 PM	WISCONSIN	73	NORTHWESTERN	74	147	4	136.0	Home Plus 4*	Too Close
3:00 PM	MIDDLE TENN ST	67	W KENTUCKY	78	145	-6	147.0	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
6:30 PM	ST JOSEPHS	74	QUINNIPIAC	77	151	-2	136.0	Too Close	Over 4*
7:00 PM	TEXAS TECH	59	HOUSTON	77	137	-9	132.0	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
9:30 PM	NC STATE	66	VIRGINIA	71	137	-2.5	121.5	Too Close	Over 4*

Neek762 · 03-15-24, 01:31 PM

Also, weird shit happens in March. Line manipulation going on factored in with human error in high importance games!

usma1992 · 03-16-24, 07:46 AM

Both 5* hit again. UVA OT game ... I take as a loss 2-3 yesterday. Here are todays bets...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:00 PM	MISSISSIPPI ST	65	AUBURN	78	143	-7.5	143.5	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
6:00 PM	IOWA ST	61	HOUSTON	72	133	-5	121.0	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
7:30 PM	ST JOSEPHS	75	FAIRFIELD	76	151	-2.5	128.5	Too Close	Over 4*

usma1992 · 03-16-24, 08:13 AM

Anybody still out there other than NEEK and RMLogic...

Dave

acehole · 03-16-24, 09:32 AM

Yensel · 03-16-24, 10:22 AM

Following daily. Thanks, Dave.

Neek762 · 03-16-24, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Both 5* hit again. UVA OT game ... I take as a loss 2-3 yesterday. Here are todays bets...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:00 PM	MISSISSIPPI ST	65	AUBURN	78	143	-7.5	143.5	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
6:00 PM	IOWA ST	61	HOUSTON	72	133	-5	121.0	Home Minus 5*	Too Close
7:30 PM	ST JOSEPHS	75	FAIRFIELD	76	151	-2.5	128.5	Too Close	Over 4*

I'm noticing some of your teams have been labeled incorrectly? I hope the data isn't tied to the team names

usma1992 · 03-16-24, 11:02 AM

Be specific...

Neek762 · 03-16-24, 11:14 AM

St Peters is playing Fairfield ... Joes play VCU

and yesterday you had Peters and Joes swapped playing Quinnipiac

usma1992 · 03-16-24, 12:08 PM

Thank you... names are absolutely tied to data... but it is very difficult managing multiple websites and their nomenclature.

Dave

RM Logic · 03-16-24, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Neek762

St Peters is playing Fairfield ... Joes play VCU

and yesterday you had Peters and Joes swapped playing Quinnipiac

St. Peter's couldnt score 75 points if they played 3 halves. They are the ultimate slow slug horrible offense.

usma1992 · 03-17-24, 08:09 AM

Thanks for the catch.... my betting website changed their names from St. Peter's to St. Peters. Both of those games were no bets.

It grabbed St. Josephs stats. No wonder my lines were so off. Enjoy

No bets today.

jamesrav · 03-18-24, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by Neek762

Also, weird shit happens in March. Line manipulation going on factored in with human error in high importance games!

that's an interesting heuristic built up over years of astute observation ... or it's wrong

. If demonstrated by data, then the model has to be adjusted to account for different conditions (ie the time of the year). I'm sure Dave is not overjoyed to hear that may be the case. As he has asked "does the NBA start playing defense after the all star game?", it shows that trying to map reality to a dozen basic stats may not be good enough if things are (historically) known to change at certain points in a season. But I recall testing some opinions a life-long hockey bettor had (eg home teams on a homestand do exceptionally well after losing the 1st game badly) and none panned out in terms of making money. They may have been somewhat true, but the lines also adjusted.

Neek762 · 03-18-24, 03:49 PM

I think the "different conditions" boils down to being variance + neutral courts, which can be a reason why weird shit happens ... there is something to be said about fading line movement these past couple weeks and how many 1 seeds were booted. I could be wrong, but I'm assuming compiling normal home + away data is too far off when trying to originate for neutral court games. I noticed a lot of "gambling twitter" that rely on algos and models weren't doing so hot these past couple weeks when they were killing it in Feb, which was my worst month lol. Steven Golden even had to go private on twitter because he was losing his ass so hard and there's guys paying him for picks.

usma1992 · 03-18-24, 07:29 PM

NIT and March Madness Data... my spreads and totals are very close to Vegas most of the time... but I am posting all the games...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2024-03-19	WAGNER	69	HOWARD	70	139	-3	128.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	N TEXAS	71	LSU	70	141	-2.5	135.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	BOSTON COLLEGE	72	PROVIDENCE	73	146	-3.5	138.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	XAVIER	75	GEORGIA	74	150	-1.5	152.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	CORNELL	74	OHIO ST	78	152	-10.5	155.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	RICHMOND	72	VIRGINIA TECH	71	143	-5.5	143.5	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	MINNESOTA	74	BUTLER	79	153	-3.5	147.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	S FLORIDA	68	UCF	71	139	-4.5	140.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	KANSAS ST	73	IOWA	79	152	-6	157.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:10 PM	COLORADO ST	67	VIRGINIA	67	134	2.5	120.5	Too Close	Too Close
11:00 PM	UC-IRVINE	73	UTAH	77	150	-7.5	148.0	Too Close	Too Close
2024-03-20	GRAMBLING	68	MONTANA ST	74	142	-4	135.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	ST JOSEPHS	72	SETON HALL	74	145	-7	145.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	SMU	74	INDIANA ST	77	150	-7	156.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	LOYOLA-IL	68	BRADLEY	72	140	-4.5	137.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	UNLV	69	PRINCETON	73	142	-3	138.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	APPALACHIAN ST	72	WAKE FOREST	76	148	-7	145.5	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	SAN FRANCISCO	72	CINCINNATI	75	147	-6	142.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	VA COMMONWEALTH	65	VILLANOVA	70	135	-6	131.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:10 PM	COLORADO	74	BOISE ST	72	146	2.5	140.5	Too Close	Too Close

usma1992 · 03-18-24, 07:30 PM

March Madness Thursday..

2024-03-21	MICHIGAN ST	71	MISSISSIPPI ST	69	140	1	130.5	Too Close	Too Close
12:40 PM	DUQUESNE	66	BYU	79	145	-9.5	142.5	Too Close	Too Close
1:30 PM	AKRON	68	CREIGHTON	79	147	-12.5	141.5	Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	66	ARIZONA	90	157	-20.5	161.5	Too Close	Too Close
3:10 PM	MOREHEAD ST	72	ILLINOIS	77	149	-11.5	147.5	Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	OREGON	70	S CAROLINA	73	143	-1.5	132.0	Too Close	Too Close
4:30 PM	NEVADA	70	DAYTON	70	139	1.5	137.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	OAKLAND	73	KENTUCKY	90	163	-14	163.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:25 PM	MCNEESE ST	72	GONZAGA	76	148	-6.5	150.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	S DAKOTA ST	63	IOWA ST	79	142	-16.5	135.5	Too Close	Too Close
9:20 PM	ST PETERS	56	TENNESSEE	79	135	-21.5	130.5	Too Close	Too Close
9:40 PM	NC STATE	72	TEXAS TECH	76	147	-5	146.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:55 PM	SAMFORD	74	KANSAS	74	148	-7.5	152.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	DRAKE	73	WASHINGTON ST	73	146	1.5	138.0	Too Close	Too Close

usma1992 · 03-18-24, 07:31 PM

March Madness Friday... Excluding play in games...

2024-03-22	NORTHWESTERN	74	FLA ATLANTIC	77	152	-2.5	142.5	Too Close	Too Close
12:40 PM	COLGATE	69	BAYLOR	77	146	-13.5	139.0	Too Close	Too Close
1:45 PM	UAB	66	SAN DIEGO ST	76	142	-7	139.0	Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	W KENTUCKY	70	MARQUETTE	81	151	-13.5	158.0	Too Close	Too Close
2:45 PM	STETSON	61	CONNECTICUT	85	146	-24.5	144.5	Too Close	Too Close
3:10 PM	NEW MEXICO	77	CLEMSON	72	149	2	151.0	Too Close	Too Close
4:15 PM	YALE	65	AUBURN	80	145	-13	140.5	Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	TEXAS A&M	71	NEBRASKA	75	146	-1	147.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	VERMONT	67	DUKE	77	144	-11.5	132.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	COLL OF CHARLESTON	78	ALABAMA	87	165	-9.5	174.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:20 PM	LONGWOOD	54	HOUSTON	81	135	-24.5	128.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:40 PM	JAMES MADISON	77	WISCONSIN	72	148	-5.5	145.0	Away Plus 4*	Too Close
9:55 PM	TCU	75	UTAH ST	72	147	3.5	150.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	GRAND CANYON	63	ST MARYS-CA	73	135	-5.5	132.5	Too Close	Too Close

usma1992 · 03-18-24, 07:31 PM

NIT Saturday and Sunday

2024-03-23	BETHUNE-COOKMAN	69	ARKANSAS ST	79	148	-12.5	153.0	Too Close	Under 3*
3:30 PM	CHICAGO ST	64	CAL SAN DIEGO	77	142	-11	141.0	Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	DELAWARE ST	61	SEATTLE	77	138	-13	136.5	Too Close	Too Close
2024-03-24	CLEVELAND ST	79	N COLORADO	76	155	0	157.5	Too Close	Too Close
1:30 PM	PRESBYTERIAN	70	MONTANA	76	146	-8	151.0	Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	ARK-LITTLE ROCK	75	FAIRFIELD	75	149	0	152.5	Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	EVANSVILLE	72	QUINNIPIAC	79	150	-2.5	154.0	Too Close	Too Close

usma1992 · 03-18-24, 07:38 PM

Based on this data... the games worth looking at are

BYU-
Morehead St+
McNeese St+
Samford+
JMU+

Haven't looked at Over/Unders.

Dave

Neek762 · 03-18-24, 10:53 PM

Interested on the James Madison line ... Alan Boston was and probably still is huge on +5.5 and once he made that statement there was huge line movement in their favor but now it's back at +5.5

usma1992 · 03-19-24, 07:24 PM

Amazed how many of my spreads are within a point or two of Vegas. I must have done something right. Good Luck to all during march madness.

Dave

Neek762 · 03-20-24, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Amazed how many of my spreads are within a point or two of Vegas. I must have done something right. Good Luck to all during march madness.

Dave

That's not always a good thing though since the line gets sharper as the day goes on and as action from
sharps come in. When your line differs is when your edge shows. One originator I follow had Wagner favored by -4.5 last night for example so he had clear value on Wagner+. Harder to tell your edge when it's close to "Vegas"

usma1992 · 03-20-24, 02:28 PM

I understand... my system... may not be built for march madness but after the year I have had... I will gladly bow out of having picks. I highlighted the ones that I think the model says you should consider.

Dave

jamesrav · 03-20-24, 04:16 PM

MOREHEAD ST

72

ILLINOIS

77

149

-11.5

so a game like this doesn't achieve a 3* star rating, even though your 5pt differential is quite different than Vegas' 11.5 ? Is there a 'margin for error' value you factor in at the very end that really decides things? I'm not a spread bettor, but in watching a lot of these YT vids, it seems like the sharp bettors make decisions based on just a .5 or 1 pt differential (that they prefer). Does back-testing show that within the margin for error it's not profitable, or is that a 'gut-based' decision?

usma1992 · 03-21-24, 08:03 AM

Loosened it up for March Madness...

2024-03-21	MICHIGAN ST	71	MISSISSIPPI ST	69	140	1	130.5	Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	DUQUESNE	63	BYU	79	143	-9.5	142.5	Home Minus	Too Close
1:30 PM	AKRON	67	CREIGHTON	79	146	-12.5	141.5	Too Close	Over
2:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	64	ARIZONA	90	154	-20.5	161.5	Home Minus	Under
2:45 PM	WAGNER	45	N CAROLINA	83	128	-24.5	133.5	Home Minus	Under
3:10 PM	MOREHEAD ST	72	ILLINOIS	77	149	-11.5	147.5	Away Plus	Too Close
4:00 PM	OREGON	71	S CAROLINA	73	143	-1.5	132.0	Too Close	Over
4:30 PM	NEVADA	70	DAYTON	70	139	1.5	137.0	Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	COLORADO ST	72	TEXAS	74	145	-2.5	144.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	OAKLAND	73	KENTUCKY	90	163	-14	163.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:25 PM	MCNEESE ST	72	GONZAGA	76	148	-6.5	150.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	S DAKOTA ST	55	IOWA ST	79	134	-16.5	135.5	Home Minus	Too Close
9:20 PM	ST PETERS	37	TENNESSEE	79	116	-21.5	130.5	Home Minus	Under
9:40 PM	NC STATE	72	TEXAS TECH	76	147	-5	146.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:55 PM	SAMFORD	75	KANSAS	74	150	-7.5	152.5	Away Plus	Too Close
10:05 PM	DRAKE	73	WASHINGTON ST	73	146	1.5	138.0	Too Close	Over

usma1992 · 03-21-24, 08:04 AM

2024-03-22	NORTHWESTERN	76	FLA ATLANTIC	77	153	-2.5	142.5	Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	COLGATE	68	BAYLOR	77	145	-13.5	139.0	Away Plus	Over
1:45 PM	UAB	64	SAN DIEGO ST	76	140	-7	139.0	Home Minus	Too Close
2:00 PM	W KENTUCKY	70	MARQUETTE	81	151	-13.5	158.0	Too Close	Under
2:45 PM	STETSON	51	CONNECTICUT	85	137	-24.5	144.5	Home Minus	Under
3:10 PM	NEW MEXICO	82	CLEMSON	72	154	2	151.0	Away Minus	Too Close
4:15 PM	YALE	61	AUBURN	80	140	-13	140.5	Home Minus	Too Close
4:30 PM	COLORADO	82	FLORIDA	81	163	-1.5	159.5	Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	TEXAS A&M	71	NEBRASKA	75	146	-1	147.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	VERMONT	64	DUKE	77	141	-11.5	132.5	Too Close	Over
7:25 PM	GRAMBLING	44	PURDUE	86	129	-26.5	140.5	Home Minus	Under
7:35 PM	COLL OF CHARLESTON	83	ALABAMA	87	170	-9.5	174.0	Away Plus	Under
9:20 PM	LONGWOOD	31	HOUSTON	81	112	-24.5	128.0	Home Minus	Under
9:40 PM	JAMES MADISON	80	WISCONSIN	72	152	-5.5	145.0	Away Plus	Over
9:55 PM	TCU	77	UTAH ST	72	148	3.5	150.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	GRAND CANYON	55	ST MARYS-CA	73	128	-5.5	132.5	Home Minus	Under

usma1992 · 03-21-24, 08:24 AM

Scrap ALL THOSE PICKS ABOVE!!!! I was heading to dentist.

RM Logic · 03-21-24, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Scrap ALL THOSE PICKS ABOVE!!!! I was heading to dentist.

Lol. Just got back from the dentist. Never enjoyable. Same old- you need to floss. Which I never do.

Seriously the lines are just really tight.
The only game I really like is Samford +7.5, Kansas is a mess and the game is at altitude which helps Samford who plays alot of guys. Kansas has no bench.

usma1992 · 03-21-24, 10:18 AM

2024-03-21	MICHIGAN ST	71	MISSISSIPPI ST	69	140	1	130.5	Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	DUQUESNE	66	BYU	79	145	-9.5	142.5	Home Minus	Too Close
1:30 PM	AKRON	68	CREIGHTON	79	147	-12.5	141.5	Too Close	Over
2:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	66	ARIZONA	90	157	-20.5	161.5	Home Minus	Under
2:45 PM	WAGNER	59	N CAROLINA	83	141	-24.5	133.5	Too Close	Over
3:10 PM	MOREHEAD ST	72	ILLINOIS	77	149	-11.5	147.5	Away Plus	Too Close
4:00 PM	OREGON	70	S CAROLINA	73	143	-1.5	132.0	Too Close	Over
4:30 PM	NEVADA	70	DAYTON	70	139	1.5	137.0	Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	COLORADO ST	72	TEXAS	74	145	-2.5	144.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	OAKLAND	73	KENTUCKY	90	163	-14	163.5	Home Minus	Too Close
7:25 PM	MCNEESE ST	72	GONZAGA	76	148	-6.5	150.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	S DAKOTA ST	63	IOWA ST	79	142	-16.5	135.5	Too Close	Over
9:20 PM	ST PETERS	56	TENNESSEE	79	135	-21.5	130.5	Too Close	Over
9:40 PM	NC STATE	72	TEXAS TECH	76	147	-5	146.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:55 PM	SAMFORD	74	KANSAS	74	148	-7.5	152.5	Away Plus	Under
10:05 PM	DRAKE	73	WASHINGTON ST	73	146	1.5	138.0	Too Close	Over

usma1992 · 03-21-24, 10:19 AM

2024-03-22	NORTHWESTERN	74	FLA ATLANTIC	77	152	-2.5	142.5	Too Close	Over
12:40 PM	COLGATE	69	BAYLOR	77	146	-13.5	139.0	Away Plus	Over
1:45 PM	UAB	66	SAN DIEGO ST	76	142	-7	139.0	Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	W KENTUCKY	70	MARQUETTE	81	151	-13.5	158.0	Away Plus	Under
2:45 PM	STETSON	61	CONNECTICUT	85	146	-24.5	144.5	Too Close	Too Close
3:10 PM	NEW MEXICO	77	CLEMSON	72	149	2	151.0	Away Minus	Too Close
4:15 PM	YALE	65	AUBURN	80	145	-13	140.5	Too Close	Over
4:30 PM	COLORADO	78	FLORIDA	81	158	-1.5	159.5	Too Close	Too Close
6:50 PM	TEXAS A&M	71	NEBRASKA	75	146	-1	147.5	Home Minus	Too Close
7:10 PM	VERMONT	67	DUKE	77	144	-11.5	132.5	Too Close	Over
7:25 PM	GRAMBLING	58	PURDUE	86	144	-26.5	140.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:35 PM	COLL OF CHARLESTON	78	ALABAMA	87	165	-9.5	174.0	Too Close	Under
9:20 PM	LONGWOOD	54	HOUSTON	81	135	-24.5	128.0	Too Close	Over
9:40 PM	JAMES MADISON	77	WISCONSIN	72	148	-5.5	145.0	Away Plus	Too Close
9:55 PM	TCU	75	UTAH ST	72	147	3.5	150.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:05 PM	GRAND CANYON	63	ST MARYS-CA	73	135	-5.5	132.5	Home Minus	Too Close

usma1992 · 03-23-24, 05:12 AM

My year long system... has only produced one bet out of 36 games...

JMU + the points. It actually had them winning out right by the numbers. Should I take this as a win? Not the game... obviously my system was dead on that game.

However, only producing one game during March Madness first couple of rounds seems weak.

Dave

Neek762 · 03-23-24, 08:30 AM

How is that surprising? Remember when you were producing low projections on those 100~game days?

jamesrav · 03-23-24, 01:52 PM

how are the non star games doing? There are still quite a few of those. And those are a very good 'side test', since if they only break even (despite a fairly sizeable difference from Vegas), then there's a rather wide +/- 'fuzzy area' where no bets should be made. If they are profitable, you can begin to include them.

If not, then there are genuinely few or no preferred bet (at or around 60% win rate) opportunities ... meaning you'll have to test/add new factors to the model to perhaps draw out more chances. All sharp bettors on YT seem to favor NCAA basketball due to the sheer volume and possible inability of Vegas to maintain good lines day in and day out for all those games.