Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

**EasyCover** · 02-16-24, 12:22 AM

Nice night. Thanks again.

**usma1992** · 02-16-24, 09:08 AM

So I examined the Over on UNC Wilmington... it turns out that of the 7 offensive statistics that I track NC A&T had negative z scores on all of them. I looked at the past over that were predicted and no other game fit that profile... so I added that filter. I know that it is after the fact... but my system... should not be predicting the over if every offensive statistic from one team is negative. As a whole the night was 3-1-1... The only loss was the filtered bet. I am glad I opened it up.

54-33... back over 62%...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81	143	-9.5	135.5	Home Minus	Too Close	0	0
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71	152	6.5	138.0	Too Close	Over	0	0
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79	158	-6	160.0	Away Plus	Too Close	0	0
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72	145	-6	152.5	Away Plus	Too Close	0	0

**usma1992** · 02-16-24, 11:18 AM

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81	143	-9.5	135.5	Home Minus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71	152	6.5	138.0	Too Close	Under U
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79	158	-6	160.0	Away Plus U	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72	145	-6	152.5	Away Plus U	Too Close

Added U for Unfiltered ... and F for filtered bets. Good Luck.

Columbia looks like a reasonable bet.

Dave
THE TEACH

**bubba99** · 02-16-24, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81	143	-9.5	135.5	Home Minus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71	152	6.5	138.0	Too Close	Under U
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79	158	-6	160.0	Away Plus U	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72	145	-6	152.5	Away Plus U	Too Close

Added U for Unfiltered ... and F for filtered bets. Good Luck.

Columbia looks like a reasonable bet.

Dave
THE TEACH

Over in Yale game right?

**jamesrav** · 02-16-24, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81	143	-9.5	135.5	Home Minus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71	152	6.5	138.0	Too Close	Under U
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79	158	-6	160.0	Away Plus U	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72	145	-6	152.5	Away Plus U	Too Close

Added U for Unfiltered ... and F for filtered bets. Good Luck.

Columbia looks like a reasonable bet.

Dave
THE TEACH

your results are holding up well, you can go 20-20 and will still be at 58%. Unquestionably impressive. The unfiltered for close games like Toledo will really test the accuracy, I applaud 'going out on a limb' so to speak and not having a margin for error that eliminates a lot of bets

**EasyCover** · 02-16-24, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by bubba99

Over in Yale game right?

Gotta be over.

**prolexus** · 02-16-24, 01:23 PM

At first the Yale game was OVER (8:08 post)

Now it says UNDER (10:18 post)

Which is it ?????

**bubba99** · 02-16-24, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by EasyCover

Gotta be over.

Yes based on his projections would have to be.

**usma1992** · 02-16-24, 01:33 PM

OVER... yes... must have a print out glitch... Excel has been killing me today. Sorry... glitch fixed...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81	143	-9.5	135.5	Home Minus U	Too Close	0	0
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71	152	6.5	138.0	Too Close	Over U	0	0
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79	158	-6	160.0	Away Plus U	Too Close	0	0
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72	145	-6	152.5	Away Plus U	Too Close	0	0

**usma1992** · 02-16-24, 03:15 PM

Well, at least my error proved that a few are tracking the picks.

Jamesrav... Yeah my percentages are really solid. I still have a minor filter to prevent close matches. For Away + the points it is 6 points. So the 9 o'clock and 10 o'clock games barely make it, but they do make it. I can always adjust it up another few points but then you start eliminating games again.

I have been looking into Action Network also. My buddy uses it to track action. It isn't cheap... $150 for annual membership. I am not going to do it just yet. He did look into Columbia game and PROLINE has the Columbia spread at 15.5 or 16.5. I am at 19. Regardless, it is a game worth looking into.

Dave

**EasyCover** · 02-16-24, 09:09 PM

I got 137.5 on Yale /Penn over. After 1st half didn't think I'd need it.

**RM Logic** · 02-16-24, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by EasyCover

I got 137.5 on Yale /Penn over. After 1st half didn't think I'd need it.

This game should have went way over but at least it was a push at 138.

**RM Logic** · 02-16-24, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Well, at least my error proved that a few are tracking the picks.

Jamesrav... Yeah my percentages are really solid. I still have a minor filter to prevent close matches. For Away + the points it is 6 points. So the 9 o'clock and 10 o'clock games barely make it, but they do make it. I can always adjust it up another few points but then you start eliminating games again.

I have been looking into Action Network also. My buddy uses it to track action. It isn't cheap... $150 for annual membership. I am not going to do it just yet. He did look into Columbia game and PROLINE has the Columbia spread at 15.5 or 16.5. I am at 19. Regardless, it is a game worth looking into.

Dave

Question on a game I thought you would play tonite- St. Peter's -9.5 over Siena. What did your numbers show on this game. You have played against Siena (who is just terrible) alot lately so I figured you might do it again. And they lost by 22.

**usma1992** · 02-17-24, 07:29 AM

RM Logic...

My Home- filter is 8 points... So, if you look at the Siena numbers plus take into account the spread... it just missed being a bet. I am trying to be an unbiased modeler and programmer. What ever the numbers say... they say... If a game is way off I exam... other than that... I leave it alone. Yesterday's games so you can exam.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
6:00 PM	HARVARD	71	CORNELL	81	151	-8.5	156.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MOUNT ST MARYS	75	RIDER	73	148	1.5	146.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	SIENA	57	ST PETERS	72	129	-9.5	125.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	VA COMMONWEALTH	76	SAINT LOUIS	66	142	5	143.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	NIAGARA	71	FAIRFIELD	79	150	-6.5	146.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	VILLANOVA	81	GEORGETOWN	68	148	10	139.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	MANHATTAN	68	IONA	82	149	-13	146.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	CANISIUS	65	MARIST	71	136	-5.5	133.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	DARTMOUTH	62	COLUMBIA	81	143	-9.5	135.5	Home Minus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	YALE	81	PENNSYLVANIA	71	152	6.5	138.0	Too Close	Over U
7:00 PM	BROWN	63	PRINCETON	79	142	-13	141.0	Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	OHIO U	79	TOLEDO	79	158	-6	160.0	Away Plus U	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	73	SAN DIEGO ST	72	145	-6	152.5	Away Plus U	Too Close
7:00 PM	N FLORIDA	79	KENNESAW ST	82	162	-2.5	163.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	77	QUEENS U - CHAR	78	155	-2.5	151.5	Too Close	Too Close

**usma1992** · 02-17-24, 07:44 AM

2-1-1 Last night... I won one by .5 which is crazy because Columbia was killing them the whole time and gave their edge back at home. The Yale game pissed me off... they scored 75 in the first half and really didn't shoot well.

They pushed at 138... Maybe with my computer glitch yesterday... when a few questioned is it over or under... my computer apparently knew is was the exact number. This should have gone over... I doubled this bet. Got a push.

Dave
THE TEACH

**usma1992** · 02-17-24, 08:09 AM

Today's games.... weird day...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:00 PM	IUPU-FT WAYNE	87	DETROIT	63	150	9	148.0	Away Minus U	Too Close
1:00 PM	TEXAS	60	HOUSTON	78	137	-10	131.0	Home Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	AKRON	85	BUFFALO	62	148	13.5	140.5	Away Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	BYU	83	OKLAHOMA ST	67	149	6	152.0	Away Minus U	Too Close
2:15 PM	WISCONSIN	76	IOWA	79	155	1	152.5	Home Plus F	Too Close
6:00 PM	BAYLOR	82	W VIRGINIA	67	148	7.00	147.0	Away Minus U	Too Close
6:00 PM	KENTUCKY	73	AUBURN	81	154	-8.00	164.5	Too Close	Under U
6:00 PM	GA SOUTHERN	62	JAMES MADISON	90	152	-19.50	151.5	Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
8:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	73	CS-NORTHRIDGE	75	148	1.00	162.5	Too Close	Under U
1:00 PM	ALBANY	82	MD-BALT COUNTY	79	161	-1.00	175.0	Too Close	Under U
4:00 PM	BETHUNE-COOKMAN	77	ALCORN ST	71	147	-3.00	148.0	Away Plus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	NC CENTRAL	73	HOWARD	70	142	-4.00	142.0	Away Plus U	Too Close

**usma1992** · 02-17-24, 08:31 AM

Here is today's mess of games.... btw...this thread is now the most recently followed. I appreciate those that have taken the time to view.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:00 PM	IUPU-FT WAYNE	87	DETROIT	63	150	9	148.0	Away Minus U	Too Close
1:00 PM	TEXAS	60	HOUSTON	78	137	-10	131.0	Home Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	AKRON	85	BUFFALO	62	148	13.5	140.5	Away Minus U	Too Close
2:00 PM	BYU	83	OKLAHOMA ST	67	149	6	152.0	Away Minus U	Too Close
2:15 PM	WISCONSIN	76	IOWA	79	155	1	152.5	Home Plus F	Too Close
6:00 PM	BAYLOR	82	W VIRGINIA	67	148	7.00	147.0	Away Minus U	Too Close
6:00 PM	KENTUCKY	73	AUBURN	81	154	-8.00	164.5	Too Close	Under U
6:00 PM	GA SOUTHERN	62	JAMES MADISON	90	152	-19.50	151.5	Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
8:00 PM	LONG BEACH ST	73	CS-NORTHRIDGE	75	148	1.00	162.5	Too Close	Under U
1:00 PM	ALBANY	82	MD-BALT COUNTY	79	161	-1.00	175.0	Too Close	Under U
4:00 PM	BETHUNE-COOKMAN	77	ALCORN ST	71	147	-3.00	148.0	Away Plus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	NC CENTRAL	73	HOWARD	70	142	-4.00	142.0	Away Plus U	Too Close

**usma1992** · 02-17-24, 09:48 AM

Sweet

**RM Logic** · 02-17-24, 10:21 PM

7-5 today. Great job again. No one wins every day but you have been really good.
Keep up the great work.

**Neek762** · 02-17-24, 10:59 PM

Today was tough. Got absolutely smoked - bunch of favorites didn't do what they were supposed to

**EasyCover** · 02-17-24, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by RM Logic

7-5 today. Great job again. No one wins every day but you have been really good.
Keep up the great work.

Absolutely. Great job usma1992.

**usma1992** · 02-18-24, 09:29 AM

Hey... I tweaked to eliminate bs games...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2:00 PM	BELMONT	72	IL-CHICAGO	74	147	3	153.5	Home Plus U	Too Close
4:00 PM	MEMPHIS	68	SMU	79	147	-4.5	155.0	Home Minus F	Too Close

**usma1992** · 02-18-24, 04:59 PM

I made minor adjustments to Home +... Glad it is producing winners.

Dave
THE TEACH
OOGDA

**usma1992** · 02-18-24, 05:10 PM

If it is filtered with an F next to it... go with 4.5% of your roll.

Dave
THE TEACH
OOGDA

**EasyCover** · 02-18-24, 07:31 PM

Do you do baseball Dave?

**Neek762** · 02-18-24, 09:03 PM

Curious what qualifies as a "BS game" ?

**usma1992** · 02-18-24, 10:47 PM

Any game I lose of course... LOL... Neek you didn't get smoked because of me... somehow... I was profitable.

Dave

**jamesrav** · 02-19-24, 02:57 AM

Maybe he meant just the spread bets, not O/U. If I checked correctly it went 4 - 5 with 3 no bets due to 'too close'. Necessary to bet everything offered, they're all equally valid.

Doing fundamental analysis modelling can be humbling, individual game results have to be shrugged off when its 'wrong' by a lot - the only thing that matters are the long run results. Memphis/SMU total went 185, Vegas predicted 155, you were lower at 147. Does your model determine the probability of 'what if' totals, meaning what it would have thought the probability of a 185 total would be? Weird things happen ; as long as the expected happens enough and you can determine that better than they set the lines, you're doing something pretty unique.

**usma1992** · 02-19-24, 07:01 AM

At this point... I can't do "what ifs". I am one man crew... working two jobs and donating plasma to make ends meet. I am able to work on the model throughout the day... but it is still tough to find time. If it has an F... bet a little more than usual.

Dave
THE TEACH

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:30 PM	MISS VALLEY ST	54	ALABAMA ST	83	137	-16	129.5	Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
9:00 PM	IOWA ST	59	HOUSTON	75	134	-9.5	127.5	Home Minus F	Too Close

**Neek762** · 02-19-24, 07:01 AM

Yeah I'm playing the spread more often than not. I'm also not tailing these picks exactly, because a lot of the time I'm placing wagers the night before of I see value to be had. There are times where I do have the same games as Dave, so it is nice to see how his numbers compare, but I'm almost always looking at the spread and not the totals. I had 30 wagers in and favorites decided to shit the bed late in games. It continued into Sunday - almost hammered St Johns but decided to keep it a unit. Was feeling good about the wager at the half since they were up huge, and then they had probably the worst second half of any team this whole season. I'm still up for 2024, but Feb is on life support lol

**usma1992** · 02-20-24, 07:35 AM

No games tonight... Lost both yesterday by a point each.

Dave

**Neek762** · 02-20-24, 01:04 PM

Makes sense. There's some bangers today that will most likely be close

**usma1992** · 02-21-24, 12:01 PM

I am a fan of ranked opponents going against each other and the under.

Dave

AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
FLORIDA	77	ALABAMA	86		163	-8	174.0		Too Close	Under U

**Sund** · 02-22-24, 07:55 AM

It was a bad loss !

**usma1992** · 02-22-24, 08:20 AM

There probably is a debate on last night's games and determining whether it was a win or a loss. When you model games as I do, last night's game counts as a win. I know that ultimately you lost money if you bet this game but they didn't hit the over in regulation.

The bet was the right bet... just unlucky. Just like poker ... if you get all your money in as a 95% favorite and someone sucks out on you... that is just part of gambling that happens.

I will post today's games in a bit.

Dave