yeah, when I cracked the numbers the game ML was around -2400 and spread -16 odd.
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Regarding the post by Solobass....great work. Being a numbers guy and believing in systems I give a lot of credit to both CK and Solobass.
But here is something we all need to think about. Lines are different at different books. Just because one book has one set of numbers and another book has another set of numbers doesn't mean a game is a no go at a particular book.
The GAME itself could care less what the numbers are. So what lines would be best to come up with the initial plays. For example:
If College of Charleston is a play at one book because of their numbers then it should be a play for EVERYONE no matter what THEIR book says. Because the outcome of the game is not decided by what book has what. Does that make sense?
I ran into this last Saturday. I think it was last Saturday. At BetUS some of the CK SP's would not have been SP's at BETUS, but I bet them anyway because they were SP's at the book CK uses.
So do you understand my point? If it makes it a play at one book, then it is a play no matter what book you are using, because the game outcome has nothing to do with the book you are using.
God, I hope that makes some sense!Comment -
what does everyone else think?
Solobass said in his post to use opening game spread and money line.Comment -
What your saying makes sense, but in order for that to work, people would have to start saying what book it is a play at. The Cleveland State game became a no play at the Greek book. However, if what your saying holds true, then if Betus still has the numbers right, I would play it all the same.
The question then becomes, which book do you follow? Sharper lines? Squarish lines? You are then added subjectivity to a numbers system are you not?Comment -
Yes, this is what I am talking about. The opening line and spread at what book...the one you use or a consensus type of line?
Again, if Hanger's book says it is a go and my book says no...that does not change the outcome of the game! For example (just an example):
If earlier Cleveland St. met the criteria at one book being -8.5 for the first half but another had the line at -8...that would make it a no play for those using the other book even though the line would be BETTER for the guys with the book that has it at -8!!!
Do you get what I am saying?
I refer back to Saturday when many of us did so well with the CK SP plays, a few of them would NOT have been plays at my book if I had strictly followed the formula, but if they are a play at one book and the line at YOUR book actually is better then it still MUST be a play.Comment -
Interesting stuff! Yeah open game spread and ml is a play at my book bet365, however, I had to check the greek for 1h ml as mine didn't have 1h ml's.
Anyway boys, i'm gonna try get some shut eye as it's past 4.30am here and it was up to 116 degrees F at some stage yesterday. See ya in a few hours.Comment -
DevilDog, I would assume you would have to go off of the best book. Problem is if you shop around long enough, you will find something at your price. Open lines should be pretty close. That being said, with TheGreek usually posting overnights first, I will personally be using their openings for the system plays. I think.Comment -
Yes! That is my point....if one BOOK has it as a play and the line is actually in your favor at the book you use (but it would technically make it a no play) it MUST still be a play.
The same goes for what Devon said. If The Greek has it as a play because they are showing ML's and another book has it as no play because of NO ML's, it would still be a play at the book with NO ML's.
Just because a book has no ML's does not mean the outcome of the game changes.
And.....it would seem that if EVERYTHING else fit the criteria....-15.5 or bigger on the game line, -1800 or larger on the ML for the game, and -8.5 or larger on the half spread then EVEN if the first half did NOT have a ML it would be a play.
After all, 0 divided by whatever number is 0. Well below the 32% threshold!!! LOL.
I am not going to run on here much more but the original point is this...if book A has it as a play under the criteria but book B does not have it as a play under the criteria, BUT book B actually has a softer line that is better for the bet...it should still be a play!
God, I have a headache.Comment -
I really don't think you can just play off of opening lines. While the line change doesn't per se change the result of the game, the line change can be a clue that there is some information out there regarding the game that the opening line does not reflect. For instance, if you look at the Pacers-Bucks game from last night, the opening line clearly did not reflect the fact that Danny Granger was not going to be playing for the Pacers. While the line still closed at roughly the same point that it opened at, there was a tremendous amount of volatility on that line and I think it would be foolish to simply ignore it.Comment -
wofford+6
youngstown+7.5
minn+1
hawai +6
florida atlantic +2.5 for 5 units
virginia tech -1 5 units
north texas -6 for 5 units
official plays update...5 units for all
st. marys +8.5 for 5 unitsComment -
DevilDog-
Agree with everything you just said. Its all about the Opening lines, and the opening spreads! I am tired of thinking. Just made up an excel sheet for myself that will compute for me. LOL, I am lazyComment -
Granted, news/injuries will make a line move, can determine the outcome of the game. Just bouncing ideas back and forth here. For the SPs, it depends right before tip off whether it still counts as a play. So this is a good debate on this system, is it opening lines or game lines?Comment -
Not trying to beat a dead horse here but this is what I am talking about. If a guy sees this thread and then goes later to make the picks and uses the criteria he could EASILY miss out on a number of games.
But ONCE the game is a play, it is a play....no matter what book it was a play at!!! Because the book is different does not make the play a no go, especially when one book actually has the line in YOUR favor but the play is not a play there because it does not meet the strict criteria.
If the first half is a play at one book and you get -8.5 or -9 for the half...well it sure as hell should be a play at YOUR book if you can get -8, even though the -8 would technically not make it a play.
Ok, now I a really done. I just don't want guys to miss out on a really good thing because of some small differences that change the play, BUT NOT THE OUTCOME OF THE GAME!Comment -
I'm thinking that this new idea for 1st half bets is good, but seems like a pain in the ass. Too many factors to worry about. I like the straight up secret play.Comment -
This issue could arise in the straight up secret play as well and that's why I think you can't just look at opening lines. If a game started out with no first half ML and a spread of 9.5 or higher, line movement could lead to a ML being added to the first half and/or the line going below 9.5. Judging from the fact that CK pulled off of Cal vs. Oregon State last week due to line movement irregularities, I'm assuming the originator of the special plays would agree that you can't go simply off of opening lines.Comment -
alright, i am back for a few here. in my opinion the best time to make bets is EAF (early as f%$k) or between 5-7pm eastern standard when the real snaking can have dramatic effects. for me to quantify anything, i had to choose a consistent snapshot to begin my work. when lines move i view it as an error. the error is on the linesmaker (who tries to get 50% on either side) or the betting public (bad capping, bad info or just bad bets) and jaymac can school us all on what to do when the lines move. also, regarding line movement and odds, line movement and other oddities will not change the actual outcome of the contest that is being bet on and please keep that in mind. no player on the floor/ice/court is thinking about the spread, how to cover, etc only (hopefully) winning. the spurs could care less if they did not cover their -6.5 on the road, a W is a W. i will post my plays soon and best of luck tonight!Comment -
Hell if I know....if it were a play three hours ago...would that change the outcome of the game tonight? Nope. Again, that is the point I am trying to make.
If it was play three hours ago it is a play now. If one book has it as a play but another does not...it is still a play!Comment -
DevilDog-
I gotcha, and Solobass respones helps to. The actual line movement will not change the outcome of the game. so I agree DevilDog. A play 3 hours ago is a play now.Comment -
just look at the lines right before the game starts - nuff said.Comment -
confused and never could find what exactly to do. I will just wait to them to be posted.Comment -
yes, i agree with you. the problem i see is that the books will get smart on what we are doing and start throwing up halftime lines with no statistical significance just to filter out high percentage plays for sharp bettors. yes, it can be a pain (trust me, try crunching the numbers to make a viable model) but is the price that must be paid to stay ahead of the books, casinos and the army of people they employ to take our money!Comment -
Lets get the books today
1st play Im taking drake at the crib, Drake -7
2nd play Arkansas little rock against the owls Arkansas little rock -2Comment -
ck, i got your pm with the name but the # is starred out and i got an infraction from srb for talking about sportsbook referrals in pm.Comment -
Cavs VS Magic
The Cav’s are on a mission this year and Lebron is doing whatever he can to win. He plays defense he passes the ball and hustles on every play. He is playing like one of the old school legends think of MJ, Magic or Bird. This kid is phenomenal and if he stays healthy may go down as the best of all time. BronBron and Associates are focused on winning as many games as possible this year and with Brons game winning shot the other night they are starting to fully believe in Bron.
Orlando showed they were not ready for Primetime against the Celts last week and the Cavs have shown that they are for real. Orlando will not be able to shoot a high percentage of 3 pointers against one of the best defenses in the league which opens the door for a Cavs win on the road.
Cavs are getting +4.5 and that is more than enough for the 2nd best team in the eastern conference to cover.
Cavs+4.5
Spurs vs Suns
The Spurs are the kings of close games this year. They play to the level of competition like a big brother plays just hard enough to beat his little brother. When the Spurs are clicking they can beat anyone and the better the competition the better they play. After winning 4 championships with the same core group they are prone to take the game for granted against inferior teams. The Suns come with a lot of hype but they just are not a great team. They have a split personality. One with Shaq and one without Shaq. With Shaq playing well they can dominate teams but without Shaq in the lineup they are actually a better team and play better team basketball. I feel bad for Terry Porter.
This may be a close game but with the Spurs at +2 I will wait for the line to go up or I will buy 1.5 points and take the spurs at +3.5 to cover.
Interesting Stat
Phoenix 6-14 ATS at home this year
Spurs +3.5Comment -
I like wright state, my local has it at 6. looks like it's on it's way down right now.Comment -
non, take a look at the citadel, and tell me why we shouldn't take them? 9-1 ATS in conference play. 5-0 ATS last 5 games. vs a weak looking elon that is 0-8 ATS road games. (this game is at citadel)Comment -
nmComment -
lambogb, I think if you have any questions about Khaliagent's picks, you can check out his thread "sharp plays" I think it explains everything.
HAHA.Comment
