CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Thursday 1/29/09

[khaliagent]

[/YOUTUBE]youngstown is the play shoe....

you better listen to me fellas....should been on 100 unit orlando play

[nonsense48]

shoe, so far my leans are gonz-8 wright st-7 clev+4 s.a.+1' GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND

[OC]

All over the Wright State pick Nonsense. Those boys have made me some cash this year. And I do like both NBA dogs ... gonna see how the lines play out.

[nonsense48]

get 'em OC good luck

[solobass]

ok, i am only going to post this one time and here goes. here is my writeup regarding the SP analysis and if the criteria can be expanded to include more games without sacrificing the current 82% success rate.

so basically, we all know what the previous criteria are for these games and if not, please take the time to find out somewhere else in CK threads. please excuse my disdain for capital letters.

the premise (all CK's knowledge and idea) is to take games that are potential blowouts and bet the first half as it has a higher percentage of cashing and avoiding the backdoor late cover by the underdog against an inflated line. now, talking strictly men's ncaa bb my criteria for a game with blowout potential is this. opening line -15.5 or higher, and most importantly an opening ML of -1800. the 1st H must be at least -8.5. if any of these fall below the criteria it falls outside of the model i have been working on and you are on your own there. the biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%. if it passes this criteria than you have a play. if it is under 32% that is the threshold for statistical relevancy as related to our current SP knowledge what is the success rate? the answer is two fold. this play (remember only in ncaa bb) has historical data success rate of 70%. the other component is this. we are talking about potential blowout games and in nearly every case if the underdog does cover the 1st half resulting in a loss, the favored team covers the 2nd half at such a high percentage that posting the number here might make heads explode. using this system yesterday you would (i did) have gone 5-2 (.714, slightly lower than the 82% of the pure SP) but 2nd half plays were 100% (florida and louisville) for those not covering in the first half. so on the night out of 9 halves of ncaa bb the success rate would be 78% and the 2nd half plays affords you to make back money plus vig to ensure a positive result all the way around. yes, occasionally you will lose both halves but the percentages are in your favor.

conclusion: there are games out there that can be included that cash at a very high rate of success. my next mission is to combine all of these numbers someway and use them to create a "blowout potential index" that will give us a better look at the probability of success and a tool for ranking games to ensure best selection. the initial play (1st H) has a lower success rate (70% vs the current 82%) of the current secret play formula, but the opportunity to play the 2nd half makes the prescribed method above affords you the luxury of making your money back, or doubling down and making your initial profit. the 2 half strategy success rate in relation to the discussion here has a winning percentage comparable to the pure secret play.

use this information at your own discretion and always remember my quote (see quote)!

[johnnyP]

ok, i am only going to post this one time and here goes. here is my writeup regarding the SP analysis and if the criteria can be expanded to include more games without sacrificing the current 82% success rate.

so basically, we all know what the previous criteria are for these games and if not, please take the time to find out somewhere else in CK threads. please excuse my disdain for capital letters.

the premise (all CK's knowledge and idea) is to take games that are potential blowouts and bet the first half as it has a higher percentage of cashing and avoiding the backdoor late cover by the underdog against an inflated line. now, talking strictly men's ncaa bb my criteria for a game with blowout potential is this. opening line -15.5 or higher, and most importantly an opening ML of -1800. the 1st H must be at least -8.5. if any of these fall below the criteria it falls outside of the model i have been working on and you are on your own there. the biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%. if it passes this criteria than you have a play. if it is under 32% that is the threshold for statistical relevancy as related to our current SP knowledge what is the success rate? the answer is two fold. this play (remember only in ncaa bb) has historical data success rate of 70%. the other component is this. we are talking about potential blowout games and in nearly every case if the underdog does cover the 1st half resulting in a loss, the favored team covers the 2nd half at such a high percentage that posting the number here might make heads explode. using this system yesterday you would (i did) have gone 5-2 (.714, slightly lower than the 82% of the pure SP) but 2nd half plays were 100% (florida and louisville) for those not covering in the first half. so on the night out of 9 halves of ncaa bb the success rate would be 78% and the 2nd half plays affords you to make back money plus vig to ensure a positive result all the way around. yes, occasionally you will lose both halves but the percentages are in your favor.

conclusion: there are games out there that can be included that cash at a very high rate of success. my next mission is to combine all of these numbers someway and use them to create a "blowout potential index" that will give us a better look at the probability of success and a tool for ranking games to ensure best selection. the initial play (1st H) has a lower success rate (70% vs the current 82%) of the current secret play formula, but the opportunity to play the 2nd half makes the prescribed method above affords you the luxury of making your money back, or doubling down and making your initial profit. the 2 half strategy success rate in relation to the discussion here has a winning percentage comparable to the pure secret play.

use this information at your own discretion and always remember my quote (see quote)!

Amazing and Brilliant! Brilliant I say BRILLIANT!

This is awesome!

[50lipa]

solobass you made an amazing write up, but i do have one question, did you, or do you, suggest that for the failed first half covers we martingale it on the 2nd half because of its high % of success?

edit: i missed something the first time, got it now, amazing!

[solobass]

thanks for the compliments everyone, i have been balls deep in this for a few days now and 2 years of historical data is no joke! much love goes to CK for bringing this to our attention and now it is time to get paid! i made enough last night to buy my wife the mini cooper she wants SU, and that will pay dividends for years to come (bowchickadowwow). CK, you definitely have something coming your way around tournament time.

definitely what helped was usually i do a test week or two with no money when i am trying something new, but the added pressure with money on the games was what i needed to get the numbers right (nobody likes to lose) and might continue that practice. i will post tracking/trending data somewhere on a semi-regular basis as well.

[woodyman]

great post solobass!

[zackattack]

solobass.........when you say moneyline of -1800.........would a team without a moneyline still fit the criteria?

forget it, i see now that you have to divide the halves, so you need a moneyline.

[zackattack]

solobass,
i see you used data as far back as 2 years....can you tell me where you can view lines for games that were played that far back?

[Dexter]

ck - yesterday you mentioned rutgers as a pick, but today they are plus 7.5. did you see an off line or something?

[Dexter]

ck, the cavs getting points ALWAYS looks good, but not when they are playing a more complete Magic team at home.

you think the magic are more complete than cleav? i dunno about that - the cavs are the better defensive team, and obviously have the best player on the floor. mo williams is an underrated pg, and they have good depth as well.

[Dexter]

1/29-

more of an instinct play here than anything - i'm going to side with the better defensive team, and play the cavs plus my projected line of 3.5.

-cavs
_________________
the suns finally get back home after an up and down 6 game east coast trip. spurs have won 3 of 5 su in phx, and should be catching about 4 here.

-spurs (big)

[nonsense48]

DEX, i'm going with both dogs in nba today so i'm with ya buddy

[nonsense48]

couple of decent cbb plays but you're not interested are you?

[nonsense48]

DEX, wright st-7 virg.tech-1 and gonzaga-8 get 'em my friend

[ploben]

CK, quick ?

These secret plays...it has to do with 1H lines for CBB without a ML. Do you see 1H MLs for CBB on your book?

Bookmaker has no MLs on any 1H CBB lines.

[akharlip]

i think gonzaga loses outright to st mary's tomorrow
just a hunch good be wrong

[Dexter]

thx non - i'll keep an eye on those.

yeah, i like sa and cleav tonight as well...gl

[Dexter]

1/30-

i love the way toronto is rounding into form - the bucks are now in a state of flux without their leading scorer redd for the rest of the year. toronto is 3-1 ats the last 4 at home to the bucks - the 3 su wins came by an avg margin of 22ppg. this is also a revenge angle for the raptors off of a loss at milw earlier in the year.

-raptors (big)
___________________
the bulls have lost their last 4 su in sac, but the kings are in a very tough spot off of a 4 game east coast trip - and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. playing the better team in this spot, as the bulls finally get a win in sac.

-bulls

[peetlui]

Hey CK, or nonsense, or jaymac anyone who's familiar with the "secret plays" criteria, I see Cleveland St. at -16.5 without a money line for the game. Does that make it a "SP" play?

Sorry, but now I AM seeing a money line so please ignore the question.

[ANDYW15]

DOG DAY NBA

I will take San An +1.5 ALL DAY against this current Phoenix squad who are turning the ball over far too often. I look for San An to take full advantage of this. San An have shown this year they can put up points as well so should have no problem against what D the suns play. As Dex also points out spurs have won 3 of 5 su in phx.

I am also leaning on Cavs +4, they need a solid performance after the Queens debacle and I see this game being decided by 2/3 pts at most. Simply put I think Cavs play better D and I look for King James to rise to the show against Dwight Howard as he usually does against his all-star comrades. When the Cavs are given a +4 headstart they will see my $$$

As for NCAA I am not seeing enough discussion yet to help me decide who to take.

edit : Cavs now showing at +4.5 at my book... do I ride this out and see if the line rises further hmmm.

[Dana4U]

Dexter - nice call on Gang Green and the Blazing Boys last night. Gang Green kept is closer than I would have liked towards the end of that game. I got a push on the Raptors. Should have bought a 1/2 point - oh well, at least it wasn't a loss.

Liking the Spurs tonight as well with the Suns coming home!

[Dana4U]

Secret Play Criteria

It's lack of ML for the 1H.

Hey CK, or nonsense, or jaymac anyone who's familiar with the "secret plays" criteria, I see Cleveland St. at -16.5 without a money line for the game. Does that make it a "SP" play?

[Dexter]

Hey CK, or nonsense, or jaymac anyone who's familiar with the "secret plays" criteria, I see Cleveland St. at -16.5 without a money line for the game. Does that make it a "SP" play?

Sorry, but now I AM seeing a money line so please ignore the question.

remember....no money line for the first half

[Dexter]

Dexter - nice call on Gang Green and the Blazing Boys last night. Gang Green kept is closer than I would have liked towards the end of that game. I got a push on the Raptors. Should have bought a 1/2 point - oh well, at least it wasn't a loss.

Liking the Spurs tonight as well with the Suns coming home!

Thx..love the avatar. just have to minimize my sbr when at work with all these hot pics..ha

[peetlui]

It's lack of ML for the 1H.

Thanks Dana. I like your avatar.

[ANDYW15]

DEX, wright st-7 virg.tech-1 and gonzaga-8 get 'em my friend

which is your strongest play Non?

[peetlui]

remember....no money line for the first half

Thanks Dex. Good call on Portland last night. I'm liking the spurs as well. GL.

[lambogb]

i like va tech -1.. also like illinois -1

so the scret plays are:
1) santa clara broncos
2) college of charleston cougars

correct?

[Dexter]

Thanks Dex. Good call on Portland last night. I'm liking the spurs as well. GL.

kinda thought i would be getting more than 1.5. but im done letting vegas get me off a game after my initial lean. i always felt the spurs would take this one outright anyway.

[cocknocker]

ck - yesterday you mentioned rutgers as a pick, but today they are plus 7.5. did you see an off line or something?

I projected the line at a (PK) and I was shocked to see that they were getting 8 points when the line came out. I made my line+8.5 this morning when i saw the line movement went in my favor. I am playing this one BIG in addition to the Special Plays. Solobass has done a wonderful write up for them and he is tweaking the numbers to come up with an additional formula that will ensure even more success with the Secret Plays. Innovation meets with developmental science! I love it. Let's stuff the pockets of our CK Mafia nation! Man you are gonna love the baseball system I came up with!

[cocknocker]

ploben,

Yes, it is strictly a 1st half wager in both college football and college basketball. As crazy as it sounds, it hits even better in the football than the basketball. And now that's scary.

[ANDYW15]

kinda thought i would be getting more than 1.5. but im done letting vegas get me off a game after my initial lean. i always felt the spurs would take this one outright anyway.

gone to +2 now