NCAA Basketball with John Ryan 2012-2013

[alexknyc]

February 16

Dayton -4 WIN
IUPUI +18.5 LOSS
Georgia State +7.5 WIN
Yale -1.5 WIN
CS-Northridge +2 LOSS

Season: 55-58-1 -7.07 units

[John Ryan]

Play on USC as they take on California in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a solid shot at an upset win. In games like this where the sim shows solid projections for the upset, I have found that using a combination bet serves to increase my bottom line profits over the course of the season. In this case, consider making a 7* wager on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-55 ATS for 65% winners since 2006. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points making 4 or less 3 point shots per game on the season. Cal does not shoot well from the perimeter, especially beyond the arc. Cal ranks 333rd attempting just 12.7 3-point shots per game and 334th making an average of just 4.0 3-point shots per game. This will allow USC to pack a 2-3 zone into the box and force Cal into taking perimeter shots. US defense ranks 78th allowing 44.6% shooting from 2 point range. Take the Trojans.

[alexknyc]

February 17

USC +7 LOSS

Season: 55-59-1 -8.17 units

[John Ryan]

Play on the Virginia Cavaliers as they take on the Miami Hurricanes in ACC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by seven or fewer points. I had Clemson as a 25* Titan winner Sunday as they came very close to pulling off the upset against Miami. Still, Miami showed the fortitude and will to just win even in a hostile environment. The public has become greatly enamored with the Hurricanes and this has caused the lines in their games to be significantly inflated. Moreover, coaches are getting more game films to study and prepare game plans that will work very well against Miami. Such was the case with Clemson, who out played Miami, but simply failed to close the deal in the final minute. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 108-66 ATS mark for 62% winners since 2007. Play against a favorite after 9 or more consecutive wins in games played in February. This system under scores, who the public tails streaking teams and forces to inflate the line, thereby giving you an excellent shot at taking the home dog. Further, UVA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Virginia +8

[John Ryan]

Duquesne + 16 over Butler.

[alexknyc]

February 19

Virginia +8 WIN
Duquesne +16 LOSS

Season: 56-60-1 -8.27 units

[John Ryan]

doing everything I can to get over the .500 level heading into March.. which has always been a big money maker.
Play on Morehead State as they take on Murray State in Ohio Valley Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Morehead will win this game. There is no monetary advantage to play the money line given the risk-reward profile so just take the 1 1/2 points. Morehead has a huge advantage on the boards and the confirms this showing a projection that Morehead will have at least four more boards. In past games, Murray State is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. The sim also shows a high probability that Morehead will score 67 to 74 points. In past games, Morehead is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.

[Doeboy22]

On the other side john took murr st fh-1. But good luck

[alexknyc]

February 20

Morehead State +1.5 LOSS

Season: 56-61-1 -9.37 units

[John Ryan]

On the other side john took murr st fh-1. But good luck

you were right, but what a gamne.. Double OT and the loser scored 100 points.

[John Ryan]

Loyola Marymount + 1 1/2 over San Francisco

Troy +5 over LA-Lafayette (double play)

BUY + 8 over St. Mary's

[John Ryan]

double play OVER Princetopn-Columbia 120 1/2

[Doeboy22]

John that is a great play my models reflect a score of 68 to 66 columbia.. My book is not offering a total on this game but gl

[alexknyc]

February 21

Loyola-Marymount +1.5 LOSS
Troy +5 (double) LOSS
BYU +8 WIN

Season: 57-63-1 -11.67 units

[alexknyc]

February 22

Princeton/Columbia OVER 120.5 (double) LOSS

Season: 57-64-1 -13.87 units

[John Ryan]

florida -17

[alexknyc]

February 23

Florida -17 PUSH

Season: 57-64-1 -13.87 units

[John Ryan]

Ryan has the winner of tonight’s huge showdown between Kansas and Iowa State and <b>his research shows that the game will not be close. </b>He always provides you with the factual data showing you why you can unload on this game big. Featured is a perfect 7-0 ATS game situation.

play on Texas Tech as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Red Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 79-37 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2007. Play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points and is an average shooting team making between 42.5 to 45% of their shot attempts and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 45 to 47.5% shooting with the current game taking place after 15+ games. This system reflects how lines get inflated this time of year with the public betting increasingly more on the ranked teams, especially when at home. K-State is tied with Kansas for the Conference lead and public sentiment is that will not have a letdown knowing that any slip will put their conference championship aspirations in great danger. Still, the players know they can beat TT and that they are the superior team. This is a coaches’ nightmare type of game in trying to get the full attention and focus to play TT as if they are Kansas. So, this is just too many points to give TT and I fully expect them cover easily.

[dabeags]

Play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points and is an average shooting team making between 42.5 to 45% of their shot attempts and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 45 to 47.5%

This stat is a little skewed as K-State has already played the best shooting teams in the conference twice, while only playing the worst shooting teams once.

[John Ryan]

This stat is a little skewed as K-State has already played the best shooting teams in the conference twice, while only playing the worst shooting teams once.

Perhasp correct, but it only serves to reinforce the grading produced by the SIM. So, the trend is NOT the reason for the play by itself.

[justwinthisone]

Ryan has the winner of tonight’s huge showdown between Kansas and Iowa State and <b>his research shows that the game will not be close. </b>He always provides you with the factual data showing you why you can unload on this game big. Featured is a perfect 7-0 ATS game situation.

play on Texas Tech as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Red Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 79-37 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2007. Play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points and is an average shooting team making between 42.5 to 45% of their shot attempts and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 45 to 47.5% shooting with the current game taking place after 15+ games. This system reflects how lines get inflated this time of year with the public betting increasingly more on the ranked teams, especially when at home. K-State is tied with Kansas for the Conference lead and public sentiment is that will not have a letdown knowing that any slip will put their conference championship aspirations in great danger. Still, the players know they can beat TT and that they are the superior team. This is a coaches’ nightmare type of game in trying to get the full attention and focus to play TT as if they are Kansas. So, this is just too many points to give TT and I fully expect them cover easily.

so whats the play on the kansas iowa game? i got get the first part of your post talking about how u have the winner.....where is it. why bring it up if your not going to post it

[alexknyc]

February 25

Texas Tech +18.5 LOSS

Season: 57-65-1 -14.97 units

[John Ryan]

ok. Wednesday night. Rice +13 over SMU (Double Play)

Texas A&M +8 over Mississippi

BC + 9 1/2 over Nc State

Miss State +19 over Kentucky.

V-tech +16 1/2 over Miami (Fla)

[alexknyc]

February 27

Rice +13 (double) WIN
Texas A&M +8 LOSS
Boston College +9.5 LOSS
Mississippi State +19 LOSS
Virginia Tech +16.5 LOSS

Season: 58-69-1 -17.37 units

[John Ryan]

Chatanooga +* over Western Carolina
N. Colorado +1 over Eastern Washington
UCSB + 8 1/2 over Hawaii

[alexknyc]

February 28

Tennessee-Chattanooga +8 WIN
Northern Colorado +1 WIN
UCSB +8.5 WIN

Season: 61-69-1 -14.37 units

[John Ryan]

now that was a good night. My premium 25* plays won and I went 3-0 ATS with 15* College Hoops plays.

Friday, I like Harvard + 6 over Princeton

[alexknyc]

March 1

Harvard +6 WIN

Season: 62-69-1 -13.37 units

[John Ryan]

play on George Washington as they take on St. Louis in significant A-10 Conference showdown. The simulator shows a high probability that GW will lose this game by fewer than five points and has an excellent shot at upsetting St. Louis. Given that favorable projection, I like forming a combination wager using a 12* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. Huge edge in rebounding favoring GW adn they are projected to have at least four more boards in this game. In past games, GW is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. STL is just 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. GW ranks 38th in the nation averaging 38.1 boards per game while STL ranks an anemic 261st averaging 32.7 boards per game. STL ranks 311th averaging 7.5 offensive boards per game and GW ranks 66th averaging 23.7 boards per game. GW will minimize STL second chance scoring possessions and this will be a major factor in them winning this game. Take George Washington + 5 1/2

[alexknyc]

March 2

George Washington +5.5 LOSS

Season: 62-70-1 -14.47 units

[John Ryan]

UNDER Michigan-Michigan State 132 1/2

[alexknyc]

March 3

Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 132.5 WIN

Season: 63-70-1 -13.47 units

[John Ryan]

I do like Texas Tech tonight. Is a bit of a reach, but getting +24 is just too many points based on the sim projections

[John Ryan]

Play on Cleveland State as they take on Illinois-Chicago (IC) in the first round of the Horizon League Conference Championship. The simulator shows a high probability that CS, lined currently as a 3 ½ point dog will in this game. Valparaiso is the clear favorite to the3 win this conference tournament and earn the automatic bid. Detroit has a nice squad and is The only team capable of defeating Valpo. There are nine teams in the conference and Alpo and Detroit have earned the double byes. Wright Stat earned a one-game BYE. So, Cleveland State would then play the winner of the 4-seed Green Bay versus 9-seed Milwaukee matchup. Then after those two games, the winner gets the ‘reward’ of playing Valpo in the semifinals. Cleveland Stat has struggled with ball control issues up to the last five games where they had 13 or fewer turnovers in each game. Over Th. Least four games that have averaged 9.5 turnovers per game and this is a dominant reason I like the dog quite a bit in this matchup. IC has had 58 turnovers over their last five games averaging almost 15 turnovers per game. CS has done a far better job rebounding the ball as well. They out rebounded four of Th. Least five opponents while IC has had four of Th. Least five opponents out rebound them. I feel strongly that CS is playing vastly better team basketball entering this matchup. Take Cleveland State.

[John Ryan]

Cleveladn State is 4 1/2 right now. I had written this paragraph earlier today. This makes it nearly a double play opportunity. Public is all over IL-Chicago