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Wow they can't miss here, I felt uneasy about a VTech under as they play no defense, but I tailed. I think this has a chance to hit the original O/U, I shouldve known when the correction was 14 points off the total that the over was the play.Comment -
Not sure I understand what you mean by 14 pt. line correction? O/U was 138 or 138.5 for the game. I questioned myself a bit because I have seen a lot of Va.Tech 2nd halves go over, but the #s jived for an under - of course when both teams are red hot, not much you can do.Comment -
Sorry, I was getting a funky score using fox sports, the time didn't match up to when I actually turned the game on.
Anyway I just meant (checking a site that had it at 139.5 I rounded up) 140 - 54 = 86. Then 86-72 = 14pts, I just meant the correction from the books at half time was putting the total 14 below the original total and it typically seems that a low 70s 2h total with a double digit line correction cashes.
Could you share what your system is by any chance? I'm interested on how it worksComment -
The 1st post of this thread pretty much explains what I do to try to figure out the best edge for these. That's where I start from, it's still a personal decision at the end where you make a choice that makes sense to you.Comment -
1st 10 Minutes: Wagner-LIU Brooklyn Over 36.5 [-125]Comment -
I don't think the math you're using here really equates to much/you're giving the books too much credit. In general, books are going to set the 2nd half totals based on the game totals save for perhaps some extremely low scoring or high scoring where they want to adjust. Books generally do not correct much at the half from what I have seen. Take this Wagner-LIU Brookyln game. Game total was 146 I believe. 1st half total was 68. So the 2nd half total would be 78 ... came out as 78.5 and floated a little up and down right when the number came out.Comment -
Grinded out a 3-2 day. Felt good about that last one for the entire 2nd half going over as well, but thought that 1st ten minutes bet was even better in case things slowed at some point, but it doesn't look like that is happening much. I feel like I'm in a better groove here at the end of the week. Maybe it is just the Negative Nancys not being around, maybe luck just fell more on my side. Whatever it is, positivity really seems to enhance the experience.
Updated Record: 195-159-7 [+17.97]Comment -
Had a few people asking about the whole way I do this again, so let me re-hash it from Post #1 in this thread along with some things I have tweaked as the season has gone along ...
POINTS POSSESSION FORMULA
What I do at half time for the games I look at is calculate the total # of possessions combined from both teams in the 1st half. The formula is as follows:Total Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.475 x Total Free Throw Attempts)
After getting that number, I usually add five to that number to simulate the probable # of 2nd half possessions. The five is to account for extra fouling at the end, etc. If you've got two teams that aren't overly foul prone and you're looking at a half time blowout, definitely make sure to consider that you may not get those extra possessions.
So, now we've got our number to look at and compare to the 2nd half total that is posted. Here's where I go from there ...
#1. How does the probable # of 2nd half possessions compare to the 2nd half total that has been set. This is also a good time to factor in the field goal percentages from the 1st half. Extremely low percentage or extremely high percentages are some times best left alone as they seem much harder to predict how a team might respond in the 2nd half. Of course, you can say that even if a team is shooting near its average - but that's my two cents and I very rarely choose games where both teams have shot terribly.
As for how the # of possessions compares to the total set - you're looking for the best edge. If you're looking for an OVER, you want a game with a high # of expected possessions that likely meets or exceeds the 2nd half total. If you're looking for an UNDER, you want a game that has a low # of expected possessions - but has a higher 2nd half total set. There are exceptions to everything, but this is a good jump off point on gauging which game might be the better play, especially if you're looking at 5-6 games at a time.
#2. Look at the teams average 2nd half points per game. This isn't a fail safe or something I weigh heavily into the overall equation. Just because Team A averages 40 pts per 2nd half, doesn't mean they are going to score 40 points, especially if the pace is slower or the defense is really limiting them. However, this does give you an idea of teams/situations you may want to steer clear of depending on whether you're looking at an OVER or an UNDER.
#3.Always look at FOULS. Even in blowouts, some teams are foul prone to a fault that you definitely need to know if FTs are going to help you if you're looking at an OVER or hurt you if you're looking at an UNDER. This is a great site that I use that shows you how many fouls teams average per game both home/away.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team-stat/fouls-category
*If I have time, I always try to spot the game that I think I may be most interested in and scout out #2 & #3 ahead of the half if I can.
#4. Be weary of 2nd halves where your number of possessions fails really far from the set 2nd half total. I have noticed this especially with the case of UNDERs. For example, if your # of expected 2nd half possessions is say 68 and the scoring/shooting in the 1st half have seen less than a 1:1 ratio, but you still have a total set in the high 70s or even 80s, my advice is to make that game a NO PLAY. There are times when the #s definitely work in your favor, but from my experience the majority of times when you see a double digit different between the expected possessions and the total set ... these are good to avoid. I will say when you see a large different say with the # of possessions being much HIGHER than the 2nd half total, this does not seem to be such a problem. But with UNDERs, I have been stung by quite a few where the 2nd half blows by the total with ease.
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Likely out till the 800 et tips half timeComment -
2.25.13
[2nd Half] Seton Hall-Villanova Over 69.5 [-110]
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Hows that formula treating you>Comment -
Late drought killer tonight. 67.
Updated Record: 195-160-7 [+16.87]Comment -
2.26.13
[2nd Half[ George Mason-Towson Over 71 [-110]
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Nothing to do with a formula, my own play ...
Youngstown State +9.5 [-110]Comment -
Heh. My own pick sucks. Youngstown can't hit the broad side of a barn now.Comment -
Wisconsin Team Total Over 33.5 [-110]Comment -
Florida State-Wake Forest Over 74.5 [-110]Comment -
Ack Four missed FTs from Wisconsin. 33 pts in the 2nd half. Fukkkk.Comment -
Meh. One terrible off-thread pick from me with Youngstown. Shit luck with Wisconsin and flat failure on the last one. Meh. Weekend had been good, but the start of the week not so much. I'm sure stalker will be dropping in.Comment -
Well the pace slowed when FSU started getting up big. If I calculated right, there were only 64 2nd half possessions. Expected # was 75-76. So far less than that, again why there is no perfect way to gauge how halves are going to go.Comment -
Ep no 2h today?Comment -
Been out tonight.
USC-Arizona Over 73Comment -
looking to tail EP36. I love people who have plans with there bets. BOLComment -
Updated Record: 197-163-7 [+15.57]Comment -
2.28.13
[2nd Half] Tennessee State-Morehead State Over 77.5 [-110]
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W.Kentucky-S.Alabama Over 73.5 [-110]Comment -
Good call EPComment -
California-Utah Over 66.5 [-110]Comment -
It's not looking so good unless you better let's hot this ill say a few Extra Prayers!!Comment
