EP36's 2nd Half Formula Plays

EaglesPhan36 · 03-02-13, 11:13 PM

I think Rutgers sucks. Missing layups that could have helped a ton. May have had a shot if they made ANYTHING here down the stretch, but nope. It's going under.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-02-13, 11:16 PM

Not to mention too many missed FTs because these idiots from Rutgers kept right on fouling for us.

339955 · 03-02-13, 11:17 PM

sorry phan that was tough one if it was closer could have seen more fouling at the end. have to be careful with those overs.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-02-13, 11:20 PM

It was fine. Plenty of dumb fouling between the two with 27 something 2nd half fouls. Just poor shooting. Shit happens.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 12:06 PM

Updated Record: 203-170-8 [+13.87]

I think the thing I have seen as this has gone on all season is that selectivity really is the key. I don't think I necessarily did a poor job of it yesterday as I found myself skipping quite a few games that were ones where you could make a case for making a play. Still, there are ones that as half time approached that I know I want to play if the numbers jive and those are the ones that have cashed more than they have not. So I know I have preached selectivity here lately, but I am going to really really test that theory here as the regular season finishes and conference tournaments begin. So you will likely see fewer plays - but I am hoping these are the strongest plays and therefore, the best shots at winning.

This has been a good ride this season, feel like I am learning how to adapt with this formula and hopefully that helps prove worthy of some winning in March.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 12:59 PM

3.3.13
[2nd Half] Loyola-Manhattan Over 62.5 [-110]

16johnnymac · 03-03-13, 01:03 PM

It up to 64 on my book great lock gl Iam staying away after I didn't jump on this early

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 01:08 PM

Total is way off according to the 1st half pace. Doesn't mean it won't slow, but based on the 1st half numbers - the total should have been way higher. I would have played anything under 70.

Overbettor · 03-03-13, 01:16 PM

I went to lock it at 62 and it jumped 1.5 points so i doubled the bet after checking 1st half stats. Does seem way low.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 01:28 PM

This is one that if it loses, it loses - but it makes absolute sense to play. Hopefully we get it.

Overbettor · 03-03-13, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

This is one that if it loses, it loses - but it makes absolute sense to play. Hopefully we get it.

Yep, based strictly on the #'s this was an auto

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 01:52 PM

Wow. Nice stretch - four minutes, six points. Lovely.

Overbettor · 03-03-13, 02:02 PM

We'll get it back later. There's a cpl 2nd halves I'd blind bet today

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 05:58 PM

Trying these team totals out as well with this.

Stanford Over 36.5 [-115]

gdrinkh2o · 03-03-13, 06:03 PM

im usually with you on all your plays, but i find the 2h TT (over) tough when the team is up big. GL to you, hoping we have an opportunity in the NCst game.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 06:09 PM

I check a lot of stats for plays like this. 2nd half averages. Opponent's 2nd half defensive averages. 2nd halves for opponent in blowout situations. Like every thing, may or may not work out.

gdrinkh2o · 03-03-13, 06:21 PM

I know you put the work in, was just my opinion on 2h TT's. 2h started rough but Utah getting back in it should help your cause. Hope it works for you.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 06:51 PM

Georgia Tech-N.C State Over 73.5 [-110]

jamt31 · 03-03-13, 06:57 PM

Do you have an updated record?

OhMyEli · 03-03-13, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Georgia Tech-N.C State Over 73.5 [-110]

I'm going to tail, but having watched the end of the 1st half, NC State slowed down a lot because they werent getting turnovers, and essentially all their points are coming from their two guys inside the arc. Just on a numbers basis you'd think NC state would get you up there and hopefully it stays close to get you 7 or so points in the last minute.

Good luck to us both

JOHNNY DOBBS · 03-03-13, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by jamt31

Do you have an updated record?

204-171-8

OhMyEli · 03-03-13, 07:24 PM

God awful pace to start NCSt 2, 15 points in the first 8 minutes. You essentially need 5 points for the rest of the game to get to that total. Maybe just 4 p/min with overtime but either way things slowed down like I saw at the end of the first half.

I fortunately was too skeptical and typed this out and missed getting this one in so I'll just watch curiously.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by OhMyEli

I'm going to tail, but having watched the end of the 1st half, NC State slowed down a lot because they werent getting turnovers, and essentially all their points are coming from their two guys inside the arc. Just on a numbers basis you'd think NC state would get you up there and hopefully it stays close to get you 7 or so points in the last minute.

Good luck to us both

Pretty much a brick show. Possessions # is okay, but if you can't make shots, not gonna happen.

16johnnymac · 03-03-13, 07:27 PM

Looks like no one his hitting anything we could hope for ot ??
Optimism may work here

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 08:07 PM

Well the # of possessions ended up being right around the predicted number, just another piss poor shooting expedition - especially Ga.Tech. Didn't really have a problem with anything today - #s were good, results just didn't line up other than the Stanford TT.

339955 · 03-03-13, 09:53 PM

what numbers were you guys looking at for loyola over? i looked at some numbers too and didnt like the over in loyola, were we looking at different numbers??

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-13, 10:17 PM

Half time there was somewhere in the mid 70s possessions I believe. Game was at 74 pts at the half. It was above both teams pace, but the 2nd half was well below both teams pace - like terribly. Guess it evened out as far as the full game, but I'd take an over just about any time I see numbers like this where the total is lower and the shooting wasn't "lights out" where you might question the 2nd half scoring.

Again I'm tracking these, but there seems to be a correlation between #s far off the totals being set and the expected number of possessions and not working out as a good play. I've seen this more with unders where the numbers posted in the 2nd half were still really high even though the possessions were expected lower. Seems like anything that is double digits off in this regard is something to seriously consider passing on ... although I have won more than I have lost taking OVERs in this exact situation ... although this might have been one of the bigger disparities in numbers in quite a bit.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-04-13, 08:57 PM

Updated Record: 204-172-8 [+12.67]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-13, 08:00 PM

3.5.13
[2nd Half] Marshall-Southern Miss Over 76 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-13, 09:02 PM

Ill.Chicago-Cleveland State Over 68 [-110]

gdrinkh2o · 03-05-13, 09:26 PM

bleh, missed this one. GL

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-13, 10:03 PM

Unbelievable. Needed one point for a push and two for a win and they get nothing in the last 1:30 or so.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-13, 10:10 PM

Ole Miss TT Over 36 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-13, 10:54 PM

UNLV-Boise State Under 72.5 [-110]

OhMyEli · 03-06-13, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

UNLV-Boise State Under 72.5 [-110]

Brutal, they scored so little in the first 10 minutes of the half. Then after all the fouling its at 72 and they hit a meaningless 3 to send it over. Luckily I was just on UNLV -8.