Viking custom. Burn the body and set it adrift. We all want to burn the bookies. So we're going to do it VIKING STYLE this season - seeking VICTORY!
I'll lay out what I look at for these plays and obviously, your choice as always as to what you want to do with the information. Excited about the start of the season and I'm off from work for the 24-hour marathon on Monday!
POINTS POSSESSION FORMULA
What I do at half time for the games I look at is calculate the total # of possessions combined from both teams in the 1st half. The formula is as follows:Total Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.475 x Total Free Throw Attempts)
After getting that number, I usually add five to that number to simulate the probable # of 2nd half possessions. The five is to account for extra fouling at the end, etc. So, now we've got our number to look at and compare to the 2nd half total that is posted.
If that 2nd half total is well below the # of expected possessions, then the OVER is something to consider.
Likewise, if the 2nd half total is well above the # of possessions, then the UNDER is something to consider.
In both cases, I look at the 1st half total vs. the # of 1st half possessions to see what the point per possession ratio was. For OVERs, you want it to be better than 1:1 or better than a point per possession which would indicate that a lot of points can be scored again. For UNDERs, you want it to be lower than 1:1 which would indicate a lower scoring half could be on tap. In both cases, looking at FTs, tempo (FGAs) and the # of 1st half fouls is something I look at before making a final decision.
The final decision for me is finding the games that have the biggest differences between the 2nd half total and the # of expected possessions. For example, if a 2nd half total is set @ 72 and the # of expected possessions is in the upper 70s with the 1st half points per possession being better than 1:1 ... OVER is a definite try. Vice versa, if a 2nd half total is set @ 80 and the expected # of possessions is in the lower 70s with the 1st half points per possesion being right around 1:1 or less ... UNDER is a try. In other words, just because the points per possession is over 1:1 in a half doesn't mean I will play an over and just because it's under 1:1 doesn't mean I will play an under. I try to look at all this and make a decision, so there is no one set thing that determines a play for me. I attempt to look at some games as they get close to half time that I think are going to be games that feature a good points per possession ratio either favoring the OVER or UNDER to cut down on the # of games I will look at overall. So in the end, it's an overview of all of this and then hoping to make a good choice. Anywho, there you go. My shit laid out on the table for you. Long winded, but I've had people ask what I look at for these in the past - so saving the time. Reference this post and if you have questions as I go along, I'll do my best to answer them in a more simple manner.
See ya this weekend!
I'll lay out what I look at for these plays and obviously, your choice as always as to what you want to do with the information. Excited about the start of the season and I'm off from work for the 24-hour marathon on Monday!
POINTS POSSESSION FORMULA
What I do at half time for the games I look at is calculate the total # of possessions combined from both teams in the 1st half. The formula is as follows:Total Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.475 x Total Free Throw Attempts)
After getting that number, I usually add five to that number to simulate the probable # of 2nd half possessions. The five is to account for extra fouling at the end, etc. So, now we've got our number to look at and compare to the 2nd half total that is posted.
If that 2nd half total is well below the # of expected possessions, then the OVER is something to consider.
Likewise, if the 2nd half total is well above the # of possessions, then the UNDER is something to consider.
In both cases, I look at the 1st half total vs. the # of 1st half possessions to see what the point per possession ratio was. For OVERs, you want it to be better than 1:1 or better than a point per possession which would indicate that a lot of points can be scored again. For UNDERs, you want it to be lower than 1:1 which would indicate a lower scoring half could be on tap. In both cases, looking at FTs, tempo (FGAs) and the # of 1st half fouls is something I look at before making a final decision.
The final decision for me is finding the games that have the biggest differences between the 2nd half total and the # of expected possessions. For example, if a 2nd half total is set @ 72 and the # of expected possessions is in the upper 70s with the 1st half points per possession being better than 1:1 ... OVER is a definite try. Vice versa, if a 2nd half total is set @ 80 and the expected # of possessions is in the lower 70s with the 1st half points per possesion being right around 1:1 or less ... UNDER is a try. In other words, just because the points per possession is over 1:1 in a half doesn't mean I will play an over and just because it's under 1:1 doesn't mean I will play an under. I try to look at all this and make a decision, so there is no one set thing that determines a play for me. I attempt to look at some games as they get close to half time that I think are going to be games that feature a good points per possession ratio either favoring the OVER or UNDER to cut down on the # of games I will look at overall. So in the end, it's an overview of all of this and then hoping to make a good choice. Anywho, there you go. My shit laid out on the table for you. Long winded, but I've had people ask what I look at for these in the past - so saving the time. Reference this post and if you have questions as I go along, I'll do my best to answer them in a more simple manner.
See ya this weekend!
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How 2nd play been treating you so far man?