EP36's 2nd Half Formula Plays

[EaglesPhan36]

Stanford-UCLA Over 77.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 79, 81 pts. 2nd half expected possessions: 84. Shooting is high for UCLA, but a little low for Stanford - so probably fairly indicative of the pt. output overall with some evening out expected. Close game as of now. Fouls could help in the end, although neither is overly foul prone.

[Epope3LV]

I had different calculations but came up with the same narrative of Over. Lol

[PorkChop]

Thoughts on Fresno State - Wyoming OVER 59.5 Fresno up 10, I expect Wyoming to actually win this game, either way they'll make a run, Fresno won't blow them out, potential for fouls at the end either way.

[Epope3LV]

Love it. I expect Wyoming to also come back to win this game. Probably wont cover but will win by 6...

[Epope3LV]

0-1 Creighton over lost by 4 pts lol.

Oh well lets see how this Stanford game works out

[EaglesPhan36]

Stanford-UCLA Over 77.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 79, 81 pts. 2nd half expected possessions: 84. Shooting is high for UCLA, but a little low for Stanford - so probably fairly indicative of the pt. output overall with some evening out expected. Close game as of now. Fouls could help in the end, although neither is overly foul prone.

This one squeaked in. Shooting actually stayed hot for UCLA and Stanford remained pretty ugly, but helped by getting to the FT line.

[EaglesPhan36]

5. E.Washington-S.Utah Over 73.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 75, Pts 70. Expected 2nd half possessions: 80. EWU shooting above its level likely, while S.Utah may be due for better shooting. S.Utah is one of the most foul prone clubs in D1 which already showed in the 1st half & they could be dumb enough to keep fouling even if the game spirals out of control.

[Epope3LV]

Thoughts on Fresno State - Wyoming OVER 59.5 Fresno up 10, I expect Wyoming to actually win this game, either way they'll make a run, Fresno won't blow them out, potential for fouls at the end either way.

Well you got OT need 14 pts might be tough...GL

[EaglesPhan36]

6. Brown-Cornell Over 68.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 72, Pts 69. Expected 2nd half possessions: 77. Neither team shooting a gaudy percentage, so the nearly 1:1 pt. per possession ratio looks like a nice try for the over in the 2nd.

[EaglesPhan36]

This has felt like a good therapy session today.


Since that 1st one that should have been skipped, I think concentrating on the right situations has really paid off so far. Only the hot shooting of the BC-FSU game really went against the grain. Going to keep focused and finish this out for the night.

[EaglesPhan36]

6. Penn-Dartmouth Under 67.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 58, pts 48. 2nd half expected possessions: 63. Neither shooting great, but both only shoot around 40% on the season so improvement in the 2nd may be minimal.

[EaglesPhan36]

6. Brown-Cornell Over 68.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 72, Pts 69. Expected 2nd half possessions: 77. Neither team shooting a gaudy percentage, so the nearly 1:1 pt. per possession ratio looks like a nice try for the over in the 2nd.

Six missed FTs by Cornell in the last :35 or so. Finishes at 66. Think this was a good pick, just bad luck and execution.

[ninja33]

Dartmouth*

[EaglesPhan36]

7. The Citadel-Davidson Under 76 [-110]
This may wind up going over, but the #s don't jive to be this high. 1st half possessions: 58, Pts. 56. Expected possessions 63. 16 point Davidson lead. Fouls probably don't come heavily into play. Davidson already shooting a high percentage, so their 36 pt. output isn't likely to blow much higher than 40 it would appear. Citadel shooting poorly. but they don't score well any way.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dartmouth*

Thanks, crossed my Ivys.

[EaglesPhan36]

6. Penn-Dartmouth Under 67.5 [-110]
1st half possessions: 58, pts 48. 2nd half expected possessions: 63. Neither shooting great, but both only shoot around 40% on the season so improvement in the 2nd may be minimal.

Absolutely ridiculous percentage shot by Penn in the 2nd half. Not sure exactly what it was, but they finished at 56 and I'm pretty sure they were in the high 30s in the 1st half - do the math, they hit something like 70% from the floor. Dartmouth continued to be average, but what are you gonna do when a team hits like this?

[EaglesPhan36]

7. The Citadel-Davidson Under 76 [-110]
This may wind up going over, but the #s don't jive to be this high. 1st half possessions: 58, Pts. 56. Expected possessions 63. 16 point Davidson lead. Fouls probably don't come heavily into play. Davidson already shooting a high percentage, so their 36 pt. output isn't likely to blow much higher than 40 it would appear. Citadel shooting poorly. but they don't score well any way.

Hit.

[EaglesPhan36]

7. S.Illinois-Missouri State Under 66 [-110]

[timmyboy34243]

should these be showing up on twitter????

7. S.Illinois-Missouri State Under 66 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

8. UNLV-SD State Over 73 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Sorry hadn't been putting these on Twitter. Will do it for the peeps.

[EaglesPhan36]

7. S.Illinois-Missouri State Under 66 [-110]

Hit even with 18 points in the last f-ing minute.

[EaglesPhan36]

8. UNLV-SD State Over 73 [-110]

Another one with a dead last 4:00. Seven points. Unless it goes to OT, it's dead.

[texassoljaz]

any plays phan?

[EaglesPhan36]

Nah. That's it. Labeling was off. That was 10 picks tracked today. 5-5. Only the 1st one was a real "miss" as far as one that I don't feel should have been played. The rest, on the five that lost - it was pretty much the variance that has come with all of these. Cold spots fukked overs and a hot stretch fukked unders. So if I left off the one where I felt it was a poor play, 5-4 overall and better luck probably could have cashed at least one of those losses, but that's always the case with something.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tracking more today ...

1. Wisconsin Team Total Over 31.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

2. Iowa-Minnesota Over 71 [-110]

[Overbettor]

I sure hope Minnesota picks it up a bit....

[EaglesPhan36]

3. Delaware-James Madison Over 72.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I have noticed one thing, almost every over tried in the last couple weeks that falls short is consistently shitting the bed in the last 4:00 or so. Another one tonight that had five pts I think in the last 4:00. Just unreal how this is a magnet for those right now. Don't really see anything much in the way of change. In looking at these the last two days, there's just good luck and bad luck like everything. Don't know. You either fight through the bad ones or you let it beat you. I'll jump back in tomorrow, better or worse with ones I am actually playing. You'll either have fade or follow material, one way or the other - so enjoy the ride.

[Rick22]

I'll follow

[tigerw1]

Fade this man ---- you would be up huge the past month!!!!!!!!!!!

[jimm246]

Come on Tiger dont be like that. Dont be a dick

[JOHNNY DOBBS]

JIMMS right, dont be a dick, lean under 72 usc

[EaglesPhan36]

1.18.13 - Updated Record: 124-89-7 [+23.93]

2.15.13: Updated Record: 178-150-7 [+10.87]

As usual, perception is different than reality. 54-61 in the last monthish. Obviously not great, but still being 54% since the start of the season after a sub .500 month shows that the overall sample size shows more success than failure. I don't have any problem with people wanting to fade or follow, hating or loving it. I don't do this for any other reason than it has provided me with some sort of profit over the season and 3/4 that I have done this. If you follow anyone for a short term, you're either going to think they're terrible or incredible. This is for the grind of the long term, not for the short term for me. I don't like losing. I don't want anyone who tails to lose, so I do my best to tweak things as we go and try to keep steady enough that this will finish in the black. That's really my only goal is to have extra coin in my pocket when they cut the nets down at the National Championship game.

I don't deter from anyone expressing their opinions, do watcha wanna do like I said - one way or the other maybe it will work out for ya. As with any thing on SBR/gambling in general, you've got free will ... use it to your advantage.