John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread

[stevex]

JM Traditional System

12/21/2012

V1

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 17-1-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 18-1
Current series pending: 0

V2

Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 7-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 7-1
Current series pending: 0

V3

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 22-1-3
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 26-0
Current series pending: 1

1. Dallas Mavericks A Bet +10.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies (Risking 110 TO WIN 100)
Dallas Mavericks A Bet (with buying 3 points) +13.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies

[J.M. Disciple]

Steve how are you running your labby for JM? I never really see you risk more than 2 units.

[Kev the Brit]

JM Traditional System

12/21/2012

V1

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 17-1-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 18-1
Current series pending: 0

V2

Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 7-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 7-1
Current series pending: 0

V3

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 22-1-3
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 26-0
Current series pending: 1

Steve, I mention this point every year:

V3 by definition incorporates V2 and V1. Also, V2 incorporates V1. Therefore, the true record is as follows:

V1
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 17-1-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 18-1
Current series pending: 0

V2
Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 24-1-2
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 25-2
Current series pending: 0

V3
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 46-2-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 51-2
Current series pending: 1

Everyone who plays V3 also plays V1 and V2, so the above V3 stat accurately reflects their JM system results. The same can be said for V2.

[Wilba]

Kev - I take your point, but I think how Steve presents it is more meaningful. For me, I am interested in seeing how the unique plays for each system compare, and I think if you include V1/2 in V3 records then the 'V3' record is warped from what we are really interested in, which for me is how the V3 only plays compare to the other (historically stronger) versions.

Not debating your point that by definition V3 includes the others etc., but I do think it is much more useful to present the results in terms of plays unique to each system, as Steve is doing currently.

Merry Christmas everyone

[stevex]

"Kev the Dooch"

I don't care what you point out every year and to be honest your stupid comments in this thread are old. You do it year after and year and nobody cares what the hell you say.

Thanks.

[J.M. Disciple]

"Kev the Dooch"

I don't care what you point out every year and to be honest your stupid comments in this thread are old. You do it year after and year and nobody cares what the hell you say.

Thanks.

Responses like this is what starts arguments. You notice how quickly the beef between wallco, limit, and I ended when LImit responded in a professional manner. Lets not get this all started again. He made a valid point and wilba gave him a valid answer. Your response is unessary. As Mama says, "if you dont have anything nice to say, dont say anything at all."

Kev dont worry about even responding to Steve; it will just start 3 more pages of clutter the way everyone tries to argue in here.

[J.M. Disciple]

Won't have access to spread sheet over the weekend so just want to post the upcoming JM plays mostly for myself. Christmas day should be great day for everyone.

12/23: phi
12/25: NYK, Bos, Hou
12/26 Tor, Mia.

Happy Holidays

[Grinder12000]

So now does a Chase work?

LOL. Sorry. I just had too.

I made myself laugh

OK starting on page 1. Post 1.

[thelimit0310]

Was not able to reach a computer until now, but for anyone interested nothing was missed as far as the 7/5 goes today.

The 1-3-5 is without a doubt outperforming the 7/5 thus far in this season, but overall it nets markedly less units. I tested both methods during the creation of 7/5 and in every season I did this the 7/5 won out (I did not do it for every season, however). Just last season the 7/5 earned more than double 1-3-5 did. I'm not trying to argue a point, I just don't want anyone to think that running the 7/5 would be an inferior way to play. This first month and a half has been lackluster, no denying it, let's see what happens by April.

[MARCUS]

Wallco thank-u..we need more home dog C bet$..+1.5 1st 1/2..+3 2nd 1/2..+122 m/l...+2..= 4-0..and tha'piston$...

[ChiLLx]

Was not able to reach a computer until now, but for anyone interested nothing was missed as far as the 7/5 goes today.

The 1-3-5 is without a doubt outperforming the 7/5 thus far in this season, but overall it nets markedly less units. I tested both methods during the creation of 7/5 and in every season I did this the 7/5 won out (I did not do it for every season, however). Just last season the 7/5 earned more than double 1-3-5 did. I'm not trying to argue a point, I just don't want anyone to think that running the 7/5 would be an inferior way to play. This first month and a half has been lackluster, no denying it, let's see what happens by April.

What is the average amount of system losses for 7/5 during a season? 3 C losses and it's only December seems rather high.

[Wallco99]

Was not able to reach a computer until now, but for anyone interested nothing was missed as far as the 7/5 goes today.

The 1-3-5 is without a doubt outperforming the 7/5 thus far in this season, but overall it nets markedly less units. I tested both methods during the creation of 7/5 and in every season I did this the 7/5 won out (I did not do it for every season, however). Just last season the 7/5 earned more than double 1-3-5 did. I'm not trying to argue a point, I just don't want anyone to think that running the 7/5 would be an inferior way to play. This first month and a half has been lackluster, no denying it, let's see what happens by April.

I stand corrected, 7/5 was more effective than 1-3-5 last season. As I said, I wasn't looking to start an argument or an historical comparison, just looking to play the hot hand while it's hot.

[thelimit0310]

What is the average amount of system losses for 7/5 during a season? 3 C losses and it's only December seems rather high.

You'd be surprised, average loss count is ~7 losses a season. The 7/5 is great at loss recovery however; a few seasons would hit 10 losses and still land nicely positive.

[thelimit0310]

I stand corrected, 7/5 was more effective than 1-3-5 last season. As I said, I wasn't looking to start an argument or an historical comparison, just looking to play the hot hand while it's hot.

Of course and I respect that decision, the hand is hot that is for sure.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 27-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +27.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(12/21/12):
#25 Philadelphia (+2½) (C) - Win
#27 Detroit (M/L) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 18-9
(B) 5-4
(C) 4-0
(D) 0-0


Games for (12/22/12):
#28 Cleveland (+8) @ Milwaukee (A) (8:35 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[MARCUS]

You'd be surprised, average loss count is ~7 losses a season. The 7/5 is great at loss recovery however; a few seasons would hit 10 losses and still land nicely positive.

...u crack me up limit.."land nicely positive"...u live in palm beach?

[hagball52]

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[hagball52]

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[thelimit0310]

...u crack me up limit.."land nicely positive"...u live in palm beach?

"Nicely positive" as in 60-70 units positive. Pretty nice right? You are actually pretty close Marcus! I'm in Orlando!

[thelimit0310]

Quick play post today for the 7/5

December 22nd

No Plays

Full updates will resume tomorrow, my apologies

[analyzer]

Thanks thelimit

[Wallco99]

To further expand on last year's data, I combined the 1-3-5 and 7/5, and tested 1-7-5. It seems that the system last season would have done +119.88 units. The 7/5 did +99.98, which in itself is extremely impressive. The total loss for 1-7-5 would be 26.52 units, which is 4.85 units more than the 7/5 (21.67 u). This is more than made up on the A bet wins THIS PARTICULAR SEASON.

Here is how I ran it:
1) Place a 1 unit wager on the JM (A) bet @ -110
2) If it wins, we win 1 unit. If it loses then we see if it qualifies as a 7/5 play. If it does, we play that game for 8.1 units (the loss on A plus 7 units). If it does not qualify, the series is over, and we take a 1.1 unit loss for that series. (I will also test a strategy to see how an A bet only chase for the games that don't qualify for the 7/5 would do. This would be a seperate chase unto itself. But for now, I am conceding the 1.1 units).
3) If we end up playing the B bet as mentioned above, and that bet happens to lose, our C bet wager will be 15.01 units. If that bet loses, we will be down 26.52 units.

It seems costly, but as I said it's only 4.85 units more than a 7/5 loss, and 7.84 more units than traditional JM, where every victory is only 1 unit, meaning you need 19 wins to offset 1 loss.

I have only tested it for last season, if I get time I will go back further. I am still in the process of testing that new system that I started two weeks ago. I have to admit, JMD was right, I shouldn't have mentioned it until I was further along. I honestly thought I would have had it completed by now, but I have been sidetracked by so many other things that the time just hasn't been there recently. But I WILL finish it, and when I do, I will post it.

[njb5572]

It might be best to sideline discussion on the 1-7-5 until you have back-tested that more extensively as well.. Don't take offense, there's just no point in discussing something that has not been fully back-tested yet. While the A bets outperformed limit's 7/5 this past year and half, there is no telling what it has done the 6 years prior. Looking forward to your findings, appreciate your work

[Wallco99]

It might be best to sideline discussion on the 1-7-5 until you have back-tested that more extensively as well.. Don't take offense, there's just no point in discussing something that has not been fully back-tested yet. While the A bets outperformed limit's 7/5 this past year and half, there is no telling what it has done the 6 years prior. Looking forward to your findings, appreciate your work

Exactly, you are right. I guess I was sort of fishing to see if limit knew those A bet results, or maybe someone else did a similar test on previous seasons. Does anyone have a list of ALL Jm plays for the past several seasons. I have this year's and last year's, but for the sake of saving a lot of time, the previous years play sheets would be very helpful with the timing of this test. I don't need all the wins and losses, just the plays for all 3 versions.

[cambertos]

"Kev the Dooch"

I don't care what you point out every year and to be honest your stupid comments in this thread are old. You do it year after and year and nobody cares what the hell you say.

Thanks.

hahaha wack!

[Kev the Brit]

Kev - I take your point, but I think how Steve presents it is more meaningful. For me, I am interested in seeing how the unique plays for each system compare, and I think if you include V1/2 in V3 records then the 'V3' record is warped from what we are really interested in, which for me is how the V3 only plays compare to the other (historically stronger) versions.

Not debating your point that by definition V3 includes the others etc., but I do think it is much more useful to present the results in terms of plays unique to each system, as Steve is doing currently.

Merry Christmas everyone

Hi Wilba, yes, I agree that we need to see how each component version plays out and listing them in Steve's format achieves that requirement. No argument. However, and please correct me if I'm wrong, we also each decide at the outset of the season which version(s) we are going to play: V1 only, V1 and V2 only or V1, V2 and V3 and off we go. I simply suggested that during the season a "howgozit" for the actual way we play the JM systems gives us a true picture of the season's overall performance. Sure, at the end of the season a breakdown of how each component performed can easily be calculated, as kindly provided by Steve, and set aside for future reference. I'm committed to playing all three versions this season and I will not change my mind mid-season in the event that 1 of the component versions goes belly up; particularly if the overall system results remain positive. Thanks for your considered and polite response and Merry Christmas.

Kev

[Wilba]

Kev makes a good contribution to this thread, no need to act like a cumstain Steve. Thanks and merry xmas to you ps preen is good for removing stains

[Wilba]

Fair point Kev, I agree

[J.M. Disciple]

Never thought i would hear wallco say those words "Jmd was right." however even though he said it i am not convinced because of the 3.5 filter that limit implemented to save some seasons from going negative. As i mentioned with the 5-3-1 theory, start with the worse seasons from 20042005 to see if your 1/7/5 works with those seasons.

Good luck

[Wallco99]

Never thought i would hear wallco say those words "Jmd was right." however even though he said it i am not convinced because of the 3.5 filter that limit implemented to save some seasons from going negative. As i mentioned with the 5-3-1 theory, start with the worse seasons from 20042005 to see if your 1/7/5 works with those seasons.

Good luck

I am using that filter as well, and I will always admit when I'm wrong.

[J.M. Disciple]

Wallco,

Just reread your post cause i forgot what you said happens when A-bet loses.

Since you love 1-3-5 my suggestion instead of taking the 1.1 unit loss on A; and we know A-bets a lone are losers from wilba testing, if it does not qualify for 7/5 play it as 1-3-5. That way its not just a 1.1 unit loss.

Start with worse three seasons and compare a 1-7-5 & 1-3-5 combo to 7/5 by itself.

good finding wallco. glad you finally calmed down some....think a lot clearer that way. good luck.

[Wallco99]

Wallco,

Just reread your post cause i forgot what you said happens when A-bet loses.

Since you love 1-3-5 my suggestion instead of taking the 1.1 unit loss on A; and we know A-bets a lone are losers from wilba testing, if it does not qualify for 7/5 play it as 1-3-5. That way its not just a 1.1 unit loss.

Start with worse three seasons and compare a 1-7-5 & 1-3-5 combo to 7/5 by itself.

good finding wallco. glad you finally calmed down some....think a lot clearer that way. good luck.

Not at good idea at all, plus it defeats the whole purpose of what I am trying to achieve.

Last season there were 16 A bets which did not cover ATS but did cover with the 3 1/2 points that the 7/5 strategy calls for. These 16 series would not have continued to Bet 1 in the 7/5 strategy. Had I continued to play these 16 bets via the 1-3-5, as you suggest, the results would be as follows:

B) 9-7
C) 2-5

Net loss -49.40 units

Had I just taken my A bet losses @ -1.1 units, my loss total for A bets would have been -17.6 units. The ones that won outweight these losses greatly, but making up almost 50 units would be tougher.

[MARCUS]

The Key: tThe Bucks : The Bucks have beenThe Key: The Bucks have been great fade material in the second game of a back-to-back. In fact, they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest. They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine to log more than 160 minutes the previous day. It will be tough for Milwaukee to get up for this one against a team it has already defeated twice this season after last night's big win in Boston and with games against the Nets and Heat on deck. Take the points great fade material in the second game of a back-to-back. In fact, they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest. They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine to log more than 160 minutes the previous day. It will be tough for Milwaukee to get up for this one against a team it has already defeated twice this season after last night's big win in Boston and with games against the Nets and Heat on deck. Take the pointsve been great fade material in the second game of a back-to-back. In fact, they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest. They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine to log more than 160 minutes the previous day. It will be tough for Milwaukee to get up for this one against a team it has already defeated twice this season after last night's big win in Boston and with games against the Nets and Heat on deck. Take the point$$$$$$$$$$...thanks Wallco..4-0,cav$$$$..1ST 1/2..2ND 1/2..M/L+360..+8...XMA$$$ EARLY AGAIN.

[J.M. Disciple]

Blind system and short sample size of 28 games doesn't mean much.

@wallco. thanks for the quick 16 game analysis. maybe you will learn a year or two from now to like the labby lol btw if you get all the games from john Morrison system let me know. considering making some graphs so people can see variance and importance of bankroll management.

[MARCUS]

"Nicely positive" as in 60-70 units positive. Pretty nice right? You are actually pretty close Marcus! I'm in Orlando!

...RIGHT..DAMN NICE!!