John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread

[J.M. Disciple]

Many of us here follow muliple systems. Talk to Kev, wilba, steve, myself, wallco, limit etc. I am sure most of us only have 200-300 units in our bankroll for the 3-4 systems we follow at a time. And besides myself with bad bankroll management and personal plays in the past. I do not think any of them went Bust. Just grind it up every season. Should be able to make 200 units a season at least with all systems combined.

Starting Bankroll $100
$300
$900
$2700
$8100.

After 5 years with a 1% unit size you can see a pretty fast profit. Which is why you need to start with more then $100 in your account.

PS
No plays today

[Wallco99]

Many of us here follow muliple systems. Talk to Kev, wilba, steve, myself, wallco, limit etc. I am sure most of us only have 200-300 units in our bankroll for the 3-4 systems we follow at a time. And besides myself with bad bankroll management and personal plays in the past. I do not think any of them went Bust. Just grind it up every season. Should be able to make 200 units a season at least with all systems combined.

Starting Bankroll $100
$300
$900
$2700
$8100.

After 5 years with a 1% unit size you can see a pretty fast profit. Which is why you need to start with more then $100 in your account.

PS
No plays today

Well, I already posted two. So that would be....two.

[MARCUS]

Well, I already posted two. So that would be....two.

...LMAO..all right wallco..same # i got!!..cat'$ get'tha ca$h 2night..s/u w..i bet the un 96.5 1st 1/2..bol

[J.M. Disciple]

Referring to Jm system that has no plays since Steve post plays after or little before game time. A lot of people don't have the spread sheet for whatever reason in post #107.

[J.M. Disciple]

What odds do you use for traditional method buying 3 points? I heard any where from -170 to -200.

I think the 170 was mostly old juice but want my math to be right when i tally my test.

[alexknyc]

BetUS had -170 (left there years ago so it may have changed). 5Dimes is -200.

[jackoffalltrades]

Magic got blown out. Let us hope 12/31 spread reflects that.

[J.M. Disciple]

People keep saying a series loss is 18-20 units, but with -200 juice it should be higher. I think with 3 points bought the profit is being a little more padded than it should be. I am not saying anyone is doing it intentionally just the modern lines should be around -190 or -200. A series loss from -200 should be around -26 units.

A) 2 to win 1
B) 6 to win 3
C) 18 to win 9.

My back test is only around 30% done, but when I finish It will reflect the modern day juice.

[Kev the Brit]

What odds do you use for traditional method buying 3 points?

Bet365 gives me -185 (1.55 decimal), producing a total A/B/C risk of 19.27 units.

[Kev the Brit]

I didn't watch the Bobbies game last night, so I don't know if the team improved at the end to achieve the 3 point loss or if the Hornets got a last second basket to deny us a win ATS. Anyways, hopefully we all got the push and not a loss. S&O lines opened at NOH -2 and steadily improved to:

12/29/2012 10:44 AM EST

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS -3.

And remained -3 until tip-off.
Early bettors might have lost out.

[J.M. Disciple]

I didn't watch the Bobbies game last night, so I don't know if the team improved at the end to achieve the 3 point loss or if the Hornets got a last second basket to deny us a win ATS. Anyways, hopefully we all got the push and not a loss. S&O lines opened at NOH -2 and steadily improved to:

12/29/2012 10:44 AM EST

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS -3.

And remained -3 until tip-off.
Early bettors might have lost out.

I see multiple books that had +3.5 before tip off. I think wallco will go with a push though because of scoresandodds

covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=840692&sport=nb a

http://www.scoresandodds.com/yesterday.html

[J.M. Disciple]

Bet365 gives me -185 (1.55 decimal), producing a total A/B/C risk of 19.27 units.

As long as its above -170 so its closer estimate of actual profit. Maybe I'll use -185 instead of -200 then. If anyone gets better than -185 let me know and I'll use the lowest one available.

[Nino7]

One good argument for doing it is that you should play as many successful systems as you can because it spreads the risk. The problem is how you apportion that risk. My way is to look at the backtesting stats and establish how often, on average, each chasing system loses. Lets say "System 1" loses 20 units once in every 30 wins (10 unit profit every 30 bets). That system therefore requires an absolute minimum BR of 40 units, ensuring that I will always have at least 20 units available to continue playing it after a loss. I then account for the maximum number of series that might be active simultaneously within that system by checking the schedules. Lets say that "System 1" doesn't normally play more than 3 teams at a time. So, to ensure cash availability, I multiply the minimum BR by 3 and arrive at 120 units. I then do the same calc for "System 2" and so on to establish each system's BR requirement. Lets now say that the total BR required by all the systems is 600 units. I divide my actual cash holding available by the total BR requirement of 600 units and the result is my normal maximum dollar target for all the systems. An element of common sense has to be thrown in when a low odds ML bet is on the horizon, which is why I stated the "normal maximum" dollar target. You will see that the maximum dollar target is a very low percentage of the cash holding (1/600th), but it provides for multiple systems, with multiple series, every day using a single BR and a slow but steady trickle feed in the right direction.

Or you can split up your cash holding and have a separate BR for each system. Either way, each dollar target will always be a very small percentage of your total cash holding.

So basically you're saying that its good to play several systems but you gotta decrease your unit size...its like spliting your Br into several small one and play 1 system/Br.
in this case Why not choosing the system that has the best average +units and play it full size?

[Kev the Brit]

So basically you're saying that its good to play several systems but you gotta decrease your unit size...its like spliting your Br into several small one and play 1 system/Br.
in this case Why not choosing the system that has the best average +units and play it full size?

There is no reason why you can't do that and, arguably, you will get the best profits (no lesser profitable systems in play). However, even the best system fails now and then and your cash holding will take a significant hit, depending on your BR:unit size ratio. Most wise people here sensibly suggest a unit size of 1% of the allocated BR. So, if you're playing all 3 JM versions or Chase 110 (not both) you might need to consider 0.5% cash holding per unit to accommodate the multiple simultaneous selections.

[njb5572]

So basically you're saying that its good to play several systems but you gotta decrease your unit size...its like spliting your Br into several small one and play 1 system/Br.
in this case Why not choosing the system that has the best average +units and play it full size?

Look at your BR as your stock portfolio, you wouldn't put all your money into one or even just two stocks. Diversification is key.

One thing that I have learned in doing my own back-testing is how vulnerable these systems are to a potential collapse. Taking Stiffler's NBA chase for example, one team could have a few uncharacteristic losses in a season, and ruin the profitability of that system all-together. Just because the back-tests have shown substantial profit for certain systems in the past it does not mean they will perform the same way in the future. One way to protect yourself against a system collapse is to be investing your BR in more than one system, as the probability of all systems performing poorly is far less likely.

[thelimit0310]

Nino what if that one system under performs for whatever reason? Think of it like a market. It's always better to spread your risk in the market. What your saying is equivalent to just picking the best stock and putting all your money into it, well what if something happens to that stock and it is no longer doing what it is supposed to do? When your investing you should always keep your risk spread, at least that's my opinion.

[thelimit0310]

Look at your BR as your stock portfolio, you wouldn't put all your money into one or even just two stocks. Diversification is key.

Exactly

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 29-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +29.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-4.91 units)

(12/29/12):
#29 Charlotte (+3) (C) - Push
#31 Orlando (M/L) (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 20-11
(B) 5-5
(C) 4-0
(D) 0-0


There are no system plays for (12/30/12):
#29 Resumes (C) on 12/31/12
#31 Resumes (B) on 12/31/12



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[Wallco99]

I didn't watch the Bobbies game last night, so I don't know if the team improved at the end to achieve the 3 point loss or if the Hornets got a last second basket to deny us a win ATS. Anyways, hopefully we all got the push and not a loss. S&O lines opened at NOH -2 and steadily improved to:

12/29/2012 10:44 AM EST

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS -3.

And remained -3 until tip-off.
Early bettors might have lost out.

I had +3 1/2 fortunately. It was 4 for a while but I missed out on that. A win nonetheless. However, system took a push.

[Brundle99]

I had +3 1/2 fortunately. It was 4 for a while but I missed out on that. A win nonetheless. However, system took a push.

Me 2, I had it at +3 1/2, placed bet at 7:02pm and it paid off.

Hope everyone has made some good cash this year.

[MARCUS]

Me 2, I had it at +3 1/2, placed bet at 7:02pm and it paid off.

Hope everyone has made some good cash this year.

...everyone could'a,should'a had +3.5..if u don't have multiple books 2 shop 4 the best line..then ALWAYS
buy off the key # of 3...my 3rd win this week of 1/2 pnt...3 w's by 1 1/2 pnts...u'gotta do it..ALWAY$..bol.

[Wallco99]

...everyone could'a,should'a had +3.5..if u don't have multiple books 2 shop 4 the best line..then ALWAYS
buy off the key # of 3...my 3rd win this week of 1/2 pnt...3 w's by 1 1/2 pnts...u'gotta do it..ALWAY$..bol.

Can you please stop talking in code all the time and abbreviating everything. Your posts are very hard to understand and at times I just give up. Thanks if you can. Not mad at all, just don't know what you're saying half the time.

[Mrscofield25]

...everyone could'a,should'a had +3.5..if u don't have multiple books 2 shop 4 the best line..then ALWAYS
buy off the key # of 3...my 3rd win this week of 1/2 pnt...3 w's by 1 1/2 pnts...u'gotta do it..ALWAY$..bol.

Wish I could shorten my sentences as Marcus can.

[Wallco99]

Wish I could shorten my sentences as Marcus can.

Maybe it's only me then, but I have trouble reading a lot of them.

[Mrscofield25]

Maybe it's only me then, but I have trouble reading a lot of them.

You'll learn it pretty fast if you continue 2 read his posts. You'll never 4get how 2 read it.

[thelimit0310]

his post before that last one was practically in arabic

[MARCUS]

his post before that last one was practically in arabic

...that'wuz arabic...

[J.M. Disciple]

I understood it all. I think it takes more time to type that way than in full sentences.

[knugen]

Happy new year everyone

[Mrscofield25]

Happy new year to all of you!

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 29-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +29.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-4.91 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 20-11
(B) 5-5
(C) 4-0
(D) 0-0


Games for (12/31/12):
#29 Charlotte (+12) @ Chicago (C) (3:05 pm EST)
#31 Miami @ Orlando (**) (B) (5:05 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[Wallco99]

Happy new year to all of you!

Not yet. Same stinking year it was yesterday still. Soon though.

[Mrscofield25]

Not yet. Same stinking year it was yesterday still. Soon though.

You're right. Almost then. Around 9½ hours by me. I hope yours Government will find a solution today, and let's hope for a better future. Peace.

[CrazyCarl]

YI hope yours Government will find a solution today

Ha. Don't hold your breath.

[Mrscofield25]

Ha. Don't hold your breath.

At least we can hope.