Heavy Favorites experiment..$100 to $1,000

Poogs · 02-26-12, 04:17 PM

This is not a good idea.

sintax · 02-26-12, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Poogs

This is not a good idea.

It actually is a very good idea. See the other thread. As long as you don't just blindly pick -400 picks, you'll be fine.

Sport_Fish · 02-26-12, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

There was a thread started by someone that carries the same basic concept, but he hasn't been around for awhile, so I decided to start one. I have started off 4 for 4, but I will restart for the sake of starting this new thread. The rules are simple:

- I start with $100
- Any sport can be used, not just NBA (I do prefer to play NBA plays though)
- I will only place single bets on teams that are in the -350 to -550 range
- I will keep track of all bets, and the total payout from the bet before will be used for the next one(for example, if I bet $100 to win $20, then I will risk $120 on bet number 2)
- I can "bank my money at any time, but I am ultimately trying to convert $100 into $1,000

Everything about this system and your rules is good except that. I think NBA is the worse sport to use this system with. Mainly because your main goal is to avoid upsets and messed up shit happening, and this happens way more in the NBA. It is much easier to find a -400 winner in Tennis or even NCAAB than it is with NBA.

jsmithj88 · 02-26-12, 06:01 PM

jgas · 02-26-12, 06:17 PM

Tough break I had osu to

jcygts6 · 02-26-12, 06:48 PM

lol ur dead already haha

mcduggly · 02-26-12, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by jgas

Tough break I had osu to

I know. They shot 52% from the free throw line. Are you kidding me?

Originally posted by jcygts6

lol ur dead already haha

Yea, tough break. Next attempt!

drfunkmaster · 02-26-12, 08:02 PM

KegKosmo · 02-26-12, 08:44 PM

LMAO good thread

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 11:09 AM

Attempt #2 - Bet #1 :
VMI Keydets over Radford Highlanders -400
$100 to win $25

VMI is at home in this one where they are 12-2. Radford is 1-12 on the road and is 9 games behind VMI in the conference standings. VMI also beat Radford on the road earlier in the season by 5, so they should take care of business at their place tonight.

DeFab146 · 02-27-12, 01:32 PM

The exact same thread is already going and has a pretty good following. Post your plays under that thread so people dont have to go two different places to find the similar information.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1555123-400-experiment-100-1000-ten-plays-p22.html

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by DeFab146

The exact same thread is already going and has a pretty good following. Post your plays under that thread so people dont have to go two different places to find the similar information.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...plays-p22.html

I was already posting in there, that's where I started 4-0, but they started implementing bets like who would win best actress and stuff, and nobody was following my plays since I wasn't the original poster, so I wanted to start my own.

DeFab146 · 02-27-12, 04:11 PM

I am up to $122 and will tail you on the VMI pick. Was looking at that one earlier today and after a little research it seems to be a fairly safe play. BOL!

thebestthereis · 02-27-12, 04:24 PM

If you end up picking any losers this go downhill quick. Key here is never to pick a loser. Good luck!

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by DeFab146

I am up to $122 and will tail you on the VMI pick. Was looking at that one earlier today and after a little research it seems to be a fairly safe play. BOL!

Yea, I looked at it pretty extensively and agree, it should be a good pick for tonight. Hopefully it ends before 9 so I can jump on that Kansas pick at -475. Oklahoma State is without their best player LeBryan Nash for the remainder of the season, so their morale is down and obviously that depleted their talent fairly violently as well. Hopefully we can pick up 2 wins tonight.

DeFab146 · 02-27-12, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

Yea, I looked at it pretty extensively and agree, it should be a good pick for tonight. Hopefully it ends before 9 so I can jump on that Kansas pick at -475. Oklahoma State is without their best player LeBryan Nash for the remainder of the season, so their morale is down and obviously that depleted their talent fairly violently as well. Hopefully we can pick up 2 wins tonight.

Yeah I am gonna lay off the Kansas bet. Don't like teams on the road. Try to avoid upsets and those happen too much on the road. GL though! Hopefully VMI pulls this off!

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 09:10 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #1 : VMI defeats Radford -400 ($100 to win $25) Win
Attempt #2 - Bet #2 : Kansas over Oklahoma State -475 ($125 to win $26.32) Pending

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 09:13 PM

Like I said before, Kansas is obviously one of the most dominate teams in the country, ranked number 4 on the season. They are going up against an Oklahoma State team that has lost their heart and most talented player in LeBryan Nash, leaving them very vulnerable to some big losses. I don't see Oklahoma State having enough fire power to beat the Jayhawks. Risking $125 to win $26.32.

uvarunthetable · 02-27-12, 10:01 PM

Not saying this is a bad idea or anything for fun but all of the analysis in this and the earlier thread seems to be that one team/person (the other guy did a lot of tennis) is much better and should clearly win the game or match or whatever--well duh, they are going off at -500 favorites, obviously they should win and win often. just curious if you are betting these games thinking that the lines are +EV plays or just more that you wana gambool it up? like for example do you think betting kansas at -500 is a positive EV play over the long run?

dudekid · 02-27-12, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by uvarunthetable

Not saying this is a bad idea or anything for fun but all of the analysis in this and the earlier thread seems to be that one team/person (the other guy did a lot of tennis) is much better and should clearly win the game or match or whatever--well duh, they are going off at -500 favorites, obviously they should win and win often. just curious if you are betting these games thinking that the lines are +EV plays or just more that you wana gambool it up? like for example do you think betting kansas at -500 is a positive EV play over the long run?

in this particular case, i do think kansas has value here...they are aiming to clinch the big 12 title, and as mcduggly said, no lebryan nash...i personally dont try these on the road but kansas was a safe play here, extra motivation tonight and just much more talent

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by uvarunthetable

Not saying this is a bad idea or anything for fun but all of the analysis in this and the earlier thread seems to be that one team/person (the other guy did a lot of tennis) is much better and should clearly win the game or match or whatever--well duh, they are going off at -500 favorites, obviously they should win and win often. just curious if you are betting these games thinking that the lines are +EV plays or just more that you wana gambool it up? like for example do you think betting kansas at -500 is a positive EV play over the long run?

No, honestly, I would not have taken Kansas if LeBryan Nash was playing. I don't just take and -400+ bet just because it is that high. I am trying to avoid any upsets, so I look at the games that have -400 favorites, look into them, and pick the ones I think will avoid being upset. Being on the road against an above-average Oklahoma State team with LeBryan Nash at -475 would not have been enough for me to take because of the great risk or being upset. I'm not scrolling through all the college basketball games and randomly choosing teams that just fit the criteria I mentioned in my original post.

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by dudekid

in this particular case, i do think kansas has value here...they are aiming to clinch the big 12 title, and as mcduggly said, no lebryan nash...i personally dont try these on the road but kansas was a safe play here, extra motivation tonight and just much more talent

Great point. I appreciate the input.

uvarunthetable · 02-27-12, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

No, honestly, I would not have taken Kansas if LeBryan Nash was playing. I don't just take and -400+ bet just because it is that high. I am trying to avoid any upsets, so I look at the games that have -400 favorites, look into them, and pick the ones I think will avoid being upset. Being on the road against an above-average Oklahoma State team with LeBryan Nash at -475 would not have been enough for me to take because of the great risk or being upset. I'm not scrolling through all the college basketball games and randomly choosing teams that just fit the criteria I mentioned in my original post.

No definitely, I guess my question is that if you think these plays are +EV why would you use such a bad bankroll management strat? I mean if the money isn't much to you then I totally understand, or if you just wana win a thousand without adhering to solid bankroll management then I understand, just trying to figure out the thinking behind the bets. BOL either way man, hope you win it all

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by uvarunthetable

No definitely, I guess my question is that if you think these plays are +EV why would you use such a bad bankroll management strat? I mean if the money isn't much to you then I totally understand, or if you just wana win a thousand without adhering to solid bankroll management then I understand, just trying to figure out the thinking behind the bets. BOL either way man, hope you win it all

I definitely know this "strategy" isn't good bankroll management. I know it's bad, but $100 isn't my whole bankroll. I tail some guys on here for "regular" plays, as well as make my own, but I think this was an interesting system. If you get 10 in a row correct, you bank $1,000. I am also very not opposed to banking money early to play with pure house money. I just feel like using a smaller portion of my total bankroll to bet on -400 favorites can add-up fairly quickly, especially if winnings rollover.

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 11:16 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #1 : VMI over Radford -400 ($100 to win $25) Win
Attempt #2 - Bet #2 : Kansas over Oklahoma State -475 ($125 to win $26.32) Win

Total: $151.32

I will post the next play either tonight or tomorrow. I'm gonna look into some tennis, and if I don't find anything, I might be doing some more college hoops or NBA in the morning.

tb1984 · 02-27-12, 11:39 PM

Just want to check in your thread.

mcduggly · 02-27-12, 11:53 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #3 :
Denys Molchanov over Liang-Chi Huang -390
$151.32 to win $38.80

Molchanov is ranked around 340 players better than Huang and has a lot better record at 146-89 compared to Huang's 41-48. Molchanov has beaten the 99th ranked player and has either beaten or stayed close in the match to other guys in the 200-300 rank range. Huang is ranked 608 and hasn't beaten a guy under 443 (Molchanov is 267), and has lost to guys ranked 714, 761, 376, 497, and a few unranked opponents this year. He has only beaten 3 unranked guys (only 1 in straight sets) and the 443 ranked guy in three sets. I can't see Molchanov losing this match, so here is play number 3.

jsmithj88 · 02-28-12, 12:43 AM

i have no knowledge of players that are ranked that low
but at first glance, i would have taken go soeda
hes ranked 80 and has beaten top 20 players this year
showed great heart in his comeback vs dodig in davis cup
the dude hes playing ranked 300+

mcduggly · 02-28-12, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by jsmithj88

i have no knowledge of players that are ranked that low
but at first glance, i would have taken go soeda
hes ranked 80 and has beaten top 20 players this year
showed great heart in his comeback vs dodig in davis cup
the dude hes playing ranked 300+

I also looked into that game but the other one intrigued me more and was at a better price. I definitely think Soeda should pull the victory, though. I'm hoping my first one wins so I can try to squeeze that one in and make it my 4th bet (if I'm still awake).

mcduggly · 02-28-12, 12:49 AM

Molchanov has dropped to -350 if anyone is following.

mcduggly · 02-28-12, 05:10 AM

Fukkkkkkkk he's down 4-0 in the third set. This one looks over unless he can overcome a huge deficit. Come on Denys!

mcduggly · 02-28-12, 05:16 AM

4-1!

mcduggly · 02-28-12, 05:18 AM

Fukkk 5-1..he needs to win the next 5. Still in it but very doubtful.

mcduggly · 02-28-12, 05:24 AM

Lost. Mother fukker.