Heavy Favorites experiment..$100 to $1,000

gtboy · 03-05-12, 12:21 AM

good comeback. I did not bet any of the new games, u got a good thing going and i hope u use some better mm to secure some profits. for what it is worth just be careful,i know u know lol. tc

mrgodzilla · 03-05-12, 12:41 AM

good job man!!
Glad you started a second round.
just found your thread.

Chemojewels · 03-05-12, 12:52 AM

I do have a question about all this. How is this attempt 2, this is attempt 5. I understand after certain attempts you changed your strategy..like not betting on UFC, etc. But in what way does that start the whole process over. You ARE attempting it again, just with adjustments..say principle..heavy favorites, but with adjustments. I'm definitely not trying to be a dick, you saying attempt 1, then attempt 2..it makes it sound like this is your first EVER attempt. Then i read through the different posts and see you revert back to attempt 1 after you change a bit of strategy. Unless youre changing the fundamental principle...heavy favorites...its not. You still are banking on the idea that you can turn 100 into 1000 betting on heavy favorites. Its a cool thread. Obviously it caught my attention, but I do think its only fair if you say the exact attempt you are on, and not change after adjusting.

Chemojewels · 03-05-12, 01:00 AM

I wanted to be more specific....You have put $500 in..$100 4 times for the first attempts, and now another $100 for this attempt..So in reality, if you do reach the goal of $1000 on this attempt, its turning $500 into $1000 betting heavy favorites .

FilletMaster · 03-05-12, 01:07 AM

think chemojewels is right... think you are the one that tailed some silly ufc pick and then proceeded next time to bet on the best actress at oscars and lost?? lol...same guy?

anyways GL!

Sport_Fish · 03-05-12, 01:16 AM

Good thing about the system is ull only lose the $100 anytime u lose so not the worse thing in the world to fail an attempt.

Either way, I believe two things to avoid with this system should be AWAY favourites and pretty much most tennis plays. I think you can avoid enough home favourite upsets for u to go on 7-10 winning streaks and cash each attempt. I don't know what your aim for this attempt is but I'm planning to start it with $100 and cash out at $500. I think this way u'd be able to bank enough 'profit' for you to have most of ur plays on house money for future attempts. And once u get that going, ull only need to win 1 or 2 out of every 5 or so attempts to remain profitable.

Chemojewels · 03-05-12, 02:06 AM

You say only $100 at a time...this thread was starting on 2-26-12..a week ago. And already down $500..you may have more money than me, but losing $500 is a pretty rough week. You say cashing out at $500 should be easy? Look through his attempts..$500 was only reached once I believe..so at that rate..you do nothing but break even. I get the idea of this thread..I do. But it's not using REAL numbers/math. Now it can be used as you're suggesting, as a learning tool. Seeing what and whatnot to do. Then trying again. But the numbers need to line up..even if it takes you 10 attempts to finally get it...you still break even. Then you could technically start from attempt 1. Good luck to everyone trying this. Just be honest with yourself...numbers don't lie.

Sport_Fish · 03-05-12, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by Chemojewels

You say only $100 at a time...this thread was starting on 2-26-12..a week ago. And already down $500..you may have more money than me, but losing $500 is a pretty rough week. You say cashing out at $500 should be easy? Look through his attempts..$500 was only reached once I believe..so at that rate..you do nothing but break even. I get the idea of this thread..I do. But it's not using REAL numbers/math. Now it can be used as you're suggesting, as a learning tool. Seeing what and whatnot to do. Then trying again. But the numbers need to line up..even if it takes you 10 attempts to finally get it...you still break even. Then you could technically start from attempt 1. Good luck to everyone trying this. Just be honest with yourself...numbers don't lie.

Well first off, anyone attempting this system realizes ur initial investment should be a unit or two max and an amount u can afford to lose. There is absolutely no reason u can't start this system with $50 and aim for a lower goal than $1,000 or $500. For whoever does this with $100, a loss of $100 does not hurt their roll too much so its not a problem.

Secondly, nobody said this system is profitable long-term (although it very well could be). However, the way to make this system profitable is very possible if you focus on real numbers only, as u mentioned. Assuming a $100 --> $500 goal on each attempt, would mean out of 4 attempts, you need 1 attempt to win to break-even and 2 to be successful.

Each attempt's success would require anywhere between 6-9 wins in a row depending on what lines you're playing. So taking an average of 7 wins to succeed one attempt, would mean u need to put together TWO winning streaks of 7 in a row out of 4 tries. And I think, even without running numbers, you can agree that putting together this run of 7 continuous wins of -400 + favourites is more than achievable >1 out of every 4 attempts.

*edit: you're actually still profitable even if just the 1 attempt out of 4 succeed because:
3 fails = -$300
1 successful = $400 profit so Net amount = +$100

Pherst · 03-05-12, 08:15 AM

G'day again,

Liking the thread so far. Just thought I'd share with you my record this year for betting 'short' priced favourites. I won't go into the details of what or how I run things at my end as I don't want to hijack your thread. For me, doing this is a hobby as I enjoy the challenge of the maths involved - certainly not going to retire off it...

Basically I play 3 main sports, and others when nothing meets my criteria (I won't share the criteria here as it would take a while to explain and I'm constantly reviewing although rarely changing it). I mainly play basketball, tennis, and my favourite, European volleyball.

Results year to date are as such which are exactly in line with my historical testing before I began running it with real cash:

Basketball
W 83 L 19 %Win 81.4%
Tennis
W 83 L 17 %Win 83.0%
Volleyball
W 59 L 11 %Win 84.3%

So far this calendar year I'm up 37.5 units running what I run. I'm telling you, volleyball is the way to go although some leagues are beginning to enter finals so I assume the seasons will be finishing shortly. Many of my losses on volleyball were before I was analysing the matches properly (even though I still know nothing about the sport and have never seen a match). Anyway, enjoying your thread thus far - best of luck with your future plays.

Cheers,

Pherst

FreddDS · 03-05-12, 08:20 AM

I like what I see in this thread mcduggly, I'm jumping aboard! Let's do this!

mcduggly · 03-05-12, 11:15 AM

Haha wow, there's been so much going on in this thread since I went to sleep, but I'll try to answer some questions.

Firstly, whoever said I bet on Best Actress or whatever, I did not. I would never bet on anything other than sports.

Secondly, chemojewels, this is attempt number 5, but the first three I took advice from others on sports/plays I wasn't familiar with. I figured just sticking with NBA and college basketball picks was the way to go for me (even though a lot of people think that makes this harder). So I just started over to clear the slate and stick to those 2 sports. Not sure why that even matters, but I decided to clarify it for you. If you want, I'll change it to attempt number 5.

And to all, I really believe this can be profitable. If I would have banked my $800, I would be up over three times my investment. I would have banked that money without a doubt if I did not say in this thread that I was going to try to get to $1,000, and unfortunately I lost.

mcduggly · 03-05-12, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by FreddDS

I like what I see in this thread mcduggly, I'm jumping aboard! Let's do this!

Alright buddy, I'll post my next play within the next couple minutes.

mcduggly · 03-05-12, 01:08 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #4 :
Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers Total Points Under 199 @ -400
$195.74 to win $48.94

I was comfortable betting this play at the regular 189.5 (what I got it at originally), so I just bought some more points and added some security. I have this game hitting around the 180 mark, so we have about 19 points of value to play with here. In order for this to lose, one of the teams would have to touch 100 points, and I can't see that happening. The Bulls played last night, so their jumpers will be tired and they will be playing at a slower pace than usual, and of course their defense will still be elite against a mediocre Pacers offense.

Best of luck, guys.

mcduggly · 03-05-12, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by Pherst

G'day again,

Liking the thread so far. Just thought I'd share with you my record this year for betting 'short' priced favourites. I won't go into the details of what or how I run things at my end as I don't want to hijack your thread. For me, doing this is a hobby as I enjoy the challenge of the maths involved - certainly not going to retire off it...

Basically I play 3 main sports, and others when nothing meets my criteria (I won't share the criteria here as it would take a while to explain and I'm constantly reviewing although rarely changing it). I mainly play basketball, tennis, and my favourite, European volleyball.

Results year to date are as such which are exactly in line with my historical testing before I began running it with real cash:

Basketball
W 83 L 19 %Win 81.4%
Tennis
W 83 L 17 %Win 83.0%
Volleyball
W 59 L 11 %Win 84.3%

So far this calendar year I'm up 37.5 units running what I run. I'm telling you, volleyball is the way to go although some leagues are beginning to enter finals so I assume the seasons will be finishing shortly. Many of my losses on volleyball were before I was analysing the matches properly (even though I still know nothing about the sport and have never seen a match). Anyway, enjoying your thread thus far - best of luck with your future plays.

Cheers,

Pherst

Sounds good man, if you see any nice volleyball plays, let us know.

Pherst · 03-05-12, 04:09 PM

Apologies - that should be +7.5 units - was late when I wrote this. Anways, will advise on the volleyball...!!

RL75 · 03-05-12, 10:26 PM

Nice win mcduggly, easy cover. I took Bulls -290. Anyone like Denver -400 vs Western Kentucky in 2h? They trail by 3 and were I think 8.5 favs going into game.

RL75 · 03-05-12, 11:33 PM

Crash and burn - I took Denver. 2 free throws with 1 second left did me in. Still sucks. At least I had only started off with $25, and built it up to 90.

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by RL75

Crash and burn - I took Denver. 2 free throws with 1 second left did me in. Still sucks. At least I had only started off with $25, and built it up to 90.

Ah, sucks man. You starting again?

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 01:23 AM

Bet #1 - Vermont over Northwestern - $100 to win $33.33 - WIN
Bet #2 - Davidson over Elon First Half - $133.33 to win $28.07 -WIN
Bet #3 - Denver University over South Alabama - $161.40 to win $34.34 -WIN
Bet #4 - Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers Under 199 - $195.74 to win $48.94 -WIN

As expected, the Bulls kept the Pacers to an extremely low-scoring game at 72 and only scored 92 themselves. I projected the game to be around 180, so I ultimately won both of my bets by fair margins. I will post my next play in the morning.

Let's get 'em tomorrow guys.

RL75 · 03-06-12, 08:06 AM

Yep I'm gonna try again, not $100 but $25 and try to build to $250. What looks good today? UConn over DePaul looks nice, even if it is neutral court. They beat them by 26 a few weeks ago. DePaul is 1-9 their last 10.

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by RL75

Yep I'm gonna try again, not $100 but $25 and try to build to $250. What looks good today? UConn over DePaul looks nice, even if it is neutral court. They beat them by 26 a few weeks ago. DePaul is 1-9 their last 10.

Alright, sounds good. And I'll look into that play and some other ones and let you guys know. I'll post my play shortly.

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 11:11 AM

Attempt #2 - Bet #5 :
Connecticut Huskies over DePaul Blue Demons in First Half @ -310
$244.68 to win $78.93

RL posted a great play, and Connecticut has dominated DePaul this year, and has gone 9-1 against the Blue Demons in the last 10 meetings. Connecticut has also gone 9-1 in the first halves, often winning by double digits against DePaul, so look for them to hopefully continue that trend as well. The Huskies are rejuvenated with their Hall of Fame coach back on the sideline and will continue their dominance over DePaul this afternoon.

Best of luck to all!

Beavis169 · 03-06-12, 11:15 AM

A good thing you got goin on here dude. Thoughts on Celtics tonight?

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by Beavis169

A good thing you got goin on here dude. Thoughts on Celtics tonight?

I don't know man, I wouldn't mess with the Celtics unless they were playing the Bobcats. They're the second most inconsistent team behind the Magic, so it's hard to tell how they'll come out and play. Rondo explodes one game and the next game he'll score 6 points.

FreddDS · 03-06-12, 01:01 PM

That was an easy win, good job mcduggly! Onto the next one!

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 01:09 PM

Bet #1 - Vermont over Northwestern - $100 to win $33.33 - WIN
Bet #2 - Davidson over Elon First Half - $133.33 to win $28.07 -WIN
Bet #3 - Denver University over South Alabama - $161.40 to win $34.34 -WIN
Bet #4 - Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers Under 199 - $195.74 to win $48.94 -WIN
Bet #5 - Connecticut Huskies over DePaul Blue Demons 1st Half - $244.68 to win $78.93 - WIN

Well that was a nice, easy win. We can thank Jeremy Lamb for scoring 17 points in the first half, as well as RL75 for the play. UCONN ended up winning the quarter by 13. I will start looking into the next play for today and will let you guys know soon.

Halfway there.

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 01:39 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #6 :
North Carolina Central over Maryland Eastern Shore in First Half @ -310
$323.61 to win $104.39

I'm going to follow-up a first half play with another one. I bet most people have never heard of either of these teams before, but I have actually watched NC Central play, and they aren't bad at all. With that said, they have won the past 3 meetings (only 4 meetings between these teams), and the past three first halves. They played earlier in the season and NC Central won the first half 43-12, giving me great confidence in this play.

Best of luck gentlemen!

CMBHuy · 03-06-12, 01:48 PM

FreddDS · 03-06-12, 02:00 PM

Thanks for the play, let's do this!

dsk0057 · 03-06-12, 02:04 PM

I am gonna start today with $50. Target is $250. Definitely, will keep posting on my progress. Thanks for starting the thread. Lets do it duggly!!!

brigade125 · 03-06-12, 02:22 PM

on it.. thanks for the pick...

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by FreddDS

Thanks for the play, let's do this!

No problem.

Originally posted by dsk0057

I am gonna start today with $50. Target is $250. Definitely, will keep posting on my progress. Thanks for starting the thread. Lets do it duggly!!!

Good luck!

Originally posted by brigade125

on it.. thanks for the pick...

Not a problem. Good luck.

FreddDS · 03-06-12, 04:49 PM

29-26 end of 1st half. Another winner! Thanks mcduggly!

Ready for your next play!

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 04:50 PM

Bet #1 - Vermont over Northwestern - $100 to win $33.33 - WIN
Bet #2 - Davidson over Elon First Half - $133.33 to win $28.07 -WIN
Bet #3 - Denver University over South Alabama - $161.40 to win $34.34 -WIN
Bet #4 - Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers Under 199 - $195.74 to win $48.94 -WIN
Bet #5 - Connecticut Huskies over DePaul Blue Demons 1st Half - $244.68 to win $78.93 - WIN
Bet #6 - North Carolina Central over Maryland Eastern Shore 1st Half - $323.61 to win $104.39 - WIN

NC Central won the first half, and we win bet #6. I will start looking into the next play, which might be the last one for today.

Next bet will be posted in the next few minutes.

mcduggly · 03-06-12, 05:06 PM

Attempt #2 - Bet #7 :
Dayton Flyers over George Washington Colonials @ -440
$428.00 to win $97.27

This just seemed too good of a bet to not take. I was looking into a couple, but this one was the most logical and intriguing to me, and it's not at a bad price. The Flyers are 13-2 at home compared to george Washington's 2-11 record on the road. Dayton is is also 4 games better in the conference. Dayton is actually one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and I don't think the Colonials have enough offense to keep up with them. Dayton should win this game fairly easily.

Good luck tonight, guys.