Heavy Favorites experiment..$100 to $1,000

[jsmithj88]

Seems like u were looking for plays rather than letting the plays present themselves.

[ugabooga]

Tough start mate but after 8 or 9 attempts myself, i've realised it's very streaky and ultimately you will have a tough run (and good run). The odds don't lie though so avoiding bad spots and banking at the right time, 1000 is very achievable.

[Kalibongo]

Just be careful and don't bet on "very heavy" favorites.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1021388-anyone-like-lakers-ml-1800-a-p2.html

[DeFab146]

Wow well this thread didnt last long. I have been doing something similar, but too many times guys are trying to build the bankroll to quick with multiple bets a day. Seems to me if you take calculated risk and look for value in the ML it can be profitable. The key is to avoid the upset!

[mcduggly]

Wow well this thread didnt last long. I have been doing something similar, but too many times guys are trying to build the bankroll to quick with multiple bets a day. Seems to me if you take calculated risk and look for value in the ML it can be profitable. The key is to avoid the upset!

This thread is not dead. I am currently looking for my next play. Anyone have anything in mind?

[mcduggly]

Attempt #3 - Bet #1 :
Jurgen Melzer over Tim Smyczek -325
$100 to win $30.77

Melzer is the 19th ranked player, and Smyczek is 287th. Melzer's last 7 matches have come against top 100 ranked players and he is 7-0 against them. Overall this year he is 12-3, starting off 0-3 and then currently on a 12-game winning streak. He has not lost a match to anyone ranked worst than 105 (went to three sets), as he has only lost to the 57th and 63rd ranked players.

Smyczek has only played one top 100 player this year and lost. Overall this year he is 7-4, including a loss to an unranked opponent. Random stats include him losing every tiebreak he has encountered this year and is 0-2 against lefties (Melzer is a lefty).

[brigade125]

ouch... lately big favorites have been losing...just best to lay low.. or just start off small.. i lost on my first attemp this morning..but glad i banked before i wagered.. so it was just a small loss.. im at it again.. and its seems.. another big favorite going down.. ivo karlovic.. -425

[Sport_Fish]

Is this the guy Raonic just lost to in the finals a couple days ago? Wow what a disgrace.

[mcduggly]

ouch... lately big favorites have been losing...just best to lay low.. or just start off small.. i lost on my first attemp this morning..but glad i banked before i wagered.. so it was just a small loss.. im at it again.. and its seems.. another big favorite going down.. ivo karlovic.. -425

Is this the guy Raonic just lost to in the finals a couple days ago? Wow what a disgrace.

Yea, this is ridiculous. God doesn't want me to win these haha. I might just stick to NBA and college hoops, I was getting my tennis information from one of my friends and apparently he doesn't know much.

[Sport_Fish]

Yeah I think Tennis is only worth it with this system in the latter parts of a tournament because its more likely the heavy favourites will play to their potential and not play loose like they do in early stages sometimes.

[brigade125]

Del ray beach open...heavy favorites rather surf than play tennis ..bastards!!

[dudekid]

yeah tennis is brutal, i lost my first one since i started my project on j. monaco that bastard at -280...the odds were a bit lower than usual too, should have thought twice...already made 1K with this system though and kept an original 100....so im gonna restart my quest to the next 1000 with wyoming tonight...BOL man keep at it, just be more careful with the tennis picks lol

[mcduggly]

yeah tennis is brutal, i lost my first one since i started my project on j. monaco that bastard at -280...the odds were a bit lower than usual too, should have thought twice...already made 1K with this system though and kept an original 100....so im gonna restart my quest to the next 1000 with wyoming tonight...BOL man keep at it, just be more careful with the tennis picks lol

Yea, I know this system can work if I stay away from tennis (just learned) and stick to NBA and college basketball. But that's good to hear that you are winning. I just do this on the side with money I'm not using on regular bets so it's not a big deal. Good luck, man!

[rapidfire5]

[mcduggly]

Alright, I know this might sound retarded, but I'm going to start over and just do NBA and College basketball picks. No more tennis, UFC, international soccer, or any of that crap. I will attempt this twice, and if I can't get to t least the $500 mark either time, I'm done and this method can go out the window (at least for me).

So, here we go with attempt number 1.

Attempt #1 - Bet #1 :
Ohio State Buckeyes over Northwestern Wildcats @ -325
$100 to win $30.77

The Buckeyes just lost a huge game at home against Wisconsin, and there is going to be a fire burning under them tonight. The two teams played earlier in the year and OSU dominated by a 33-point margin of victory at home. I can't see home court advantage swinging the score 34 points the other way tonight. It also helps that Jared Sullinger absolutely kills the Wildcats because of their lack of size in the paint. If that wasn't enough, Northwestern lost their biggest player to injury, so the man in the middle is giving up over 45 pounds to Sullinger, giving him an even more of an advantage. Sully is averaging 19.3 points and 13.3 rebounds pr game against the Wildcats in his career, and look for that dominance to continue tonight.

Best of luck everyone!

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1:

Bet #1 - Ohio state over Northwestern - $100 to win $30.77 - WIN


As expected, Jared Sullinger dominated this game scoring 22 points and 18 rebounds (11 offensive), and the Bucks close out a close game down the stretch after being up big early. This was a later game, so I'm not able to fit another one in tonight. I will post play number 2 tomorrow.

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1 - Bet #2 :
San Francisco Dons over Portland Pilots @ -445
$130.77 to win $29.39



San Francisco is 12-4 at home and Portland is 1-14 on the road, creating a little advantage there. San Fran played them at home earlier in the year and won by over 30, then beat them on the road a week and a half later. I see the Dons sweeping the season series tonight.

Best of luck, everybody!

[brigade125]

ok im on it

[mcduggly]

ok im on it

[H1Cypher]

McDuggs what if you went on some streaks since the start of the season. 8-1 4-1 3-1 7-1 And somewhere in there was another 2-0 run but then with some losing streaks too. If you were doubling up every -100 to -200 play hitting 2 in a row... then banking and 200 and playing with the 100 you win keeping about 200 in profit each time tucked away. How would that go for you?

[mcduggly]

McDuggs what if you went on some streaks since the start of the season. 8-1 4-1 3-1 7-1 And somewhere in there was another 2-0 run but then with some losing streaks too. If you were doubling up every -100 to -200 play hitting 2 in a row... then banking and 200 and playing with the 100 you win keeping about 200 in profit each time tucked away. How would that go for you?

This paragraph confuses the shit out of me. What are you talking about?

[H1Cypher]

Something I was thinking originally until Uga hit a really nice streak betting 4 different sports to achieve his goal. Even he couldn't sustain it though... it seems much easier to just hit 3 in a row -110. start with 110. Take the 210 you win bet that(2nd time)... then if you win that one. You just go for 3 in a row and if you win that you you've already done what you were trying to do.

Now that you're down 300 for your first 3 attempts you have go on an even longer run. The more attempts you lose the longer your run will have to be on these big favorites.

[mcduggly]

Something I was thinking originally until Uga hit a really nice streak betting 4 different sports to achieve his goal. Even he couldn't sustain it though... it seems much easier to just hit 3 in a row -110. start with 110. Take the 210 you win bet that(2nd time)... then if you win that one. You just go for 3 in a row and if you win that you you've already done what you were trying to do.

Now that you're down 300 for your first 3 attempts you have go on an even longer run. The more attempts you lose the longer your run will have to be on these big favorites.

It's very hard to win three straight -110 bets. Plus with these odds, I am on the heavy favorite side, so I have a better chance of getting 10 of these in a row. Plus I would have to win 4 in a row at -110 to get to $1,000+, not 3.

[mcduggly]

San Francisco up 19 at halftime.

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1:

Bet #1 - Ohio state over Northwestern - $100 to win $30.77 - WIN
Bet #2 - San Francisco over Portland - $130.77 to win $29.39 - WIN


San Francisco led by 19 at half and it never got any closer than that the rest of the game. They ended up winning by 21, but the game was over early in the second half. I will post my next play in the morning.

[dudekid]

nice mcduggly! way to bounce back...i'm up to 3-0 taking Wyoming, the Magic yesterday, and Drake tonight...lets keep winning my man and i agree with you, nba/ncaabb is the way to go much better focus (for me at least)

[BetjeBetje]

Yea, this is ridiculous. God doesn't want me to win these haha. I might just stick to NBA and college hoops, I was getting my tennis information from one of my friends and apparently he doesn't know much.

Well this was also a stupid. Going on a old guy, who has just won a tournament and playing again the week ofter. Older guys need to have more time to recover.

For today we got 2 nice spots for the favorite backer and for the gambling backer.

Favorite: Federer tb. Del Potro. Del Potro is on a good run with winning in France, but he is getting tired playing 3 tournaments in a row, Federer got European odds 0f about 1.30 so take him. He demolished Del Potro allready in Netherland in the final indoor hard court.

Gambler: Murray tb. Djokovic. Watched both the games of them earlier and they aren't super both. Djokovic is even less then playing mediocre. Murray gave him a good battle allready this year @ the Australian Open and was close of taking Djoko down there. Murray is fitter @ the moment and keen of winning here to set an example and showing the world thah the Djoko time should be stopped.

I am going with Federer of course, cause I like playing systems with favourites and wish you all the best of luck today, whatever player yuou choose.

[mcduggly]

Well this was also a stupid. Going on a old guy, who has just won a tournament and playing again the week ofter. Older guys need to have more time to recover.

For today we got 2 nice spots for the favorite backer and for the gambling backer.

Favorite: Federer tb. Del Potro. Del Potro is on a good run with winning in France, but he is getting tired playing 3 tournaments in a row, Federer got European odds 0f about 1.30 so take him. He demolished Del Potro allready in Netherland in the final indoor hard court.

Gambler: Murray tb. Djokovic. Watched both the games of them earlier and they aren't super both. Djokovic is even less then playing mediocre. Murray gave him a good battle allready this year @ the Australian Open and was close of taking Djoko down there. Murray is fitter @ the moment and keen of winning here to set an example and showing the world thah the Djoko time should be stopped.

I am going with Federer of course, cause I like playing systems with favourites and wish you all the best of luck today, whatever player yuou choose.

I think I missed these. I'm in a different time zone than you, so I didn't get this until now. I said I was done with tennis anyways since I'm not knowledgeable on it. Thanks anyways though for your input, I appreciate it. Let us know how Federer does! Good luck.

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1 - Bet #3 :
Chicago Bulls over Cleveland Cavaliers @ -395
$160.16 to win $40.55



The Bulls completely destroyed the Cavs on the road earlier in the year by 39 and have won the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams. In conference play, the Bulls are +10 in scoring differential per game, and the Cavs are a measly -5. I can't see the Bulls letting the Cavs pull off the upset here.

Best of luck everyone!

[rochestertitans]

i did this last month turned 50 into 3000 in 5 days

[mcduggly]

i did this last month turned 50 into 3000 in 5 days

Did you use all -350 or higher favorites?

[mcduggly]

Either a good amount of people are following me or people jumped all over that -395 because it's up to -550 now.

[Sport_Fish]

Pretty solid pick for this system, esp at that price. If Bulls lose to Cavs here, esp without Irving...it'll be beyond disgusting

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1:

Bet #1 - Ohio state over Northwestern - $100 to win $30.77 - WIN
Bet #2 - San Francisco over Portland - $130.77 to win $29.39 - WIN
Bet #3 - Chicago Bulls over Cleveland Cavaliers - $160.16 to win $40.55 - WIN


Chicago ended up dominating the second and third quarters to eventually lead them to a 21-point win in Cleveland. Without Irving playing, this game seemed as much of a lock as any, and I got it at a great price. I will look into today's games and will post bet #4 when I decide. There are a ton of games today, so I may be able to squeeze a few in today.

[Pherst]

Dude have a look at European Volleyball if your book has it. I'm doing very well out of it taking short priced favourites. I know nothing about the sport, but if you do a little research on how teams are traveling, standings, recent history, etc the favourite rarely loses. The favourite must always be playing at home though - dunno why but home-ground advantage seems pretty handy to have in this sport.