-400+ Experiment. $100 to $1000 in ten plays

[mcduggly]

Look into this one Cheick Kongo -290 vs Mark Hunt. Kongo is a solid fighter going up against basically a guy who should be retired. Hunt is a former K1 kickboxer with a 7-7 mma record... only thanks to his 2-0 winning streak recently. He is old and beat up... some people see value in him and the odds are low in my opinion.

I'll start with his most recent win vs Rothwell he looked bad. Fight was at altitude and he likely would have lost if his opponent had worked on his cardio more. If you want a video I'm sure I can find one- you cant torrent whole events quickly if youo have a high speed connection also.

His 2nd win versus Tuscherer was against another low level fighter. Before that he lost to a guy with limited striking, very limited cardio, and an average ground game. Mark Hunt has defeats to 2 former 185 pound fighters in freak show fights and he is a heavyweight. His career has been 'revived' because of these 2 recent wins... and you can take his success to the bank. Barring anything drastic you're money is in safe hands. Mark Hunt is certainly capable of getting the KO but he has not had a KO since 2008. He is a fighter on the slide of his career and I am not exaggerating when I say he is lucky he is not retired. I could write pages about why he won't win this fight versus Kongo. Stylistically a bad match up for Hunt as he is only good in 1 thing and really was never any good in MMA period.

UFC 144 Mark Hunt vs Cheick Kongo Saturday 2/25.
Also his fight against Rothwell- was at altitude... Rothwell would have llikely taken that fight if he wasn't so exhausted. Hunt has a non existant ground game, and at this point in his career I doubt he is a better striker than Kongo. It's a much safer bet than a -400 college basketball team.

Oh and I've been watching Kongo fight since around 2005 and I've seen over 14 Mark Hunt fights. I think I am pretty on point with this call completely.

I would usually not post a pick up here but I feel very strongly about this one.

Here is my NBA thread for some of my documented picks, I try my best to give out winners and I consider MMA to be a very strong point:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...nd-1-a-p6.html

Kongo was at around -450 a couple days ago. Does it scare you that he is now only at -265? That's a huge drop.

[H1Cypher]

Kongo was at around -450 a couple days ago. Does it scare you that he is now only at -265? That's a huge drop.

It does not scare me one bit. Nick Diaz was the big favorite. Look what happened. There was huge movement on Einemo vs Russow- Russow still won.

In MMA it is all opinion based. The huge move just means someone sees alot of value in Hunt. Alot of people think Hunt can pull off the upset.... which is fine by me because those people are dropping Kongo from unbettable to bettable.

Chan Sung Jung huge huge movement for Mark Hominick. I expected Hominick to win but at some point Chan was in the high +200s.... by fight time Chan was at +440... he went from like a high +200(260 or 280) to a +440... what happened? He ko'd Hominick in the first round.

Example of when huge movement is incorrect:
Maia was a larger dog vs Weidman by fight time he much less of a dog until some late Steam on Weidman but that didn't change much.(by the way maia had a cold just days leading up to the fight which would explain his bad performance and late shift towards Weidman).

Example of when steam is correct:
BJ Penn vs Diaz... that line opened with BJ the favorite but closed with Nick as the slight favorite or even. Nick won that fight. That was minor movement.

Rashad Evans opened at -150. I loaded up on that fast... because only a fool would put their money on Davis at anything less than +200. Judging by that fight I was spot on. Rashad closed close to -200. That is one of the few times I wish I had just bet my shirt.... that and Michael Bisping vs Mayhem Miller(Bisping was -160)

Example of when Steam is obviously correct: Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez... this steam is easy to predict though. I mean who saw Sanchez beating Ellenberger?
See steam doesn't exist in MMA. It is one opinion over the other.

I could write alot more on this subject but I'm gonna stop right there. Not gonna edit so I apologize for grammatical errors.

[mcduggly]

It does not scare me one bit. Nick Diaz was the big favorite. Look what happened. There was huge movement on Einemo vs Russow- Russow still won.

In MMA it is all opinion based. The huge move just means someone sees alot of value in Hunt. Alot of people think Hunt can pull off the upset.... which is fine by me because those people are dropping Kongo from unbettable to bettable.

Chan Sung Jung huge huge movement for Mark Hominick. I expected Hominick to win but at some point Chan was in the high +200s.... by fight time Chan was at +440... he went from like a high +200(260 or 280) to a +440... what happened? He ko'd Hominick in the first round.

Example of when huge movement is incorrect:
Maia was a larger dog vs Weidman by fight time he much less of a dog until some late Steam on Weidman but that didn't change much.(by the way maia had a cold just days leading up to the fight which would explain his bad performance and late shift towards Weidman).

Example of when steam is correct:
BJ Penn vs Diaz... that line opened with BJ the favorite but closed with Nick as the slight favorite or even. Nick won that fight. That was minor movement.

Rashad Evans opened at -150. I loaded up on that fast... because only a fool would put their money on Davis at anything less than +200. Judging by that fight I was spot on. Rashad closed close to -200. That is one of the few times I wish I had just bet my shirt.... that and Michael Bisping vs Mayhem Miller(Bisping was -160)

Example of when Steam is obviously correct: Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez... this steam is easy to predict though. I mean who saw Sanchez beating Ellenberger?
See steam doesn't exist in MMA. It is one opinion over the other.

I could write alot more on this subject but I'm gonna stop right there. Not gonna edit so I apologize for grammatical errors.

Alright, then I will add this game to my open parlay because of your info. =) thanks!

[H1Cypher]

Alright, then I will add this game to my open parlay because of your info. =) thanks!

Good luck I hope you win. MMA has a way of making you look like a genius or foolish sometimes. I'm throwing Kongo virtually in every parlay. Last time I did this was with Rashad Evans and Evan Dunham vs Nik Lentz. Gonna play Frankie big straight up and throw Kongo in every parlay so I'm willing to take the risk in my own thinking for this fight.

Here is a link for Benson Henderson vs Anthony Pettis:

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fights/WEC_53_Benson_Henderson_vs_Anthony_Pettis_Part_2_of_2/10015079

A fight Benson lost not too long ago since going 3-0 in his UFC run against 3 of it's top grapplers(Guida, Miller, and Bocek).

I am concerned about Bendos length but Maynard had the same advantage and so did all of Frankie's other opponents.

[jsmithj88]

Field wins Slam Dunk Championship -260 (chase budinger)

this has got to be the bet of the nite
tall white dude winning the dunk contest?????

[PolishSensation]

START $100

Bet #1 Wyoming (-300) vs. Boise State



Wyoming's motivation for this game needs to be sky high. They need to break a 4 game slide. I like this play a lot.

Nice one.

I'm thinking about taking Kongo tonight, but I've had really bad luck with MMA.

[mcduggly]

Guys, I think another good play would be Xavier over Richmond tonight at -395.

[ugabooga]

Whats up fellas, im still alive...just. Been on a 24 hour bender and only just coming back to reality.

Funny story though, i drunk/tilt betted 2k on wozniacki, lost. Drunk bet another 500 on horses, lost. Then hit a 4 leg parlay to square up overnight.... nearly decimated my whole roll within 6 hours lol.

Anyway, still up $600 on this thread but the brain is not in any state to research plays so will tail whatever is up there. Congrats fellas I can see alot of winning in there

[Xerxes]

okay i put some sbr pts on Kongo! lets see what he gots tonight!

[sintax]

Whats up fellas, im still alive...just. Been on a 24 hour bender and only just coming back to reality.

Funny story though, i drunk/tilt betted 2k on wozniacki, lost. Drunk bet another 500 on horses, lost. Then hit a 4 leg parlay to square up overnight.... nearly decimated my whole roll within 6 hours lol.

Anyway, still up $600 on this thread but the brain is not in any state to research plays so will tail whatever is up there. Congrats fellas I can see alot of winning in there

it's all good man, just keep it up and get back on the grind soon. i really appreciate what you do, has made me look and research picks way more and consider alternative ways of betting. on a more ironic note, drunk betted last night a four team parlay in ncaa bb and somehow hit it. life and betting is weird!

[mcduggly]

Whats up fellas, im still alive...just. Been on a 24 hour bender and only just coming back to reality.

Funny story though, i drunk/tilt betted 2k on wozniacki, lost. Drunk bet another 500 on horses, lost. Then hit a 4 leg parlay to square up overnight.... nearly decimated my whole roll within 6 hours lol.

Anyway, still up $600 on this thread but the brain is not in any state to research plays so will tail whatever is up there. Congrats fellas I can see alot of winning in there

Hopefully you took my Xavier bet since it was a great price and ended up being cashed!

[keel44]

START $100

Bet #1 Wyoming (-300) W $133.33
Bet #2 Kongo (-275) Risk $133.33 To Win $48.48

[bmur714]

Let's go Kongo!! Got it at -255 on 5d earlier.

Rollin with Cypher's MMA knowledge on this one

[sintax]

Tailing you Cypher, nice research hope it pays off! BOL to all, put down 75 on him myself. wanted to put more but am a bit more cautious since betting 200 on that tennis match that screwed a few of us haha! thanks for the info!

[bmur714]

Wow...that was a bust

[mcduggly]

Wow...that was a bust

What was a bust?

[bmur714]

Kongo got knocked the Fukk out!!!!!!!!!!

[PolishSensation]

Kongo has a glass jaw. Jesus.

[mcduggly]

I knew I shouldn't have bet on that..thank God I only did $20 and didn't include it in my "streak" of a potential 10 in a row.

[mcduggly]

He got knocked out in 2 minutes...

[Xerxes]

wooow...

[FilletMaster]

personally would not wager on any MMA fight under this experiment.

[keel44]

START $100

Bet #1 Wyoming (-300) W $133.33
Bet #2 Kongo (-275) L -$100 of my original stake


START $100 again

Bet #1 Viola Davis best actress oscars (-220)

[H1Cypher]

Sorry if anyone tailed me I lost 300 on Kongo.

[brigade125]

Uga...del porte 2morrow?...

[jrs362]

I'm leaning towards Ferrer over Almagro at -400 on Sunday afternoon.

Despite Almagro being ranked #11, 16-3 YTD, and the Defending Champion, Ferrer is still 8-0 against him in his career with the last 2 meetings in 2011 ending in straight sets.

I'll admit, I haven't seen Almagro play yet this year. Am I missing something?

[mcduggly]

Sorry if anyone tailed me I lost 300 on Kongo.

I'm pretty sure we all tailed you. Luckily I didn't lay my $370 from this experiment on it and just put down $20.

[kj8210]

From now on im only tailing Keel and Uga

[mcduggly]

I'm liking Ohio State at home over Wisconsin at -475.

[keel44]

Those write ups on Kongo convinced me it was a play. I lost with it, but still, it was my final decision. I should only go with what I am confident in.

Oh, and I am really confident in Viola Davis to win best actress.

[mcduggly]

Those write ups on Kongo convinced me it was a play. I lost with it, but still, it was my final decision. I should only go with what I am confident in.

Oh, and I am really confident in Viola Davis to win best actress.

So is that your starting bet on your next attempt?


And by the way, where the hell is uga? This is his thread after all.

[kj8210]

I'm trusting you here Keel. I usually dont like to bet on anything except the NBA and NFL but lets see where this gets me

[BetjeBetje]

I'm leaning towards Ferrer over Almagro at -400 on Sunday afternoon.

Despite Almagro being ranked #11, 16-3 YTD, and the Defending Champion, Ferrer is still 8-0 against him in his career with the last 2 meetings in 2011 ending in straight sets.

I'll admit, I haven't seen Almagro play yet this year. Am I missing something?

TY for this post, I watched this tournament and saw Almagro two times play. I saw Ferrer only once (against Nalbandian). Especially Almagro was good against Wawrinka and Ferrer against Nalbandian, wich I saw.

Thanks to your stats I wanted to play ferrer, but when I came online he was 1 set behind and 1 break in front of set 2, I took him for 3 units for double money and know he is in front a break in the third.

So this isn't aftertiming, cause it ain't over yet, but just a thanks for your message wich decided to take him blind with the break in front in the second set

TY sir.


@ Ugabooga, waiting for your picks m8, you rock, so bring in some more. Tomorrow new tennis tournaments are going to start again and I saw already a nice bet for tuesday wich you may consider.

Del Potro @ 1.28 (European odds), don't know how you guys calculate it, but probable -372 for you guys????

[keel44]

START $100 again

Bet #1 Viola Davis best actress oscars (-220)

LOSS

I am totally shocked by this. I had some conformation with this bet from other sources as well as my own common sense. A total shocker for me and quite painful. We will have to start again tomorrow.

[sintax]

START $100 again

Bet #1 Viola Davis best actress oscars (-220)

LOSS

I am totally shocked by this. I had some conformation with this bet from other sources as well as my own common sense. A total shocker for me and quite painful. We will have to start again tomorrow.

I don't want to ponder why Streep won, or perpetuate stereotypes/rely on confirmation bias, but the academy i 70% men aged 60 or older I believe. May be some sort of effect where they are more hesitant to vote for a black woman compared to a revered, older, white woman. Just my 2c!