-400+ Experiment. $100 to $1000 in ten plays

[slambam]

Hey man,nice system!
I was following the thread since the beginning,but checking only once every few days,so I got kinda lost.
Help me here.
On how many attempts do you bank?
If you lose then you take 100$ from those you banked and you start again?

What does that mean?



If you have made 4 bets and you haven't banked how do you lose only 100$. Shouldn't you lose what you have made in those 4 bets?

You started with $100 for each attempt, so while you may have lost what you made the first 4 bets, you really only lost the initial $100 that you started with for that attempt.

[Sumalia]

You started with $100 for each attempt, so while you may have lost what you made the first 4 bets, you really only lost the initial $100 that you started with for that attempt.

I see.Thanks for clearing that up.

[ugabooga]

Hey Uga (and others),

What's your opinion on when to bank? Before a play you don't have entire confidence in? Once you reach a certain threshold?

My units are small, and I'd like to turn profit out of this experiment, but I don't want to be banking every couple of plays and not maintaining a high enough rollover amount to actually make something worth banking.

For instance, right now I'm rolling over 6.65 units on my upcoming play tonight. I've essentially made back and banked all the cash I used to start each of my 3 attempts (I like this method since as I've said before, it's like playing with "house money") so I haven't lost anything in the grand scheme. I also haven't banked any additional profit. I know it's basically a personal preference thing, but I'm looking for other opinions since I'm having trouble making up my mind.

Should I bank when I'm at +5 units? +10 units? Let it all ride and see which heavy favorite breaks me?

Yep this is probably the difference between this working for one and not working for another. For me personally, I want to have at least $300 before I start banking (although I may have banked below that once). I'll also bank when the numbers favour a play but my gut feel is a chance of it failing.

Because of the type of favourites we're playing generally the numbers don't lie but there's always an extra edge that we can find by crunching the numbers. The Tomic play was one I liked at $150 but had it been $400 i dare say I wouldn't have made it.

Come on Bartoli!!

Watching the reply literally playing on one leg. Just give up ffs so we get our money back

This is about where you will be each step of the way if you use -500 every play:

1 unit Win
1.2 units Win
1.44 W
1.73 W
2.07 W = a little over 1 unit profit after 4 straight wins
2.48 W
2.99 W
3.58 W
4.3 W
5.16 W
6.19 = 5.19 units profit after 10 straight wins -500 odds every play

This gives you some perspective if you dance around an average of -500 per play.

If you can make a 1 unit profit, I would bank and play with the house money. You could also try 5 attempts at 10 in a row, if you don't get there, then raise your starting unit accordingly so you can still make a profit.

Like it mate, great analysis but rarely do we play odds that low but it does show how it works quite well I like the whole banking the unit and playing with house money which works for those with a limited roll. I started with $1000 or effectively 10 units for this experiment so i was happy to let it ride so to speak.

Hey man,nice system!
I was following the thread since the beginning,but checking only once every few days,so I got kinda lost.
Help me here.
On how many attempts do you bank?
If you lose then you take 100$ from those you banked and you start again?

What does that mean?
If you have made 4 bets and you haven't banked how do you lose only 100$. Shouldn't you lose what you have made in those 4 bets?

As answered by the above I only count profit and loss against the roll when banking and failed attempts but theres probably a few ways you could keep record. I bank on feel but sometimes i let my ego take over which im working on.. all a learning curve really

[ugabooga]

Attempt 1:
Bets: 8
Banked: $476.18
Days: 3

Attempt 2:
Bets: 6
Banked: $319.12
Days: 4

Attempt 3:
Bets: 5
Banked: $190.55
Days: 2

Attempt 4: Pistons
Bets: 1
Banked: -$100 (attempt bank was at $100)
Days: 1

Attempt 5: Celtics
Bets: 4
Banked: -$100 (attempt bank was at $301.51)
Days: 2

Attempt 6:
Bets: 4
Banked: $214.15
Days: 2

Attempt 7: Tomic
Bets: 3
Banked: -$100 (attempt bank was at $151.56)
Days: 2

Total:
Bets: 31
Banked: $900
Days: 16

Not liking the last 4 plays although mathematically we're not far from where we'd be from after banking attemp 3 because of the banking from attempt 6

[ugabooga]

Time to get this back on track

ATTEMPT 8 - BET 1
Alex Dolgopolov to def Lukas Rosol
$100 to win $23

Tread carefully fellas. Tough to trust Dolgo after losing to Kubot at similar odds last week but basing this play on the following trends -

Lukas Rosol has lost 4 of last 5 overall.
Lukas Rosol has lost 5 of last 6 at ATP level.
Lukas Rosol has lost 6 of last 7 when priced as Moderate Underdog ($3.00 to $5.999).

But so you have all the info when deciding...
Alexandr Dolgopolov has lost 6 of last 7 in Europe.
Alexandr Dolgopolov has lost 6 of last 7 on Indoor Hard

The difference would be the quality of opponent though. BOL!

[ugabooga]

Holy shit down a break first service game

[Lctham]

man looks like lots of upsets with our picks! had to go through agonising tie break with Almagro this morning, thankfully he pulled through!!

BOL with this match though!!

[ugabooga]

Strugglingggggg

[ugabooga]

man looks like lots of upsets with our picks! had to go through agonising tie break with Almagro this morning, thankfully he pulled through!!

BOL with this match though!!

Hearing ya. Some times this seems too easy and some times it just seems too hard

[ugabooga]

ATTEMPT 8 - BET 1
Alex Dolgopolov to def Lukas Rosol
$100 to win $23

Final score:
Dolgopolov def Rosol 2:6,7:6,6:3

Bank
$123

ATTEMPT 8 - BET 2
Caroline Wozniacki to def Simona Halep
$123 to win $23.29

[DeFab146]

Final score: Dolgopolov def Rosol 2:6,7:6,6:3 Bank $123 ATTEMPT 8 - BET 2 Caroline Wozniacki to def Simona Halep $123 to win $23.29

How confident are you with this one Uga? I said I would never bet tennis again after Tomic, but I might need my afternoon fix!

[radost1n1g]

BOL

[dudekid]

lets goooo wozniacki got her at -460 to win 100 BOL uga!

[keel44]

I will be going for my 3rd straight with a NBA pick:

T-Wolves (-180) vs. Jazz


Believe it or not, it is a pick I am most comfortable with for today.

[DeFab146]

I will be going for my 3rd straight with a NBA pick: T-Wolves (-180) vs. Jazz Believe it or not, it is a pick I am most comfortable with for today.

I like the pick. Thanks for the Tampa Bay play yesterday. I had it solo and then also parlayed with Indiana Pacers and Mizzou! Got screwed with Mizzou and I really liked them in a revenge game at home too! Shows you what I know! GL today!

[hancocks]

Final score:
Dolgopolov def Rosol 2:6,7:6,6:3

Bank
$123

ATTEMPT 8 - BET 2
Caroline Wozniacki to def Simona Halep
$123 to win $23.29

Parlayed Goerges and Tsonga with your pick uga Seems to be working out so far,

[dudekid]

tied at 2, have a feeling this is gonna be a tough one fellas

[hancocks]

I'm sensing a sweeeepppp.

[dudekid]

yeah my phone updates pretty slow, turns out she got the first set pretty handily lets go woz finish this off!

[TripleDDD]

Woz

[DeFab146]

NICE WIN!!! I like easy money!

[hancocks]

woot.

[dudekid]

[brigade125]

anybody posting next bet...lets keep it going

[davopnz]

damn sucks that i live in new zealand and i'm asleep when you put the tennis picks up

[brigade125]

okc -475
knicks -245...joe johnson out for hawks
try for the lakers +10...
clippers -475
looking at these picks ....anybody got nhl?

[TripleDDD]

I was thinking Ottawa +1.5 (-425)

[ugabooga]

ATTEMPT 8 - BET 2
Caroline Wozniacki to def Simona Halep
$123 to win $23.29

cash that

ATTEMPT 8 - BET 3
Okc to def Boston
$146.29 to win $32.18

Thunder are 13-1 at home, celts have lost 6 of their last 7, 4 of those by DD and have lost 3 straight on the road.

Celtics are always dangerous but on numbers this is a play.

Loving what's going on in here, boys are doing work!

[Lctham]

nice win on dolgo! did he have you sweating?? he looked terrible early on.

I was a bit late on Wozniacki, she always scares me a lil though.

Im thinking of going in on Raonic (v Gulbis) Raonic coming off win at San Jose, 5-0 on indoor hardcourrt this year, Gulbis, only won the 2 matches this year, and they were davic cup ones v Egypt,

What you think uga??

[ugabooga]

Yep saw that one earlier but the odds werent quite there on my book. Yeah dolgopolov is now on my no touch list haha

nice win on dolgo! did he have you sweating?? he looked terrible early on.

I was a bit late on Wozniacki, she always scares me a lil though.

Im thinking of going in on Raonic (v Gulbis) Raonic coming off win at San Jose, 5-0 on indoor hardcourrt this year, Gulbis, only won the 2 matches this year, and they were davic cup ones v Egypt,

What you think uga??

[Arty]

Love the OKC pick, especially with Rondo still out for the Celts.

[dudekid]

wow OKC just went on a 21-0 run...love my celtics but kinda glad i bet against them here

[BetterBizness]

I like the thread Uga... Best wishes to success!

[Arty]

Lol at this game. Great pick dude. It's nice when you can count your money at halftime.

[njb5572]

Lol at this game. Great pick dude. It's nice when you can count your money at halftime.

easyyyy