Toddorts NBA 2011-2012 Season Picks

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  • toddorts
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-30-11
    • 882

    #71
    Only one pick for tonight:

    Mavericks @ Suns UNDER 192 -110
    Comment
    • toddorts
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-30-11
      • 882

      #72
      Barely eeked out a win tonight. Record was 1-0, +0.91 units.

      Record:

      100-93-3
      51.81%
      +0.69 units
      Comment
      • eTalkMoney
        SBR Rookie
        • 02-29-12
        • 46

        #73
        Nice work for yesterday night. What about today?
        Comment
        • WILLIE
          Restricted User
          • 03-08-12
          • 88

          #74
          toddorts, is there any particular stat/stats that you like to look at to arrive at your picks?
          Comment
          • toddorts
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-30-11
            • 882

            #75
            Originally posted by WILLIE
            toddorts, is there any particular stat/stats that you like to look at to arrive at your picks?
            No, not one in particular. It's a whole host of stats. Everything from average points for/against, to steals, to total rebounding percentage, and lots more. All of it gets different weight in my formulas. It's a pretty complicated system, but most of the work on my part just involves inputing all of the stats and results in my spreadsheet every night, and then the spreadsheet does all of the hard work. It just took a long time to develop it in the first place using years of back-testing, but now that it's all put together, it's not a whole lot of work for me.
            Comment
            • toddorts
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-30-11
              • 882

              #76
              Here are today's picks:

              Nets @ Bobcats UNDER 192.5 -105
              HAWKS @ Pistons PK -108
              TRAILBLAZERS @ Celtics +3 -103
              CAVALIERS @ Thunder +14 -108
              Knicks @ Bucks UNDER 206.5 -105
              KNICKS @ Bucks -1.5 -105
              CLIPPERS @ Suns +5 -103
              Hornets @ Nuggets UNDER 195 -103
              Mavericks @ Kings UNDER 197 -107
              Comment
              • WILLIE
                Restricted User
                • 03-08-12
                • 88

                #77
                Originally posted by toddorts
                No, not one in particular. It's a whole host of stats. Everything from average points for/against, to steals, to total rebounding percentage, and lots more. All of it gets different weight in my formulas. It's a pretty complicated system, but most of the work on my part just involves inputing all of the stats and results in my spreadsheet every night, and then the spreadsheet does all of the hard work. It just took a long time to develop it in the first place using years of back-testing, but now that it's all put together, it's not a whole lot of work for me.
                Seems like a lot of plays to only be even for season. Has this formula/system done any better in the past few years?
                Comment
                • toddorts
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-30-11
                  • 882

                  #78
                  Oh yes. Last season I finished up about 30 units. That's typical. This season is tough. The players didn't have a pre-season, there are tons of back-to-backs, and even a good number of back-to-back-to-backs, and the number of key injuries has been high.
                  Comment
                  • WILLIE
                    Restricted User
                    • 03-08-12
                    • 88

                    #79
                    Originally posted by toddorts
                    Oh yes. Last season I finished up about 30 units. That's typical. This season is tough. The players didn't have a pre-season, there are tons of back-to-backs, and even a good number of back-to-back-to-backs, and the number of key injuries has been high.
                    I completly understand, my NFL system that I've used the last few years has had only 1 loss in last 5 years, but had 4 this last year due to starting QB injuries. When it rains it pours. that's why I've been real reluctant to play very much in NBA this season.
                    Comment
                    • toddorts
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-30-11
                      • 882

                      #80
                      Well, another bad night. Can't seem to keep it in the + numbers. Record was 3-6, -3.15 units.

                      Record:

                      103-99-3
                      50.99%
                      -2.46 units
                      Comment
                      • toddorts
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-30-11
                        • 882

                        #81
                        My formulas are turning out a bunch of unders for tonight's games. I'm a bit wary of it, but I'm sticking with my numbers and making the plays. Totals have been a loser for me so far this year, but hopefully that's just been a fluke. We'll see. Here are the picks:

                        Trailblazers @ Wizards UNDER 201 -110
                        TRAILBLAZERS @ Wizards -5.5 -105
                        Raptors @ Pistons UNDER 185.5 -105
                        RAPTORS @ Pistons +3 -105
                        Pacers @ Heat UNDER 195 -105
                        Hornets @ Timberwolves UNDER 188.5 -105
                        HORNETS @ Timberwolves +8 -108
                        Rockets @ NETS +6.5 -108
                        Grizzlies @ Suns UNDER 192.5 -108
                        GRIZZLIES @ Suns -1.5 -105
                        Mavericks @ Warriors UNDER 194.5 -110
                        MAVERICKS @ Warriors +4 -108
                        Comment
                        • toddorts
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-30-11
                          • 882

                          #82
                          Basically a break even day. Record was 6-6, -0.36 units.

                          Record:

                          109-105-3
                          50.93%
                          -2.82 units
                          Comment
                          • toddorts
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-30-11
                            • 882

                            #83
                            My picks for the early games:

                            76ers @ Knicks UNDER 195 -103
                            76ers @ KNICKS -3 -105
                            Pacers @ Magic UNDER 187 -110
                            PACERS @ Magic +5.5 -108
                            ROCKETS @ Cavaliers +3.5 -108
                            Comment
                            • toddorts
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 09-30-11
                              • 882

                              #84
                              And the picks for the rest of the games:

                              Bucks @ Raptors UNDER 198 -110
                              Bucks @ RAPTORS +2 -104
                              Hawks @ Kings UNDER 193 -108
                              HAWKS @ Kings +1 -105
                              Warriors @ CLIPPERS -7.5 -105
                              Comment
                              • toddorts
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 09-30-11
                                • 882

                                #85
                                Well, there's just no other way to describe today other than calling it a slaughtering. That was just brutal. Record was 1-9, -8.05 units.

                                Record:

                                110-114-3
                                49.11%
                                -10.87 units
                                Comment
                                • toddorts
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-30-11
                                  • 882

                                  #86
                                  Only one thing you can do after a slaughtering: keep going. Bad days happen. Days that bad don't happen often, but they do happen. Hopefully my luck is better tonight:

                                  Bucks @ NETS +3 -105
                                  Knicks @ Bulls UNDER 199 -108
                                  KNICKS @ Bulls +8.5 -102
                                  Bobcats @ Hornets UNDER 183 -110
                                  Bobcats @ HORNETS -6 -113
                                  Wizards @ Spurs UNDER 207 -110
                                  WIZARDS @ Spurs +14.5 -113
                                  Pistons @ JAZZ -6.5 -108
                                  TIMBERWOLVES @ Suns +4 -108
                                  Celtics @ Clippers UNDER 186.5 -108
                                  CLIPPERS @ Celtics -5.5 -103
                                  Comment
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