Toddorts NBA 2011-2012 Season Picks

[toddorts]

Getting started a little bit late in the NBA this year, but after a long break with the lockout, as well as the condensed schedule with lots of back-to-back, and even back-to-back-to-back games this year, I wanted to collect some more stats than usual at the beginning of the season before starting to make plays. Based on the data that I've collected, it's unlikely that I'll be making many plays on totals this year. Maybe the occasional under when it looks really good, but not many. The data is just all over the place with this weird schedule, and we've all seen how low the scoring has been this year. Past season trends just don't seem to apply this year. Sides has been pretty consistent using my usual formulas, though, so they don't seem to be affected quite as much. It's just the crazy low scoring affecting the totals.

Anyway, here are my first picks for this year's season, using the lines from the MGM Grand in Vegas (I'm out in Vegas this week):

Bulls @ 76ERS +1.5
PACERS @ Timberwolves +2.5
Heat @ Bucks UNDER 194.5
THUNDER @ Mavericks +1.5
Rockets @ SPURS -5
Clippers @ JAZZ +3

[toddorts]

A good start! Record was 4-1-1, +2.64 units.

Record:

4-1-1
80%
+2.64 units

[toddorts]

Here are today's picks, again with lines from the MGM:

Hornets @ SPURS -9 -110
TRAILBLAZERS @ Kings -3.5 -110
NUGGETS @ Clippers +1.5 -110

[toddorts]

Another winning night. Record was 2-1, +0.82 units.

Record:

6-2-1
75%
+3.46 units

[toddorts]

Catching a flight out of Vegas today, so I'm back to using lines from the offshore books. Here are today's picks:

WIZARDS @ Raptors +4 -105
Cavaliers @ MAGIC -7.5 -105
BUCKS @ Pistons -4.5 -110
Timberwolves @ NETS +5 -110
KNICKS @ Celtics +6.5 -108

[toddorts]

Not a bad night. Record was 3-2, +0.79 units.

Record:

9-4-1
69.23%
+4.25 units

[toddorts]

Lots of games today, and lots of picks to go with them:

76ERS @ Hawks +3.5 -110
Clippers @ WIZARDS +8.5 -108
Nets @ KNICKS -6 -110
HORNETS @ Pistons -1 -110
Bulls @ BUCKS +5 -103
LAKERS @ Jazz +2 -103
WARRIORS @ Kings +1.5 -108
NUGGETS @ Trailblazers +6 -103

[toddorts]

Man, took a beating in the NBA today. Record was 2-6, -4.18 units.

Record:

11-10-1
52.38%
+0.07 units

[toddorts]

Because of the Super Bowl, there are only two NBA games today, and they both start really early, so I'm going ahead and getting my bets down early. Here are the plays:

GRIZZLIES @ Celtics +4.5 -108
Raptors @ HEAT -15.5 -113

Yeah, I know it's tough to make money in the NBA laying 15.5 points, but I think the Heat win that game by over 20. The Raptors have been absolutely horrible this year, and the Heat have been on fire. Even with this crazy schedule this year, the Heat have still been producing more points than last year. They're really coming together and being the "dream team" that they were expected to be last year. With them coming off of rest, I see no problems with them putting away the Raptors relatively early and keeping a wide lead.

[toddorts]

Guess I was wrong about the Heat! They just fell apart at the end, after holding it at about 15 points for a while. Oh well. Long season still ahead. Record for the day was 0-2, -2.0 units.

Record:

11-12-1
47.83%
-1.93 units

[toddorts]

Not much value to be found in the NBA today, and even the ones that have value don't have a ton. Here are the few picks that I found worthwhile:

Clippers @ MAGIC +1 -108
Kings @ HORNETS -2 -108
THUNDER @ Trailblazers +1 -108

[toddorts]

Another down night. Record was 1-2, -1.07 units.

Record:

12-14-1
46.15%
-3.00 units

[toddorts]

Again, not many picks tonight. Just have two:

Cavaliers @ HEAT -13.5 -103
THUNDER @ Warriors -2.5 -103

[toddorts]

Good night! That Thunder game was unbelievable. I should stop watching these games so I don't stroke out. Record for the night was 2-0, +1.94 units.

Record:

14-14-1
50%
-1.06 units

[toddorts]

Quite a few picks tonight, although it's getting harder and harder to have any degree of accuracy with all of the key injuries piling up in the league. As if it wasn't hard enough with the shortened schedule and all of the B2Bs! Hopefully it can still be a +EV season. Here are the picks:

KNICKS @ Wizards +2 -103
BUCKS @ Raptors -1.5 -108
SPURS @ 76ers +4 -113
Clippers @ CAVALIERS +6.5 -110
Pistons @ NETS -3.5 -108
Bulls @ HORNETS +10 -103
Mavericks @ NUGGETS -1 -108

[toddorts]

Well, the night started out great with four straight winners, but then didn't finish strong. Ended up at 4-3, +0.69 units.

Record:

18-17-1
51.43%
-0.37 units

[toddorts]

Not many games tonight, but I still see value on three of the four. I know most people are expecting a strong win from the Celtics, but I'm predicting a close game, so my money is on the Lakers, who are getting 3.5 points. Here are the picks:

LAKERS @ Celtics +3.5 -113
ROCKETS @ Suns +3.5 -103
THUNDER @ Kings -6.5 -110

[toddorts]

The Thunder just couldn't quite pull it off tonight. Would have been nice to have the sweep, but still can't complain at 2-1, +0.86 units.

Record:

20-18-1
52.63%
+0.49 units

[toddorts]

Quite a few picks today, including a total, which has been rare for me this year. Should be a good night in basketball. Here they are:

Heat @ Wizards UNDER 201.5 -110
HEAT @ Wizards -12.5 -110
HAWKS @ Magic +5 -105
Clippers @ 76ERS -3.5 -110
BUCKS @ Cavaliers PK -108
NETS @ Pistons +3.5 -113
Trailblazers @ HORNETS +7.5 -110
Lakers @ KNICKS +4 -103
THUNDER @ Jazz -1 -105

[toddorts]

Good night! Almost had an even better night, but the damned Hornets threw away an easy cover at the end by fouling way more than necessary. Seriously guys, once you're down by 6 in the last 30 seconds, you aren't going to make it up by fouling. Give it up. Oh well. Still a good night at 6-3, +2.62 units.

Record:

26-21-1
55.32%
+3.11 units

[toddorts]

I feel like I'm tempting fate or something by picking the Knicks and the "Lin-sanity" one more time, but I just can't help what the numbers say, and based on my model, they're likely winners with this spread. We'll see if they can pull it off again. Here are tonight's picks:

NUGGETS @ Pacers +3.5 -108
KNICKS @ Timberwolves +6.5 -110
Trailblazers @ Mavericks +4.5 -103
Magic @ Bucks UNDER 188.5 -110
Magic @ BUCKS +2 -110

[toddorts]

The Knicks pulled it off again! Amazing. Damned Bucks couldn't hold on to a lead, though. Anyway, decent night at 3-2, +0.81 units.

Record:

29-23-1
55.77%
+3.92 units

[mrgodzilla]

nice one picking the Knicks

[toddorts]

Ok, I'll be sleeping when the two early afternoon games start, so I went ahead and capped them before hitting the sack. I couldn't find value on any of the sides, but despite my aversion to totals this year in the NBA, I actually do think there's value on the over in the Lakers game. I see this one finishing with a score of around 97-90, putting the total well over the posted line of 174.5. Anyway, here's my only pick for the early afternoon games, and I'll post picks for the evening games when I wake up and have time to run some numbers on them:

Lakers @ Raptors OVER 174.5 -110

[toddorts]

Well, the first one cashed, so a good start! Unfortunately, I could only find one play with value on tonight's games, though. Everything else looked pretty sharp. Here is my last NBA play of the day:

WIZARDS @ Pistons +6 -110

[mrgodzilla]

winner!!!! on that LA-Tor one

[toddorts]

winner!!!! on that LA-Tor one

Pretty good game, too. I know Kobe is an old man now, but I still enjoy watching him play, even though he is an arrogant bastard.

[toddorts]

Didn't have many plays today, but both of them worked out! Record for the day was 2-0, +1.82 units.

Record:

31-23-1
57.41%
+5.74 units

[mrgodzilla]

2-0 thanks
i was gonna do ML for wiz but got gun shy

[toddorts]

I've got quite a few picks today for such a small number of games. As I've said before, I'm still hesitant to bet on totals this season, but I think there's value on the under in the Heat/Bucks game. I see the game finishing around 190 points, and the line is set at 201.5. Lebron and crew could certainly put up a lot more points than I'm expecting, but I don't think this will be the high scoring affair that the line indicates. Anyway, here are the picks:

Timberwolves @ MAGIC -5 -105
Jazz @ HORNETS +5 -105
Heat @ Bucks UNDER 201.5 -110
Clippers @ MAVERICKS -4 -110
Suns @ WARRIORS -3 -103

[toddorts]

Another good night! That's 7 days straight that I'm up. I wish I could keep that up forever. Record for the night was 3-1-1, +1.86 units.

Record:

34-24-2
58.62%
+7.60 units

[toddorts]

I've got a decent number of picks today, but some of them are close calls. As always, I'm hesitant about betting a total this year, but I think the under has value in the Heat game. They burned me last night, so hopefully it won't happen twice in a row. A lot of people seem to think the Thunder can cover the 12 point spread against the Jazz, but I'm just not seeing it. Twelve points is a lot to cover, even for the Thunder, and the Jazz aren't exactly a horrible team. I think the Jazz can stay in this game enough to cover. The Nuggets are probably the closest call today. They've burned me on several plays, and 9 points is a lot for them against the Suns, but I think on their home court, they should be able to pull it off. My favorite pick of the night is the Hawks against the Lakers. The Lakers have been subpar this year, and I think even with the Lakers at home, the Hawks should easily be able to cover 5.5. Anyway, here are the picks:

Heat @ Pacers UNDER 198 -107
SPURS @ Pistons -8.5 -113
JAZZ @ Thunder +12 -108
Kings @ BULLS -11.5 -113
Suns @ NUGGETS -9 -103
HAWKS @ Lakers +5.5 -105

[toddorts]

Well, I knew I was due for a down night, and it finally hit me. Record for the night was 2-4, -2.09 units.

Record:

36-28-2
56.25%
+5.51 units

[toddorts]

Got a bunch of picks for today:

SPURS @ Raptors -6.5 -113
GRIZZLIES @ Nets -3.5 -101
PACERS @ Cavaliers -1.5 -107
Pistons @ CELTICS -9.5 -105
HORNETS @ Bucks +9 -102
Thunder @ ROCKETS +3.5 -110
NUGGETS @ Mavericks +7 -107
HAWKS @ Suns PK -108
TRAILBLAZERS @ Warriors +5 -102
WIZARDS @ Clippers +13 -103

[toddorts]

A pretty good night. Idiots Wizards were covering the whole damned game, and threw it away at the end, though. Still, not bad at 6-4, +1.67 units.

Record:

42-32-2
56.76%
+7.18 units