Loungee 2011-2012 Official Plays (Lets Make Some Money!)

loungee · 02-09-12, 09:58 PM

OKC -6.5 (1U) LOSS
OKC plays against bad teams very well, and as we've seen, it doesn't matter if they are on a B2B, a days rest or whatever the case may be. They're good, they're young and despite SAC playing good as of late, OKC should cover. No time for stats and angles.

loungee · 02-09-12, 11:55 PM

1-1-1 is a bit disappointing, especially since we needed one basket for the win in the LAL/BOS game with, what, 1:40ish left in OT? But a push is better then a loss I suppose. One second half play:

OKC -5.5 2H (1U) LOSS
Even though OKC seems disinterested at times during this game but they should be able to get it going better in the second half. SAC is shooting 46% so far (on 50 shots), and there is no way they keep that up. By the end of the game, they should be shooting around 40%. OKC is shooting 47.5% on 10 less shots. They should be able to come out and eventually run away with this with SAC shooting percentage falling fast.
History tip: As of late, I haven't fared too well with these second half plays, so feel free to fade me. BOL either way.

BigBurk · 02-10-12, 01:25 AM

Damn dude.. sorry OKC screwed you over last night. I placed a small bet on SAC +6½ yesterday since OKC didn't really have the hang of it as of late. 6½ points seemed too much to me, and with all the money on OKC, why didn't the line move?

I think the bookies expected this one...

Edit: I was on the over 177½ at the BOS/LA game.. That one was harsh with 33 points in the fourth and only 11 in OT with 1.40 left.....

loungee · 02-10-12, 01:35 AM

You definitely made the right call on the OKC/SAC game (obviously) and I noticed the public pounding OKC and chose to go with my gut instinct. Stupid gut. I've been getting a little frustrated the last three days and going away from angles/stats/line movement and have been going on feel. Tomorrow is strictly a "no feel/no gut" day and all stats/angles/line movement. Depending on how tomorrow's games turn out, I may take the weekend off away to get back on track. Juicy card tomorrow so np excuses if I keep sliding. Glad to hear you cashed on the OKC/SAC game. Onto tomorrow. BOL tomorrow

loungee · 02-10-12, 01:30 PM

Writeup to come.
CHI -13 (2U)
NO +7.5 (1U) *This one might go up to +8 by game time so you can afford to wait.
ATL/ORL, U182.5 (1U)
CHA TT U85 (2U)
There will be more but waiting for the line to move in my favor on a few games as I suspect it will.

loungee · 02-10-12, 01:47 PM

BOS/TOR U174
TOR +3.5
These aren't official plays yet bit the line movement, or lack thereof, is interesting to me. 82% of the public on BOS yet the line hasn't budged? 72% on the over but the line fell from 175.5 to 174? These would be strictly public fade/line movement plays as I haven't been able to properly research since im still at work.

loungee · 02-10-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by loungee

Writeup to come.
CHI -13 (2U)
NO +7.5 (1U) *This one might go up to +8 by game time so you can afford to wait.
ATL/ORL, U182.5 (1U)
CHA TT U85 (2U)
There will be more but waiting for the line to move in my favor on a few games as I suspect it will.

Quite a few plays tonight, as there were a lot that jumped out at me. I left my gut and brain out of these, and went back to the way I was capping at the beginning. BOL to all.

Record as of 2/10/12
ATS Record: 44-35-0 (+6.00 Units) (56%)
O/U Record: 43-35-2 (+25.00 Units) (55%)
ML Record: 1-0-0 (+1.00 Units) (100%)
Overall Record: 88-70-2 (+32.0 Units) (56%)

CHI -13 (2U) WIN
This CHI teams has been absolutely destroying the worst teams in the league, and is one of the few teams (thanks Coach Thibs) that when up big, they keep their foot on the gas pedal, usually by keeping his starters in the game well into the 4th. And even if the "bench mob" comes in, they're more then capable of keeping the score up. The bench for this CHI team is better then the starters for CHA, which is saying a lot. This spread is a bit high (adjusted line if this was in CHI would be around -19) but CHI has been proving that they will keep beating up the worst of the worst, and CHA is the worse in the league. CHI is 12-6 on the road ATS and won their last three games (all on road) by an average of over 22 points against MIL, NJN and NO, all of which are better then CHA, who is really banged up. CHA is 3-7 ATS at home, failing to cover 7 of their last 8 home games, losing those games by an average of over 14 points per game, against far inferior defensive teams like NYK, CLE, DET and HOU. I was wrong about CHI v. NJN, thinking they wouldn't be getting up and expending a lot of energy over the next 3 games against the worst teams in the league, but I was wrong. And I should've known better, given that I live in CHI. What Thibs does to the Bulls starters could be bad for them in the long run but great for gamblers.

CHA TT U85 (2U) WIN
CHA is averaging 78.5 ppg over their last four games, and have only scored over 85 twice in their last 8 games. They can't score with the injuries to this team, and the Bulls defense is just too good. They've been playing a lot better on the road the last couple of games compared to what they started the season off with. CHI is healthy and on a roll. I'd be surprised if CHA makes it to 75, especially given that even if/when the game gets out of hand, the Bulls don't let up on defense, as evidenced in the NO game.

ATL/ORL U182.5 (1U) WIN
This season, whenever I play an ORL game, I am very cautious when it comes to what play and how many units for the simple fact that they are so unpredictable.. a gamblers worst nightmare. However, I like this under for quite a few reasons. First off, both teams are top 15 in DEFF, top 8 in opp. PPG and both teams are in top 6 for fewest fouls committed per game. Despite ORL's inconsistent offensive play, they have been a pretty good defense all year, mainly because of the man in the middle. Both teams have only played one game in the last 3 days so they're both rested, and I expect a lot of defense. Over the last couple of years, these teams have developed a nice little rivalry so I expect this game to be close, turning into a defensive effort after a running first quarter. Oh, and don't forget that both teams are top 10-13 in all four major opp. shooting % categories (opp. shooting %, eFG %, 2pt % and true shooting %).

NYK +4 (1U) WIN
I was waiting for this to get to +4 to take it. Neither team is particularly good ATS (both below .500) but NYK have been on a roll ever since losing Melo and Amare, and Lin stepping up and taking over at PG where he should've been over Shumpert. Shumpert just isn't a true PG, and that showed pretty clearly. But that's beside that point. NYK have quietly covered their last 6 straight games, and last 4 home games, and against pretty good teams like UT, BOS and CHI. They played well lately at home after coming back from a brutal 4 game road trip, where they went 1-3 and losing to CLE, MIA, and HOU, all by double digits. As I've stated before, this Knicks team just plays better as a actual team without Melo and Amare, or at least without Mr. Ballhog, Mr. ISO, Mr. Selfish.. Melo. I'm on the record that I'm not quite sipping the Jeremy Lin kool-aid yet, but he's been undoubtedly an upgrade, given that Shumpert is actually a SG. LAL have been picking up steam lately as well, covering 4 of their last 6, and beating their rival BOS last night in a tough, methodical, OT thriller. They put everything they had into that game, though. They're 3-6 in their last 9 road games, and coming in gased and traveling last night (albeit not that far), I think NYK keep it close.

PHI -3.5 (1U) LOSS
This is one of those matchups where it's two very talented teams, and the game is about great offense vs. great defense. However, it is also a matchup of bad defense vs. good offense. PHI is a very well rounded team, while LAC are very inept on the defensive side. Offensively, they are both top 10 in just about every major offensive category (shooting % categories and PPG). But defensively, it is a whole different story. LAC rank 25th, 22nd, 17th and 14th in true shooting %, opp. shooting %, eFG%, 2pt % and rank 24th in opp. PPG and 23rd in DEFF. Overall, they're in the bottom third of the league. PHI could not be any more different. They are 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 1st in opp. shooting %, eFG%, 2pt % and true shooting %, as well as 2nd in opp. PPG and 1st in DEFF. At home ATS, PHI is in the top part of the league going 12-5 while LAC is 4-5-1 on the road. PHI bounced back nicely after the throttling put on them by MIA by covering and beating ATL and LAL (followed of course by a SU loss to SA). PHI, at home, against this Clippers team, should be able to cover, as they continue on to the #3 seed in the East. I like Philly in this spot quite a bit.

BOS/TOR U174.5 (1U) WIN
The public has been all over this over all day, but the line is falling. I'm going to fade the public in this one. TOR has been scoring lately, but against horrible defenses. Against decent to good defenses? They've averaged 78.5 PPG, which include MIA (a little overrated by media, average by statistical standards), ATL, BOS and POR. BOS is on a B2B but that shouldn't make a difference. BOS scores the 2nd lowest PPG at home, while TOR scores the 4th lowest on the road. Neither of these teams should even be close to 90. BOS will try to run a slow offensive game after last night, and TOR.. well, they just can't score with Bargnani, and barely could with him.

NO +7.5 (1U) LOSS
I know.. I know.. it's NO. I must be out of mind. Hold your laughter til AFTER you read please. Hear me out. NO is not as bad as the game they played against CHI. CHI is just that good. NO has some decent pieces (for NO standards I guess) in Ariza, Kaman, and Okafor. Aside from one or two recent games, NO keeps the games competitive.. until the fourth quarter at least. Neither team's ATS record away (POR, 3-9) and at home (NO, 4-11) are impressive, but one of the trends I've noticed this year is fading POR on the road is usually a good idea. POR is 1-5 in their last 6 road games ATS (2-8 in their last 10 road games ATS), and only beat this exact NO team in this exact arena by 7 Jan. 16th. POR just isn't a good road team for whatever reason. I'll take the points.

loungee · 02-10-12, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by loungee

Quite a few plays tonight, as there were a lot that jumped out at me. I left my gut and brain out of these, and went back to the way I was capping at the beginning. BOL to all.

Record as of 2/10/12
ATS Record: 44-35-0 (+6.00 Units) (56%)
O/U Record: 43-35-2 (+25.00 Units) (55%)
ML Record: 1-0-0 (+1.00 Units) (100%)
Overall Record: 88-70-2 (+32.0 Units) (56%)

CHI -13 (2U) WIN
This CHI teams has been absolutely destroying the worst teams in the league, and is one of the few teams (thanks Coach Thibs) that when up big, they keep their foot on the gas pedal, usually by keeping his starters in the game well into the 4th. And even if the "bench mob" comes in, they're more then capable of keeping the score up. The bench for this CHI team is better then the starters for CHA, which is saying a lot. This spread is a bit high (adjusted line if this was in CHI would be around -19) but CHI has been proving that they will keep beating up the worst of the worst, and CHA is the worse in the league. CHI is 12-6 on the road ATS and won their last three games (all on road) by an average of over 22 points against MIL, NJN and NO, all of which are better then CHA, who is really banged up. CHA is 3-7 ATS at home, failing to cover 7 of their last 8 home games, losing those games by an average of over 14 points per game, against far inferior defensive teams like NYK, CLE, DET and HOU. I was wrong about CHI v. NJN, thinking they wouldn't be getting up and expending a lot of energy over the next 3 games against the worst teams in the league, but I was wrong. And I should've known better, given that I live in CHI. What Thibs does to the Bulls starters could be bad for them in the long run but great for gamblers.

CHA TT U85 (2U) WIN
CHA is averaging 78.5 ppg over their last four games, and have only scored over 85 twice in their last 8 games. They can't score with the injuries to this team, and the Bulls defense is just too good. They've been playing a lot better on the road the last couple of games compared to what they started the season off with. CHI is healthy and on a roll. I'd be surprised if CHA makes it to 75, especially given that even if/when the game gets out of hand, the Bulls don't let up on defense, as evidenced in the NO game.

ATL/ORL U182.5 (1U) WIN
This season, whenever I play an ORL game, I am very cautious when it comes to what play and how many units for the simple fact that they are so unpredictable.. a gamblers worst nightmare. However, I like this under for quite a few reasons. First off, both teams are top 15 in DEFF, top 8 in opp. PPG and both teams are in top 6 for fewest fouls committed per game. Despite ORL's inconsistent offensive play, they have been a pretty good defense all year, mainly because of the man in the middle. Both teams have only played one game in the last 3 days so they're both rested, and I expect a lot of defense. Over the last couple of years, these teams have developed a nice little rivalry so I expect this game to be close, turning into a defensive effort after a running first quarter. Oh, and don't forget that both teams are top 10-13 in all four major opp. shooting % categories (opp. shooting %, eFG %, 2pt % and true shooting %).

NYK +4 (1U) WIN
I was waiting for this to get to +4 to take it. Neither team is particularly good ATS (both below .500) but NYK have been on a roll ever since losing Melo and Amare, and Lin stepping up and taking over at PG where he should've been over Shumpert. Shumpert just isn't a true PG, and that showed pretty clearly. But that's beside that point. NYK have quietly covered their last 6 straight games, and last 4 home games, and against pretty good teams like UT, BOS and CHI. They played well lately at home after coming back from a brutal 4 game road trip, where they went 1-3 and losing to CLE, MIA, and HOU, all by double digits. As I've stated before, this Knicks team just plays better as a actual team without Melo and Amare, or at least without Mr. Ballhog, Mr. ISO, Mr. Selfish.. Melo. I'm on the record that I'm not quite sipping the Jeremy Lin kool-aid yet, but he's been undoubtedly an upgrade, given that Shumpert is actually a SG. LAL have been picking up steam lately as well, covering 4 of their last 6, and beating their rival BOS last night in a tough, methodical, OT thriller. They put everything they had into that game, though. They're 3-6 in their last 9 road games, and coming in gased and traveling last night (albeit not that far), I think NYK keep it close.

PHI -3.5 (1U) LOSS
This is one of those matchups where it's two very talented teams, and the game is about great offense vs. great defense. However, it is also a matchup of bad defense vs. good offense. PHI is a very well rounded team, while LAC are very inept on the defensive side. Offensively, they are both top 10 in just about every major offensive category (shooting % categories and PPG). But defensively, it is a whole different story. LAC rank 25th, 22nd, 17th and 14th in true shooting %, opp. shooting %, eFG%, 2pt % and rank 24th in opp. PPG and 23rd in DEFF. Overall, they're in the bottom third of the league. PHI could not be any more different. They are 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 1st in opp. shooting %, eFG%, 2pt % and true shooting %, as well as 2nd in opp. PPG and 1st in DEFF. At home ATS, PHI is in the top part of the league going 12-5 while LAC is 4-5-1 on the road. PHI bounced back nicely after the throttling put on them by MIA by covering and beating ATL and LAL (followed of course by a SU loss to SA). PHI, at home, against this Clippers team, should be able to cover, as they continue on to the #3 seed in the East. I like Philly in this spot quite a bit.

BOS/TOR U174.5 (1U) WIN
The public has been all over this over all day, but the line is falling. I'm going to fade the public in this one. TOR has been scoring lately, but against horrible defenses. Against decent to good defenses? They've averaged 78.5 PPG, which include MIA (a little overrated by media, average by statistical standards), ATL, BOS and POR. BOS is on a B2B but that shouldn't make a difference. BOS scores the 2nd lowest PPG at home, while TOR scores the 4th lowest on the road. Neither of these teams should even be close to 90. BOS will try to run a slow offensive game after last night, and TOR.. well, they just can't score with Bargnani, and barely could with him.

NO +7.5 (1U) LOSS
I know.. I know.. it's NO. I must be out of mind. Hold your laughter til AFTER you read please. Hear me out. NO is not as bad as the game they played against CHI. CHI is just that good. NO has some decent pieces (for NO standards I guess) in Ariza, Kaman, and Okafor. Aside from one or two recent games, NO keeps the games competitive.. until the fourth quarter at least. Neither team's ATS record away (POR, 3-9) and at home (NO, 4-11) are impressive, but one of the trends I've noticed this year is fading POR on the road is usually a good idea. POR is 1-5 in their last 6 road games ATS (2-8 in their last 10 road games ATS), and only beat this exact NO team in this exact arena by 7 Jan. 16th. POR just isn't a good road team for whatever reason. I'll take the points.

Great start to the night. Would've loved a clean sweep, but I can't complain considering my 2-3 nights before. I don't know why I was being stubborn on going back to how orignally handicapped but great to have it pay off. I may have a play on the OKC/UT game. If so, it'll be posted within the next 10-15 minutes.

loungee · 02-10-12, 10:27 PM

UT ML, +EV (1U) LOSS
80% of the public are OKC and the line hasn't moved once all day? One of my books just moved it to a "pk," while another one still has it at +1 -110. I'll take the UT ML for a slightly better odds and risk UT actually losing by one. Anyways, OKC is a young team who seem to bounce back, and are actually 4-1 ATS after a loss. They got beat SU by a SAC team that, although starting to come into their own with new head coach Keith Smart, is far inferior to OKC. They could come out, with intensity and anger, and beat UT. With all that being said, UT is the right play here. OKC is playing their 5th game in 7 days, in the altitude, and UT is a very good home team (11-4 overall, 9-5-1 ATS). I think UT trys, and succeeds, in controlling the tempo simply because they know they can't out run or out shoot this OKC, no matter how tired they are, which is another reason why I like the under. But I'm just gonna play the ML. The public seems to think OKC is unstoppable, a wrecking machine, no matter where they play, home or away. That's evidenced by 80% backing them, despite all these given facts such as B2B, 5 in 7, etc. UT should win this given the circumstances, but it'll be a close game all the way. UT by 4-5 points. BOL

loungee · 02-11-12, 07:49 PM

No time for full writeup as im under the weather.

DAL -4.5 (1U) LOSS
SAS -9.5 (1U)WIN

POR is on a B2B and playing on the road again, barely pulling out the victory against the lowly Hornets. And they're bad on the road. NJN are just bad.

loungee · 02-12-12, 12:19 PM

HOU/GSW, O203 (1U)
CHI -2.5 (1U)
DET -6 (1U)
HOU +2 (1U)

Writeups will come soon.

loungee · 02-12-12, 03:09 PM

CHI -2.5 (1U) LOSS
The line dropped to -1.5 because Rose is out. Even better. I'd be more worried if Deng still wasn't back and full strength but he is. BOS is old and just got beatdown by a bad TOR team. I am tired of hearing the arguments that "There'd no way BOS loses again" or "BOS is due for a win" cause those are nonsense with no statistics to back them up. Yes they could lose again cause they're not a good team. They're old and Rondo has to be one of the most overrated players in the league. Wanna know why his assists are so high? He's surrounded by shooters. He can't hit a 15good foot shot to save his life. Why do you think teams play 3-5well feet off him at end of games, daring him to beat them? Without Rose, CHI still has the best bench, best team defense and best coach on that court this afternoon. Don't get fooled that BOS is "due," or all those nonsensical arguments. Remember last time CHI played at BOS? Was supposed to be a trap game right? How'd that turn out?

CHI/BOS O 173.5 (1U) WIN
I know BOS struggles to score at home but CHI is going to look to keep it fast paced with Watson and the fact BOS is older. You're telling me neither team can score at least 87 points?

HOU/GSW O 203 (2U) PUSH
Both teams play fast paced, both teams run and gun, and both can shoot pretty good. GSW is back to their old self from last year since getting Curry back. This should sail over.

DET -6 (1U) LOSS
WSH is awful, while DET just won 4 in a row recently, thanks in large part yo Greg Monroe. I don't Luke taking the "Bottom 3" unless they're at home, rested, plating one pf the other. DET seems to be playing well as a team now while WSH is a disaster.

HOU +2 (1U) LOSS
The most underrated team around. This should be a shootout, with GSW choking at home as usual.

Sorry these Writeups aren't as indepth as usual but im still under the weather. BOL

Upyourgame · 02-12-12, 05:25 PM

going to be tight on the chi/bos over, got it at 173

BigBurk · 02-12-12, 05:27 PM

Get well soon dude. Dont really like that we have some opposing plays tonight (im on Boston, Wash) but hey at least one of us will win!

Agree on both overs though, Boston/Chic over is looking great, 36 points in the fourth shouldnt be a problem!

loungee · 02-12-12, 07:10 PM

Thanks Burk. We cashed that CHI/BOS over at least. Line dropped to 171.5 around tifp off so I put 2 more units on it. It was a nice win. I underestimated the toll this toad trip took on the Bulls so congrats on the BOS cash. Im already eyeing the rematch Thursday night in Chicago for a nice play. Nice cash. Looking back, I have no idea why I made a play on DET. That was reckless. The line is inflated due to their win streak. Maybe I can get lucky. BOL the rest of the night.

loungee · 02-12-12, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by loungee

CHI -2.5 (1U)
The line dropped to -1.5 because Rose is out. Even better. I'd be more worried if Deng still wasn't back and full strength but he is. BOS is old and just got beatdown by a bad TOR team. I am tired of hearing the arguments that "There'd no way BOS loses again" or "BOS is due for a win" cause those are nonsense with no statistics to back them up. Yes they could lose again cause they're not a good team. They're old and Rondo has to be one of the most overrated players in the league. Wanna know why his assists are so high? He's surrounded by shooters. He can't hit a 15good foot shot to save his life. Why do you think teams play 3-5well feet off him at end of games, daring him to beat them? Without Rose, CHI still has the best bench, best team defense and best coach on that court this afternoon. Don't get fooled that BOS is "due," or all those nonsensical arguments. Remember last time CHI played at BOS? Was supposed to be a trap game right? How'd that turn out?

CHI/BOS O 173.5 (1U)
I know BOS struggles to score at home but CHI is going to look to keep it fast paced with Watson and the fact BOS is older. You're telling me neither team can score at least 87 points?

HOU/GSW O 203 (2U)
Both teams play fast paced, both teams run and gun, and both can shoot pretty good. GSW is back to their old self from last year since getting Curry back. This should sail over.

DET -6 (1U)
WSH is awful, while DET just won 4 in a row recently, thanks in large part yo Greg Monroe. I don't Luke taking the "Bottom 3" unless they're at home, rested, plating one pf the other. DET seems to be playing well as a team now while WSH is a disaster.

HOU +2 (1U)
The most underrated team around. This should be a shootout, with GSW choking at home as usual.

Sorry these Writeups aren't as indepth as usual but im still under the weather. BOL

Adding 1 more unit to HOU/GSW over. BOL everyone

loungee · 02-12-12, 08:25 PM

Two 2H plays I'm eyeing right now in the MIA/ATL game, and I think I'm gonna roll with them:
MIA/ATL 2H O92.5 (1U) LOSS
ATL 2H -3.5 (1U) LOSS

This game will be ugly the rest of the way, with perhaps MIA starters resting the entire fourth quarter. There will be ugly baskets, ugly ball but all in all, I think ATL can outscore MIA by 4 and both teams hit the over. It should end up being a pretty high scoring game.

loungee · 02-12-12, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by loungee

Two 2H plays I'm eyeing right now in the MIA/ATL game, and I think I'm gonna roll with them:
MIA/ATL 2H O92.5 (1U) LOSS
ATL 2H -3.5 (1U) LOSS

This game will be ugly the rest of the way, with perhaps MIA starters resting the entire fourth quarter. There will be ugly baskets, ugly ball but all in all, I think ATL can outscore MIA by 4 and both teams hit the over. It should end up being a pretty high scoring game.

They were both right there for the taking. A little surprised to say the least but 3 more plays left out there, as I am adding one last play for the night.

UT/MEM O188.5 (1U)
I was hoping this would drop to 188 but 188.5 is still worth a play. This game should be uptempo, with a lot of shots and points in the paint, with Gasol having a career day against Utah's undersized big men.

loungee · 02-12-12, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by loungee

They were both right there for the taking. A little surprised to say the least but 3 more plays left out there, as I am adding one last play for the night. UT/MEM O188.5 (1U) I was hoping this would drop to 188 but 188.5 is still worth a play. This game should be uptempo, with a lot of shots and points in the paint, with Gasol having a career day against Utah's undersized big men.

HOU/GSW 2H O101.5 (3U) WIN
Roughly 26 points each team, per quarter? Seems almost too good to be true but I don't see an abysmal shooting performance in the second half as what happened in the first. As before, I haven't fared well in 2H bets before, so please, feel free to fade, but I really like this number and for both teams to come out and pile on the points.

loungee · 02-13-12, 12:01 AM

Record as of 2/12/12
ATS Record: 47-42-0 (+3.00 Units) (53%)
O/U Record: 48-37-2 (+27.00 Units) (57%)
ML Record: 1-1-0 (+0.00 Units) (50%)
Overall Record: 95-78-2 (+30.0 Units) (55%)

Tough night with the UT/MEM coming up a basket short, the two 2H plays for MIA/ATL just barely missing, while the HOU/GSW pushed (although I checked my ticket and I snagged it at 202.5) but I push on here none the less. A couple of games I'm eyeing for tomorrow so we'll see if we can bounce back:

PHO/GSW O??
MIA/MIL O201
MIA -5.5
LAC +4

BigBurk · 02-13-12, 01:44 AM

Damn I thought I pushed on that GSW/HOU over. Just woke up this morning to see I had it locked in at 203½..

loungee · 02-13-12, 01:42 PM

That's rough. It should've gone over either way if Ellis, a remarkable free throw shooter, makes one of his three misses, especially at the end of the game. McHale didn't help either with his ineptness on the coaching side. I was also eyeing NO +4.5 but word is both Kaman and Okafor are questionable, which depletes their already thin frontcourt with Landry and Smith out. Okafor might gut it out, which means he wont be a 100%. Despite UT on a B2B, I might make a shot play on them or neither.

loungee · 02-13-12, 05:21 PM

For the first time, I'm going with all favorites (as of now), and fading the public on one. I'm not sure how much I like that, but all of these plays should be on the right side.

PHI 1H -6.5 (2U) WIN PHI -11.5 (1U) LOSS
I decided to save some time and use basically the same writeup for both plays. Ok.. we all know how bad the Bobcats are and we all know how decimated their team is by injuries. PHI and CHI are two of the few teams that can go up big, home or away, and their bench can keep the scoring up. I expect PHI to go up big by half, around 10-14 points and I also expect this to be a blowout all the way to the end. But, to be on the safe side, I made my first half play larger then the game play because, god forbid, CHA somehow makes a back door cover, I'm at least covered on all aspects. But a backdoor cover is not something that is expected. Then again, this is the NBA...

MIA -6 (1U) WIN
MIL has owned the Heat over the last two years, and especially this year, beating them twice and beating them pretty handidly. With that being said, MIA is the right side. First of all, because MIL basically embrassed the Heat twice earlier this year, this is a double revenge game. Even though a lot of people believe coaches and players aren't too worried about the standings with it being a condensed schedule, MIA watched the Bulls lose last night, and come out tonight to take over first place. MIA did play last night, and it is a bit of a trip from ATL to MIL, but the Big 3 rested the fourth quarter as the team coasted to a easy victory. I expect both teams to come out a bit sluggish (as the Heat always seem to do. Remember Friday night against the Wiz? Close game until MIA ultimately blew them out), but MIA pulls away mid 3rd/4th quarter.

DAL -4 (1U) PUSH
65% of the public are on the Clips, yet all this line has done was move from -4.5, to -4, back to -4.5. I expected the public to be all over the Clips, as they are the "hot new thing in town." But the Clippers are awful on defense, where as DAL is a top 10 defensive team. DAL also has the type of shooters to keep up with the Clips (Dirk, Terry, Odom, while Carter, Marion and Kidd can still have "those" types of games). This is also another revenge spot, and given that it is on DAL's home court, I think -4.5 is just low enough for them to cover.

I'm also a bit intrigued by MIN +5 and UT -5 and the overs in the MIA/MIL and PHX/GSW games but no offcial plays yet. Good luck to everyone.

loungee · 02-13-12, 07:47 PM

Adding:
UT -5 (1U) LOSS
Okafor has been ruled out, while Kaman will start tonight. I don't know if he's 100% or not, but nonetheless, will be starting. This is a NO team with Jack, Gordon, Landry, Smith, now Okafor and are completely thin upfront. Millsap and jefferson should be able to dominate downlow, while Harris and Bell keeping the perimeter D of the NO (if they have one) honest outside.

loungee · 02-13-12, 09:35 PM

Last play for the night:

PHO/GSW O203 (1U) LOSS

loungee · 02-14-12, 04:25 PM

Record as of 2/14/12
ATS Record: 49-44-1 (+2.00 Units) (53%)
O/U Record: 47-39-3 (+30.00 Units) (55%)
ML Record: 1-1-0 (0.00 Units) (50%)
Overall Record: 97-84-4 (+32.0 Units) (54%)

IND +2 (1U) LOSS
I think there is some good value in this play. MIA has won their first two of their 3 games in 3 days pretty easily, as IND is just starting their own 3 games in 3 days, with NJN and CLE awaiting them ahead. IND should come out and win this straightup, with their engergetic, grind-it-out type of style, knowing that a.) this is MIA, and every team is playing their butts off every game to beat this team; b.) their next two opponents are no where near the quality of team that MIA is. This is also a huge public fade, with the line not moving all that much since posted. IND won't be able to out shoot MIA, but their defense is statistically better, and the hustle and grind type of mentality of IND should be able to eek this win straight up out.

HOU +3.5 (1U) LOSS
MEM is in a horrible fatigue spot here. They are playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with it also being the start of 4 games in 5 days (8 games in 12 days total), while HOU is coming off a tough loss at the GSW and are only playing their 2nd game in 5 days. MEM has struggled this year with ZBo out, I think HOU can take full advantages of the tired legs of MEM, which will play a factor into their defense and their ability to shoot jumpshots (Gay, Conley and Mayo are predominatly jump shooters).

The rest of the writeups will be coming a bit later.

loungee · 02-14-12, 07:35 PM

ATL/LAL U 177.5 (2U) WIN
Both of these teams have struggled imensely to score this season, with ATL and LAL ranking 14th and 21st respectively. Both of these teams have been rather sluggish shooting percentage wise, ranking between 10-20 in the four major shooting percentage categories, with the exception of LAL in 2pt % (5th). Defensively, they are both in the top 7 in OPPG and respectable as far as DEFF (ATL 8th, LAL 11th). Even though LAL just can't get it going offensively, the defensive side of the ball has been consistent and very good, ranking top 5 in all four major opp. shooting % categories, with ATL not far behind (ranking top 10). Given their poor offensive performances ( ATL has scored an average of just under 88 in their last 6 games while LAL has scored an average of under 89 per game in their last 6) and both defenses being very good and stout, I'm taking the under in this one. I highly doubt it will be a fast paced, uptempo type of game. In fact, i would be surprised if either team hit 90 points.

ATL +5.5 (2U) LOSS
ATL is coming off an absolutely embrassing, home thumping at the hands of the Heat, and this is not the LAL of old. Well, they are old. Despite the absence of Horford, ATL has played well enough to be the current four seed in the East, which is a shock to me too. They're not exactly a proud, gutty team (see Magic, Orlando), but they should come into Lakerland and keep this game close. To be honest, the two key players for ATL is going to eb Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams. If they can give this team so good to great play, ATL may even win this straight up. Even though ATL hasn't been playing their best ball lately, overall their above .500 ATS this year while LAL is 12-16. Lastly, let's not forget, LAL hasn't covered against any teams currently in playoff position at home this year except LAC, NYK (in because of weak East) and HOU while failing to cover against GSW and CLE (not even playoff teams), as well as IND, DAL and DEN.

CHI 1H -7 (2U) LOSS
I just couldn't make myself take the game spread, as I don't know how CHI will bounce back on their first game at home after a long road trip but I'm leaning towards CHI ATS. However, I do anticipate them to come out, wheeling and dealing, firing on all cylinders in the first half, mounting a very good lead at half time. Will SAC backdoor cover or cover SU in the end? It's hard to say. Being that it is CHI's first home game in a long time (they've played 20 of their first 30 games on the road this year), I see them beating up on SAC early, while their top 3 defense holds off SAC.

loungee · 02-14-12, 07:49 PM

Adding:
POR -8.5 1H (1U) LOSS
Ths game spread is way to high, as this WSH is bad but not CHA bad. They've actually got players who resemble actual NBA players like Wall, Lewis, and McGee. However, POR is at home, and look to make a statement early as they have lost their last 2 home games. POR should be able to run all over WSH early, securing a big lead, but it wouldn't surprise me if WSH backdoor covered in the end. That's why I'm taking the first half spread because, as I stated earlier, POR will come out and pound WSH early, but I expect WSH to be able to cut it under 15 in the fourth. First half spread looks like a better bet then the game.

UT/OKC O199 (1U) LOSS
I like this for a few reasons: Yes, UT hasn't scored much lately (only averaging a shade over 91 points a game their last 6) but UT is on their 3rd game in 3 days so I don't expect any defense on their part. OKC will score at will, and won't play much defense as usual. This play hinges on UT being able to get their undersized bigs involved in the game and being able to hit their jump shots, because this game will be uptempo from start to finish, with defense few and far between, of course, for different reasons for the different teams.

loungee · 02-14-12, 08:01 PM

Waaaaaaaaaay off on IND keeping this game close. Ridiclious first half.

loungee · 02-14-12, 09:59 PM

Last play of the night:

WSH/POR U 194 (1U) LOSS
I'm gonna break it down from the offensive and defensive standpoints. Offensivly, POR is good, ranking 6th in PPG (1st at home), 12 in OEFF, and average in the four shooting categories (15, 15, 9, 14). WSH is horrible offensively. On all levels. They rank 25th in PPG (25th on the road), 29th in OEFF, and rank at the bottom in the four shooting categories (28, 28, 26 and 29). But where the under is going to come is with POR's defense. POR is 10 (9th at home) and 4, respectively, in OPPG and DEFF. They also rank in the top 11 in all major opp. shooting percentage categories except one (EfG%), they rank 17th. With WSH inefficent and, basically, inabilities, on offense matched up against one of the top defenses in the league, at home, this should be a low scoring, possible blow, type of game.

BOL to everyone.

loungee · 02-14-12, 11:16 PM

LaMarcus Aldridge going out really hurt that first half POR play but the 2H play is looking good. The public is pounding the over, as it started at 94.5 and has since gone up to 96.5 in a matter of 5 minutes. The second half will be nothing like the first half, as POR will slow down the offense and play some defense. WSH will not continue to shoot 55% from 2 and 55.6% from the 3 the rest of the game. It was a fluke of a half, to say the least. This game should slow down immensely so I am going with

WSH/POR 2H U96.5 (2U) LOSS

celticsboy · 02-14-12, 11:18 PM

i like it

loungee · 02-14-12, 11:34 PM

Not my night in this POR game. 35 points in 5 minutes? Looking like I'll just hedge out of both bets come 4th quarter. Very frustrating day.

loungee · 02-14-12, 11:52 PM

I'm hedging out, and then some on this 4Q bet and, obviously, I'm doing a stupid thing by chasing (which I rarely ever do). It has been a brutal 2 weeks or so, after starting off pretty strong so if tomorrow, with 13 games going, I can't bounce back, I think a break is in order for a couple of days. BOL everyone.

WSH/POR 4Q O (5U) WIN

loungee · 02-14-12, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by loungee

I'm hedging out, and then some on this 4Q bet and, obviously, I'm doing a stupid thing by chasing (which I rarely ever do). It has been a brutal 2 weeks or so, after starting off pretty strong so if tomorrow, with 13 games going, I can't bounce back, I think a break is in order for a couple of days. BOL everyone.

WSH/POR 4q O (5U)

Realized I didn't put the total, which was 54.5