Loungee 2011-2012 Official Plays (Lets Make Some Money!)

loungee · 01-12-12, 03:14 PM

Also adding:

ORL -3 (2U)
Granted ORL is on a B2B and GSW is coming off a day off, one day removed from coming back from 20+ to beat MIA is OT, but I like ORL in this spot. They didn't have to expend to much energy beating POR last night, until the last 2 mins, and GSW will have no answer for Dwight Howard. Yes they can shoot, but with Curry out, and ORL with s couple of good shooters as well, I think ORL can cover, winning by 8.

MIL -8 (1U)
Under 177.5 (1U)

-8, at first glance, seems to be a bit high for MIL to be favored but then you take into consideration its against the worst team in the league, the Pistons. Yes, WSH is worst record wise, but these Pistons, as a team, are just awful. Painful to watch. MIL hung tough against SA last night, and although it was a tough loss for them, I think they bounce back here. That, and as I said, its DET. I see this as a low scoring game, as both teams are offensivly challenged. However, MIL has more fire power, which isn't to say much. I don't love this game, nor much of any games today, but I can see Mils D clamping down and their O shooting well enough to cover the spread. This pick is more about how bad DET is.. not how much faith I have in MIL. Ill play it for a small wager.

loungee · 01-12-12, 03:16 PM

Also adding:

ORL -3 (2U)
Granted ORL is on a B2B and GSW is coming off a day off, one day removed from coming back from 20+ to beat MIA is OT, but I like ORL in this spot. They didn't have to expend to much energy beating POR last night, until the last 2 mins, and GSW will have no answer for Dwight Howard. Yes they can shoot, but with Curry out, and ORL with s couple of good shooters as well, I think ORL can cover, winning by 8.

MIL -8 (1U)
Under 177.5 (1U)

-8, at first glance, seems to be a bit high for MIL to be favored but then you take into consideration its against the worst team in the league, the Pistons. Yes, WSH is worst record wise, but these Pistons, as a team, are just awful. Painful to watch. MIL hung tough against SA last night, and although it was a tough loss for them, I think they bounce back here. That, and as I said, its DET. I see this as a low scoring game, as both teams are offensivly challenged. However, MIL has more fire power, which isn't to say much. I don't love this game, nor much of any games today, but I can see Mils D clamping down and their O shooting well enough to cover the spread. This pick is more about how bad DET is.. not how much faith I have in MIL. Ill play it for a small wager.

loungee · 01-13-12, 10:07 AM

ATS Record: 3-0-0 (+6.0 Units)
O/U Record: 0-1-0 (-1.0 Units)
Overall Record: 3-1-0 (+5.0 Units)

ATL game was close for most of the way but in the ens, we got the blowout that was expected. MIL was no sunrise except for the amount of points scored. And despite Dwight Howard shooting blindfolded from the line all night, we covered. Overall a successful night. Picks to be posted soon.

loungee · 01-13-12, 01:35 PM

1/13 Picks

PHI -13 (4U)

WSH is just not a good team. They can't shoot, play D, work as a team. PHI, on the otherhand, is a good team, playing well together, well coached and I believe will win the Atlantic division. WSH played 3 games in 4 games days before having yesterday off and PHI had off last night after playing 3 in a row. WSH is ATS 1-4-0 ATS on the road while PHI is 4-0 ATS at home. There's plenty of stats, angles, and arguments I can throw out there but to me, this seems like a solid play. PHI by 22

LAL -10.5 (2U)

LAL are finally starting to play some good basketball, albeit the last two games have basically been the Kobe show. Bynum ia staying healthy, while putting up some gaudy numbers thus far this season. But then again, what would you e pest in a league depleted of good centers, evidenced that Kwame Brown had a starting job before injury and Jokiam Noah is the second leading vote getter for East centers while averaging 7 and 7 (and i'm a die hard Bulls fan). CLE has no answer for Bynum (Varaejo? No). Or Kobe. Or Steve Blake for that matter. CLE is a up and coming young team with Irving, but on the second night of a B2B after beating down PHO (it wasn't as close as the score indicates), they're not gonna be able to get up for LAL. It was a solid win for them last night. LAL by 17

ksnooksk · 01-13-12, 01:38 PM

Thanks....Looking good so far.

loungee · 01-13-12, 02:00 PM

CHI +2.5 (1U)

Im not overly confident in this but I think the Bulls have a good shot at keeping this close, and maybe even winning straight up. Being a Bulls fan has nothing to do with this pick, nor do I ever bet with my feelings. Im not even gonna throw out the fact that they won by 14 last game without Rose because it was against the lowly Wiz. Or that JL3 went off because that wont happen against a p etty good BOS D, albeit an older team. DRose said he's playing but he also said that before the Wsh game. After a lot of criticism on Chicago airwaves about Noah's poor year and Boozer hot and cold year, these two come out to prove a point on national television. BOS has a track record of playing good on the big stage and both teams are coming on off a day off, but the key to this game will be the benches, and Chicago's is far superior.. possibly the best in the league. Ill take the points and hope for a close game but don't be surprised if CHI wins straight up.

jjeagle · 01-13-12, 04:27 PM

Hey loungee. I like your writeups and you're off to a great start. Ima tail you. GL to us.

loungee · 01-13-12, 04:56 PM

Thanks guys. BOL. DRose looks to be playing but probably not a 100%. I still like CHI, with or without Rose, as well as the under 176.5. I missed it at 177.5 but this matchup has turned into quite the Rivalry since the epic 7 game series a few years back. I see this as a grind it out, slow moving game. It's a pretty low number but I only see one pd these teams hitting 80+ points. GL all.

jjeagle · 01-14-12, 01:08 AM

almost swept, lakers had a weak finish. we're still up for today though. Thanks for the picks.

loungee · 01-14-12, 11:22 AM

No problem. Hope everyone cashed some money. I went to bed LAL up 15and and I wake up to this message? No worries
man We had a pretty good night, going 3-1 and picking up 4 units (Correct me if im wrong at all.. Im a little buzzed/hungover so everything is a bit fuzzy here boys)

ATS Record:
O/U Record: 1-1-0 (0 Units)
Overall Record:5-1-0 (+10.0 Units)

Writeup will be coming in a bit. Just need to get my life together...

loungee · 01-14-12, 01:58 PM

Alright it looks like a pretty juicy card tonight, especially with football playoffs going too. Here is what I have so far:

IND -3.5 (3U)
I am actually surprised the spread is this low. BOS, a very old team, is coming off a tough game against a rival, the Bulls. Given their age and the amount of energy expended last night just to continously try and climb back into the game, I see the Pacers covering this rather easily. IND is a pretty good team, with pretty good weapons. Them and PHI are my two darkhorses to make some noise in the East this year. BOS away ATS record and IND home ATS record are identical so there isn't much going on there. Given BOS age and the second of a B2B against a good team, they'll lose.. by 9. IND is a good, young team and although BOS puts up a fight in the first half, IND runs away with it in the end. IND by 9

ATL -7.5 (2U)
This might be a strange pick to some considering ATL just lost Al Horford for the year, essentially, but the more i look and research this game, the more I like it. MIN is on the second of a B2B against a pretty good Hawks team. Granted, they lost Horford so now they are a above average team but I like this spot. Typically, teams playing their first game without their star fare really well for the simple notion that they know they have to try harder to win without said star. As stated before, this ATL team is not a proud or emotional team, but I see them coming out tonight to play. I don't thourghly trust ATL which is why I'm not wagering a ton on them, but I think they can beat this spread. ATL by 13

HOU +1.5 (1U)
Both of these teams are playing on a B2B and even though POR is a more talented team, I'm taking HOU. They're at home, where they are 4-0-0 ATS, while POR is 1-3-0 ATS on the road. After POR big win against the Clippers, they've struggled recently, failing to cover against the Magic and then a blowout, letdown against SA last night. On the otherhand, HOU is a underrated team. Luis Scola has to be the least talked about, least known player with his numbers in the league. He's my type of player: hard working, hustler who doesn't care what his team record is.. he goes out to play. Pair him with the likes of Kevin Martin and potential/future All-Star Kyle Lowry, and HOU keeps this close, and possibly wins straight up.

There will be a few more writeups soon, covering both NBA and NFL.

loungee · 01-14-12, 02:10 PM

UT -8 (1U)
I don't expect this game to be close in the least bit. UT is the better team across the board, no matter if you look at their stats, players or records. UTis rested after a night off while NJ played a up tempo game against PHO in which they won.. and pretty handily. I don't expect NJ to really get up and ready for this game, while the JAZZ would like to make a statement game, at home, against their former star Deron Williams and really put him in his place. UT by 14

loungee · 01-14-12, 02:31 PM

NE -13.5 (1U)
Even though when people bet against Jesus.. er.. Tim Tebow, they lose, I'm taking the Pats. Nevermind the fact that the Pats just blew them out weeks ago; nevermind the fact that the Broncos just beat the almighty Pittsburgh Steelers; nevermind the fact that the Pats haven't won a playoff game since 2007. I'm taking the Pats simply because of two words: Tom Brady. He is top 3 QB's of all time. He's picked apart better defenses this year then what the Broncos will be throwing at him. He misses being the golden boy that everyone talks about. He would love nothing better then to absolutely destroy Jesus and make a statement because of the stated third fact: he hasn't won a playoff game since 2007. There's not a ton of angles to support this.. at least not what i could find (but I didn't look hard). I'm going with this pick based on my gut and my gut says NE 45 DEN 17

NO/SF O 46.5 (1U)
I actually like SF here for the points but not enough to wager on. And they are currently my second favorite team behind Da Bears, of course. But that's beside the point. I like this over for a couple of reasons: NO can score, theres no doubt about that. But don't count out SF either, as far as scoring. Yes, they've been a FG kicking machine this year but I think people give Gregg Williams a little to much credit as far as defense. Yes, he's good. Yes, he's smart. But a tad overrated. The number is a bit high but I can see them both putting up 20+ points. I am the least confident in this pick then all others but enough to wager a unit on it. Gambling 101 says if you're not confident, don't wager or guess. But after a good night last night, i'm feelings a bit lucky. Tail this at your own risk.

BOL to all.

jjeagle · 01-14-12, 03:32 PM

GL to us again. tailing your NBA picks.

RyDogg · 01-14-12, 06:55 PM

a fellow bears fan, i like it! Following you today as well, you're off to a nice start, bol

loungee · 01-14-12, 08:02 PM

Off to a good start so far, with the NO/SF over hitting, as well as the IND game looking promising. There will be one or two more plays for the later games so check back later.

loungee · 01-14-12, 10:22 PM

ATS Record: 5-1-0 (+9.00 Units)
O/U Record: 1-1-0 (0 Units)
Overall Record:6-2-0 (+9.0 Units)

Recap as of 9:00 CT for 1/14 games:

IND -3.5 (3U) WIN
Not much to say about this game. It was everything I expected it to be and more. Watching the C's struggle is a beautiful thing for me. Put this in the win column.

ATL -8 (2U) LOSS
This was a frustrating game to watch. The Hawks just did not come to play. They were being blown out from the beginning of the game, looking disinterested at times, and yet still come back to win. I rode their tails from the night before's win, but ATL is slowly becoming a team I will be adding to the list titled "Do NOT Bet At ALL!" with their inconsistency and especially now with the loss of Horford.

NO/SF O 46.5 (1U) WIN
Again, not much to say. Granted we didn't get the cover until 2 minutes left in the game, but essentially (at least in my head) we had this over wrapped up as soon as the 49ers jumped out to a 17-0 lead. After that hot start, i felt the bet was safe given NO offensive juggernaut.

HOU +1.5 (1U)
This play was looking good the entire game until the start of this writeup: 4th Quarter, 4:07 left and POR leading 93-92. HOU was leading a majority of the game, if not the entire game, up until this point. It would be a frustrating loss.

UT -8 (1U)
At the half, the Jazz are up by 17. Barring some epic collaspe by the Jazz, this one is looking quite safe.

NE -13.5 (1U)
The thing that makes me mad most about this bet is I didn't put more units on it. It's 42-7 as of right now and I don't see any type of backdoor cover, comeback victory or a divine intervention for Jesus Tebow. Looking back at when I made this selection, I don't know why I didn't put more units on it. I was confident in it and very happy getting this number so why not add a few more. I don't know. Perhaps I was still drunk from last night. Either way, this one is looking pretty good too.

Adding for Late Game:
LAL +2.5 (1U)
LAL/LAC U188.5 (2U)
I really see this being a close game throughout, with Kobe taking over in the 4th. This should be a great showdown between Kobe and CP3, while I expect Kobe to get the best of him. I like this under a bit more than the points for LAL because these are not the Lakers of the past. They seem to be a more slow moving, methodical team trying to control the tempo and the game because of their ever growing age, as well as trying to use Bynum down low more. I don't expect either team to hit 90.

loungee · 01-15-12, 12:03 AM

[COLOR=#000000 !important]ATS Record: 9-2-0 (+13.00 Units)
O/U Record: 2-1-0 (+1.00 Units)
Overall Record: 11-3-0 (+14.0 Units)

Recap for 1/14 games and Updated Records:

IND -3.5 (3U) WIN
Not much to say about this game. It was everything I expected it to be and more. Watching the C's struggle is a beautiful thing for me. Put this in the win column.

ATL -8 (2U) LOSS
This was a frustrating game to watch. The Hawks just did not come to play. They were being blown out from the beginning of the game, looking disinterested at times, and yet still come back to win. I rode their tails from the night before's win, but ATL is slowly becoming a team I will be adding to the list titled "Do NOT Bet At ALL!" with their inconsistency and especially now with the loss of Horford.

NO/SF O 46.5 (1U) WIN
Again, not much to say. Granted we didn't get the cover until 2 minutes left in the game, but essentially (at least in my head) we had this over wrapped up as soon as the 49ers jumped out to a 17-0 lead. After that hot start, i felt the bet was safe given NO offensive juggernaut.

HOU +1.5 (1U) WIN
Well the possible frustrating loss turned into a nice W.

UT -8 (1U) WIN
At the half, the Jazz are up by 17. Barring some epic collaspe by the Jazz, this one is looking quite safe.

NE -13.5 (1U) WIN
Wasn't much of a game from start to finish. I hope the rest of the NFL playoffs resemble the 49ers/Saints game then this one. Although it was a nice sight to watch Tebow get Tebowed.

[/COLOR][COLOR=#000000 !important]LAL +2.5 (1U) PENDING
LAL/LAC U188.5 (2U) PENDING
[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Hope everyone cashed in on these.
[/COLOR]

loungee · 01-15-12, 01:30 AM

ATS Record: 9-3-0 (+12.00 Units)
O/U Record: 2-2-0 (-1.00 Units)
Overall Record: 11-3-0 (+11.0 Units)

Recap for 1/14 games and Updated Records:

IND -3.5 (3U) WIN
Not much to say about this game. It was everything I expected it to be and more. Watching the C's struggle is a beautiful thing for me. Put this in the win column.

ATL -8 (2U) LOSS
This was a frustrating game to watch. The Hawks just did not come to play. They were being blown out from the beginning of the game, looking disinterested at times, and yet still come back to win. I rode their tails from the night before's win, but ATL is slowly becoming a team I will be adding to the list titled "Do NOT Bet At ALL!" with their inconsistency and especially now with the loss of Horford.

NO/SF O 46.5 (1U) WIN
Again, not much to say. Granted we didn't get the cover until 2 minutes left in the game, but essentially (at least in my head) we had this over wrapped up as soon as the 49ers jumped out to a 17-0 lead. After that hot start, i felt the bet was safe given NO offensive juggernaut.

HOU +1.5 (1U) WIN
Well the possible frustrating loss turned into a nice W.

UT -8 (1U) WIN
At the half, the Jazz are up by 17. Barring some epic collaspe by the Jazz, this one is looking quite safe.

NE -13.5 (1U) WIN
Wasn't much of a game from start to finish. I hope the rest of the NFL playoffs resemble the 49ers/Saints game then this one. Although it was a nice sight to watch Tebow get Tebowed.

LAL +2.5 (1U) LOSS
LAL/LAC U188.5 (2U) LOSS

Well it was a good night until I got sucked into the LAL/LAC game, trying to chase a little more money. Oh well. Slim card for tomorrow, as far as basketball, but there will be a few plays. Here's what I've got so far:

Plays for 1/15

HOU +7.5 (1U)
HOU/BAL, O 36.5 (1U)

I see this game remaining close throughout. BAL hasn't fared well as big favorites (6 or more points) this year, going 2-6. This is the playoffs and this is the NFL: the Texans have the firepower to keep up with BAL throughout and both offenses should be able to score above 36.5. I can see this score being right around BAL 24 HOU 20

NYG +7.5 (1U)
NYG/GB, O 53 (2U)

A lot of people are high on the New York Giants, especially after that defilement of the Falcons last week. They are a better good team, with pretty good weapons surrounding Manning (Jacobs/Bradshaw, Nicks, Cruz, Ballard) as well as some studs on D. I wouldn't be shocked if NYG actually wins this straight up but I'd rather just take the points and the money. Both of these offenses are capable of piling up points, so the over should not be a problem to hit. I just don't see Green Bay's D being able to clamp down or hinder the NYG offense, which is why I see this game being close. GB 35 NYG 31

The NBA has a small card going tomorrow, with only three games scheduled. I'll look around and see if I want to play any of them but for now, these are what I'm going with. BOL

Stumbled upon this line as well and thought it was to good to pass up:
HOU/BAL 1Q O 7 (3U)
I really don't see how between these two teams, in 15:00, they don't score at least 7 points in the first quarter. It is just mind boogling to me if they don't. And I got the odds at +105

jjeagle · 01-15-12, 01:34 AM

Thank you again. followed all your NBA picks except for the last 2 LAL/LAC picks. i'm +3 units today

loungee · 01-15-12, 01:49 AM

Good to hear and glad I could help. I'm glad you didn't tail me on the Battle for LA game, as I wasn't really thinking clearly on those picks and just chasing at that point. Those late game/picks always come back to bite me so I'm gonna try to make my picks early and leave it be. BOL the rest of the way.

ksnooksk · 01-15-12, 07:05 AM

Looking good.....

painter10 · 01-15-12, 07:39 AM

thanks for the post n write up man keep up the good work!!

loungee · 01-15-12, 11:39 AM

GSW +4.5 (1U)
GSW is on their second game of a four road games in five nights, and they face the lowly Pistons. DET is 2-4 at home ATS as they GSW are 2-2 on the road ATS. GSW will be again without Steph Curry as this is looking like it will be a lingering issue all year and possibly for his career. Having said that, DET isn't going to score enough points to keep up with GSW. WIthout Curry, GSW isn't as potent on the offensive end, but they can still run and gun with Monta Ellis. DET blew out the Bobcats who stomped GSW. So you're saying with this spread that DET is a better team then GSW? I can't buy it. They have some nice pieces in Monroe, Bynum, Stuckey and Knight, but I see GSW keeping it close and actually winning straight up.

DEN -10.5 (2U)
DEN had the night off last night, while UT played in a route against NJN and speant the night traveling across country. I really like taking teams that are coming off a days rest and playing a team who spent the night before playing and traveling. And on top of that, DEN is a better team then UT, and haven't played B2B games since Jan 1/2, which means they've been nothing but rested. I see this staying close midway through the second, and getting ugly in a hurry.

jjeagle · 01-15-12, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by loungee

Stumbled upon this line as well and thought it was to good to pass up:
HOU/BAL 1Q O 7 (3U)
I really don't see how between these two teams, in 15:00, they don't score at least 7 points in the first quarter. It is just mind boogling to me if they don't. And I got the odds at +105

loungee · 01-15-12, 08:04 PM

ATS Record: 12-4-0 (+13.00 Units)
O/U Record: 4-3-0 (+3.00 Units)
Overall Record: 16-7-0 (+16.0 Units)

Recap so far of Plays for 1/15

HOU +7.5 (1U) WIN
HOU/BAL, O 36.5 (1U) LOSS

With 4:56 to go in the second quarter, we needed one touchdown to hit the over. ONE TOUCHDOWN with almost 35 minutes of game time to go and we hit it. What do we get? One freakin field goal. A bit frustrating, but on to the next one.

NYG +7.5 (1U) WIN
Like I said, don't be surprised if the Giants won straight up, as they did. And I doubt anyone was really that surprised. I put a small wager on NYG ML at the last minute but didn't have time to add it to the card.

NYG/GB, O 53 (2U) WIN
Theres no way I'm coming on here, boasting about hitting this pick because it wasn't looking good by the end of the 3rd quarter. We needed three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and by the grace of God (a Packer turnovers), we hit this pretty nicely. I'm gonna be happy it hit and move on, because I got lucky with this one.

HOU/BAL 1Q O 7 (3U) WIN
I really don't see how between these two teams, in 15:00, they don't score at least 7 points in the first quarter. It is just mind boogling to me if they don't. And I got the odds at +105

GSW +4.5 (1U) WIN
DET is god awful. They should never be favored in a game.. ever!

DEN -10.5 (2U) LOSS
DEN had the night off last night, while UT played in a route against NJN and speant the night traveling across country. I really like taking teams that are coming off a days rest and playing a team who spent the night before playing and traveling. And on top of that, DEN is a better team then UT, and haven't played B2B games since Jan 1/2, which means they've been nothing but rested. I see this staying close midway through the second, and getting ugly in a hurry.

jjeagle · 01-15-12, 11:47 PM

great day of winning

ksnooksk · 01-15-12, 11:50 PM

Nice day man.

I guess Vegas was expecting everyone to be on the Nuggets since they just beat Miami on national tv.

No biggie.

manutd19 · 01-15-12, 11:57 PM

Nice

IllyPhilly[DOC] · 01-16-12, 12:07 AM

Very nice man Keep it up

loungee · 01-16-12, 09:44 AM

Well I don't have a ton of time for writeup for the early games right now so im going to post my picks and try to get the writeup up on my lunchbreak, which is 12:00 CST. Early games:

CHI/MEM, U178 (2U) LOSS
PHI -9, (1U) WIN

Im really tempted on taking CHI -4-2 because they're a far superior team, a great D and are well rested. I think those outweigh the simple fact that this is a revenge game for MEM, and not a regular revenge game: MEM got blown out by 40. Official play soon.

loungee · 01-16-12, 12:46 PM

Chi -4 (1u) LOSS
chi/mem 1q, u46 (1u) LOSS

Total thus far today: -3.00U

loungee · 01-16-12, 05:09 PM

Well.. not a good start to the day. This is exactly why I don't like analyzing or making picks on the fly (from my phone) or doing it at work. I made some unofficial plays (ORL -2, MIL/PHI 1Q O 46, CHI/MEM 2Q O 45) so I actually did make money this morning/afternoon, but since I didn't post them, I won't count these for my units. So, officially, as far as record and units on here, it's been a shitty day. But i will end up having a positive night. I just hate having days where I lose one or two, and so far, not good. Picks for the remaining games to be posted soon. I've always found a lot of value in 1Q and 2Q bets in the last two days so I will be dipping into those too. Lastly, I would've altered my bets a bit had I known the Bulls were going to pull Rose today. But I can't bitch. That's gambling. Picks coming soon.

jjeagle · 01-16-12, 05:13 PM

I tailed your picks and LTA's combined so Its all good. Keep em coming.