Loungee 2011-2012 Official Plays (Lets Make Some Money!)

[loungee]

ATS Record: 26-18-0 (+3.00 Units) (59%)
O/U Record: 26-22-1 (+18.00 Units) (54%)
Overall Record: 52-40-1 (+21.0 Units) (57%)

I don't have a ton of time for indepth writeups today but I'll post the basic and important aspects of each play. BOL to all.


SA/DAL, O188 (2U) WIN
I'd like to break this play down by each team first. SA is the 5th highest scoring team in the league, averaging 98.5 PPG, while DAL is only 18th with 93 PPG. Right there gives us 191.5 points scored in this game, which means if the O/U is set at 188, the defenses must be pretty good. Not even close. While DAL is a very good 4th in the league with 89.8 PPG (90.2 at home), SA is 17th with 95.3 PPG. On the road, they're abysmal, giving up 102.4 PPG which is almost a full 13 points more per game on the road then at home. Wth every SA O/U writeup I have done this year when they are on the road, I have mentioned this and I mentioned it again for a good reason: this tells me when on the road, SA has absolutely no interest in playing defense. They wanna run the score up, jack up shots while using little energy and get out of there. Stats and angles are there. Many more to go into but just take the over.


CHI +4.5 (2U) WIN
Just like IND did to CHI earlier this week (avenge last seasons playoff losses), CHI does the same. They're tougher then MIA, they've got a better bench, they're a better rebounding team, better blocking, they turnover the ball less, make better passes (assists are higher), they just aren't a fouling team (second least in the league), and the better coach. Although MIA has "those 3," we've seen that it doesn't always translate to wins. They've got nice individual defenders, but as a team defensively, they're nothing what they were last year. If Deng does play, him and Wade would be a wash, given they both won't be a 100%. The key to this game will be Boozer. If he can continue to score 20+ like he has been, and Rip hit's his shots, CHI should keep this close, and even win this outright.


CHI/MIA, U191 (2U) WIN
MIA is going to come out running, trying to keep the pace uptempo, showing they are still the best team in the East after the 4-1 series win against CHI last year. CHI has something else in mind. This is going to be a slow moving, methodical game and given that it is a national televised, primetime-type of game, it's going to be all about execution.


IND +3 (1U) WIN
Revenge game for getting blown out earlier by ORL. ORL has looked truly awful the past two weeks. In their last 3 losses, they've scored 67, 56 and 83 (which was a miracle). The last time they scored above 90 was their win against this very IND team. As stated earlier, this is a classic revenge game. IND is a prideful, tough, gritty team who will come into ORL and possibly win straight up. ORL is no longer an automatic top 4 team in the east anymore, with CHI, MIA, PHI taking the first three, and ATL/IND/BOS/ORL fighting for the fourth seed. I think IND actually goes and wins this.


SA +5.5 (1U) WIN
DAL is without Dirk (oops!), has a (apparently) out of shape, slow-moving Lamar Odom, who is set to sit out next like Dirk and an overall aging team. SA isn't a ton much younger but they've drafted and signed well, and have a pretty deep bench. I don't think DAL is going to keep up with SA's road run-and-gun style.

AFC/NFC, O73.5 (1U) WIN
Do what you would like with this pick, but given the following facts, the over should hit: it's an all star game, which means no defense will be played; the average points scored by the winning team over the last 6(?) Pro Bowls was 44; and it's an all star game.. no defense will be played. I'm throwing a little money on it but nothing out of hand.

LAC/DEN, O205 (2U) WIN
I was hoping this number would come down more, as it started at 204, went all the way up to 206.5 and now back down to 205. Anyways, DEN is #1 in scoring, while LAC is 9th. DEN scores the more on the road (108.2) then at home (103.3), while LAC scores more at home (99.2) then they do on the road (92.4). Both of these teams are prolific offensive scoring teams, especially now with Paul back, leading the charge on the Clip side. What I like even more about this play then their offensive stats, is their defensive stats. They both rank in the bottom 10 in allowed points, while DEN is 24th on the road and LAC is 17th at home. These are both greaet offenses and bad defenses. Shooting percentage wise, they're both top 10 in shooting %, eFG%, 2pt%, and true shooting %. Defensively, DEN is near the bottom in all of those categories as far as opp. LAC on an average defensive team, but with DEN uptempo, shoot, shoot, shoot offense, LAC is going to have to keep up with them, and that'll be easy against this bad DEN D.

[loungee]

This CHI/MIA U is not looking good, but these refs aren't helping the situation. They have been calling some ticky tack fouls. There have been 31 fouls in the game so far, and there is still nearly 5 minutes left to go in the third quarter. Maybe I should start looking at ref assignments and which way they've tended to lean throughout their careers, whether over or under. Anyone know a website you can check that out, ref assignments and what their over/under records are? Thanks in advance.

[loungee]

Good start to the day, and the other plays aren't looking half bad. Except of course SA +5.5. BOL

[loungee]

Good start to the day, and the other plays aren't looking half bad. Except of course SA +5.5. BOL

As much as I like winning money (and I do very much so), being a die-hard Bulls fan, I would've rathed they won that game outright. I'm definetly not complaining about the wins, but I sure hate the Heat. It is a good sign that they could hang in there with their backup PG out, their best defender (and second best player) out and Boozer shooting like a blind 11 year old playing basketball for the first time.

[loungee]

A nice, clean sweep for today's action, which is exactly what we needed. We went 7-0, adding 11 units to the bankroll, which is by far the best day I've had this year. Hope everyone else cashed big today as well. Working on the plays for tomorrow already, with a couple of leans right now, depending on the lines of couse. Early leans are:
OKC -??
HOU -??
SA/MEM O190
CHI/WSH O??

As of the end of the night, 1/29
ATS Record: 29-18-0 (+7.00 Units) (62%)
O/U Record: 30-22-1 (+25.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 59-40-1 (+32.0 Units) (60%)

[loungee]

ATS Record: 29-18-0 (+7.00 Units) (62%)
O/U Record: 30-22-1 (+25.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 59-40-1 (+32.0 Units) (60%)

I'm actually liking quite a few favorites tonight, which doesn't happen very often. There's a few games that are being bet by the public heavy, which I normally like to fade, but I'm gonna stick with my gut instincts.

SA +6 (3U) WIN
This is by far my play of the night. I was a little surprised to see the line at -6 MEM. Yes, I expected MEM to be favored, but maybe by 2.5-3.5 points. Not 6. I know SA played last night but if you paid any attention to the game or watched it, with 3:27 left in the third quarter, Tony Parker was the last of the SA starters to leave the game, and from that point forward, none of them returned. Pops rolled with the benched all of the 4th and OT. That's huge. The SA starters were able to rest for, basically, 2 full quarters and then traveled last night. With that added rest (given it's not a complete day off or anything), SA comes out firing, again, and keeps this game close. MEM has been playing great ball in the abscence of ZBo, but I honestly don't see anyway SA doesn't keep this game close.

OKC -2 (3U) LOSS
The Clips have been playing well this season, especially ATS, being 10-7 (8-3 at home). Things are starting to come together with Paul back, and running the show. But this is a bad spot for them. The public is on OKC for 72%, but the line moved from -2.5 to -2? A little odd. OKC hasn't actually been great at covering the spreads this year, but as of late (last 10), they're 8-2, coming on strong, as well as 5-1 in their last 6 away games ATS. This team is dangerous, probably the best team in the league, and are hitting on all cylinders. Add in the fact they are on two days rest and LAC are playing a B2B (and in the middle of 4 games in 5 days), I can see them putting up a little fight, but not enough. They still have UT and DEN in the next 3 days, which are both more winnable then this one.

HOU -6.5 (2U) LOSS
I can't say much about HOU I haven't already said. Really nice team, some outstanding talent, and a really good coach. HOU has been a covering machine at home (8-3), in their last 10 (7-3), and have been respectable overall at 12-8. Their last 3 wins (NYK, WSH and this very same MIN team) have been by an average of a little more than 18 points. I understand the "revenge" factor that I sometime use and also, sometimes discredit. Like I've said before, the revenge factor (for me at least) usually only comes into play when both teams are at least average, if not, above average teams (.500 or better). MIN has a nice thing going right now with Love, Rubio and Williams but with J.J. Barea and Darko Milicic (decent season) out, and Kevin Martin returning for the Rockets, 7 points shouldn't be a problem.

PHI -7.5 (1U) LOSS
What is there to say about these two teams that hasn't already been said: ORL has been terrible of lately, and you can attribute that to mostly all the Dwight Howard trade talk. what teammates would want to bust their ass and win games, standing next to a man, who has made it clear that they aren't good enough to win games, let alone championships? ORL's last four losses have been by an average of 21.5 points! And the two that were at home were by a combined 29 points. Let's not forget that they have been bad at covering spreads this year, despite their overall record being 10-10. I'm talking about as of late. They're 1-4 in their last 5 and 4-6 in their last 10. They lost to NO by twenty freankin six for Christs sake. PHI, on the other hand, has been a cash cow this year, covering 14 of their 20 games. At home, they're 10-2 and in their last 10, they're 7-3. PHI is an astounding 11-1 when favored by 7 points or more this year. ORL is in disarray, PHI is hitting all the right spots. Personally, I am surprised the line was only 7.5, as I think the books are overvaluing ORL here for whatever reason. I would like to make more of a play on this, but ORL is too inconsistent, and they very well could come out, shooting 65% in the game. But I like it enough to make a play.

MIL -7 (1U) WIN
It's DET.. on the road.. and it's DET. MIL has covered 5 of their last 6, as DET has only covered 3 of their last 9. MIL has been playing pretty well since losing Bogut, almost winning straight up against CHI and beating down the LAL. There isn't much to like about this DET team, and given the fact MIL has been rolling lately, I'll take MIL. This could get ugly.

[loungee]

68% of the public on OKC, yet the spread dropped from -2 to -1.5. Don't like that.

[loungee]

Not a good follwup to last nights sweep. Went 2-3, -2.00 units. I broke even with my bankroll by taking the 2H O99.5 and OKC -5.5, but I didn't make them offical, so they won't count here.

Record at the end of the day, 1/30
ATS Record: 31-21-0 (+5.00 Units) (60%)
O/U Record: 30-22-1 (+25.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 61-43-1 (+30.0 Units) (59%)

Early leans for tomorrow are:
BOS/CLE, U178
NYK -??
SAC/GSW, O199
DEN -??
NJN +9.5

[loungee]

As you can tell, I went against quite a bit of my leans after some research and running a few things thru my system.

Writeups in a bit.

DEN/MEM, O200.5 (2U) LOSS
This play is an "against-the-system" play, but I'm feeling pretty good about it. DEN is scoring at will on the road (108.1) as well as giving up a ton on the road (101.5). Although MEM is an above average defense, at home especially, they are susceptible to giving up a lot of points, which is evident in the at home scoring average for the road teams (102.3). Everything has already been said about DEN's offense: top 3 in just about every scoring statistical category, and their defense is bottom five, which is a good start to an over. Like stated before, MEM does has a solid D, but they're coming off a B2B (and 4th in 6 days), and DEN just has to potent an offense. MEM is average, as far as scoring wise, but against this bad DEN defense, they should be able to put up 90+ points. Mix in the fact that DEN is playing their 4th game in 7 days, and you've got yourselves a nice over.

DET +9 (2U) LOSS
I hate breaking my own rule by taking points with the "Bottom 3," but I'm just liking DET in this spot. With Gordon, Bynum and Charlie all out for this entire roadtrip, I expect the team to rally, knowing they're going to have to shoot and play team ball (which will be easier without Gordon and Charlie) in order to keep it close, put up a fight and try and steal a win. The NYK, on the other hand, are awful this year. I'm not going to repeat the same things people on here have been saying and what I've been saying for 2 weeks. Melo is a game-time decision, and even with him, this isn't a team. This is a bunch of players on the court together. They don't work well together, and I expect DET to keep this close enough to cover.

SAC/GSW, U199 (1U) WIN
First off, my system gives us a good value here, 5.55 points under, so that's a good start. Obviously, GSW is a top 10 scoring offense in a lot of categories, including points per game and all the four major shooting % categories. SAC, on the otherhand, is as bad on offense as teams the likes of CHA, WSH and DET, and you can pretty much lump them in as the worst teams in the league. Both defenses are bottom 10 in my categories, but if an offense can't score period, as bad as the defense is, it's not going to make a ton of difference. All the statistics for both teams tend to lean towards the under, and given that SAC is coming in on 2 days off and GSW with 3 days off, I'll expect enough defense to be mustered to keep this score below 199.

NJN +10 (1U) WIN
I held of on taking it at +9.5 last night because I figured the public would pound IND, and it did. The line went up to +10, so I took it there. I didn't want to get to greedy. NJN have been playing some solid ball lately, covering 3 of their last 5, including a straight up win against PHI. IND is a good, gritty team, but NJN should be able to keep this within arms reach throughout the game. Both are pretty evenly matched when it comes to ATS situational trends regarding this game, but going with my gut, I'll take NJN with the points.

ATL/TOR, O177.5 (1U) LOSS
Another nice system play, where my system gives us 5.65 points of value on the over. Both of these defenses are top 10 defenses statistically in the NBA (which was a little surprising as far as TOR goes for me). ATL has been keeping it together without Horford pretty nicely, maintaining a 10 top offense. ANd although both of these defenses are pretty solid, both teams are playing their 4th game in 7 days, and this O/U is just to low to pass up.

[loungee]

as you can tell, i went against quite a bit of my leans after some research and running a few things thru my system.

Writeups in a bit.

den/mem, o200.5 (2u)
this play is an "against-the-system" play, but i'm feeling pretty good about it. Den is scoring at will on the road (108.1) as well as giving up a ton on the road (101.5). Although mem is an above average defense, at home especially, they are susceptible to giving up a lot of points, which is evident in the at home scoring average for the road teams (102.3). Everything has already been said about den's offense: Top 3 in just about every scoring statistical category, and their defense is bottom five, which is a good start to an over. Like stated before, mem does has a solid d, but they're coming off a b2b (and 4th in 6 days), and den just has to potent an offense. Mem is average, as far as scoring wise, but against this bad den defense, they should be able to put up 90+ points. Mix in the fact that den is playing their 4th game in 7 days, and you've got yourselves a nice over.

det +9 (2u)
i hate breaking my own rule by taking points with the "bottom 3," but i'm just liking det in this spot. With gordon, bynum and charlie all out for this entire roadtrip, i expect the team to rally, knowing they're going to have to shoot and play team ball (which will be easier without gordon and charlie) in order to keep it close, put up a fight and try and steal a win. The nyk, on the other hand, are awful this year. I'm not going to repeat the same things people on here have been saying and what i've been saying for 2 weeks. Melo is a game-time decision, and even with him, this isn't a team. This is a bunch of players on the court together. They don't work well together, and i expect det to keep this close enough to cover.

sac/gsw, u199 (1u)
first off, my system gives us a good value here, 5.55 points under, so that's a good start. Obviously, gsw is a top 10 scoring offense in a lot of categories, including points per game and all the four major shooting % categories. Sac, on the otherhand, is as bad on offense as teams the likes of cha, wsh and det, and you can pretty much lump them in as the worst teams in the league. Both defenses are bottom 10 in my categories, but if an offense can't score period, as bad as the defense is, it's not going to make a ton of difference. All the statistics for both teams tend to lean towards the under, and given that sac is coming in on 2 days off and gsw with 3 days off, i'll expect enough defense to be mustered to keep this score below 199.

njn +10 (1u)
i held of on taking it at +9.5 last night because i figured the public would pound ind, and it did. The line went up to +10, so i took it there. I didn't want to get to greedy. Njn have been playing some solid ball lately, covering 3 of their last 5, including a straight up win against phi. Ind is a good, gritty team, but njn should be able to keep this within arms reach throughout the game. Both are pretty evenly matched when it comes to ats situational trends regarding this game, but going with my gut, i'll take njn with the points.

atl/tor, o178.5 (1u)
another nice system play, where my system gives us 5.65 points of value on the over. Both of these defenses are top 10 defenses statistically in the nba (which was a little surprising as far as tor goes for me). Atl has been keeping it together without horford pretty nicely, maintaining a 10 top offense. And although both of these defenses are pretty solid, both teams are playing their 4th game in 7 days, and this o/u is just to low to pass up.

atl/tor, 1h o88 (1u) WIN
den/mem, 1h o101 (1u) LOSS

[loungee]

Well, that'll teach me to go against one of my basic rules and bet with the "Bottom 3." I'm taking the LAL against one of those B3 in the late game. And that ATL game was just bogus. 95 points in the first half and they DON'T go over 178.5? One basket in 30 seconds and they couldn't get it? Tough one there.

LAL -12.5 (3U) WIN

[loungee]

lal -1.5 2h (2u) WIN
sac +5.5 2h (1u) WIN

[sstrunks52005]

lal 2h, -1.5 (2u)

think they're going to win by 26?

[loungee]

think they're going to win by 26?

Even better... 33. That 4th quarter cashed both the LAL bets.

[loungee]

Today went 6-4 and added +3.00 units. The two late games made it a positive day for today, and I'll take that any day of the week.

Record at the end of the day, 1/31
ATS Record: 35-22-0 (+10.00 Units) (61%)
O/U Record: 32-25-1 (+23.00 Units) (56%)
Overall Record: 67-47-1 (+33.0 Units) (59%)

A few early leans for tomorrow:
NJN -7
POR -15
OKC/DAL, U197.5
HOU +5
OKC +1.5
WSH/ORL, U183

[william-dil]

Like a lot your thread !
Hard work, great analysis and strong record

Keep your good work, very appreciate

[loungee]

Like a lot your thread !
Hard work, great analysis and strong record

Keep your good work, very appreciate

Thank you very much. It's very appreciated. Plays and writeups will be up in the next 30 minutes or so.

[loungee]

Big, juicy card today.. well at least plays that I like. BOL to all.

CHA TT U84 (3U) WIN
I really wanted to take POR -15 in this spot because CHA is among the "Bottom 3," POR is a good defense, an even better defense at home and CHA is a terrible team, especially with all their injuries. However, there are very fews teams in this league that I can trust with a -13.5/-14 point spread, and those are: CHI, PHI, and sometimes DEN and MIA. CHI and PHI because of their coaches and coaching style, which is simply put the foot on the gas pedal and never give up until the end. Collins and Thibs do not allow dogging and letting up when their teams are up big. I'm just not sold on POR covering this, because of a backdoor cover by CHA when POR starters are sitting. I do buy, however, POR's D and the absolute mess and piss poor offense that is the Bobcats. POR's D is good enough to keep this CHA team down, and without Batum, the total scoring of this whole game down, as POR isn't going to take CHA seriously. I'd be surprised if CHA scores over 75.

WSH/ORL, U185 (2U) LOSS
These two teams quite very well be the two most offensively challenged teams in the league, as of late. The only time WSH has scored over 90 in their last 5 games, was against CHA (and let's face it, a JV team could score 90 against CHA). They scored 88, 76, 83 against, albeit, good defensive teams like PHI and CHI, but don't forget, ORL is still a good defensive team, at least statistically. ORL's problem is they just can't score. In ORL last 5 games (take out the IND fluke game), and they've scored 69, 85, 67, 83, and 56, which is an average of 72!! Ridiclious. WSH is 1-4 (O/U) in their last 5 while ORL is 2-2-1. WSH is 3-6 on the road while ORL is 2-7 at home. Even if ORL has a hot game and scores over 90, they're defense is still 8th in PPG, 12th in DEFF, while being top 15 in defensive shooting % categories. ORL's average defense verus WSH horrific offense tells me to go under. That, and the mess both teams are when it comes to scoring.

OKC +1.5 (2U) WIN
This one was almost a coin flip, with both teams records being very similiar in many categories, including overall, last 5/10, home/away and last 5 home/away. OKC is playing their 3rd in 6, while DAL is playing their 4th in 6. If you boil it down to all things being even, I like OKC here for a couple of reasons. They are more talented team, are only missing Thabo, are coming off an embrassing loss on the road to LAC and I think they come out running, trying to put down the defending champions and, basically, embrass them. DAL hasn't really had a real test since 1/16 and 1/18, when they played the LAL and LAC, respectively. And since those two games, they've gone 4-3, alternating wins and losses, to inferior competition, which includes teams like PHO twice, MINN, and NO, where they went 2-2 ATS. OKC is by far the best team they've faced since the LAC, and although they might come out up and ready, OKC is in a good spot to put them down and make a HUGE statement regarding the West, if they haven't already done so. I think OKC losing to the LAC by 12 actually helped them for this game, because it showed they can't just show up and expect to beat everyone. They have to bring their best effort and here they will.

NJN -6.5 (1U) LOSS
I'm a bit cautious of this line, as 75% of the public is on the NJN, yet the line dropped from -7 to -6.5. This was going to be at least a 2 unit play, maybe 3, but with the line movement, I'm dropping it down to one. Will DET bone me on back to back nights? Doubtful. NJN have been quietly putting together a pretty good ATS record this year, being .500 overall, in conference, and in their last 10 games. And although their at home ATS record is far from impressive (3-5), DET's record in every angle and light is terrible. They are 6-16-1 overall, while being 4-11-1 in conference, 1-3-1 in their last 5, 3-6-1 in their last 10 and 2-10 on the road. They haven't covered both their last four games or their last four road games. Injury wise, DET still doesn't have Gordon, Charlie and Bynum, while NJN will be without Okur, Stevenson and Brooks. But as long as they have Deron Williams, this is a pretty good spot. Both teams are on a B2B, but for DET, they are playing their 6th game in 8 days, and in the middle of a total of 8 games in 11 days. They're gonna be gassed, and won't have much fight in them. NJN are playing their 4th in 6 themselves, but they've got more talent, less important injuries, are at home and, well, it's DET. They're apart of the B3. So i like NJN pretty nicely here.

MIL +6.5 (1U) WIN
Proceed with this pick with caution! After that disclaimer, I think this is a perfect spot for MIL to cover this. The reason for the disclaimer, however, is this is a revenge spot for MIA, as MIL beat them, in MIA, by 9 on Jan. 22nd, so that is in the back of my mind. But I like it enough to put 1 unit on it and here's why: aside from that part, everything else points to MIL. First of all, MIA is constantly playing down to their competition, failing to cover against NYK, DET, CLE, GSW and ATL all in this month. All teams below MIA's talent level. But yet they have no problem covering against the likes of LAL, SAS, IND and PHI, all good teams. I don't see them taking MIL very seriously, especially on the road, where they are 3-6 ATS and have PHI, the third best team in the East, looming ahead. Not to mention they are 9-12 overall, 1-4 in their last 5 and 5-8 in the conference. Part of the reason why they may not be covering against a lot of these teams, is because for these lesser teams, playing and beating, or at least keeping it close and covering the spread, MIA is like their Championship for the season. They get up, like everyone did last year, because they're trying to take something away from this season. I mean MIL is only 6-3 in the conference, 4-1 in their last 5 and 5-3 at home. Lastly, lets not forget this is a team who's not only covered, but beaten CHI, LAL, and HOU in their last 4 games (with lowly DET in there). MIL is an underrated team, and are doing pretty well without Bogut. I'll take the points here.

[loungee]

Add:
CHI -2 (2U) LOSS
PHI has been a sexy pick this year, with a great start to the season and a amazing ATS record. CHI and PHI are pretty even as far as ATS records, with CHI being 14-9 and PHI being 14-6-1. The road/home records are pretty even, with CHI 9-4 and PHI 10-3. Both 3-2 in their last 5, while CHI is 4-1 in their last 5 road games and PHI is 3-2 in their last 5 home games, and both coming into this game on a days rest. Both teams recent covers have come against the bottom part of the league, against teams like CHA, WSH, NJN, CLE, PHO and DET. PHI has had the luxary of playing WSH 3 times in the last 17 days, boosting both their overall W/L record and ATS records. They've been a covering machine, but to be honest, hasn't played really anyone this year, playoff teams wise, except POR (PS not covered), UT (PS not covered), DEN (PS not covered), IND (PS covered), ATL (PS covered), MIA (PS not covered), ORL (PS not covered), and MIL (PS covered). That makes them 3-6 against potential playoff teams ATS this year. They've played a lot of garbage teams, and don't get me wrong, they've made me a lot of money this year, but CHI, despite injuries, are going strong tonight. CHI is 5-6 against potential playoff teams (not a lot better, but better) with covers against LAC, ORL, BOS, MIA and MEM, and not covering against LAL, ATL 2x, MEM, IND, MIL. CHI is a better team and better coached, and they should win straight up, and b 5.

[loungee]

CHI just did not show up tonight. A very disappointing game. As far as the late play, I'm gonna go against my gut instinct and go with the stats, figures and angles, and make it my play of the day:

PLAY OF THE DAY
POR -15 (5U) WIN
As I stated in the previous post, this one is going against my gut and I am gonna take POR -15, going along with CHA TT U84. POR plays above average defense, Wallace is going to come out and play his heart out against his old team, a team who basically did not want him anymore (or trying to clear cap space.. whatever the reason), and he is going to light them up. CHA just simply has not been a good team all year, and last night they lost to LAL, a LAL team that truly isn't as good as this Blazers team, and lost to them by 33. I'm not saying POR will beat them by that much, but they have a deep enough bench to where if the starters rest in the fourth, they can keep the pressure, and the point total up. POR plays very well at home, while CHA is the worst team in the league on the road, and coming off a B2B, I think they get demolished tonight.

[loungee]

lac/ut 1h o100 (1u) win

[loungee]

Well, on the 6 low to medium plays, we went 3-3 for -1.00 units. My two big plays of the night, including the PLAY OF THE DAY, hit, going 2-0, for +8.00 units total. Overall for the day, we went 5-3, adding +7.00 units. Hope everyone was at least on the POR -15 and CHA TT U84 for a nice payday.

Record at the end of the day, 2/1
ATS Record: 38-24-0 (+15.00 Units) (61%)
O/U Record: 34-26-1 (+25.00 Units) (57%)
Overall Record: 72-50-1 (+40.0 Units) (59%)

Early leans for tomorrow:
DEN/LAC O??
POR -??
SA -??
ATL -4
CHI/NYK O??

[william-dil]

Great day yesterday !

BOL today

[loungee]

Thank you. A couple of tough losses but I'm hoping to bounce back strong tonight. No up and down night. Just a steady stream of wins. We'll see. Writeups coming in the next 35-40 mins.

[loungee]

CHI/NYK, O190 (2U) WIN
I don't want to even touch this game with a ten foot pole as far as ATS. I'm leaning CHI as a bounce back game, as well as NYK one of only two teams to win the season series last year against the Bulls. And on top of all of that, NYK haven't gotten their stuff together yet. Besides, I like the over better. My system doesn't give us much value, so this is more of a gut call, but there are a few reasons why I took the over here. Let's start with CHI first. CHI got absolutely embrassed last night, albeit, against a top 3 eastern conference team. Last night was a primce example that the Bulls don't play nearly the type of defense on the road then they do at home. As a matter of fact, CHI gives up nearly 12 more points per game on the road then at home. Some might think that CHI will come out, and play clamp down defense, and bounce back after last night. That's not the case. They're in the middle of a 9 game, 12 day road trip, and don't have back to back nights off until Feb 23rd-27th. That's a lot of games to be played still, on very little rest. They're going to come in NY, and just try and out shoot the Knicks, playing something that resembles defense and get out of there with a win. Although the last game was against a piss poor defense and it was only one game, Melo and Co. looked like a somewhat respectable offense, scoring 114 points. Even if Luol comes back, he won't be 100%, and his defense won't be at top level like the NBA is accustomed too. I see a CHI 99 NYK 94 type of game.

POR -3.5 (3U) LOSS
Notes: Once again, I go against one of my basic rules of the year, and I lost. Shame on me.
Ok, POR is on a B2B, while SAC is coming in on a day off. But that's only half true. POR starters sat the entire fourth quarter in last night's absolute blowout of CHA, and POR to SAC isn't exactly across the country. POR has already beaten SAC twice this year by a combined 34 points (22 the first game, 12 the second), and unbeknownst to be, has actually beaten down pretty nicely the worst teams in the league which include both SAC games, CLE by 20 (although their much improved), TOR by 10 and CHA by 44 (but of course, lost to DET and only beat NO by 7). POR should be able to handle SAC pretty easily but don't expect anything like last night. It is on the road. But I see them winning by at least 10. SAC can't play defense, and when all else fails, they just jack up shots with the likes of The Jimmer, Evans and Cousins, which leads me to my next play..

POR/SAC, O191.5 (1U) LOSS
POR is a pretty good defensive team and SAC is just awful, but given that POR isn't looking to play a whole lot of D and SAC can't play D period. SAC will continue to throw up shots, hoping they hit and POR will actually make their shots. SAC jacks up enough to help with this over.

DEN/LAC, O206 (2U) LOSS
This was a little iffy for me for two reasons: 206 is an extremely high number and it is an against-the-system play. However, I am going to take the over for a couple of key points: first off, DEN and LAC are 1st and fourth, respectively, in points per game, while DEN can't make any stops but LAC is respectable on defense. Secondly, DEN is on the road, where they just score at an outrageous rate, averaging over 107 points per game. Their away O/U record is 8/3, while they are 7-3 in their last 10, while LAC is 6-4 and 6-6, last 10 and home respectively. These last two points are what really got me to take the over: both teams are top 5 in eFG%, 2 point %, true shooting % and top 7 in shooting %. The other point is the fouls. DEN is fouled the most in the league, but guess who's second? That's right.. the LAC. Both of these teams are getting fouled nearly 24 times a game. AND, lest not forget, DEN fouls their opp. 6th most in the league. Expect a lot of free throws in this game, which stops the clock and scores points. Oh, and there is going to be a bit of fatigue in this game on the LAC side, with them playing an absolutly grueling, tough game against UT last night, as I doubt they thought that game was going to be anywhere near as hard as it was, even with Al Jefferson coming back. This over should be good.

ATL -4 (2U) LOSS
I don't have a ton of time to go into this pick, but I like it as ATL is playing well as of late, covering 3 of their last 5 (with one push), while MEM failed to cover 4 in a row before the fought back against DEN. ATL is an up and down team, but given they are both evenly rested, and both with injuries, ATL is a bit more talented here and I'll take them.
[You know a game is out of hand when there is a Jerry Stackhouse sighting!]

NO/SA, U184 (1U) WIN
Tough, tiring games for both teams last night, as I don't see either of them really trying to push the pace tonight. NO is feeling heartbroken, as they had that win last night against PHO and let it slip away in the 4th quarter. NO can't score (aside from last night) as they average 88.1 ppg, and a slightly higher 89.2 ppg on the road. SA is a tough defense, especially at home, where they given up a pedestrian 89.6 points per game. Look for SA's reserves to play a good amount of minutes, and they're actually very talented there. Given the fatigue here for both teams, this game will be slow, snail-moving pace of a game.

NO TT U84 (2U) WIN
CORRECTION: THE TEAM TOTAL WAS 87, NOT 84. TYPO. On a side note, it doesn't look like they'll go under either anyways.
They can't score, they're going against a tough at-home defense and any useful basketball players on that team are completely drained from last night's tough loss.

As of now, that is it, except of course, my play of the night. I won't be doing this every night.. just at times that I spot a play I really love. That play will be posted in the next 20 minutes.

[loungee]

CHI/NYK, O190 (2U)
I don't want to even touch this game with a ten foot pole as far as ATS. I'm leaning CHI as a bounce back game, as well as NYK one of only two teams to win the season series last year against the Bulls. And on top of all of that, NYK haven't gotten their stuff together yet. Besides, I like the over better. My system doesn't give us much value, so this is more of a gut call, but there are a few reasons why I took the over here. Let's start with CHI first. CHI got absolutely embrassed last night, albeit, against a top 3 eastern conference team. Last night was a primce example that the Bulls don't play nearly the type of defense on the road then they do at home. As a matter of fact, CHI gives up nearly 12 more points per game on the road then at home. Some might think that CHI will come out, and play clamp down defense, and bounce back after last night. That's not the case. They're in the middle of a 9 game, 12 day road trip, and don't have back to back nights off until Feb 23rd-27th. That's a lot of games to be played still, on very little rest. They're going to come in NY, and just try and out shoot the Knicks, playing something that resembles defense and get out of there with a win. Although the last game was against a piss poor defense and it was only one game, Melo and Co. looked like a somewhat respectable offense, scoring 114 points. Even if Luol comes back, he won't be 100%, and his defense won't be at top level like the NBA is accustomed too. I see a CHI 99 NYK 94 type of game.

POR -3.5 (3U)
Ok, POR is on a B2B, while SAC is coming in on a day off. But that's only half true. POR starters sat the entire fourth quarter in last night's absolute blowout of CHA, and POR to SAC isn't exactly across the country. POR has already beaten SAC twice this year by a combined 34 points (22 the first game, 12 the second), and unbeknownst to be, has actually beaten down pretty nicely the worst teams in the league which include both SAC games, CLE by 20 (although their much improved), TOR by 10 and CHA by 44 (but of course, lost to DET and only beat NO by 7). POR should be able to handle SAC pretty easily but don't expect anything like last night. It is on the road. But I see them winning by at least 10. SAC can't play defense, and when all else fails, they just jack up shots with the likes of The Jimmer, Evans and Cousins, which leads me to my next play..

POR/SAC, O191.5 (1U)
POR is a pretty good defensive team and SAC is just awful, but given that POR isn't looking to play a whole lot of D and SAC can't play D period. SAC will continue to throw up shots, hoping they hit and POR will actually make their shots. SAC jacks up enough to help with this over.

DEN/LAC, O206 (2U)
This was a little iffy for me for two reasons: 206 is an extremely high number and it is an against-the-system play. However, I am going to take the over for a couple of key points: first off, DEN and LAC are 1st and fourth, respectively, in points per game, while DEN can't make any stops but LAC is respectable on defense. Secondly, DEN is on the road, where they just score at an outrageous rate, averaging over 107 points per game. Their away O/U record is 8/3, while they are 7-3 in their last 10, while LAC is 6-4 and 6-6, last 10 and home respectively. These last two points are what really got me to take the over: both teams are top 5 in eFG%, 2 point %, true shooting % and top 7 in shooting %. The other point is the fouls. DEN is fouled the most in the league, but guess who's second? That's right.. the LAC. Both of these teams are getting fouled nearly 24 times a game. AND, lest not forget, DEN fouls their opp. 6th most in the league. Expect a lot of free throws in this game, which stops the clock and scores points. Oh, and there is going to be a bit of fatigue in this game on the LAC side, with them playing an absolutly grueling, tough game against UT last night, as I doubt they thought that game was going to be anywhere near as hard as it was, even with Al Jefferson coming back. This over should be good.

ATL -4 (2U)
I don't have a ton of time to go into this pick, but I like it as ATL is playing well as of late, covering 3 of their last 5 (with one push), while MEM failed to cover 4 in a row before the fought back against DEN. ATL is an up and down team, but given they are both evenly rested, and both with injuries, ATL is a bit more talented here and I'll take them.

NO/SA, U184 (1U)
Tough, tiring games for both teams last night, as I don't see either of them really trying to push the pace tonight. NO is feeling heartbroken, as they had that win last night against PHO and let it slip away in the 4th quarter. NO can't score (aside from last night) as they average 88.1 ppg, and a slightly higher 89.2 ppg on the road. SA is a tough defense, especially at home, where they given up a pedestrian 89.6 points per game. Look for SA's reserves to play a good amount of minutes, and they're actually very talented there. Given the fatigue here for both teams, this game will be slow, snail-moving pace of a game.

NO TT U84 (2U)
They can't score, they're going against a tough at-home defense and any useful basketball players on that team are completely drained from last night's tough loss.

As of now, that is it, except of course, my play of the night. I won't be doing this every night.. just at times that I spot a play I really love. That play will be posted in the next 20 minutes.

Last play will be for one of the late games. BOL to all.

[loungee]

play of the night:

den/lac 1h o104 (4u) WIN

[loungee]

So much for ATL showing up tonight. I'm over that bet. Onto the others.

[loungee]

no/sa 2h u89.5 (2u) WIN

[Dmil]

Nice knicks over

[loungee]

play of the night:

den/lac 1h o104 (4u) WIN

WAAAAAAAAY too close for comfort, but a win nonetheless.

[loungee]

Nice knicks over

Thank you. Glad you cashed. Hope you were on the Play of the Night as well.

[TC Woods]

[loungee]

ATS Record: 38-26-0 (+10.00 Units) (59%)
O/U Record: 39-28-1 (+33.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 77-54-1 (+40.0 Units) (59%)


Recap: Not exactly the night I was hoping, especially with DEN/LAC only needing 3 points in just under a minute of play at the end of the game. But such is gambling I suppose. We did hit the play of the night, which brings the season total to 3-0-0 +11.00 units. I don't really have any time for writeups as I am on my way out the door for the night soon, but I'll throw in a couple of points, as needed, for each play.


MIA/PHI, U192 (2U)
I'm pissed at myself for not getting this at 194 last night. Foolish. Anyways, both top 5 defenses, both looking to keep the pace slow, especially PHI, because that's the only way they can win. If it goes uptempo, MIA will run them out of the gym.


MIN -4.5 (2U)
NJN are absolutely decimated by injuries, with Morrow, Brooks, Stevenson, Lopez, and Okur among the notable injured. MIN is healthy, young and looking good. Despite being on the road, I like them in this spot.

DET +5 (1U)
Based on lack of line movement with the public all over MIL, I'm gonna take a shot at this one, despite DET being one of the "Bottom 3"


MEM +9.5 (3U)
These games have been close as of late. I just think 9 points is way to much for OKC to cover, even if they are at home. They have not been good at covering spreads this year, and with it being so high, there is always a chance of a back door cover.



HOU -6.5 (1U)
DEN/LAL, O196 (1U)

BOL of luck to all, and I hope it's a strong night tonight.

[loungee]

ATS Record: 41-27-0 (+13.00 Units) (60%)
O/U Record: 40-29-1 (+34.00 Units) (58%)
Overall Record: 81-56-1 (+47.0 Units) (59%)

No posts yesterday.. long day of recovery and there was no games I liked today. But I do have one football play.

NYG/NE, U54 (2U)
NE's D has improved throughout the playoffs, NYG has had a pretty stout D all year, especially in the playoffs. Only three of the last 12 Super Bowl's have gone over 50, and I expect this game to be the game. It will be a slow moving type of game, not the shootout everyone expects. 54 is just to high of a number. BOL to all.