Record as of 2/15/12
ATS Record: 49-49-1 (+2.00 Units) (50%)
O/U Record: 49-42-3 (+30.00 Units) (54%)
ML Record: 1-1-0 (0.00 Units) (50%)
Overall Record: 99-92-4 (+32.0 Units) (52%)
Absolutely brutal night last night. I could not buy a win if I even tried, but it's time to bounce back tonight, with a large slate of games. There was quite a few plays I liked, but I'm going to limit them to 3-4 plays, at least at first. Let's try and get that record back up to 58%-59% range. Today is looking like a dog type of day, as well as a "fade the public" type of day. Today very well may be the day the public gets buried. Good luck to everyone.
PHI +3 (1U) LOSS
PHI has had a tough go as of late, going 2-2 in their last 4 games SU, and 1-3 ATS, while ORL has been playing well of late going 3-1 in their last 4 both SU and ATS. Both of these teams are coming in rested, so that is a wash. However, in close games (spreads of 3 or less) they are 4-1 this year, with 3 of those coming on the road. In conference, they are 13-6 ATS, while going 10-5 in conference in their last 15 games. This is going to be a tough game, but given the inconsistency of ORL and PHI having both top 5 offense and defense, I'm taking the points with PHI
DET +9.5 (2U) WIN
I am loving this game for so many reasons. Obviously, the negative part is DET is coming off a B2B and BOS is rested. DET has covered 6 of their last 7 (winning 4 of those SU). BOS, on the other hand, has been 3-4 ATS in their last 7, and haven't been that great ATS this year for a reason: they are an older team, and they are not going to expend a ton of energy trying to blow teams out this year; they're getting ready for the playoffs. DET hasn't been good as double 9 point or worse dogs this year (1-6), but have been playing exceptionally well lately, due in part to them being finally healthy. This is also a revenge spot for DET (albet the loss was early in the season), but this team is motivated and ready to play. I think BOS winning by double digit is going to be too difficult, given their age and the toll this shortened season is taking on all teams, especially the older ones (LAL, DAL, BOS). Even if this gets out of hand for whatever reason, DET can easily backdoor cover, given that BOS will let up on the gas pedal and rest their starters. Lastly, let's not forget that BOS is more than likely looking ahead to tomorrow night with their rematch against CHI.
TOR +7 (1U) PUSH
TOR is coming off an absolutely brutal loss at home last night against the Knicks and Linsanity's last second three. TOR has covered 4 of their last 5 home games, while SAS has covered 5 of their last 7 away games. SAS are an older team, and it showed in their last game against DET by giving up a big lead and failing to cover ultimately. This is also SAS's 5th straight road game, while this is TOR's 5th straight home game. SA isn't looking to come in and blow TOR out.. just looking to win, while TOR is going to try and bounce back after said bad loss last night. The reason for this thinking is that after this game, SAS get two days off before hitting the road in a big game against LAC. TOR, on the other hand, has CHA and DET on the horizon, and this game they will be coming out and giving SA everything they have to straight up win this. I just think a 7 points spread is too much for SA to cover on the road, especially on a back to back.
SAC +6.5 (1U) LOSS
I am loving the fact the NYK have become such a public bet nowadays, what with the Linsanity running wild. This just means better odds for those that are still fading the Knicks. First of all, both are on a B2B, so that part of the equation is a wash, as well as they both traveled last night. Both of these teams have been on quite a roll lately, ATS at least, with NYK getting most of the attention for obvious reasons. NY is 8-1 in their last 9 games ATS, while SAC is also 8-1 in their last 9 ATS. NY was on a roll with their two superstars out, covering 8 straight, but as soon as Amare came back, he disrupted the flow and feel NY was having, and they did not manage to cover against TOR. SAC has a lot of good, young pieces, and have proven recently that they can hang with just about anyone. They've covered against CHI, OKC, UT, POR, SAS and IND, all since mid Jan. They're a young, good, up and coming team like OKC was a few years ago (although not as good of pieces). NY is getting overvalued here because of Lin and the amazing play he has displayed recently, but as Amare and Melo come back, the chemistry will continue to get disrupted. Neither team is impressive away or home, respectively, but I think this spread is just way to high given the way SAC has been playing lately, and especially given the way they have been able to score almost at will (averaging over 100 points a game the last 6 games). One of the most overlooked reasons for the turnaround in SAC's play is the return of Marcus Thornton, who has been one of their top players since returning. I expect a close game, almost mirror to the NYK/TOR game from last night.
OKC -3 (1U) LOSS
Sigh.. this is the one public play of the night but this just seems like the right play for so many reasons. WARNING: This year, when I bet with OKC, they don't cover and win I bet against them, they cover. So, perhaps, it is best to fade me in this spot, just to forwarn you. Anyways, both teams have been exceptionally good ATS this year, with OKC 16-12 and HOU 16-13, with the away/home records being pretty evenly matched. Both are playing good lately, with OKC being 4-1 ATS their last 5 and HOU being 3-2 in their last 5. The one thing that worries about me with this play is OKC has already beaten them twice this year, so there is a define revenge factor here. But given that they are both on a B2B and OKC was able to rest their starters last night in the blowout win against UT, I'm taking OKC tonight.
ATS Record: 49-49-1 (+2.00 Units) (50%)
O/U Record: 49-42-3 (+30.00 Units) (54%)
ML Record: 1-1-0 (0.00 Units) (50%)
Overall Record: 99-92-4 (+32.0 Units) (52%)
Absolutely brutal night last night. I could not buy a win if I even tried, but it's time to bounce back tonight, with a large slate of games. There was quite a few plays I liked, but I'm going to limit them to 3-4 plays, at least at first. Let's try and get that record back up to 58%-59% range. Today is looking like a dog type of day, as well as a "fade the public" type of day. Today very well may be the day the public gets buried. Good luck to everyone.
PHI +3 (1U) LOSS
PHI has had a tough go as of late, going 2-2 in their last 4 games SU, and 1-3 ATS, while ORL has been playing well of late going 3-1 in their last 4 both SU and ATS. Both of these teams are coming in rested, so that is a wash. However, in close games (spreads of 3 or less) they are 4-1 this year, with 3 of those coming on the road. In conference, they are 13-6 ATS, while going 10-5 in conference in their last 15 games. This is going to be a tough game, but given the inconsistency of ORL and PHI having both top 5 offense and defense, I'm taking the points with PHI
DET +9.5 (2U) WIN
I am loving this game for so many reasons. Obviously, the negative part is DET is coming off a B2B and BOS is rested. DET has covered 6 of their last 7 (winning 4 of those SU). BOS, on the other hand, has been 3-4 ATS in their last 7, and haven't been that great ATS this year for a reason: they are an older team, and they are not going to expend a ton of energy trying to blow teams out this year; they're getting ready for the playoffs. DET hasn't been good as double 9 point or worse dogs this year (1-6), but have been playing exceptionally well lately, due in part to them being finally healthy. This is also a revenge spot for DET (albet the loss was early in the season), but this team is motivated and ready to play. I think BOS winning by double digit is going to be too difficult, given their age and the toll this shortened season is taking on all teams, especially the older ones (LAL, DAL, BOS). Even if this gets out of hand for whatever reason, DET can easily backdoor cover, given that BOS will let up on the gas pedal and rest their starters. Lastly, let's not forget that BOS is more than likely looking ahead to tomorrow night with their rematch against CHI.
TOR +7 (1U) PUSH
TOR is coming off an absolutely brutal loss at home last night against the Knicks and Linsanity's last second three. TOR has covered 4 of their last 5 home games, while SAS has covered 5 of their last 7 away games. SAS are an older team, and it showed in their last game against DET by giving up a big lead and failing to cover ultimately. This is also SAS's 5th straight road game, while this is TOR's 5th straight home game. SA isn't looking to come in and blow TOR out.. just looking to win, while TOR is going to try and bounce back after said bad loss last night. The reason for this thinking is that after this game, SAS get two days off before hitting the road in a big game against LAC. TOR, on the other hand, has CHA and DET on the horizon, and this game they will be coming out and giving SA everything they have to straight up win this. I just think a 7 points spread is too much for SA to cover on the road, especially on a back to back.
SAC +6.5 (1U) LOSS
I am loving the fact the NYK have become such a public bet nowadays, what with the Linsanity running wild. This just means better odds for those that are still fading the Knicks. First of all, both are on a B2B, so that part of the equation is a wash, as well as they both traveled last night. Both of these teams have been on quite a roll lately, ATS at least, with NYK getting most of the attention for obvious reasons. NY is 8-1 in their last 9 games ATS, while SAC is also 8-1 in their last 9 ATS. NY was on a roll with their two superstars out, covering 8 straight, but as soon as Amare came back, he disrupted the flow and feel NY was having, and they did not manage to cover against TOR. SAC has a lot of good, young pieces, and have proven recently that they can hang with just about anyone. They've covered against CHI, OKC, UT, POR, SAS and IND, all since mid Jan. They're a young, good, up and coming team like OKC was a few years ago (although not as good of pieces). NY is getting overvalued here because of Lin and the amazing play he has displayed recently, but as Amare and Melo come back, the chemistry will continue to get disrupted. Neither team is impressive away or home, respectively, but I think this spread is just way to high given the way SAC has been playing lately, and especially given the way they have been able to score almost at will (averaging over 100 points a game the last 6 games). One of the most overlooked reasons for the turnaround in SAC's play is the return of Marcus Thornton, who has been one of their top players since returning. I expect a close game, almost mirror to the NYK/TOR game from last night.
OKC -3 (1U) LOSS
Sigh.. this is the one public play of the night but this just seems like the right play for so many reasons. WARNING: This year, when I bet with OKC, they don't cover and win I bet against them, they cover. So, perhaps, it is best to fade me in this spot, just to forwarn you. Anyways, both teams have been exceptionally good ATS this year, with OKC 16-12 and HOU 16-13, with the away/home records being pretty evenly matched. Both are playing good lately, with OKC being 4-1 ATS their last 5 and HOU being 3-2 in their last 5. The one thing that worries about me with this play is OKC has already beaten them twice this year, so there is a define revenge factor here. But given that they are both on a B2B and OKC was able to rest their starters last night in the blowout win against UT, I'm taking OKC tonight.