Writerups will come later but here are two early plays as of now:
NJN +9 (2U)
LAL/PHI, U178 (1U)
NJN +9 (2U)
LAL/PHI, U178 (1U)
-
Comment -
Loving the NJN play!Comment -
I'm leaning Utah +3 right now, already on Portland +1, NJN +9 and WAS/TOR under.Comment -
We're in the same page it looks like. POR a home dog is really intriguing to me. I'm also taking the SA/MEM over because SA gives up a ton of points on the road, while MEM scores a lot at home, and are gonna be horribly fatigued. The UT +3points has piqued my interest even more with the possibility of Amare out with the death of his brother. Gotta monitor that situation a bit more before I make an official play.
SA/MEM, O185 (2U)
A complete writeup for this play, my earlier to plays and any others will be out around 4:30 pm CST.Comment -
Stoudemire has been officially ruled out. I know teams tend to fair well the first game missing a star, but the NYK aren't a team but a bunch of players. UT is a well rounded team and doing much better with Jefferson back.
UT +3 (1U)Comment -
No sir I did not. Im a little pissed at myself for not grabbing POR ML at +100, and I don't see it going back up. Glad to hear you were able to grab it at least. BOL and I'm pulling for you to cash.Comment -
Thanks! I put a unit on the over at the Memphis game, didn't have the time to put my own research in on this one so I'm going on your knowledge
Comment -
ATS Record: 41-27-0 (+13.00 Units) (60%)
O/U Record: 41-29-1 (+36.00 Units) (59%)
Overall Record: 82-56-1 (+49.0 Units) (59%)
A lot of my picks today ended up being public fades, and I by no means picked them based on that, I am very glad I looked at the trends before making them offical because that made me even more confident in them. I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the books took a beating last night with the NYG winning straight up so today could be a type of revenge. Either way, I'm liking these picks and I hope we're able to have a great night tonight. BOL.
NJN +9 (2U) LOSS
To start it off, it's a public fade, with 72% of the public betting on CHI. CHI is playing their 6th consecutive road game, with NO, CHA, and BOS rounding out the rest of the road trip. CHI is a very good 10-5 ATS on the road so far, while NJN are a pedestrain 4-6 at home. With that being said, I like NJ here to cover for a couple of reasons. This is a long road trip for CHI, and for them to bring 100% energy every game is both unlikely and tough for a coach to ask. These next three road games (NJN, NO and CHA) the Bulls should not have to expend to much energy to beat each of these teams, but covering the spread is a whole different story. I know Thibs likes having his starters out there in the 4th quarter and Rose always rises to the challenge when facing other elite point guards, but with Deng still not 100%, Rip out (I know.. not a huge loss), and NJN trying to avenge their 15 point thumping at the UC 2 weeks ago, I think NJ can keep this close, even with all their injuries.
UT +3 (1U) LOSS
Neither team has spectacular road/home records ATS, or even that great overall, but I like UT in this spot for a few reasons. Of course, the big one, is that Amare will not be playing tonight, and although a lot of teams fair pretty well when a star is injured/DNP, this NY "team" is far from a team. They have a tough time playing together with Melo running the show and without a true PG. Melo is a 1-on-1 machine, which slows the flow of the game, and doesn't get his other teammates involving, leaving them to stand around, waiting for him to do something. UT, on the other hand, are a good team in just about every sense of the word. They share the ball and pass better then NYK (16th compared to 23rd), commit the second fewest turnovers in the league, rebound better (5th compared to 22nd), 2nd in offensive rebounds per game, and shoot the ball better then NY in all 4 major shooting % categories. This seems like a great spot for UT to cover, and probably win outright. This didn't end up being that big of a public fade, with 52% on the NYK, but another fade none the less.
LAL/PHI, U178 (2U) LOSS
81% of the public is on the over. Why? These are stout defenses. Because the number is so low? Either way, I like it. Both of these teams are very good on the defensive end (stat wise at least), which the LAL don't get much credit for. They get bashed for their ineptness on the offensive side. Both teams are top 5 in allowed points per game, both top 10 in DEFF, and both top 5 (and some top 3) in all four major opponent shooting % categories. On the offensive side, PHI is on the upper echlon as far as offensive stats while the LAL are average or below average in just about every important category I consider. These two stellar defenses will come out, make some stops while the offensives will be slow moving and methodical. I personally wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't end up like the LAL/DEN game from a few nights ago, where neither team scored above 90.
PLAY OF THE NIGHT
SA/MEM, O185 (4U) LOSS
I love this play for so many reasons, despite having 62% of the public on my side. First of all, MEM is on a B2B and finishing up 4 games in 5 days, and although they've statistically played good defense this year, I think fatigue is going to be a huge factor in this game. On the other side, SA gives up almost 100 points a game on the road while MEM scores a shade over 102 points per game at home. SA has turned itself, over the last couple of years, a offensive-minded team, scoring 98.1 points per game, which ranks 6th in the NBA this year. Throw in these two factors: a.) SA is 7-4 on the road for O/U's and MEM is 7-3 at home as far as O/U's; and b.) my system gives us a +6.425 points of value for the over, and this shakes out to be my play of the night. Going for a 4-0-0 record and a total of +16.00 units on the year for Plays of the Night.
There may be a few other plays a little later, as I look over the numbers, percentages and my systems but this is all for now. Good luck to everyone.Comment -
Also, if you can still get POR ML (not a PK), I recommend taking that. I wish I would've picked up the ML when it was still +100 but work kept me too busy. This is not an offical play (unless the odds change and I post it) but I feel comfortable recommending it to anyone who can still get it. POR plays very well at home.Comment -
okc/por, u196 (2u)Comment -
Piss poor 2nd half in the SA/MEM game, and just a piss poor night all together. Look to get them tomorrow.Comment -
Early leans for tomorrow:
CLE +13
IND -??
CHA/BOS, U177
PHO/MIL, O194
Hope some of you faded me on a day like this. I believe it's my worst day so far this year, but those types of days are bound to happen, even to better handicappers then me. Hoping to get back on the right track tomorrow.Comment -
Horrible, horrible night. Can't remember a night this bad for me in the NBA...
Comment -
I guess the only consolation is that it seems handicappersbetter then me took a bath yesterday fading the public. Only seeing a few plays today and will add later. Time to bounce back.Comment -
ATS Record: 41-29-0 (+10.00 Units) (59%)
O/U Record: 41-32-1 (+28.00 Units) (56%)
Overall Record: 82-61-1 (+38.0 Units) (57%)
Not a lot that I'm liking tonight so far, except for a few. There may be more later, but I'm not entirely sure.
BOS -14 (2U) LOSS
CHA is the worst team in the league, and at this point, the way they're playing and with their injuries, no amount of rest is going to do much good for them. BOS just blew out a much better MEM team Sunday by 18, and given the following information, BOS should be able to handle CHA: any player resembling a scoring threat is injured for CHA (Augustin, Maggette, Henderson), BOS is top 10 in the four major defensive shooting % categories, give up the second least amount of points at home, CHA gives up the second most poitns on the road, and bottom 3 in the four major defensive shooting % categories. With everyone back and healthy, I expect BOS to dismantle a beat up, disinterested CHA team.
MIN -6 (1U) LOSS
I expect them to come out fighting without Love, knowing it is a condensed schedule and every win counts if they are looking towards making the playoffs. MIN is finally completely healthy (minus Darko) and Beasley actually looks like a half-way decent player. SAC is on a B2B, expending a lot of energy to fight from behind and win last night against NO, as well as traveling from NO to MIN. With Rubio running the show, I like MIN here for a unit.Comment -
BOS up 15 with a minute and a half left, and just couldn't close. Last two days have not been up to par. Regardless of how my last two plays, I'm already eyeing some good ones for tomorrow. BOL.
GSW +2 (1U) LOSS
GSW TT O103 (1U) WINComment -
Record as of 2/8/12
ATS Record: 41-32-0 (+6.00 Units) (56%)
O/U Record: 42-32-1 (+29.00 Units) (57%)
Overall Record: 83-64-1 (+35.0 Units) (56%)
Rough GSW game. They had it all the way for the SU win. Onto tomorrow. With the amount of games and already a couple of picks I'm eyeing, tomorrow should be a much better day.Comment -
Everyone has some bad stretches now and then, no need to worry with your capping abilities.
Comment -
Plays for 2/8
Writeups will come later on.
CHI -9 (2U)
NYK +1.5 (1U)Comment -
Im also leaning SAS and DAL but not making them official yet.Comment -
I placed 1.5 units on Philly this morning, but the line not really moving scares me. Should have layed of.Comment -
Tonight's card is shaping up to be pretty good so far. The last two days have not gone as expected as far as what I've been producing all year so, as always, tail or fade at your own risk. As I stated in my very first post for this thread, I don't go chasing my losses, or "guaruntee" anything, or give you "locks of the century." I'll give you the information and statistics that I come up with along with my plays. BOL to all, whether you choose to tail or fade.
CHI -9 (2U)
I grabbed this one early this morning at -9 and has since gone up to -10, and by game time, at least -10.5, maybe even -11. I went against my better judgement last Bulls game, going against my Bulls and taking the NJN +9. Shame on me. Rose is listed as game-time decision, but he WILL be playing, as both him and Coach Thibs have come out and stated he will play. This spread is a little high, seeing as how if CHI was at home, this would be around -16. But this doesn't concern me for a couple of reasons. For one, even if Rose didn't play, Deng is back and seems to have not missed a beat, going off his first two games back. The Bulls are deep enough that if, for some reason, Rose suffers a setback, Watson can step in and start. Watson is no Rose, but he has proved time and again that he is capable of stepping in. Secondly, as a poster stated to me before the NYN's game, the Bulls absolutely destroy inferior teams and do not let up on the gas. Being a Bulls fan, I of course knew this. But I stuck with my pick and paid for it. Thibs and Collins of the 76ers have proven that they are really the only two coaches (that I can think of off the top of my head) that even if they have a big lead, the starters will be out there, and they will drive up the score, unlike, for example, BOS last night, who let the backdoor cover happen. CHI has beaten up the bad teams this year, winning by an average of 20.25 points against NJN(2x), MIL, WSH(2x), CLE, and DET(2x). CHI is 11-6 on the road ATS while NO is 4-10 at home ATS. NO has Landry and Gordon out, and Jack day-to-day while CHI only has Rip sitting. I like the Bulls a lot in this spot. They normally don't let up or play down to the competition like other top tier teams.
DAL ML +100 (1U)
I took the ML because it was better odds then taking DAL +1 (-110), and given DEN's injuries, I like DAL to win this straight up anyways. DEN has Brewer, Mozgov, and Gallinari out, while Affalo and Nene expecting to return tonight. Nene and Affalo returning is huge for DEN, but with three prominent pieces out, this is going to affect their depth. Both teams haven't been playing their best basketball recently, both going 1-4 ATS in their last five, and both coming in a 3 game losing streaks SU. But I think DAL comes in strong tonight, knowing DEN is 100%, both as a team and the players that are playing.
NYK +2 (1U) WIN
I like this pick even more now that Amare isn't playing and Melo out 1-2 weeks. I'm not completely sold on Lin yet, but he's a far better option at PG then Shumpert. With their two superstars out, NYK will actually move the ball instead of coming to a stand still and playing a two man game like they do when Melo is in there. WSH should not be favored against anyone, unless they are playing at home, on at least a days rest, against one of the following: NO, CHA or DET. That's it. They're in the bottom of the league in shooting % categories (the four major), and defensive shooting categories (the four major). NYK aren't a ton better, but will play well as a team. They actually have some decent to pretty good outside shooters like Walker (never thought I'd say that), Fields and Douglas. The books are overvaluing WSH here making them favorites just because NYK don't have Amare or Melo, but WSH doesn't have much to throw out on the floor to begin with. NY has actually covered their last 5 against the likes of CHI, UT and BOS, while WSH has been 1-4 in their last five, failing to cover against the lowly Raptors. This is a good spot for NY to go into WSH and win straight up.
PLAY OF THE NIGHT
PHI TT O92 (3U) LOSS
I like this quite a bit for a couple of reasons. SA does not play well, scoring defense-wise, on the road, and are going to look to keep this game uptempo and outshoot PHI because, well, that's the only way they're going to win. I expect a high scoring game but I just don't know yet if this game will go over. Anyways, SA's pourous road defense mixed in with PHI's top 10 shooting offense and SA fouling the most in the NBA, I'm liking this pick a lot.
I may have a few other plays, but as of now, this is it. Good luck.Comment -
what are your thoughts on heat -4.5 and pacers +3.5Comment -
The Heat game is tough for me mainly because of who they're playing: ORL. ORL is one of the more unpredictable teams in the league this year. They very well could come out shooting 60% and win, or shoot 30% and get blown out. This line is also telling me that the books only see PHI as 2 points better then ORL, which is far from the truth. ORL isn't playing well, and Howard's demand for a trade (or not wanting a trade, depending on what day it is) has the team distracted. How can any of his teammates really want to put forth their effort, playing next to a guy who has basically said, "I can't win with you chumps. Front office better trade me." If I had to lean, I'd lean MIA as they have shown to get up for big games against playoff-type teams i.e. PHI and CHI. It wouldn't surprise me if the final score more resembled the Philly game then the CHI game.
In the IND game, I'd lean more towards IND because of ATL hot/cold game. You never know which ATL team will show up. IND has a good defense this year, and ATL has been known to give up if things get to tough. I don't have a strong read on this game, so I'm staying away, but I'd lean towards IND. Best of luck.Comment -
Philly starting every quarter slow and then finishing strong is a bit worrying to me. 26 in the 4th shouldn't be a lot to ask this PHI team, but the way their playing, who knows.Comment -
With 1:46 left in the 4th quarter, Lou Williams hits a three to bring Philly to 90. In that last 1:46, they attempted one shot and turned the ball over. Not even a simple two for a push could be had. Very disappointing and frustrating loss, especially with the way all the other games are going. Anyways, I've got two late plays:
POR -2.5 1Q (1U) LOSS
POR TT O 101.5 (1U)Comment -
Record as of 2/9/12
ATS Record: 44-32-0 (+10.00 Units) (58%)
O/U Record: 42-35-1 (+24.00 Units) (55%)
ML Record: 1-0-0 (+1.00 Units) (100%)
Overall Record: 87-67-1 (+35.0 Units) (56%)
Well, I guess this is a step in the right direction, breaking even minus the juice. Sweating out the HOU 2H spread was unnecessary for if I don't make those late plays, I'm positive for units for the day. I've got to stop making last minute, late game type of plays without doing the full research instead of putting forth half the effort and going with my gut feeling. At least things are moving in the right direction I suppose. That PHI game outcome is gonna bug me the rest of the night, but tomorrow, it'll be out of my mind and on to some winnings.
Leans for tomorrow:
OKC -6.5
LAL +3.5
GS/DEN O???Comment -
I'm leaning Lakers plus the points too, but can you really trust them on the road? Boston seems to have to hang of it also lately, particulary at home, so I can't pull the trigger just yet.Comment -
I completely agree. The more o think about it, they don't pass the eye test not my gut. They very well may cover or win, but I don't feel comfortable enough to make a play. There are some plays tonight and those writeup will come soon.Comment -
Lookin forward to the picks loungeeComment -
Here you go. I don't have a lot of time right now for full writeups but I'll throw in the best I can for each play.
GSW/DEN U212 (1U) WIN
This is a ridicliously high number to start off. GSW has been playing competitive as of late, with a full-on healthy Steph Curry. Niether team plays defense very well. But DEN is slowly getting healthy, and not completely back to their old selves. Of course, niether team are inept as far as scoring, but based on my system and the public being all on the over, I'll take the under.
PHO -4 (2U) LOSS
Too busy today to grab this at -3 and I'm very disappointed. Anyways, PHO has been playing well their last two games. If you've been following this thread, you know I love me some HOU basketball. Without a doubt the most underrated team in the league this year, as evidenced by beating one of the best home basketball teams last night in POR. With that being said, I'll take a rested PHO team against a pretty good HOU team, but coming off a hard-fought, unexpected win against POR last night. If you take into account that HOU has expended a lot of energy playing uptempo basketball their last two games AND beating two teams better then them (DEN and POR), Kyle Lowry being questionable and this being a revenge spot for PHO, who were beat down by HOU by 18 on the third, I'll take PHO.
LAL/BOS O175 (1U) PUSH
First off, the line movement scared me a little, with 80% on the over (earlier today, but has since dropped to 62%), yet this opened at 178 and dropped as low as 175.5. Suspicous to say the least but I'm gonna take the over for a couple of reasons. This is a primetime game, where these two seem to play each other with tenacity and a bit of "hate." First off, each teams last two games where the O/U was 179.5 or lower, hit the over and against very good to top notch defenses like IND, MEM and PHI. In the last four years, only one game (out of 8) did not go over 175. LAL foul 8th most while BOS fouls 17th most, while LAL get fouled 14th most and BOS 15th most. Given the nature of the rivalry and BOS trying to continue their statement run of "We're back.. we can still win" thing they got going on, I expect this number to get hit.
That's all for right now. I may have a play on the OKC game. BOLComment -
As long as this game stays close, I think we can hit this over on late-game fouls. First quarter looked good with 48the combined points but start to second not looking as good.Comment
