John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Wilba]

JM B - C Bets v Regular A - C Bets:
Buy 3 points (odds -182 or 1.55). No ML bets

Series total risk:
A-C, to win 1 unit: 21.45
B-C to win 3 units: 20.86

42 JM series completed so far, to Feb 4.
results:
41-1 (although the lost series was probabaly not an official JM series. For the purposes of this comparison it doesn't really matter)
See posts from thelimit0310 (good work, buddy) for details.

A-C Bets = 41 wins x 1 unit minus 1 loss @ 21.45 units = 19.55 units profit.

A Bet failures: 17 occasions (59.5% success rate).

B-C Bets = 16 wins x 3 units minus 1 loss @ 20.86 units = 27.14 units profit.

B Bet failures: 4 occasions (76% success rate)

We are approx one third of the way through the regular season. The B&C bettors have 7 units of additional profit to soften the blow after the recent n the event of a series failure.

Current stats continue to support historical data that time and money is wasted by betting from the A Bet.

More stats next Saturday.
Good luck to all, whatever your strategy
Kev
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lol Kev you are gonna piss Stevex off by keeping on posting how B/C is more effective than betting from A - he does not want to hear about it! And besides, have you not heard the A bet players keep saying "the A bets are doing great"? Hang on, something doesn't make sense here

[stevex]

3 A bets tn. Can't wait till they all cash for me...

[Nino7]

4 Oklahoma City V3
4 Houston V3
4 LA Clippers V1
4 Dallas V3
4 + chase 110 thats 5

[thelimit0310]

Thanks Kev! Big night tonight fellas!

JM Feb 3

V3 LA LAKERS +7 @ Denver (A) WIN

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 8-5
B: 2-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 2-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 17-9
B: 6-3
C: 2-1
DET 1/28-1/31

Totals
A: 27-16
B: 10-5
C: 4-1

JM Feb 4

V3 OKC +6 @ San Antonio (A)
V3 HOUSTON +5 @ Minnesota (A)
V1 LA CLIPPERS -5.5 @ Washington (A)
V3 DALLAS -2.5 @ Cleveland (A)
V1 CHARLOTTE +13 @ Phoenix (C)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[1gamer]

So you are betting 4 units on a B bet this way instead of the normal 2.10, meaning, if this four game stretch would have lost for you, it would have been quite expensive, and you bet on a completely different series than either two that were in your parlay yesterday. This isn't a system, this is gambling!

Because I'm trying this system for the 1st time, that was a mistake I made. Fortunately it worked out in my favor. Because I'm parlaying the (A) & (B) plays only, the Profit + Losses I carrier over will obviously be a higher amount than the normal betting units. I have to figure out the betting units for this system. To your point though, I disagree that this is gambling, not a system. If anyone here "stands behind" playing JM and Chase Systems (Which I do) how can this system not work? They're the same plays, just looked at a different way, with MUCH more flexablity. Crossing over to the JM Modified Lakers series (A) bet last night, instead of staying with N.O. Series (B) bet was not a hard decision to make.

[1gamer]

Parlay 1 (A) JM V1-V3 (Profit/Loss +3 Units)

Oak City (A) +6
Houston (A) +5
LAC (A) -5.5
Dallas (A) -2.5

Bet 1 to win 3.84

Parlay 2 (A) Chase -110

N.O. (B) PK
Charlottle (A);JM(C) +10

1 to win 2.64

Let me know Wallco if you don't approve of these post in your thread.

[Wallco99]

Parlay 1 (A) JM V1-V3 (Profit/Loss +4 Units)

Oak City (A) +6
Houston (A) +5
LAC (A) -5.5
Dallas (A) -2.5

Bet 1 to win 3.84

Parlay 2 (A) Chase -110

N.O. (B) PK
Charlottle (A);JM(C) +10

1 to win 2.64

Let me know Wallco if you don't approve of these post in your thread.

I don't care where you put it, I just don't like the amount your (B) bet has to be, meaning your C and D will also be much higher. If the bet does lose, it will be for a much larger amount.

[Wallco99]

Parlay 1 (A) JM V1-V3 (Profit/Loss +4 Units)

Oak City (A) +6
Houston (A) +5
LAC (A) -5.5
Dallas (A) -2.5

Bet 1 to win 3.84

Parlay 2 (A) Chase -110

N.O. (B) PK
Charlottle (A);JM(C) +10

1 to win 2.64

Let me know Wallco if you don't approve of these post in your thread.

How is it +4 units, when you said you won 4 units on yesterday's Lakers game (straight bet), don't forget to subtract your losses from the parlay the day before. And if your 4 team parlay above does happen to hit, are you saying you will only win 3.84 units? That's not even 1 unit per team. So what if 3 of the 4 teams hit? You lose the parlay, and your B bet for the losing team will have to be for 5 units, (the unit you lost + 4 units profit for 4 teams played), your C and D would be for a hell of a lot more than usual, and a loss would be very large. And you are risking this to not even attain 1 unit profit/team if the parlay does hit. I guess I am missing the GREAT part.

[1gamer]

I don't care where you put it, I just don't like the amount your (B) bet has to be, meaning your C and D will also be much higher. If the bet does lose, it will be for a much larger amount.

How about:

For Parlay 1 (A) LOSS (Regardless of the number of teams in the parlay or Profit amount) the betting unit will be bet 1 to win 1

Parlay 1 (B) LOSS will be to win 3 units (regardless of the number of teams in the parlay or Profit amount).

So the Single (C) bet will start out to win (4 units + Losses) (At either at JM V1-3; -200; JM Modified -110; or Chase -110)

So the Single (D) bet will be to win (5 Units + Losses) at the Odds of either -200 or -110.

[1gamer]

How is it +4 units, when you said you won 4 units on yesterday's Lakers game (straight bet), don't forget to subtract your losses from the parlay the day before. And if your 4 team parlay above does happen to hit, are you saying you will only win 3.84 units? That's not even 1 unit per team. So what if 3 of the 4 teams hit? You lose the parlay, and your B bet for the losing team will have to be for 5 units, (the unit you lost + 4 units profit for 4 teams played), your C and D would be for a hell of a lot more than usual, and a loss would be very large. And you are risking this to not even attain 1 unit profit/team if the parlay does hit. I guess I am missing the GREAT part.

As I mentioned before, I don't have the betting part of it down quite yet. Correct I netted 3 units. To win 4 minus Parlay (A) losses of 1. It doesn't matter to me if I'm not earning 1 unit per team in the parlay. I'll exchange that for the flexablity of this sytem. Plus your not accounting for "if" the parlay hits, which, it's just a matter of time before it does.

[Wallco99]

As I mentioned before, I don't have the betting part of it down quite yet. Correct I netted 3 units. To win 4 minus Parlay (A) losses of 1. It doesn't matter to me if I'm not earning 1 unit per team in the parlay. I'll exchange that for the flexablity of this sytem. Plus your not accounting for "if" the parlay hits, which, it's just a matter of time before it does.

I account for everything, that is why I made the statements I did. If you are happier winning less and potentially risking more, then OK with me.

[kdavis]

Does anyone think Charlotte goes higher than 10?

[stevex]

The Bobcats line will most likely stay at 10 unless a key injury gets announced before tip off.

[kdavis]

Forgive me if someone has covered this before but just curious. Has anyone back tested a system for when a road team WINS the "A" game of the series and then fade that team for the "B" and "C" game. Seems rare that a road team sweeps a 3 game series.

[1gamer]

I account for everything, that is why I made the statements I did. If you are happier winning less and potentially risking more, then OK with me.

I'll take any advice I can get, however, like I mentioned before, I not 100% sold on this system either. I'm looking for reasons why it won't work, just haven't found any yet. I'll just have to see how it plays out. So far, so good.

[Wallco99]

I'll take any advice I can get, however, like I mentioned before, I not 100% sold on this system either. I'm looking for reasons why it won't work, just haven't found any yet. I'll just have to see how it plays out. So far, so good.

I am by no means saying it won't work, I just think your numbers need to be revised, so that somehow you can make at least 1 unit per win, which is usually the minimum we try to achieve. Playing parlays, you don't get credit for teams that win unless the WHOLE parlay wins. If it doesn't, it takes larger B,C, and D bets to try and recoup the same units, which should always be the goal. Net result on a two team parlay, for example:

Team X
Team Y
risk 1 unit to win 2.3 units

If it wins, great, you are actually ahead .3 units then if you had bet both teams seperately, not much more, but still, it is more.

If it loses, then you will be far behind:

Team X - wins
Team Y - loses

You will not get the 1 unit profit for team X winning, so to equal the output, you will need to bet the remaining games to win 2 units on team Y, instead of 1 unit.

Team X - 0 units
Team Y - Loses A (-1.00 units), Loses B (-3.30 units), Loses C (-6.93 units), Loses D (-12.35 units)

Total if Team Y continues to lose (-23.58 units) This is to win 2 units total for the two teams, this is all at -110 (buying points would be substantially higher), not to mention you would never have received the unit profit for team X win.

[1gamer]

Parlay 1 (A) JM V1-V3 (Profit/Loss +3 Units) Oak City (A) +6 Houston (A) +5 LAC (A) -5.5 Dallas (A) -2.5 Bet 1 to win 3.84 Parlay 2 (A) Chase -110 N.O. (B) PK Charlottle (A);JM(C) +10 1 to win 2.64 Let me know Wallco if you don't approve of these post in your thread.

The above JM 4 team Parlay (A) is buying the 3 points for each team at -200 Odds.

Bet 1 to win 3.84

The above Chase -110 2 team parlay (A) is buying the Bobcats to +10 at -120 Odds

Bet 1 to win 2.64

Also take into account if 1 team pushes in the 2 team parlay, I should get paid for the 1 SU wager.

[COBRA31]

I jumped on here late and have played about 20 series so far.

Does anyone have the breakdown of the A,B,C records for all 3 JM versions playing it ATS without buying points ?

Basically the same look theLimit posts daily for the season so far.

I believe there have been a couple more loses ?

Appreciate the support.

[thelimit0310]

Don't know the actual record. But there have been 2 unofficial losses so far.

[stevex]

That's correct. There have been 3 (1 if you buy the 3 points) losses so far if you just play strictly -110 odds.

[stickbit]

Forgive me if someone has covered this before but just curious. Has anyone back tested a system for when a road team WINS the "A" game of the series and then fade that team for the "B" and "C" game. Seems rare that a road team sweeps a 3 game series.

Great question...I did backtest this last year but can't seem to find my notes. I don't think it worked out very well (surprisingly) but not positive on that. IF you do a 2 game chase on labby lines you would make some cash, but that is the only way I would play it.

[dlunc3]

3 fourth quarter points through 10 minutes for Charlotte... wtf is going on

[analyzer]

So glad to see Bobcats get a cover!

[jcygts6]

Amazing cover by the bobbies

[dlunc3]

huge... congrats to those who followed through

[Wilba]

People who didn't follow through with the most powerful and reliable bet in any series (the C) are crazy..
That's why so few people actually make money from these systems, lack of discipline.

[Wilba]

If capping NBA games and coming up with better plays than the system plays was so easy, everyone would be doing it..

[Wilba]

lol Kev you are gonna piss Stevex off by keeping on posting how B/C is more effective than betting from A - he does not want to hear about it! And besides, have you not heard the A bet players keep saying "the A bets are doing great"? Hang on, something doesn't make sense here

1-3 night for the A bets means traditional A bet players now need to win more than 5 straight A bets just to break even from the tonight's negative.. Ouch!

That's not including the 7+ unit hole already made from playing A bets the traditional way..

Only one in 3 A bets needs to lose for traditional players to be better off skipping them! (stating what has already been stated many times but people still don't seem to compute this fact)

Here come the >3 unit Bs

[1gamer]

1-3 night for the A bets means traditional A bet players now need to win more than 5 straight A bets just to break even from the tonight's negative.. Ouch! That's not including the 7+ unit hole already made from playing A bets the traditional way.. Only one in 3 A bets needs to lose for traditional players to be better off skipping them! (stating what has already been stated many times but people still don't seem to compute this fact) Here come the >3 unit Bs

Not for me it didn't...I bet all 6 teams and I'm only down 2 units.

[ChiLLx]

huge... congrats to those who followed through

They saved me on what was otherwise a horrible night. Glad to see 3 Bs coming up.

[Kev the Brit]

I jumped on here late....(snip)<SNIP>... Does anyone have the breakdown of the A,B,C records for all 3 JM versions playing it ATS without buying points ? Appreciate the support.

Unless someone else here has those records to post, you can can get them with minimal effort for this season from Covers.com or Scoresandodds.com

Kev

[Kev the Brit]

I chose not to play the Bobcats with JM due to their road performance. I notice that JM gave some cautionary advice with the C Bet about their road performance but didn't do so with the A or B, when they were the worst, then.

Due to the back up of another 3 bets with Chase 110, I chose to play the Bobcats with that system on the basis that I didn't believe it was likely (although possible) for any team to lose 11 games ATS back to back. The team and the system held up. Well done, guys!

[casdio]

Bobcats

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 29-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.55 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.20 units)

(2/4/12):
#30 New Orleans (-1) (B) - Loss
#31 Charlotte (+10) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 22-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 2-3
(D) 2-1

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (2/5/12):
#30 Resumes (C) on 2/6/12


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Maxi_EV]

How can people come up with new systems everyday!?!?!?
I've been working on a couple of my own for so many time!!!

Please guys, go backtest your ideas on a couple of seasons and comeback with SERIOUS numbers!

Is it really that recent loss that triggered all of this?