John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Riceboi]

of course the one night I skip the A games and just go for the B game, the B game loses and the A's cash hahah oh well.

[COBRA31]

Wallco....

So Bobcats are a Chase110 C bet and JM V1 A bet next according to my tracking. I assume you for sure do the C bet....but do you place a separate bet using 1,3,5 for the JM V1 series ?

Curious on how everyone will play

[Maxi_EV]

hey I couldnt find a way to open this simulator.it necessarly has to be done with excel?

I think it is an excel file, yes. Don't know if another program can handle it.

[Maxi_EV]

I've been working on a comparator spreadsheet that might help folk work out which is better, when chase betting: betting to win a fixed percentage of the original bankroll or betting to win a fixed percentage of the extant bankroll. I've already established something which might of use to some folk here:

Assuming the following:
The unit to win per series is 1% BR
The total risk per series is 20 units

Then:
Betting to win 1% of the original BR enables the BR to retain a higher monetary value (compared to betting to win 1% of the extant BR) after a series loss until series #45.

This season I started down the compounding route and grew my unit value as a fixed percentage of a growing BR. So far I'm still undefeated in all of my systems (JM NBA, Wallco, JJ and Hedgepeth), but none of them has reached the safe crossover point (45 series) so I'm now immediately reverting to a fixed value unit.

Posts # 1229, 1238, 1241, 1310.

[dominate.]

I've been working on a comparator spreadsheet that might help folk work out which is better, when chase betting: betting to win a fixed percentage of the original bankroll or betting to win a fixed percentage of the extant bankroll. I've already established something which might of use to some folk here: Assuming the following: The unit to win per series is 1% BR The total risk per series is 20 units Then: Betting to win 1% of the original BR enables the BR to retain a higher monetary value (compared to betting to win 1% of the extant BR) after a series loss until series #45. This season I started down the compounding route and grew my unit value as a fixed percentage of a growing BR. So far I'm still undefeated in all of my systems (JM NBA, Wallco, JJ and Hedgepeth), but none of them has reached the safe crossover point (45 series) so I'm now immediately reverting to a fixed value unit.

How are JJ and Hedgepeth doing? Can you provide me a link to those systems please?

[Swan4brownlow]

Or I could win 1 B bet to equate all 7 A bet wins in one shot. I'll wait for that.

Just a question for Wallco and thelimit. You guys both mentioned about a week ago that you were looking to explore the possibility of using 7/5 bets for the B and C JM series. I was just wondering if you guys had come to any conclusions about the potential success of that system? From the above quote it seems like you have, but I haven't seen any confirmation that that was the way to go. If you guys have confirmed it then my bad for overlooking the post. Appreciate all the work you guys do

[Wallco99]

Just a question for Wallco and thelimit. You guys both mentioned about a week ago that you were looking to explore the possibility of using 7/5 bets for the B and C JM series. I was just wondering if you guys had come to any conclusions about the potential success of that system? From the above quote it seems like you have, but I haven't seen any confirmation that that was the way to go. If you guys have confirmed it then my bad for overlooking the post. Appreciate all the work you guys do

Just making a point, that if this method tests the way I hope it will, that we can make back 7 of the missed A bets with 1 B bet win. Still doing the 1-3-5 for now though, only because I started the season that way, and test for 7/5 is not complete, even though I think skipping A bets is probably right.

[Swan4brownlow]

Just making a point, that if this method tests the way I hope it will, that we can make back 7 of the missed A bets with 1 B bet win. Still doing the 1-3-5 for now though, only because I started the season that way, and test for 7/5 is not complete, even though I think skipping A bets is probably right.

Ah ok great. As i said, really appreciate the expertise and effort you guys put in.

[Wilba]

of course the one night I skip the A games and just go for the B game, the B game loses and the A's cash hahah oh well.

That's why you should never pick and choose which ones to play, stick with one method always, it's very simple

[Nino7]

...

[Wilba]

Think I am too. Detroit has too many injuries and gotta be too tired after the last couple days.

Kev and me passed for statistical reasons, coz the A bets lose you money long run. If you have been playing the A bets, I suggest bringing your own capping skills into deciding whether or not to play a system bet is always a bad idea. It is a set system and emotions/opinions should never come into whether you play a particular bet or not

[Wilba]

A bets on a nice streak. To bad for all those not playing them.

I say we grab 2 more A bet wins tonight, keep adding to that bankroll.

lol they are on a 'nice streak' yet those playing the system traditionally are still -8 units from playing them - that's the whole point! Imagine how far you get behind when they are no longer on a 'nice streak'!

[Wilba]

Huh? Not saying they never cover was wondering if they dont cover at a high enough rate where its not worth the risk of playing it...but thanks

sometimes the worst teams in the league have the best record in the league at covering spreads. OKC two years ago, when they were the worst (or 2nd worst) team in the league straight up, had the BEST record in the league for covering spreads. I backed them every single game for the second half of the season whether I liked the play or not and made a mint. Bad team straight up does not = bad team at the spread.

Similarly some great teams straight up have terrible ATS records. The two things are completely different

[Wilba]

Wallco....

So Bobcats are a Chase110 C bet and JM V1 A bet next according to my tracking. I assume you for sure do the C bet....but do you place a separate bet using 1,3,5 for the JM V1 series ?

Curious on how everyone will play

The two systems are completely separate and have no bearing on each other. You play the Wallco C bet, and (if you play the A bets) then you play the A bet for JM. Don't understand why there would be any confusion as the two sytems have nothing to do with each other.

I actually love Charlotte at the Lakers as a play, the past head to head covering record of the Bobcats is impossible to ignore, I'm gonna make a play on the Bobcats as my own 'personal' play. I very rarely place my own bets on the NBA but when there is a covering streak like Char against Lakers I ride it hard until it breaks!

[Nino7]

maxi_ev betting 1% of the starting bankroll forever is definately not a way to go just like increasing the bet size every serie.
then how often do u have to increase your bet size for the best results?
i cant use the simulator yet so i cant figure that out...

[Maxi_EV]

maxi_ev betting 1% of the starting bankroll forever is definately not a way to go just like increasing the bet size every serie.
then how often do u have to increase your bet size for the best results?
i cant use the simulator yet so i cant figure that out...

Of course not forever!
I like to split my year in 2. Spring/Summer with MLB then fall/winter with NHL, NBA.
I reevaluate my unit size at the beginning of each period and stick to it for 6 months.

[GGPLAYER]

JM January 27

V3 OKLAHOMA CITY -1 @ Golden State (A) WIN
V3 SAN ANTONIO +2 @ Minnesota (A) LOSS

Dominate, there is isn't that much of a difference aside from the upcoming plays and the lost series. I will add lost series when it happens, currently we are undefeated.

your doing a great job posting the plays!

[Maxi_EV]

Or when bankroll doubles up!
But here it can screw a system for a particular season in terms of $ won.

[GGPLAYER]

That's why you should never pick and choose which ones to play, stick with one method always, it's very simple

Common sense in a gambling forum. Non-sense.

[thelimit0310]

JM January 28

V3 DETROIT +15.5 @ Philadelphia (A) LOSS

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 8-4
B: 2-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 1-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 15-9
B: 5-2
C: 2-0

Totals
A: 24-15
B: 9-4
C: 4-0

JM January 29

V3 CHICAGO +7.5 @ Miami (A)
V3 SAN ANTONIO +8 @ Dallas (B)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[Wallco99]

That's why you should never pick and choose which ones to play, stick with one method always, it's very simple

I agree, even though I believe the B and C only method to be better, I started the season at 1-3-5, and it's been working, so I don't want to change anything unless I am doing it permanently, which will probably be to B&C for 7/5, and if that proves not to work, I will find a B&C method for -110 that does, but I believe we already have.

[Wilba]

makes perfect sense Wallco. I have found that changing methods part way through a season, or picking and choosing which series/bets to play is a recipe for disaster. Like most things sports betting consistency and discipline is key

[Kev the Brit]

of course the one night I skip the A games and just go for the B game, the B game loses and the A's cash hahah oh well.

No, No, the B&C strategy does not apply to Chase 110. It applies only to the Morrison NBA system. Wallco has never suggested to us, officially, to do the same with Chase 110

[Nino7]

...

[Nino7]

do u use the 1-3-5 for V2 and V3 also?

[Wallco99]

do u use the 1-3-5 for V2 and V3 also?

Yes I do, for now. But as I said, I agree with Kev and Wilba that B&C is the way to go, that is why I am so adament about the 7/5 method, and really hope it is effective.

[thelimit0310]

I have edited the official play post to include the San Antonio spread, please take note!

[Nino7]

....

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 25-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +25.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)

(1/28/12):
#24 Charlotte (+2) (B) - Loss
#25 Sacramento (+9) (A) - Win
#26 Phoenix (+4) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 19-7
(B) 2-5
(C) 2-2
(D) 2-0

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (1/29/12):
#24 Resumes (C) on 1/31/12

[Wallco99]

I am, but as I have suggested 100 times, it's working for me, but in no means am I suggesting it to anyone. I have not properly backtested it past last season, and I stopped testing because I am focusing on 7/5 for JM, and a new bet strategy for Chase 110 to eliminate the M/L plays. I don't know why this won't sink in, it has been stated countless times, to play it the way you always have, and if we determine that another bet strategy is better than the current, I promise, we will let everyone know immediately. And even better, I will post it in BIG BOLD LETTERS so no one misses it.

This was answering the question in post #1358 which has since been removed.
Question was: Am I still chasing B&C, if A bet wins buying three points, but not ATS?

[stickbit]

sometimes the worst teams in the league have the best record in the league at covering spreads. OKC two years ago, when they were the worst (or 2nd worst) team in the league straight up, had the BEST record in the league for covering spreads. I backed them every single game for the second half of the season whether I liked the play or not and made a mint. Bad team straight up does not = bad team at the spread.

Similarly some great teams straight up have terrible ATS records. The two things are completely different

thanks for your thoughts, i disagree though

[stickbit]

I am, but as I have suggested 100 times, it's working for me, but in no means am I suggesting it to anyone. I have not properly backtested it past last season, and I stopped testing because I am focusing on 7/5 for JM, and a new bet strategy for Chase 110 to eliminate the M/L plays. I don't know why this won't sink in, it has been stated countless times, to play it the way you always have, and if we determine that another bet strategy is better than the current, I promise, we will let everyone know immediately. And even better, I will post it in BIG BOLD LETTERS so no one misses it.

This was answering the question in post #1358 which has since been removed.
Question was: Am I still chasing B&C, if A bet wins buying three points, but not ATS?

seriously? why do people not read this F&*KING thread and ask the same question over and over and over...then Wallco has to answer it everyday. Come on people its not hard!! Wallco you have the patience of a saint.

[Nino7]

calm down guys i just asked for a yes or a no rather than reading 1300 posts

[alexknyc]

calm down guys i just asked for a yes or a no rather than reading 1300 posts

You wouldn't have had to read 1300 posts. You just would have had to have read the previous day's posts, when the last perdon who couldn't be bothered to read asked the same question.

[COBRA31]

The two systems are completely separate and have no bearing on each other. You play the Wallco C bet, and (if you play the A bets) then you play the A bet for JM. Don't understand why there would be any confusion as the two sytems have nothing to do with each other.

I actually love Charlotte at the Lakers as a play, the past head to head covering record of the Bobcats is impossible to ignore, I'm gonna make a play on the Bobcats as my own 'personal' play. I very rarely place my own bets on the NBA but when there is a covering streak like Char against Lakers I ride it hard until it breaks!

Ok..got it. I was not confused on them being two separate systems non dependent on each other. Was just wondering if playing both on the same team looking for the same outcome made sense. Not sure if it had been discussed not overlapping systems.

Appreciate the clarification....and yes, I like Charlotte to cover ATS.