John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Maxi_EV]

A lot of gamblers are out of shape so any good health tips or daily regiments would be appreciated. I know it has nothing to do with JM or Wallco's systems, but we are all online buds here, so healthy conversation is always good. For those not interested just scroll through and find Thelimit or Wallco's post and ignore everyone else.

I am actually in pretty decent shape, but i eat a lot of junk and dont work out. I guess i am some what blessed not to be obese with everything I eat. I am looking to get into better shape probably with P90x or some of my own workouts. I do have a gym membership but usually only go 1 or 2 times a week to play basketball.

One thing exercise does have to do with JM and Wallco is that great exercise will actually help control your sports betting in a way. The stress relieve caused from working out helps you feel more relaxed when you lose 20 units in the same night. I would like to hear what some of you do to keep in shape when your away from sports betting.

--JMD

The problem with most gamblers (if not all) id the ability to accept variance. I'm a poker player, and believe me, my game has imroved so much since I commited myself to keep a clear mental and emotional state. Tilt control! No more playing out of bankroll to "make my money back!". Acceptance...
So yes, go to the gym, eat healthy, keep yourself in a good shape. Your head AND your heart will be clean.
All of us know there is also tilt involved in sports betting. Control yourself. ACCEPT VARIANCE.

Play with variance simulators online. Look what it is really.

The day I realized I could flip 1 000 000 times a coin @ +100 and that by doing that I would be up or down 1 000 units 95% of the time...I embraced variance.

Good topic you are coming up with. That shows how serious you are into all that!

BOL to you!

[Swan4brownlow]

Not always true man.. i wish it was that easy.... had my roll to 45k two summers ago.. went almost bust before stopping and starting over at 7k (doing less the 1% per unit).

Its a tough business, especially with chasing involved like this thread is about.

Im grinding my way back up closer to 30k again... and hate to say it, but will never chase again.. at least no more then 2 games. There is a reason chasing has such a bad name to it.. No matter how great the system, they will all have their bad moments.. I love the new ideas in this thread. The two game chase is the way to go if possible.. I look foward to seeing wallcos results. I wish I could help.. but unfortunately I still have a real job thats eats up all my time haha

BOL

dlunc, if you don't mind me asking, how long did it take to build your bank roll up that much and how many different types of systems did you play? Having only just started with what I consider to be a small bankroll of 1K and betting units that are 1% I only dream of one day having a bankroll that large! I've also only just started playing the JM system, but also plan to jump on board Wallco's chase 110 when the new money management system is worked out. Being from Australia, we don't really have sports that i think would suit a system play. Maybe i need to look into following a MLB system or something else when the NBA season is over. It's great to hear that it can be done because I guess that's what we are all here trying to do. I have no doubt that there are other poster here with equally successful stories.

[bauerranch]

One of the best sentences I have even seen on this site was just by Maxi

The problem with most gamblers (if not all) is the ability to accept variance

Until you understand this and work it daily as a grind you will be lucky to get out with your original bank roll.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

[Maxi_EV]

a 90% drop in your bankroll is huge. Did you look back and see what mistakes you made? Some times it is not clear what mistakes your making besides just following a proven system that has had a bad year. My mistake as always is inventing my own systems and trying to follow too many systems at once.

Also for those following all these systems and 1% or 2% or .5% keep coming up. There was a good discussion last year about using a percentage of your bankroll as a unit size and using a set unit size for the entire season.

For those who have smaller bankroll and looking to increase their bankrolls as fast as possible, some times a percentage is best way of doing it. Other times it causes a giant roller coaster ride and hard to keep track of exact unit amounts you are up.

I will follow wallco's advice from last year, maybe it was wilba, but anyways starting next season or when ever I come back I hope to have a big enough bankroll with a set unit amount instead of a percentage. A lot easier to keep track of and you do not have to worry about wiping our your bankroll with a huge knicks loss (if it had happened). If you use 1% great, but later in the season that same 1% may wipe out all your previous profit from earlier in the season.

I think stagnant unit size is best way to do it season to season. Ok thats all from me for today. Good Luck once again Gents.

-JMD

He was probably using the " % of ACTUAL bankroll" method instead of " % of ORIGINAL bankroll ".

I have played a lot with simulators comparing those 2 methods. Yes, % of ACTUAL bankroll can skyrocket, but it WILL also downswing violently!

I am a grinder. I set my unit size at the beginning of season and just grind...

Tip: split the year in two. There's spring/summer with MLB. Then fall/winter with NHL, NBA, NFL. Review your unit at the beginning of those 2 periods only. It gives shorter goals. But please, don't increase your bets during a period. Be patient and grind.

Realize that starting with a 10K roll, grinding 33% of ORIGINAL roll every 6 months, you would be sitting on a 100K roll in 4 years only. Then you can start playing it safe in terms of roll management and make a decent living out of it!

BOL

[thelimit0310]

JM January 25

V3 INDIANA +11.5 @ Chicago (A) WIN

*Unofficial* NEW JERSEY +11.5 @ Philadelphia (B) WIN

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 8-4
B: 2-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 1-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 14-7
B: 5-2
C: 2-0

Totals
A: 23-13
B: 9-4
C: 4-0

[thelimit0310]

JM January 26

No Plays

[Nino7]

Wallco do u have a system such as chase -110 or ur own bankroll management for the MLB ? cuze i used to play the JMs and it doesnt work that well...thx

[Nino7]

He was probably using the " % of ACTUAL bankroll" method instead of " % of ORIGINAL bankroll ". I have played a lot with simulators comparing those 2 methods. Yes, % of ACTUAL bankroll can skyrocket, but it WILL also downswing violently! I am a grinder. I set my unit size at the beginning of season and just grind... Tip: split the year in two. There's spring/summer with MLB. Then fall/winter with NHL, NBA, NFL. Review your unit at the beginning of those 2 periods only. It gives shorter goals. But please, don't increase your bets during a period. Be patient and grind. Realize that starting with a 10K roll, grinding 33% of ORIGINAL roll every 6 months, you would be sitting on a 100K roll in 4 years only. Then you can start playing it safe in terms of roll management and make a decent living out of it! BOL

I think if a system works overall then a % of the actual BR is the way to go,whatever swing ull take.If you decide to bet $1 from a $100 starting bankroll then why wouldnt you want to play $1,5 when you hit $150? or $1,1 from $110?? if 1% is good then less is a waste of time.It's like starting everyday with a new bankroll increased a little everyday.Because you won yesterday wont make your next bet more risky so 1% or 5% or 0,5% or whatever is still optimal on long run.
AM I WRONG?

[Maxi_EV]

I think if a system works overall then a % of the actual BR is the way to go,whatever swing ull take.If you decide to bet $1 from a $100 starting bankroll then why wouldnt you want to play $1,5 when you hit $150? or $1,1 from $110?? if 1% is good then less is a waste of time.It's like starting everyday with a new bankroll increased a little everyday.Because you won yesterday wont make your next bet more risky so 1% or 5% or 0,5% or whatever is still optimal on long run.
AM I WRONG?

When you will lose one series and your roll will be down to let's say 65$...
...will you be disciplined enough and patient to set your unit to 0.65$.
It will be longer to recover.

[Maxi_EV]

When you will lose one series and your roll will be down to let's say 65$...
...will you be disciplined enough and patient to set your unit to 0.65$.
It will be longer to recover.

I will answer this myself:

You will probably convince yourself that continuing betting 1$ is OK and that you will "make your money back"...like every gambler.

Result: FAIL

[Nino7]

yeah but theorically and mathematically its the way to go isnt it?
the only weak point with this method is "a loss will happen when the bankroll is "big" and the wins will happen when the bankroll is "small" but whenever ur on a 80-0 streak,it becomes insane

[Nino7]

could anyone tell me where did the discussion about this took place?

[Maxi_EV]

yeah but theorically and mathematically its the way to go isnt it?
the only weak point with this method is "a loss will happen when the bankroll is "big" and the wins will happen when the bankroll is "small" but whenever ur on a 80-0 streak,it becomes insane

For a 100$ starting roll, 80-0 will end as a 220$ roll using " % of actual roll" method.
It is not that insane considering that " % oF original roll " method woul create a 180$ roll. Yes it is 1.5 x more profit but when the first loss WILL occur, it will be quite different. Imagine the first loss occurs after that great 80-0 streak. Let's take the HUGE loss that the system just dodged recently with Knicks. We are talking of 80 units loss!!!
You would have ended with a 44$ roll.
I would have ended with a 100$ roll.

Even if trying to minimize your loss on the series ( like I did by playing the -110 line instead of ML on the D bet) the series loss would have been 60 units!

You end up with 88$
I end up with 120$

Don't blind yourself. Chase 110 goes pretty well now but losses WILL occur!

[Nino7]

...yeah but ur taking a bad exemple cuze its not supposed to go -80 units for a loss but i got ur point...i ll think about it

U mean the +winnings are just virtual cuze a loss will wipe them all out.
Lets say a loss = -20 units.

from $220 i end up with $176 and u end up with $160.
actually it depends much on the win/loss ratio.

[1gamer]

There's and old Sports Betting adage and it goes something like this: "It's a marathon, not a sprint". CHASE -110, JM V 1,2,3, are all "Proven" Chase "Systems"

Let the day to day wins and losses take care of themselves.

[Maxi_EV]

...yeah but ur taking a bad exemple cuze its not supposed to go -80 units for a loss but i got ur point...i ll think about it

U mean the +winnings are just virtual cuze a loss will wipe them all out.
Lets say a loss = -20 units.

from $220 i end up with $176 and u end up with $160.
actually it depends much on the win/loss ratio.

It depends more on WHEN your win and losses will occur. With your method, you NEED winning streak before a loss. If you start with a loss early in the season, then you will find it hard to comeback. Since we can't control those outcomes, I don't like it. But of course it can be sick skyrocket! I played a lot with simulators in the past comparing those 2 methods and yours is all or nothing. So it's a gamble into gambling!

I prefer to grind. But it's still safe to assume that with a system like Chase 110, chances are good that you will have your beginning winning streak.

For the example I took, maybe 80 units is HUGE, but I took that FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF. That is what happened to us reently. I also gave you an example with a D bet at -110 if you decide to play it safe for your roll...Chasing in NBA with some ML bets is expensive.

The more I think of it the more it is similar to my roll approach for poker:
The smaller your roll, the more aggressive you should be with it. The opposite is also true. That's why, if I had a 100$ roll, I would give it a shot for sure. But at 10K...I would suggest to grind...

But don't get me wrong...I LOVE true gamblers that will show us a sick graph once in a while! It's simply not in my nature.

BOL

[Maxi_EV]

Nino, I will try to find the simulator I played with and give it to you. I lost it, but I can contact the guy who gave it to me. It was an excel sheet. There is probably one available for download somewhere on the internet...

[Nino7]

ok nice

[Riceboi]

Off topic, but Does anyone know a site that tracks what the closing team totals for each game (for many past seasons)?

Thanks

[J.M. Disciple]

Hey Maxi, where do you play poker at? I use to play poker for a living for 3 years, but then online poker got shut down which forced me to work at my current job. I was a low level grinder starting with some sngs and mtts and moved to FR after that.

I know online poker for usa is still in legislation until next year, but im curious if you play on any good sites that allow USA players. Most sites i seen are extremely small compared to PS or FTP or maybe you play live games only idk.

Yes, we all need to embrace variance and stick with a unit size at beginning of season. Once I start sports betting again I will def be graphing my results. Maybe with all the systems you all are following you can combine the spread sheets and make a sick graph for everyone to see.

If anyone can make a graph from last season with all the systems they were following points will be rewarded. Im interested in seeing graphs like that coming from a poker background. It truely helps embrace the variance. Also the expected value in the graph would be good to see if possible.

thanks
JMD

[Wallco99]

Wallco do u have a system such as chase -110 or ur own bankroll management for the MLB ? cuze i used to play the JMs and it doesnt work that well...thx

My units are $100 for every system right now. So when I do 1-3-5, is $100, $300, $500. And so on.

[Wallco99]

Off topic, but Does anyone know a site that tracks what the closing team totals for each game (for many past seasons)?

Thanks

Covers.com

[Nino7]

where are the details of the 1/3/5 br mangement?i dunno if its to win $100 on A,$300 on B (+A) and $500 profit on C (+A+B) or...something else like to win $100 on A,to win $300 on B and to win $500 on C risking $880 total?

[Wallco99]

where are the details of the 1/3/5 br mangement?i dunno if its to win $100 on A,$300 on B (+A) and $500 profit on C (+A+B) or...something else like to win $100 on A,to win $300 on B and to win $500 on C risking $880 total?

Total loss is 17.28 units.

[J.M. Disciple]

A) =$110 TO WIN $100

B) A Loss + $300
= $451 - $410

C) A+B loss ($561) + $500
=$1167 to win $1,061

Total Risk $1,728

[COBRA31]

where are the details of the 1/3/5 br mangement?i dunno if its to win $100 on A,$300 on B (+A) and $500 profit on C (+A+B) or...something else like to win $100 on A,to win $300 on B and to win $500 on C risking $880 total?

I had the same question recently. See post #1186

Wallco was kind enough to confirm it was correct a few posts later.

[dlunc3]

My units are $100 for every system right now. So when I do 1-3-5, is $100, $300, $500. And so on.

what % of your bankroll is your unit size Wallco?

[Wallco99]

A) =$110 TO WIN $100

B) A Loss + $300
= $451 - $410

C) A+B loss ($561) + $500
=$1167 to win $1,061

Total Risk $1,728

HEY!!! That's cheating. That was a test question for him, I wanted to see if he could get the answer based on my info. I know he could have done it.

[Wallco99]

what % of your bankroll is your unit size Wallco?

It changes every day, I rarely change my unit size, so % fluctuates. I will soon be upping it to 200, bankroll has been doing well lately.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 23-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +23.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 17-6
(B) 2-4
(C) 2-2
(D) 2-0

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/27/12):
#24 Charlotte (**) @ Philadelphia (A) (7:05 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Nino7]

whats ur bankroll size ? :P

[Swan4brownlow]

It changes every day, I rarely change my unit size, so % fluctuates. I will soon be upping it to 200, bankroll has been doing well lately.

Haha wow that is an absolute BEAST. Kudos to you wallco, you bring so much good info and knowledge to this board, sharing it with everyone and answering the same questions day in and day out, great to see you're killing it, gives us all hope!

[adidas-b 88]

JM Plays for January 27

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves (A)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors (A)


TheLimit0310: I'm posting these plays for people who wants to see these plays early throughout the day, you can re post if you like.

[dratk00l]

JM Plays for January 27 San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves (A) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors (A) TheLimit0310: I'm posting these plays for people who wants to see these plays early throughout the day, you can re post if you like.

I believe, is my spreadsheet is correct, these are both Version 3 system plays.

BOL everyone!
-D

[Nino7]

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