John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-02-12, 05:09 PM

There is one problem with the back test. If you are increasing the units the loss +3 units on B its only 17 unit loss at -110 odds. If you are buying points then it is roughly 33 units a loss between -170 to -190.

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-02-12, 05:11 PM

wallco is correct; it was his idea last season, i vaguely remember it. Wilba was doing a chase of 3 units on B and following it with C.

PS
David Lee is out for the warriors? i did not even see that in the injury report!

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-02-12, 05:13 PM

phx is pulling away in the 2nd half with no one to rebound, phx will have a lot more 2nd shot attempts. They are +15 right now in extra shot attempts! not looking good!

**thelimit0310** · 01-02-12, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

There is one problem with the back test. If you are increasing the units the loss +3 units on B its only 17 unit loss at -110 odds. If you are buying points then it is roughly 33 units a loss between -170 to -190.

While you are correct, I already addressed this in my post. If you are wagering at -110, which you need to be to have the 17.28 unit loss, then there will be around 1-3 extra losses by seasons end. That would lower the 204 net gain down to 152, which is still incredible. If you read my post you'll notice that even with SIX more losses than what was recorded last season (for a total of 13 losses) you are still around 100 units total.

Such beauty brings a tear to my eye

**pm9964** · 01-02-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by TRE1968

i just labby games 2 and 3 buy the points it was 67 and 30 last season nothing wrong with that

hell yea this man knows his shit!

**Wallco99** · 01-02-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

For everyone wanting a backtest on Wallco's method I did a quick backtest from last years record, the results are:

Version 1 results = +69.16 units
Version 2 results = +54.72 units
Version 3 results = +80.16 units
Net units won = +204.04

This is to win 1 unit on A, win net 3 units on B, and win net 5 units on C. Losses equate to -17.28 units. Keep in mind this is with 3 points bought. Meaning that there could be 1-2 more series losses then what was posted. Even with another loss per version taken into account, the total units won is still at ~152.2 , 2 losses more per version and your still at over 100 units at +100.36. Winning over 100 units with a total of 13 losses over all versions is pretty incredible.

The amount of gross units using this method is incredible, but unfortunately the losses take a toll on them, making net units roughly half of what it could be, but still a fantastic outcome nonetheless. I commend you Wallco, you probably weren't even trying, but you may have just created the greatest JM money management system I have ever seen.

Should be noted that this year there are obviously not nearly the amount of plays, so the outcome could look different and even go negative depending on how the season plays out.

Actually, I was trying. I ran about 20 different scenarios last season and this one seemed to be the most profitable. I am doing the backtests to see how well it applies to actual series before last year. To answer your other question about what if the (A) bets start hitting, well, I'll still be picking up the same 1 unit as everyone else, and since (A) bets win at such a low percentage over the history of the NBA, I really don't think it will hurt me at all. If I'm lucky, they will all go to (B).

**pm9964** · 01-02-12, 05:32 PM

System plays for Monday January 2, 2012

Wallco99
#2 Washington (+12) @ Boston (B)

JM
V1 MILWAUKEE +7.5 @ Denver (A)
V3 GOLDEN STATE +6.5 @ Phoenix (A)
V3 INDIANA -2.5 @ New Jersey (B)
V3 ATLANTA +13 @ Miami (B)

**Wallco99** · 01-02-12, 05:37 PM

Don't worry everyone, I will complete the backtest and post all the results. I do not expect anyone to do my work for me. Just continue playing the games the way you always have until I have finished.

**Wallco99** · 01-02-12, 05:39 PM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 2-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +2.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

(1/1/12):
#2 Washington (+7) (A) - Loss
#3 Sacramento (M/L) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 2-1
(B) -
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production

Games for (1/2/12):
#2 Washington (+11) @ Boston (B) (7:35 pm EST)

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettors responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-02-12, 05:40 PM

Wallco Back test 2010-2011 season
3 road games -110 odds.

boston:
A 3-4
B 3-1
C 1-0

NJN
A 2-3
B 3-0
C

NYK
A 3-2
B 2-0
C

PHI
A 4-1
B 0-1
C 1-0

TOR
A 4-2
B 1-1
C 0-1

A: 16-12 (1x16) - (12x1.1) = +2.8u
B: 9-3 (9x4.1) - (3x4.51) = +23.37
C: 2-1 (2x10.61) - (11.67) = +9.55
Net Profit: 35.72u
Record: 27-1

Bet (A) risk 1.1 to win 1
Bet (B) risk 4.51 to win 4.1 (net +3 units)
Bet (C) risk 11.67 to win 10.61 (net +5 units)

If someone could test some of the other divisions in same fashion it would be much appreciated then we can get the actual results. This was based on covers.com closing spreads for the game. Its a bit tedious, but if we can all get this done, then maybe we can double our profits this season.

Let me know if there are any questions about my numbers. I think its pretty striaght forward.

**thelimit0310** · 01-02-12, 05:53 PM

What are you up to JM? Your saying we should play Wallco's method for every game and every team? Why? Wallco has said he is running a few years of backtests so I'd say let him finish up and we'll go from there. In the meantime, I just might jump on the method anyway.

**thelimit0310** · 01-02-12, 05:55 PM

Wallco can you do me a favor and when you backtest check out the 98-99 shortened season? If you think its necessary, it would be nice to see how it stacks up against a shortened, off schedule season.

**edh1011** · 01-02-12, 06:25 PM

I see Sports Betting Professor is also on Atlanta and Washington. Also a good system in NBA. I can't say I like Indiana as a road favorite, even against the Nets. Thinking about doing a ML parlay with Indy and San Antonio to reduce juice. The Spurs are playing Minnesota and have owned them in recent years. Or I might just stay completely off Indy.

**DustyDiamond** · 01-02-12, 06:28 PM

Thanks JM, pagodo, and thelimit for the insight on my labby. I really do appreciate the help and education I am receiving from everyone here.

**cmdyrds** · 01-02-12, 06:32 PM

mitch p,

im back on it this year. shoot me an email if you need the sheets.

**Wallco99** · 01-02-12, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Wallco Back test 2010-2011 season
3 road games -110 odds.

boston:
A 3-4
B 3-1
C 1-0

NJN
A 2-3
B 3-0
C

NYK
A 3-2
B 2-0
C

PHI
A 4-1
B 0-1
C 1-0

TOR
A 4-2
B 1-1
C 0-1

A: 16-12 (1x16) - (12x1.1) = +2.8u
B: 9-3 (9x4.1) - (3x4.51) = +23.37
C: 2-1 (2x10.61) - (11.67) = +9.55
Net Profit: 35.72u
Record: 27-1

Bet (A) risk 1.1 to win 1
Bet (B) risk 4.51 to win 4.1 (net +3 units)
Bet (C) risk 11.67 to win 10.61 (net +5 units)

If someone could test some of the other divisions in same fashion it would be much appreciated then we can get the actual results. This was based on covers.com closing spreads for the game. Its a bit tedious, but if we can all get this done, then maybe we can double our profits this season.

Let me know if there are any questions about my numbers. I think its pretty striaght forward.

Don't worry, I have a pretty quick method for back tests, I will try to get them tonight.

**Wallco99** · 01-02-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Wallco can you do me a favor and when you backtest check out the 98-99 shortened season? If you think its necessary, it would be nice to see how it stacks up against a shortened, off schedule season.

Absolutely, I will check that season. In the meantime, everyone stick with their normal bet strategies until I can prove it is a winner. I realize people are trying to save me time and run the backtest for me, I appreciate that. But no offense to anyone at all, but I need to do my own tests to assure results are accurate.

**Wallco99** · 01-02-12, 10:00 PM

Two more +3 unit (B) bet wins. Gotta love that -110. Oh yeah, and Washington won too.

**stevex** · 01-02-12, 10:05 PM

Love nights like this and hopefully will have a lot more before the short season is over. SBP and JM NBA are starting out with a bang. Cheers to that money coming in!

**Wallco99** · 01-03-12, 05:43 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 3-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +3.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/2/12):
#2 Washington (+11) (B) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 2-1
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production

There are no system plays for (1/3/12):

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

**Swan4brownlow** · 01-03-12, 07:06 AM

Guys, sorry for the noob question, been reading through this thread and it's clear a lot of guys here really know what they're talking about. Just wonder, as I'd like to understand this system and maybe look at playing it, if anyone can point me to a thread or website that helps to explain what the V1, V2, V3 bets are and A, B, C bets. Also, to play this system, what size bankroll would you suggest is adequate to begin with? Thanks in advance to whoever can help me!

**Kev the Brit** · 01-03-12, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Swan4brownlow

Guys, sorry for the noob question, been reading through this thread and it's clear a lot of guys here really know what they're talking about. Just wonder, as I'd like to understand this system and maybe look at playing it, if anyone can point me to a thread or website that helps to explain what the V1, V2, V3 bets are and A, B, C bets. Also, to play this system, what size bankroll would you suggest is adequate to begin with? Thanks in advance to whoever can help me!

Read the attachment below, which describes the V1 and V2 systems. The V3 system has no conference restrictions. Additionally, backtesting by reputable people here has proven that the A Bet should be avoided and that the target unit for the B and C bet should be 3 times what an A Bet unit would have been.

Wallco has produced an amended system that does not buy the 3 points and targets 1, 3 and 5 units profit during the chase.

Finally, not mentioned in the pdf, JM has recently added a new strategy: if the selected team is fav by more than 3 points ATS, do not buy the points, simply play the ML. Its a debatable tactic.

Target unit should be no more than 1% of BR. A series failure will cost approx 18 units. Due to the rarity of such an event, the remaining 82 units can be used to recover the lost 18 units over the next 5 series, by betting to win 5 units in each series. Any C bet during the recovery period is harem scarem. Or you could labby, but I'm not an expert on that. JMD is boring us to death with his thoughts on it.

Good luck

**thelimit0310** · 01-03-12, 01:53 PM

January 2

V1 MILWAUKEE +7.5 @ Denver (A) WIN
V3 GOLDEN STATE +6.5 @ Phoenix (A) LOSS
V3 INDIANA -2.5 @ New Jersey (B) WIN
V3 ATLANTA +13 @ Miami (B) WIN

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 2-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 0-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 1-6
B: 4-0
C: 0-0

Totals
A: 3-8
B: 4-2
C: 2-0

NOTES: Great night yesterday for JM. You'll notice Milwaukee won last night with 3 points bought, but did not win on the straight spread (listed spread was 4.5 on covers, half a point from pushing). We knew from the beginning this was going to happen, and this could end up being a losing series if Milwaukee can't cover their next 2 games. That was the risk we took when we stopped buying points, but it shouldn't cause too much of a problem. As for the official record, Milwaukee is counted as a win.

**thelimit0310** · 01-03-12, 02:00 PM

JM January 3

V3 HOUSTON +10 @ LA Lakers (A)
V3 CHARLOTTE +7 @ Cleveland (B)

*Unofficial* V1 MILWAUKEE +3 @ Utah (B) *Only a bet if you were not buying 3 points and subsequently lost the Milwaukee (A) last night*

All plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

**DollarBill10** · 01-03-12, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

JM January 3

V3 HOUSTON +10 @ LA Lakers (A)

*Unofficial* V1 MILWAUKEE +3 @ Utah (B) *Only a bet if you were not buying 3 points and subsequently lost the Milwaukee (A) last night*

All plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

I believe CHARLOTTE (B) falls into the same situation as Milwaukee...please correct me if I am wrong.

**TRE1968** · 01-03-12, 03:17 PM

no char is a b they got killed last gm

**TRE1968** · 01-03-12, 03:21 PM

houst A bet
Char B bet

**thelimit0310** · 01-03-12, 03:35 PM

Sorry guys I had missed Charlotte, that is also a B bet today no matter if you bought points or not. Edited my post for the fix.

**DollarBill10** · 01-03-12, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Sorry guys I had missed Charlotte, that is also a B bet today no matter if you bought points or not. Edited my post for the fix.

OK thanks...I didn't have the score in front to see if it was official or not.

Thanks and let's get'em!!!

**Wallco99** · 01-03-12, 03:51 PM

Does anyone have krzychu78's final results from last season. I want to compare the backtest I just did to his to make sure I didn't miss any series. The 1,3,5 looks pretty damn awesome for last year's results.

**J.M. Disciple** · 01-03-12, 04:35 PM

guys im done. I believe the last three bets of the day cleared the labby line, so there are no #s left. If someone wants to pick up where I left off they are more then welcome to do so.

Should be +11 units where I left off. Who ever wants to take over with my post can do so. I wont have any time for sports betting due to work with a lot of family stuff going on as well. Sports betting is not really worth the time right now with a small bankroll. I need to focus on other things.

I'll stop in once in a great while to see whats going on and see if Wallco's strategy with 1-3-5 works for next season. Hopefully with all the work im putting in I will have a really nice bankroll by then and no more $10 unit size.

Good Luck to All rest of the season.
Special thanks to Wallco and Thelimit0310 for all the help and post with the updated records of everything

--JMD

**thelimit0310** · 01-03-12, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Does anyone have krzychu78's final results from last season. I want to compare the backtest I just did to his to make sure I didn't miss any series. The 1,3,5 looks pretty damn awesome for last year's results.

Wallco, here is an exact copy of the final post:

JM's NBA system (injury filter and ML filter are not applied):
04/08/2011 Chicago @ Cleveland- V3, A bet - WIN

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 67-3
(A): 41-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)
GS 03/18-21

Next JM's plays:
System of 2010/2011 is over now. Hope we'll meet again in the autumn.

-- Hope to see the results soon! From my own experience backtesting, I want to jump on this method asap!

**Swan4brownlow** · 01-03-12, 05:21 PM

So if I've got this right, Wallco would be betting to win 3 units on Charlotte and Milwaukee today and 1 unit on Houston and he just bets ATS and doesn't bother with buying 3 points?

**manutd19** · 01-03-12, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Swan4brownlow

So if I've got this right, Wallco would be betting to win 3 units on Charlotte and Milwaukee today and 1 unit on Houston and he just bets ATS and doesn't bother with buying 3 points?

you are correct.

**Kev the Brit** · 01-03-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by Swan4brownlow

So if I've got this right, Wallco would be betting to win 3 units on Charlotte and Milwaukee today and 1 unit on Houston and he just bets ATS and doesn't bother with buying 3 points?

Yes and no. He will be betting to win 4.1 units ATS (@ odds of -110) on each of the 2 B Bets, from which he will deduct the lost 1.1 units from the 2 lost A Bets, thus producing a nett profit of 3 units from each chase.