John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[adidas-b 88]

Oh yeah, anyone get any emails from John Morrison yet lol???

[adidas-b 88]

I'm most probably not going to touch the Cha/Ny game today. Amare is most likely going to play, and cha losing yesterday to cleveland does not give me confidence they can cover the spread today. Especially with Cha having a really bad defense and I bet this will be a game NY comes around and gets their offense going and starts building their offensive rhythm of what an offensive team they can truly be. Feedback???

[adidas-b 88]

Does anyone know if David Lee is playing today? All websites are stating he's questionable.

[sthrncross]

for all of you who play John's system, you must have a book that allows you to buy points up to 3, so curious what books yall use, my site, legends, only allows up to 1. THX in advance

[adidas-b 88]

for all of you who play John's system, you must have a book that allows you to buy points up to 3, so curious what books yall use, my site, legends, only allows up to 1. THX in advance

I use sportsbetting.com that sportsbook only allows max 3, and I also use betus.com that sportsbook allows you more than 3 points.

[Wallco99]

Thanks for the credit lawalahmed - you are basically right - Wallco has taken my backtest proved idea and very slightly modified it to call it his own. Wallco I can save you the backtesting and tell you now that the way you are suggested (net 1/3/5 units for A/B/C) is well more profitable than playing to win net 1/1/1 unit on A/B/C. No need to backtest it yourself I spent hours explaining it in last years thread.

What you are suggesting is exactly the same as what I already proved in last years thread (all documented, feel free to check if you don't believe me) but the only difference in 'your' model is that you are adding playing to win 1 unit on A bet (which nets 0 units over 10 seasons - you don't lose money but don't gain money either) and instead of playing to win net 3 units on B and C like I said to, you are playing to win 3/5 units on B/C. So exactly the same except you are weighting the C bets even more heavily than I was
Just look up last years thread and save yourself the wasted time backtesting.

I am not going to argue. Your premice was for a B & C only bet system, playing it with buying 3 points and playing to win 3 on B and C. Mine is for all -110 bets, A, B, & C, and 1 unit, 3 units, and 5 units of profit. If that is the same thing, then blue and red are the same color. It's very different. Who cares anyway, but until last week, no one has laid out a bet strategy this way, until I put it up here. I have always been a supporter of you and the information you provide, and I still am.

[Wallco99]

Wilba the key difference, as Kev already explained, is that in Wallco's method you do not buy points or play the ML and play all lines at -110. This makes series losses roughly half of what it would be, though it does add another loss or two throughout all versions.

Just as Kev stated I would like to hear your thoughts on this as well.

Actually, the losses are only 1.4 units less, but the profits on many of the winning games is much higher. Wilba's method was for increasing unit size and betting less games while buying extra points. My method is for betting more games, with less juice, for more money. They may be similar, but they are definitely not the same.

[Wallco99]

I'm most probably not going to touch the Cha/Ny game today. Amare is most likely going to play, and cha losing yesterday to cleveland does not give me confidence they can cover the spread today. Especially with Cha having a really bad defense and I bet this will be a game NY comes around and gets their offense going and starts building their offensive rhythm of what an offensive team they can truly be. Feedback???

It may suck to put money on a lousy team, but I am not a fan of skipping bets. Even bad teams cover spreads quite often. If not, the books would be out of business.

[dlunc3]

Wallco, do you have each version, v1 v2 + v3, the same? Meaning do you bet the same amount on each?

[Wallco99]

Wallco, do you have each version, v1 v2 + v3, the same? Meaning do you bet the same amount on each?

Yes, Wilba may be right as far as percentages, but I weigh them all the same for now.

[stevex]

BIG night for us JM followers!

Lets make that money fellas...

[Wilba]

I am not going to argue. Your premice was for a B & C only bet system, playing it with buying 3 points and playing to win 3 on B and C. Mine is for all -110 bets, A, B, & C, and 1 unit, 3 units, and 5 units of profit. If that is the same thing, then blue and red are the same color. It's very different. Who cares anyway, but until last week, no one has laid out a bet strategy this way, until I put it up here. I have always been a supporter of you and the information you provide, and I still am.

Fair enough, and you are right - it is not the same thing. I apologise if I made it out to be exactly the same, I just meant that it is based on the same principle - that the further into the series a team goes, the higher the winning % becomes. (for A/B/C)

Great work running the thread Wallco keep up the good work

[Wilba]

Wilba the key difference, as Kev already explained, is that in Wallco's method you do not buy points or play the ML and play all lines at -110. This makes series losses roughly half of what it would be, though it does add another loss or two throughout all versions.

Just as Kev stated I would like to hear your thoughts on this as well.

I am a believer in buying the 3 points, and I have never backtested properly exactly the difference between buying/not buying far enough back to know for sure. I did 5 seasons, and over those 5 seasons buying the 3 points ended up ahead of not buying, so personally I stick with the points.

My gut instinct is that it would work out pretty close to even over the long haul either way

[Wilba]

It may suck to put money on a lousy team, but I am not a fan of skipping bets. Even bad teams cover spreads quite often. If not, the books would be out of business.

Wallco - you are 100% right. Skipping bets will definitely cost you in the long run. Skipping ANY [C] bet is the worst thing you can do, as the odds are more heavily stacked in your favour than for any other series bet, no matter how lousy the team is..

[stevex]

1. Never skip a bet
2. Whether you buy the 3 points, don't buy the 3 points, labby or chase every thing basically finishes around the same at the end. The use of proper management is the common theme no matter what philosophy you follow or you'll end up broke.

[bisturis]

Is Toronto not a B bet tonight?? Dang, did I do something wrong?

[bauerranch]

1. Never skip a bet
2. Whether you buy the 3 points, don't buy the 3 points, labby or chase every thing basically finishes around the same at the end. The use of proper management is the common theme no matter what philosophy you follow or you'll end up broke.

You betcha!

[JW Cash]

Fair enough, and you are right - it is not the same thing. I apologise if I made it out to be exactly the same, I just meant that it is based on the same principle - that the further into the series a team goes, the higher the winning % becomes. (for A/B/C)

Great work running the thread Wallco keep up the good work

...nice seeing you again, Wilba.......

[dlunc3]

JM January 4

V3 CHICAGO -3 @ Detroit (A)
V3 MEMPHIS +7 @ Minnesota (A)
V2 CLEVELAND +8 @ Toronto (A)
V3 CHARLOTTE +14.5 @ NY Knicks (C)
V3 GOLDEN STATE +10.5 @ San Antonio (B)

*Unofficial* V3 HOUSTON +7.5 @ LA CLippers (B)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

looking like a 4-1 night... nice work boys

[TRE1968]

hous is official they didnt cover with the buy

[dlunc3]

hous is official they didnt cover with the buy

they covered vs la last night... spread was +7.5 and they lost by 9... so by buying 3, you hit with +10.5

[TRE1968]

my bad i thought they lost by 11

[dominate.]

checking in

[bisturis]

Yeah buddy! Awesome night fellas!

[Wallco99]

I believe Cleveland's next bet is a v1 (A) bet, as well as a v2 (B), since tonight's game was in conference and they lost to the spread by more than 3.

[manutd19]

Missed those games yesterday and am in red presently. Hopefuly someone can explain how to pick the v3 and v2 as i only hav the v1 system here

[Wallco99]

Missed those games yesterday and am in red presently. Hopefuly someone can explain how to pick the v3 and v2 as i only hav the v1 system here

Kevin posted the PDF's yesterday, please read the thread.

[adidas-b 88]

Lebron James and Dwyane Wade are questionable for tomm's game against the Hawks

[Wilba]

...nice seeing you again, Wilba.......

You too mate! I've been keeping my head down, but now that the NBA season is back on I'm in full swing again

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 4-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +4.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/4/12):
#4 Charlotte (+11½) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 3-1
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (1/5/12):

[shermanator]

can someone post up a spreadsheet for all of JM's NBA plays throughout this season. Points to the person who does.

[GGPLAYER]

can someone post up a spreadsheet for all of JM's NBA plays throughout this season. Points to the person who does.

You don't have any points

[sthrncross]

You don't have any points

ha! boom roasted

[knugen]

Miami is a V3 play tonight

[manutd19]

Is milwaukee not a C Bet today?