Manutd19, plz, read one post above yours and wallco Said which post he explained his method in...
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i was thinking the same thing. "1 post above" LOL u
Also asking if i ever won money with the labby; are you suggesting I dont know what im doing? The answer is yes I have won money with the labby in small amounts. I have never been a big bettor except when i first started and didn't know what i was doing. Took me a while to learn money management, but still have trouble once in a while applying it. My biggest problem is that I hold the labby on a pedestal and treat it so highly. I forget some times that even with a system that only needs to win 34% of the time; money management is still the most important part.
If we had a few A bet wins then the labby would surely be cleared. If someone thinks my numbers are off they can go back and look at the win/loss record this season since christmas and check for themselves. Right now the numbers look good though. I am down 8 units with over 19 units in play. Which means when the labby line is cleared (possibly today) then the system will be up 11 units. A couple of 8 unit bets with proper money management should not be a problem.
You live you learn and you grown.
--JMDComment -
Still waiting for the goldenstate spread to be released on 5dimes....Comment -
Wallco, I read your post #324 when you posted it and I'm confused by your math. To win 1 unit @ -110, the stake is 1.1 units, to win 3 units the stake is 3.3 units and to win 5 units the stake is 5.5 units. Total risk is therefore only 9.9 units. You quoted total risk (series loss) as 17.28 units. I know that you are good at arithmetic, so what am I missing?
KevComment -
(A) 1.1 to win 1 (-1.1 on the series)
(B) to win 1.1 + 3.0 = 4.1 (-4.61 on the series)
(C) to win 5.61 + 5.0 = 10.61 (-17.28 on the series)
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did wallco plays m/l's on faves for the chase 110 last season? my memory is failing me.Comment -
Has anyone received any emails from Morrison lately concerning NBA system bets? I know I've pissed him off so he doesn't write me much anymore.Comment -
LOL, indeed. But seriously, guys, backtesting over the last 10 years has proven that only 59% of A Bets win. This was discussed at length last year. Don't forget that for every B or C bet that I win, you will need 3 A bets to win. So, if there is a streak of, say, 3 winning B or C bets, you will need a following streak of 9 winning A Bets, and any winning B or C bets that pop up in the winning A Bet streak only make it worse. The overal risk is also slightly less with the B and C only bets.
KevComment -
i just labby games 2 and 3 buy the points it was 67 and 30 last season nothing wrong with thatComment -
TRE1968
Can you tell ushow many units that came to?
MitchComment -
bout 35 unitsComment -
your lines dont get too long not much riskComment -
January 1
V3 CHARLOTTE +17 @ Miami (A) LOSS
V3 TORONTO +14.5 @ Orlando (B) WIN
RESULTS PER VERSION
Version 1
A: 1-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0
Version 2
A: 0-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-0
Version 3
A: 1-5
B: 2-0
C: 0-0
Totals
A: 2-7
B: 2-2
C: 2-0Comment -
January 2
V1 MILWAUKEE +7.5 @ Denver (A)
V3 GOLDEN STATE +6.5 @ Phoenix (A)
V3 INDIANA -2.5 @ New Jersey (B)
V3 ATLANTA +13 @ Miami (B)
All plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.Comment -
It is easy to make money with the labby if you are disciplined enough and use it correctly. I'm just coming off the MLB with some good labby money, Pagodo knows what I'm talking about!
Wallco's method has been very successful thus far because a staggering amount of our series have not won on the A bet. As far as I understand it, you are rewarded for going deeper into the series, granted if the series wins. Being up 17 units off 5 series sounds downright tasty though. Makes me want to give it a shot. But if the A bets turn around it wont be nearly as lucrative.Comment -
This is how I play my labby.
I use a 3 line labby and use the same 3 lines for everything. JM, WAL, etc.. I play all game 1s on line 1, game 2s on line 2 and game 3s on line 3.
For the set up I'll do.
Line 1 5 - 5 - 5- 5
Line 2 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
Line 3 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
If game 1 wins I cross out 2 places on line 1.
Line 1 x - 5 - 5- x
If game 1 loses I spread the loss between lines 1 and 2. (lets say I was risking 12 to win 10)
Line 1 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 6
Line 2 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 6
Line 3 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
I then average out the line.
Line 1 5.20 - 5.20 - 5.20 - 5.20 - 5.20
Line 2 would look the same as line 1
If I lose a (B) bet then I spread the loss between lines 2 and 3 using the process above.
What do you guys think of this method? Any flaws that I'm unaware of? I'm trying to figure out the best way to play labby for these systems. thelimit0310 had a good method for the 6 game chase shutout system, but not we are only chasing 3 here. Maybe only use 2 lines? I appreciate any thoughts people may have.Comment -
Can someone post last season results. Looking for a spread sheet to see how many units Wallco would have made with his strategy.
Thanks
Also GSW has the first game of the day so im risking $86.99 to win $79.08. This will clear two #s on my line. The next game start is 4 hours away, so GSW will be completely done with their game by that time. If i lose the bet then I will have 6#s on my line and be clearing two #s for each of the remaining 3 bets. If I win with GSW then there are 3#s on the line and ill be betting to clear 1# on each of the remaining 3 games.
New Line for Jan 02, 2012 $39.54 / 39.54 / 39.54 / 39.54 / 39.54
3:30 ET: GSW (A) vs Phx 86.99 to win 79.08
7:30 ET Indy (B) vs NJN
7:30 ET ATL (B) vs MIA
9:00 ET MIL (A) vs DenComment -
sorry to tell you this, but you are doing it wrong. If you win you are crossing off two #s and if you lose you are adding two #s. Yes, your bets will stay small, but that is not the way the labby was designed. If you cross two #s and add 2#s you need to win at least 50%. It will work, but i assure you the amount of #s on your line can get really big this way. You might as well do 1:1 if thats the case.
Also averaging two lines together is a bad idea. That is what is called global averaging with the labby. If you are adding units to your line when there are not enough #s and averaging out the lines, then it will not work out well and your line will continue to get bigger and bigger. If you go through the forum last season towards the end you will see "icebet" posted some spread sheets on this.
We found the best way to run the labby is 2-3-4 strike labby when you win and only add 1 # when you lose. Also single line averaging. If you are running multiple lines, do not average them together; keep each line seperate.
As long as your crossing out more #s then adding you will do fine. YOu could even do a cross 3 and add 2# if you want. Just make sure its not 2:2 or 1:1.
Another one you could do is have your four #s and cross two#s and add 0#s when you lose. just average the loss over the 4 #s. Its similar to martingale, but slightly less.
For more indepth explanation of labby discussion please see last years thread. There are pages and pages of it and i hope not to clutter this years thread with the same talk.
Thanks
JMDComment -
I need a pretty "advanced" spread sheet i guess to see what Wallco's strategy comes out to because his strategy is based on -110 and not buying 3points. I would need to see if the 3points bought affected the win on A B or C.
I guess i could just check each team on covers.com and do it in a more tedious manner.
Let me know if you have last seasons results wallco. Appreciate it and maybe if we can get atleast 1 season back test a lot more will start following you. Its def. great idea though.Comment -
Are we doing the filter where it's a no play if the best player is out? Monta Ellis might not play today vs. the Suns. I'm probably going to play it anyway.
EDIT: Ellis is playing.Comment -
i hope ellis dedicates this game to his G-Ma and puts up 60ptsComment -
JMD if you check last years thread for the results per version (posted by Krzychu) you can see what bets would have won on A, B, and C. I think the record includes 3 points bought but its a good place to start. Only once last season did buying points avert a loss.Comment -
Dusty Diamond, your way can work if you don't add a second number to Line 2. You can add a number to the end of Line 1 for the A bet loss, and you can also bring a portion of it down one line if you want, but you'll want to add it onto the existing numbers. Don't add a number to the end of Line 2 as well.
However in my opinion the best way to do it is to keep the lines to themselves.Comment -
when posting plays it would be good if you mentioned which system they are based on, just sayin
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For everyone wanting a backtest on Wallco's method I did a quick backtest from last years record, the results are:
Version 1 results = +69.16 units
Version 2 results = +54.72 units
Version 3 results = +80.16 units
Net units won = +204.04
This is to win 1 unit on A, win net 3 units on B, and win net 5 units on C. Losses equate to -17.28 units. Keep in mind this is with 3 points bought. Meaning that there could be 1-2 more series losses then what was posted. Even with another loss per version taken into account, the total units won is still at ~152.2 , 2 losses more per version and your still at over 100 units at +100.36. Winning over 100 units with a total of 13 losses over all versions is pretty incredible.
The amount of gross units using this method is incredible, but unfortunately the losses take a toll on them, making net units roughly half of what it could be, but still a fantastic outcome nonetheless. I commend you Wallco, you probably weren't even trying, but you may have just created the greatest JM money management system I have ever seen.
Should be noted that this year there are obviously not nearly the amount of plays, so the outcome could look different and even go negative depending on how the season plays out.Last edited by thelimit0310; 01-02-12, 04:04 PM.Comment -
DustyDiamond, I'll just reiterate what JMD and thelimit have said, that is pretty much the basic rule of labbying, if you want the labby to be profitable, never add more than 1# after a loss.
Just a note on spreading the loss amount, you know from the shutout thread discussion that I love this idea, I worked this in my shutout labby and it worked great. What you need to do is add 1# to the assigned line and add a chosen percentage of the loss amount to the next line. So in your case, it might look like this:
$11 loss.
L1: 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 11
L2: 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
The added # stays on L1 and we move 40% from the loss onto L2 and average out the lines:
L1: 5-5-5-5-6.6 -> 5.32 - 5.32 - 5.32 - 5.32 - 5.32
L2: 5-5-5-5 (+4.4) -> 6.1 - 6.1 - 6.1 - 6.1
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