LTA's NBA Plays

[dlunc3]

ok... nomore scoring for gs would be great

[Catchn_Picks]

Come on Sac...you are at home..show some heart.

[SoxSide Irish]

Does anyone else hate Nate Robinson?

[jackdean33]

99-99 with 30 seconds left we are cashing the over , either it goes to ot or someone scores

[dlunc3]

99-99 with 30 seconds left we are cashing the over , either it goes to ot or someone scores

time for a gs ft to push on the over and a gs win


lets go sac.. end the game this possession

[Catchn_Picks]

let's be greedy and get them both

[Dmil]

Another LTA Winnah

[jackdean33]

time for a gs ft to push on the over and a gs win lets go sac.. end the game this possession

haha highly unlikely but stranger things have happened. over is home and sac looking good up 2

[SoxSide Irish]

Omg huge 100-99 gs would have been horrible

[br33ze]

Lta for president!

[Catchn_Picks]

one down and one to go

[jackdean33]

what a hit 3-1 for the day good work!

[Catchn_Picks]

Lta for president!

Better than any of the other candidates so far.

[jackdean33]

i was very reluctant in taking a philly game under 180 but it ended up nearly proving me to me why

[Catchn_Picks]

horrible 3 point by GS...horrible. He was wide open beyond the three.

wtf.

[Catchn_Picks]

overtime...pathetic fourth quarter by the kings.

[Roto97]

why the kings didn't just intentionally foul GS is perplexing? But looks like SAC picked up momentum in OT.

[Catchn_Picks]

why the kings didn't just intentionally foul GS is perplexing? But looks like SAC picked up momentum in OT.

I ask myself constantly why they won't foul with only two shots.

And yes, Kings coming on. On the verge or another great night by LTA.

[Catchn_Picks]

And that's a wrap.

Night after night. What a week. One of the best week of pure NBA handicapping I've seen in a long while.

Not just because you won so many games. But that you showed the reasons that we should win before the games began.

A bit clairvoyant.

Great job and thank you.

[notoriouz]

I have been following your thread for a while before I joined this forum. I enjoy your analysis of each game and how you wait until you can get the best number possible for your pick. Your a great handicapper and I am grateful that you share your picks to the rest of us

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/4/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +1.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

63 - 48 = +15.75x

Onto Super Bowl Sunday....

[Mooks]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/4/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +1.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

63 - 48 = +15.75x

Onto Super Bowl Sunday....

[Sixla]

great night LTA, you're hot right now, keep it going!! Looking forward to see what u got next!

[dlunc3]

good to see great things in this thread.. you deserve this run LTA

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/5/11

Play #1

Grizzlies (+5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I may have a play on the total as well if I can get a decent number. For now, I am going to lock up my play on Memphis now just in case there's an overnight move. Pinny just started juicing Memphis +4.5 at -109, which can indicate a move to +4 is not far behind. Memphis is probably in a slightly worse fatigue spot, considering they will be playing their 3rd game in four days, but they are coming off a day of rest after losing a hard fought game to OKC. This is an early game on Super Bowl Sunday and Memphis knows everyone will be watching. Despite Hollins running Gay and Gasol into the ground by playing them 40 minutes night after night, I still expect Memphis to come out with plenty of energy. Memphis plays at the faster PACE and their game is highly dependent on the turnover/transition game. Well, this presents a good matchup for Memphis because Boston ranks 28th in TOV% while Memphis ranks #1 in OTOV%, which is a huge advantage that should lend itself to some easy turnover-based baskets for Memphis. Even though Memphis doesn't defend the perimeter as well as they should and Boston will have all their horses healthy with Pierce, Rondo, Garnett and Allen all playing, Memphis' dominance in the paint should prove to be the difference. Memphis ranks top 10 in both offense and defense in the paint, while Boston is in the bottom 10 of those same categories. Memphis has played well in Boston in the past winning games outright as dogs in both of the past two years, so their will be no intimidation factor from playing in the "Garden." I have Memphis set at +3 and I'm going to buy the hook to ensure myself a push on a final score of 5. I don't recommend paying -120 often -- only in rare circumstances --- and this is one of those circumstances for me. I have actually fared quite well employing this strategy a handful of times this season and it has already paid off with one push, 3 wins and 1 loss. Therefore, I'm not against buying the hook because I have already saved money doing so. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

[lakerboy]

Why would you pay 10 cents for half a point? 18 cents according to pinny whom you follow alot.

[Love The Action]

Why would you pay 10 cents for half a point? 18 cents according to pinny whom you follow alot.

Because I don't subscribe to the blanket concept that buying points in basketball is a complete waste. Rather, I believe that each situation is different and you must be able to adapt. Now, under most circumstances, paying -120 is in the NBA is -ev (and I would also deem this play -ev at the current line), however, for practical purposes I will make that sacrifice when I feel it wise. For me, this is one of those times that I feel the -120 is worth it.

As I mentioned in my writeup, the major weakness Memphis faces in this game is its poor perimeter defense. Considering Boston's excellent outside shooting -- and particularly from behind the arc -- I do not discount the possibility of a last second three pointer pushing this spread to 5 from the key number of 2. That is precisely why all the +5's were bought up immediately upon the open.

I'm not claiming that paying -120 is a successful long term strategy were you to pay such a price on a consistent basis. However, much like anything else, if you can pick your spots correctly, it can actually be profitable. Good luck on your Super Bowl Sunday plays.

[lakerboy]

I am not gonna make an argument in your thread since you and i have always been on good terms but -120 is not profitable long term but i understand your thought process. i just think you can get mem +5 at -110 soon.

[Love The Action]

I am not gonna make an argument in your thread since you and i have always been on good terms but -120 is not profitable long term but i understand your thought process. i just think you can get mem +5 at -110 soon.

Did you not read what I wrote? I never said it was a profitable long term strategy. In fact, I said the exact opposite. However, employing such a strategy in rare spots can be prudent. The only caveat is that you need to be able to discern an edge at a higher percentage in those rare spots.

If you believe that the line will move in Boston's favor tomorrow morning, I do not agree. Certainly possible, but I don't see it and that is why I locked it in now rather than wait. The Pinny move to -109 at +4.5 is indicative of an imminent move to +4 rather than to +5. I would rather ensure myself the number I desire in this particular spot for the reasons mentioned above rather than depend on a line move that may never materialize.

[lakerboy]

pinny has -102 on mem right now. pinny plays the penny moves all the time. do you think the pinny move on a few pennies decides the overall move this early?

[No coincidences]

Pinny's at +4.5 (-102) now. I think LB is right about it getting back to 5. We'll see.

[Love The Action]

pinny has -102 on mem right now. pinny plays the penny moves all the time. do you think the pinny move on a few pennies decides the overall move this early?

Nope. But with this game, I do not see the line ever going back to +5. My model has +3 based on a statistical analysis and there are no situational factors that should entice the more respected segment of the market toward Boston. Therefore, I expect the Memphis money to come in when the full limits open. Moreover, I'm going to be out early at a family party with an inability to watch the line all morning. Therefore, I want to make sure I get the number I wanted. Win or lose, a rare ten cent throw-away for security in a situation like this is not going to make or break my BR or my season. Like I said, it's not something I recommend, but something I will employ under rare circumstances.

Just saw you are on Memphis too....let's hope that hook never comes into play.

[Redscot]

Great stretch bro, it was inevitable with the way you go about your business. Hope you have a great super bowl Sunday with family and friends, this will be the youngster's first SB with his dad, with many more to come.

Just a thought for fellow thread followers......we had a great week here....don't go heavy on the SB because you have a few extra bucks and want the action, go small and enjoy the game! (unless of course you have a really strong feeling one way or the other). End of the day bol all

[Donnie Brasco]

Liking both unders today. Cant believe there are nba games on superbowl sunday.

[Catchn_Picks]

5D has juiced up -4.5 to -107...I am waiting to see if +5 could materialize. But, so far, that is the only major book doing this.